Der USA Bären-Thread

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end.

“The odds are that we flatten out, even though earnings are doing very well,” Greenspan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the equity market. That flattening out will probably “put some sort of dull face” on the economy in 2010, he added.

Greenspan said he expects the economy to grow at a 3 percent to 4 percent annual pace in the next sixth months before slowing down. As a result, unemployment isn’t likely to decline much from last month’s 9.7 percent rate, he said. Even so, he doesn’t expect the economy to relapse into recession next year. ....
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAWaDzlGw0JI

www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/...-to-us-banking-crisis.html

schöne Zusammenfassung der Entwicklung der Finanzkrise

mit ihrem wechselhaften Inflations-Getöse (Jim Rogers in # 49848, teilweise Faber) oder Deflations-Warnungen (David Levy, Norbert Walter, teilweise Faber) sind nicht viel besser als die Daytrader. Der Unterschied ist der, dass die Daytrader und Automaten mehrmals täglich zwischen Depressions-Deflation und Hyper-Inflation hin und her "switchen" (# 49847), während etwa Faber zwei Wochen zum Umschalten braucht.

Der Markt ist völlig durchgedreht. Dies erklärt auch das Nebeneinander von Gold- und Aktien-Höchstständen.

Shark sieht dieses Hin und Her als Top-Signal:

Market Becoming Increasingly Polarized
By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
9/30/2009 4:44 PM EDT


This was some of the most chaotic market action we've had in a long time.

We were steady at the open even though the ADP jobs numbers was a bit disappointing, but then the Chicago PMI number came in soft, and we spiked down hard. It looked like we might be in for some steady selling, but the bulls found some support and then began to inch us slowly back up. The buying accelerated and squeezed the bears, who thought they finally might catch a break.

Before long, we had completely recaptured the early losses, but we stalled out near the highs and spiked back down a bit in the closing hour. The bulls didn't give up and bounced back up a little, and we ended the day just above the middle of the intraday trading range.

Obviously, this sort of action is extremely hard to navigate, especially if you used tight stops, but the bigger issue is: What does it mean? It was quite a heated battle, and we ended up with just some minor losses, but it is indicative of a market that is becoming increasingly polarized, and that is the sort of thing that indicates that a change in market character may be developing.

This market has had a tremendous amount of skeptics all the way up. Many folks just can't reconcile this buoyant action with their personal views of the economic situations. I'm one of those folks myself, but fighting the strength has been a big loser, and that is why we have dip-buying on every pullback. The skeptics figure they might as well hold their noses and jump in because the market is staying so strong.

Yesterday we had some mild indications that maybe things were ready to cool off. We failed to follow through on Monday's low volume bounce, and the buyers were lacking vigor. This morning it looked like they were really ready to crack, but the dip-buyers bailed the market out once again. There is a good case to be made that the end-of-the-quarter manipulation helped us to bounce, but it has been very dangerous to dismiss the bulls by calling them manipulative.

At this point, because we closed in the red, I'd say the bears have a slight edge, but I'm looking for the battle to continue without a really clear edge. We have some important economic data coming up that will trigger a move, but both sides are going to be ready to fade a move.

Stay vigilant, and we'll continue to look for opportunities, but in this environment, it is important to stay very flexible.

Da "der Markt" zurzeit Allen was zu Bieten hat, scheinen sich die jeweiligen Experten auf das zu konzentrieren, was sie eh schon immer glaubten. D. h. die Gold- und Rohstoff-Freaks wie Faber und Rogers glauben nun erst Recht - wie schon zuvor - an starke Inflation. Entsprechendes gilt unter umgekehrtem Vorzeichen für die Deflationsjünger.

Ernst nehmen kann man das nicht.

In beiden Fällen wird die a-priori-Erwartung der Scheuklappen-sondierten Realität übergestülpt.

Weiterer Verlauf: M-Doppeltop?

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in September, showing further signs that the labor market is improving.

 

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers fell to 66,404 last month, down 13 percent from 76,456 in August, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

September's layoff tally was 30 percent lower than the 95,094 job cuts during the same time last year. This brought the figure for the July-September quarter to 240,233, the lowest since the first quarter of 2008 and marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which job cuts declined from the year prior level.

But while the rate of layoffs has slowed, the cumulative umber of job cuts has climbed to 1.14 million for the period from January through September, well above the 763,090 during the same period a year earlier.

"The downward trend in planned job-cut announcements is certainly a sign that employers feel more optimistic about future business conditions," said Rick Cobb, the firm's executive vice president, in a statement.

"It could be a while before this increased confidence results in job creation, but we are going in the right direction," he said.

The ever struggling automotive sector led the job-cut tally with 22,114 in September, the largest monthly layoff count for the sector since April.

 

But while the automotive companies led the monthly job-cut count, they are not the leading industry to lose workers in the year to date.

Even though the federal government and municipalities have been one of the few employers creating jobs, they have also cut 155,602 jobs since January, including 7,563 for September.

State and local governments are "seeing their costs increase as more unemployed citizens rely on government sponsored safety-net programs," Cobb said.

But at the same time, their "income streams from income taxes, property taxes and corporate taxes are shrinking," he said.

Away from the heavy job cuts in the automotive sector and the federal government and municipalities, other sectors are improving.

Layoffs in the industrial goods sectors have slowed, with a third-quarter job-loss total of 13,664 compared to 60,332 in the first quarter.

Retailers cut fewer jobs, too, since the first quarter, with 9,724 layoffs between July and September that was 87 percent fewer than the 76,548 cut announced in the first three months of the year.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, government data showed on Thursday.

 

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 551,000 in the week ending Sept. 26 from a revised 534,000 in the previous week. Analysts polled by\ Reuters were expecting claims of 530,000, which would have been unchanged from the previously reported figure.

The four-week moving average of new claims fell to 548,000, the lowest since 547,000 reported in the week ending Jan. 24.

A Labor Department spokesman said there were no unusual factors affecting the latest week's data.

Continued claims of workers still collecting jobless aid after an initial week of benefits fell to 6.09 million in the week ending Sept. 19 from a revised 6.16 million in the prior week. Analysts were expecting continued claims to rise to 6.16 million.

A separate report showed planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell in September, showing further signs that the labor market is improving.

 

Planned job cuts announced by U.S. employers fell to 66,404 last month, down 13 percent from 76,456 in August, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

September's layoff tally was 30 percent lower than the 95,094 job cuts during the same time last year. This brought the figure for the July-September quarter to 240,233, the lowest since the first quarter of 2008 and marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which job cuts declined from the year prior level.

But while the rate of layoffs has slowed, the cumulative umber of job cuts has climbed to 1.14 million for the period from January through September, well above the 763,090 during the same period a year earlier.

"The downward trend in planned job-cut announcements is certainly a sign that employers feel more optimistic about future business conditions," said Rick Cobb, the firm's executive vice president, in a statement.

"It could be a while before this increased confidence results in job creation, but we are going in the right direction," he said.

The ever struggling automotive sector led the job-cut tally with 22,114 in September, the largest monthly layoff count for the sector since April.

But while the automotive companies led the monthly job-cut count, they are not the leading industry to lose workers in the year to date.

Even though the federal government and municipalities have been one of the few employers creating jobs, they have also cut 155,602 jobs since January, including 7,563 for September.

State and local governments are "seeing their costs increase as more unemployed citizens rely on government sponsored safety-net programs," Cobb said.

But at the same time, their "income streams from income taxes, property taxes and corporate taxes are shrinking," he said.

Away from the heavy job cuts in the automotive sector and the federal government and municipalities, other sectors are improving.

Layoffs in the industrial goods sectors have slowed, with a third-quarter job-loss total of 13,664 compared to 60,332 in the first quarter.

Retailers cut fewer jobs, too, since the first quarter, with 9,724 layoffs between July and September that was 87 percent fewer than the 76,548 cut announced in the first three months of the year.

Konjunkturdaten: Gut oder schlecht?

Die nun geringere Anzahl Beschäftigter hat leichte Lohnzuwächse verzeichnet. Gleichzeitig hat sich der Konsum im um 1,1% gesteigert. Die Tatsache dass die US-Abwrackprämie hier eine große Rolle gespielt hat, spielt keine Rolle.

Die eher schlechte Nachricht ist, dass die Anträge auf AL-Geld überproportional stark gestiegen sind - nämlich auf 551.000. Dies lässt den Rückschluss zu, dass die obige Ziffer - Konsumausgaben - wohl eher kreditbegünstigt erfolgte. Also steigende AL-Zahl, steigende Verschuldung und erhöhter Konsum. Ist das gut? Wohl kaum.

Die Schönrechnerei aber wird auch hier deutlich: Der Durchschnitt der letzten Monate wird genommen und da sieht es natürlich positiv (wie den sonst?) aus. Obwohl die Ziffer neuer Arbeitslosen gestiegen ist, fällt der Mehrmonatsdurchschnitt wiederholt. Ist doch klar - bei immer weniger Beschäftigten, kann doch die Anzahl der Entlassenen naturgemäß sinken. Warum der future daraufhin anspringt, dass erschließt sich mir noch nicht. Aber noch ist nicht aller Tage abend ;-))

Wenn die Einkommen um 0,2 % steigen und die Auslagen um 1,3 %, heißt das, dass 0,9 % weniger in der Tasche geblieben sind. Die Auslagen dürften gestiegen sein, weil Tanken teurer wurde und weil für die Abwrackprämie (Cash for clunkers) nicht vorhandenes Geld verpulvert wurde. Die Erstanträge stiegen, weil sich die Industrie trotzdem nicht erholt hat.

---

Die persönlichen Einkommen sind in den Vereinigten Staaten im August um 0,2 % gestiegen. Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg um 0,1 %. Im Vormonat waren die Einkommen um 0,2 % geklettert. Damit wurde der Vormonatswert von zuvor veröffentlichten 0 % nach oben revidiert.

Die persönlichen Auslagen sind in den USA im August um 1,3 % gestiegen. Erwartet wurde ein Anstieg im Bereich von 1,1 %. Im Vormonat waren die persönlichen Auslagen um 0,3 % gestiegen. Damit wurde der Vormonatswert von 0,2% nach oben revidiert.

Für Cash-for-Clunkers wurden Ersparnisse verplempert, da das Einkommen kaum stieg. Die Sparquote sank auf 3 %.

Oct. 1, 2009, 9:06 a.m. EDT ·
Spending soars to highest in eight years on 'clunkers'
Real disposable incomes off 0.2%, marking third monthly decline in a row

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spurred by government subsidies to buy cars, U.S. consumer spending soared 1.3% in August, the fastest increase since the post-Sept. 11 shopping binge of eight years ago, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Spending on durable goods rose 5.3% in August as auto sales surged on the government's "cash-for-clunkers" program.

The clunkers program accounted for most of the increase, the government said. The program, intended to get motorists to trade in older vehicles that are less fuel-efficient, ended in August, and most analysts expect that the boost in spending was a one-time event.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, consumers' spending rose 0.9% on the month, also the biggest gain since October 2001, when automakers slashed prices after the previous month's terrorist attacks in New York City and Arlington, Va.

Consumer prices for August rose 0.3% but were down 0.5% in the past year. Prices excluding food and energy rose 0.1%.

In the past year, these so-called core prices are up 1.3%, equating to the slowest core inflation rate since September 2001.

Meanwhile, personal incomes for August edged higher by 0.2%. After taxes and after adjusting for higher prices, real disposable incomes fell 0.2%, the third decline in a row.

Nominal incomes and spending gained a bit more than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for incomes to rise 0.1% and for spending to increase 1%.

In July, nominal incomes rose 0.2%, revised up by the government from a previous reading no change. Nominal spending rose 0.3% in July, unrevised.

With spending rising much faster than incomes, the savings rate fell back to 3% of disposable income in August, the lowest since October 2008.

Compensation of employees rose in August, up 0.2%. Wages and salaries increased 0.2% for the second month in a row, after having fallen every other month this year.

Incomes from assets fell 0.9%, while small-business income rose 0.5%, rental income showed 2.1% growth and income from transfer payments increased 0.6%.

Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 5.8% in August, with spending on nondurable goods increasing 1% to mark the first such gain since February, and spending on services rising by 0.2%, the biggest increase this year.

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...clunkers-program-2009-10-01-83100
 

Wenn es auf Ersparnisse in US-Dollar keine Zinsen gibt und die Core-Inflation über das Jahr um 1,3 % gestiegen ist, heißt dies, die Bevölkerung wurde um knapp 1,3 % "enteignet" - zum Wohle der Banken:

In the past year, these so-called core prices are up 1.3%....

wäre als Überschrift für # 49861 vielleicht passender.

Korrektur:  

In # 49859 muss es im ersten Satz heißen:

Wenn die Einkommen um 0,2 % steigen und die Auslagen um 1,3 %, heißt das, dass 1,1 % weniger in der Tasche geblieben sind.

01.10.2009 15:19

Die Unterhosenverkäufe in den USA gehen zurück. Ein schlechtes Zeichen für die Erholung der Wirtschaft: Sparen Männer bei der Unterwäsche, ist die Krise nicht vorbei.

www.cash.ch/news/front/...ex_verheisst_nichts_gutes-832288-449

Robert Marcin; street.com CC
Economic News, Speculation
10/1/2009 9:34 AM EDT

The claims numbers is a big disappointment especailly considering the lack of hiring. New mass layoff intentions spiked a couple of days ago. Real income dropped for the third month in a row as unemployment and compensation drops hit workers. The savings rate dropped back to 3% on the clunkers program.

With the consumer tapped out and underemployed, and a large oversupply of real estate and industrial capacity, it's hard to imagine how a normal economic recovery gains traction, even with infinite intervention.

I know, everyone says that at the beginning of most recoveries, but this time, our ratios are more imbalanced than ever. Investors keep ignoring the recent sloppy economic data. The rally is powerful and has them more confident of the recovery, yet current conditions poll very poorly in the surveys. It's getting interesting.

CIT is a good example of the speculative lust for stocks out there. It traded for $2 on the reports the stock probably would be worthless.

 

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum ISM Index des verarbeitenden Gewerbes (ISM Manufacturing Index) aus den USA für September 2009

Der US-amerikanische ISM Index notiert im September bei 52,6. Erwartet wurde er im Bereich 54 bis 55,7 %. Im Vormonat hatte der Index noch bei 52,9 % notiert.

weil vor allem die Industrie sonst im Sommer das Gas abnimmt...
          §
                                        §
10:30 U.S. natural gas inventoreis rise 64 Bcf last week
10:30 U.S. natural gas inventories hit new record high

"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end."

"The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 56 percent since its low for the year on March 9, an ascent that’s had a 'very positive' impact on the economy, Greenspan added."

... zwischen den Märkten und der Wirtschaft in selten klarer Weise, und zwar als Ursache-Wirkungsbeziehung in dem Sinne, dass die höheren Kurse positiv für die Wirtschaft sind.

Wir glaubten das ja auch zu sehen (Consumption wegen subjektivem Wealth-Effekt, Acquisitionswährung für Firmen, etc.) und hatten von daher FED/Treasury als explizit (im Gegensatz zu unbeabsichtigter Nebenwirkung) treibende Kraft hinter dem Aktienaufschwung gesehen.

Aber die Bemerkungen von Greenspan empfinde ich als ungewöhnlich klare Bestätigung dieses Sachverhaltes.

In diesem Zusammenhang wirken auch die bohrenden Fragen des Dem-Abgeordneten an den FED-Counsel ("nimmt die FED direkten EInfluss auf die Börsenkurse?") aus dem vorige Woche geposteten YouTube sehr natürlich (und auch das fast schon bestätigende elendige Ausweichen des FED-Mannes).

Ja, ja immer wieder amüsant, diese "Konjunkturdaten" - jetzt sind eben die Hausverkäufe (Achtung: Schwebend) an der Reihe. Wenn man auch den Leuten so ein Bonbon schenkt, die $8.000 tax credit, dann muß das ja genutzt werden. Die nächste "Bailing Out"-Runde wird eingeläutet.


Pending home sales up 7 months in a row; By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The pending home sales index rose 6.4% in August to the highest level since March 2007, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

The index - which tracks sales contracts signed on existing homes - has risen seven months in a row for the first time since the index was established in 2001, the industry trade group said.

The pending-home sales index has been much stronger than existing-home sales, which are recorded at the closing of the sale, usually a month or two after the sales contract is signed. The pending sales index has risen 19% since December, while closed sales are up about 8%, according to data from the real estate group.

"The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate agents.

"No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month," Yun said. The government is offering a subsidy for first-time buyers, but sales must close before Nov. 30 to qualify. It's taking about two months to close a deal after home goes under contract.

The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend or expand the homebuyer tax credit.

"Sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession," Yun said. "Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit."

First-time buyers accounted for about 43% of buyers in August, according to a survey conducted by Campbell Communications.

The NAR has estimated that about 2 million buyers will take advantage of the tax credit this year, with 350,000 additional sales resulting. The others would have bought a house without the subsidy.

CNBC "Factory sector cools a bit in September"

"No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month," Yun said. The government is offering a subsidy for first-time buyers, but sales must close before Nov. 30 to qualify. It's taking about two months to close a deal after a home goes under contract.

The real-estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend or expand the home-buyer tax credit. See related story on the rush to capitalize on the home-buyer tax credit.

"Sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession," Yun said. "Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit."

First-time buyers accounted for about 43% of buyers in August, according to a survey conducted by Campbell Communications.

The NAR has estimated that about 2 million buyers will take advantage of the tax credit this year, with 350,000 additional sales resulting. The others would have bought a house even without the subsidy.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...n-a-row-2009-10-01?dist=bigcharts

Sorry, hat sich überschnitten, weil ich noch einen "länglichen" Vorspann geschrieben hab ;-)

Die Zinsen auf 30-jährige US-Staatsanleihen scheinen im Sommer bei 4,75 % ausgetoppt zu haben. Aktuell sind sie bei 4,04 %. Der Trend deckt sich mit den Deflations-Befürchtungen Bill Gross, dem Manager des weltgrößten Bonds-Fonds (PIMCO), der wegen der drohenden Deflation vor Aktienanlagen gewarnt hatte.

Während ich dies schreibe, fällt der SP-500 unter die wichtige Unterstützung von 1040.

Handwerk beherrscht. Aktienmarkttiming ist nicht seine Stärke. Im Jahr 1996 hat er in einer leidenschafltichen Rede vor dem irrattionen Überschwang am Aktienmarkt gewarnt. Wir alle erinnern uns wie lange es noch dauerte bis die DotCom Blase platzte.
So weit ich mich erinnere war es AL der heute bereits einige Zeitlen zu Jim Rogers und Marc Faber geschrieben hat. Sicherlich haben diese Herren einen Sack voll Geld und auch ihre Daseinsberechtigung aber wissen wohin die Reise geht oder zuverlässige Prognosen sind dann doch mehr oder minder Glückssache.

Warten wir ab wie der heutige Tag ausgeht.

Permanent

Jetzt long Tchibo?

viel zu pessimistisch.
Die Firmen bauen derzeit in nie dagewesenen Tempo Arbeitsplätze ab und sparen so Unsummen von Geld, so dass die paar ALosen mehr, die als Konsumenten ausfallen, ja praktisch nicht ins Gewicht fallen.
An den glänzenden Q3 Zahlen wird also mehr als hart gearbeitet, und wen interessiert da schon ein fallender Umsatz. Wichtig ist, dass es mit dem Gewinn weiter aufwärts geht und das wirds, weil weiter Angestellte gefeuert werden. Solange also die monatliche AL-Rate nicht sinkt, ist alles in Butter!!