Der USA Bären-Thread

FED, FIVE CENTRAL BANKS MAY INJECT $360 BILLION INTO FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Defillibrator      

Ein Defillibrator ist ein Gerät zur Normalisierung des Herzrhythmus bei Kammerflimmern durch Elektroschock. Auch bei Muffensausen führt das Gerät zum raschen Abklingen der akuten Symptome, ohne indes therapeutisch wirksam zu sein.

Die Fed war bei AIG gegen Geld- und Stromausfall versichert.

mit verzweifelten Durchhalte-Parolen und Schöngerede!


Mehr braucht man wohl nicht dazu mehr sagen!

Die Entwicklung bei Gold hat in den vergangenen Tagen eine komplette Kehrtwende vollzogen. Nachdem die Marktteilnehmer erkannt hatten, dass die Flucht in den Dollar angesichts der „Chaos-Tage“ an der Wall Street wohl doch keine so gute Idee war, erinnerten sie sich wieder an Gold. Obwohl das Argument „sicherer Hafen“ in der jüngsten Vergangenheit ins Leere lief, vollzog der Markt einen massiven Stimmungsumschwung zugunsten von Gold, mit extremen Folgen für den Preis. Gestern zog der nächstfällige Gold-Future (September 2008) bei dünnen Umsätzen um 70,10 auf 846,60 Dollar (+9 Prozent). Auf Dollarbasis war dies der größte Goldgewinn aller Zeiten. Ähnlich positiv entwickelte sich der mit über 242.000 offenen Kontrakte am aktivsten gehandelte Dezember-Future. Er zog am Mittwoch um 70 auf 850,50 Dollar an. Am Donnerstag setzten sich die Panik-Käufe fort und der Kontrakt legte am Vormittag um weitere 18,80 auf 869,30 Dollar zu. Zeitweise kratzte er mit einem Tageshoch von 897,40 Dollar an der 900-Dollar-Marke. Innerhalb von zwei Handelstagen bewegte sich damit in einer Range von in der Spitze 120 Dollar. Das aktuelle Szenario spiegelt die Angst vor einem Systemzusammenbruch wider und man erinnert sich daran, dass Gold seit Jahrhunderten mehr oder weniger wertvoll war.

online.wsj.com/article/SB122168156315148901.html
darf man ausnahmsweise mal komplett lesen hier
Morgan Stanley sought shelter from the growing financial storm Wednesday, entering preliminary merger talks with Wachovia Corp. and other banks as a seventh straight decline in the company's share price sent the stock to its lowest level since 1998.......
At Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, two of the oldest and most successful investment banks, market confidence withered in the past 24 hours for firms that were once trusted and envied.

As employees stared at their trading screens and television sets, a sense of disbelief hung over people who had thought themselves largely insulated from credit-market fears. "I've lost more than half my net worth in a month," said one Goldman employee.

The perception hurting investment-bank shares is that they can no longer rely on jittery global markets to replenish the cash necessary to fund their trading and lending businesses. That has forced the companies' borrowing costs higher, which means, ultimately, it will likely become prohibitively expensive for them to fund their businesses.

Commercial banks such as Wachovia are perceived as more stable, creating strong incentive for investment banks to link up with them, as Merrill Lynch did earlier this week with Bank of America Corp. But even some retail banks are under attack, such as the large savings-and-loan Washington Mutual Inc., which was exploring its own deal Wednesday with several other banks. WaMu has received expressions of interest from Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc. and other large banks, including one based outside the U.S., according to people familiar with the situation.

A spokeswoman for Morgan Stanley said that the firm is "focused on solutions" to address the falling stock price. Wachovia declined to comment.

As much as Morgan Stanley is suffering, Wachovia faces its own uncertain future. Saddled with a mountain of troubled adjustable-rate mortgages inherited through its 2006 takeover of Golden West Financial Corp., Wachovia has seen its financial condition weaken and its stock price plunge. After the disastrous Golden West acquisition, few Wachovia shareholders are likely to relish the idea of another huge deal, particularly one with another battered financial institution.

Morgan Stanley is also exploring preliminary tie-ups with a range of other banks around the globe, say people familiar with the matter. Morgan Stanley may well remain independent, but if a deal were struck it could come with the likes of HSBC Holdings PLC of the U.K., Banco Santander SA of Spain, Japan's Nomura Holdings Inc., a Chinese financial institution or a domestic partner such as Bank of New York Mellon Corp., say the people familiar with the matter.............The two firms- GS and MS- didn't discuss a merger but focused instead on how to stop short sellers betting on a decline in Goldman and Morgan shares, people familiar with the matter said.

FTD
Verhalten beim Börsensturz
Was Kleinanleger beachten sollten
von Maria Marquart

www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/...chten-sollten/414987.html

Zusammenfassung: Ruhe bewahren ist die erste Bürgerpflicht. Wenn Sie den großen Lichtblitz sehen, sofort eine Aktentasche über den Kopf halten und unter einem festen Tisch (Küchentisch, Schreibtisch) Zuflucht suchen, um Verletzungen durch abstürzende Trümmerteile (Zimmerdecke usw.) zu vermeiden. Zur Nervenschonung 18 Monate lang nicht ins Depot sehen und den Radioempfang auf Staumeldungen beschränken. Das FTD-Abo kündigen und den Briefkasten zunageln. Vorsorgliche Anleger überprüfen bereits im Vorfeld die Haltbarkeitsdaten ihrer Konservendosen.

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd9aa390-84d6-11dd-b148-0000779fd18c.html
schreibt Kenneth Rogoff heute in der Finacial Times
.......can this extraordinary vote of confidence in the dollar last? Perhaps, but as investors step back and look at the deep wounds of America’s flagship financial sector, the public and private sector’s massive borrowing needs, and the looming uncertainty of the November presidential elections, it is hard to believe that the dollar will continue to stand its ground as the crisis continues to deepen and unfold.

It is true that the US government has very deep pockets. Privately held US government debt was under $4,400bn at the end of 2007, representing less than 32 per cent of gross domestic product. This is roughly half the debt burden carried by most European countries, and an even smaller fraction of Japan’s debt levels. It is also true that despite the increasingly tough stance of US regulators, the financial crisis has probably already added at most $200bn-$300bn to net debt, taking into account the likely losses on nationalising the mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the costs of the $29bn March bail-out of investment bank Bear Stearns, the potential fallout from the various junk collateral the Federal Reserve has taken on to its balance sheet in the last few months, and finally, Wednesday’s $85bn bail-out of the insurance giant AIG.Were the financial crisis to end today, the costs would be painful but manageable, roughly equivalent to the cost of another year in Iraq. Unfortunately, however, the financial crisis is far from over, and it is hard to imagine how the US government is going to succeed in creating a firewall against further contagion without spending five to 10 times more than it has already, that is, an amount closer to $1,000bn to $2,000bn. ...
....It is hard to predict exactly how and when the mega-bail-out will evolve. At some point, we are likely to see a broadening and deepening of deposit insurance, much as the UK did in the case of Northern Rock. Probably, at some point, the government will aim to have a better established algorithm for making bridge loans and for triggering the effective liquidation of troubled firms and assets, although the task is far more difficult than was the case in the 1980s, when the Resolution Trust Corporation was formed to help clean up the saving and loan mess.

Of course, there also needs to be better regulation. It is incredible that the transparency-challenged credit default swap market was allowed to swell to a notional value of $6,200bn during 2008 even as it became obvious that any collapse of this market could lead to an even bigger mess than the fallout from subprime mortgage debt. ......It may prove to be possible to fix the system for far less than $1,000bn- $2,000bn. The tough stance taken by regulators this past weekend with the investment banks Lehman and Merrill Lynch certainly helps.

Yet I fear that the American political system will ultimately drive the cost of saving the financial system well up into that higher territory.

A large expansion in debt will impose enormous fiscal costs on the US, ultimately hitting growth through a combination of higher taxes and lower spending. It will certainly make it harder for the US to maintain its military dominance, which has been one of the linchpins of the dollar.

The shrinking financial system will also undermine another central foundation of the strength of the US economy. And it is hard to see how the central bank will be able to resist a period of allowing elevated levels of inflation, as this offers a convenient way for the US to deflate the mounting cost of its private and public debts...........
The writer is professor of economics at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund

                   

28411. Waren Wawidu und ich denn die Einzigen

Anti Lemming

17.09.08 23:04

   

hier, die mit einem Bruch der 1200-Marke im SPX und anschließendem Abverkauf gerechnet hatten? Hier meine Postings, in denen ich den bevorstehenden Bruch vermutete:

---

Nein AL,

 

 

ihr wart nicht die Einzigen:  http://www.ariva.de/...klisch_shorten_t283343?pnr=4726856#jump4726856

Habe heute morgen in mein Depot geguckt und ... WOW

 

 

 

 

sollten wir uns vielleicht Gedanken machen, wie das in einem Jahr (vin mir auch aus länger) und vielleicht auch bis dahin aussieht;
jemand konkrete Vorstellungen (Wo ist das nächste Tief, wo das finale Tief, etc.) ?

Washington Mutual Begins Auction to Sell ItselfBUSINESS BIZ COMPANIES MARKETSBy Eric Dash, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Michael J. de la MercedThe New York TimesThe New York Times| 17 Sep 2008 | 04:36 PM ET

Washington Mutual, the struggling savings and loan, has put itself up for auction, people briefed on the matter said Wednesday.

The unsurprising announcement comes as the bank, which has suffered badly from losses on mortgages it had made, continues to stumble. Shares in Washington Mutual fell nearly 10 percent on Wednesday to $2.09; they have plunged 94 percent over the last 12 months. This week alone, investors have been frightened by Standard & Poor’s cutting of the bank’s debt rating to junk.

 

Goldman Sachs , which Washington Mutual has hired, started the auction several days ago, these people said. Among the potential bidders that Goldman has talked to are Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase and HSBC.

TPG, the private equity firm that led a $7 billion cash injection into Washington Mutual in April, said Wednesday afternoon that it would waive its right to be compensated if the bank sold more shares to raise capital. “Our goal is to maximize the bank’s flexibility in this difficult market environment,” TPG said in a statement.

 

The April deal gave the investing group roughly 822 million new shares, diluting existing shareholders by nearly 50 percent. TPG bought shares for roughly $8.75 each. Those shares have since fallen to $2.14 a share, meaning that the value of the investor group’s holdings at Tuesday’s close had declined 75.5 percent.

While the bank has a strong deposit base, the uncertainty of the markets and the increasingly poor housing market have increased concerns about Washington Mutual’s outlook. The bank plunged into the option adjustable rate mortgage business.

14,30 Erstanträge AL-Hilfe
16,00 Phil. FED Index
16,00 Frühinidikatoren

am morgigen Tage stehen keine Daten zur Publikation.

Während die Frühindikatoren einen Dip zeigen dürften (Konsensschätzung -0,2), könnte der Phil. INdex "positiv überraschen". Eine technische Reaktion am heutigen Tage ist gar nicht mal so unwahrscheinlich.

Der morgige Tag, als "tripple-witch sabbath", birgt die eine oder andere Überraschung. Und hier könnte es zu einem deutlichen Trendwechsel kommen.

Fazit-Positionierung:
Shortpositionen neu: Fehlanzeige
Long - vielleicht nach den Konjunkturdaten
Am Besten aber keine Engagements!    

Und im CDS/Derivate-Markt - der inzwischen auf das Volumen des Welt-BIP hochgeschnellt ist - blickt eh keiner mehr durch. Wenn dort ein Domino-Effekt einsetzt, wie wie ihn bei den Housing-Derivaten (CDOs) ja bereits gesehen haben (= Auslöser der Subprime-Krise), dann wäre eine zweite Große Depression nicht nur möglich, sondern sogar wahrscheinlich. Heute bliebe sie nicht auf USA beschränkt, es entstünde eine schwere Weltwirtschaftskrise. Erste Anzeichen dieses Domino-Effekts bei den Banken konnte man in den letzten Tagen bereits beobachten. Vier der fünf großen US-Broker sind bereits von der Bildfläche verschwunden, einzig Goldman-Sachs zockt noch unverdrossen vor sich hin (aktuell machen die Jungs wieder in long Öl/Gold/Euro).

Zwar kann man behaupten, solche Überlegen seien "übertrieben schwarzmalerisch", aber das Gegenteil, dass "Alles gut wird", lässt sich ebensowenig beweisen bzw. schlüssig vorhersagen.

So bleiben Prognosen für 2009 und 2010 wohl im Wesentlichen Bauchmeinungen, die den jeweiligen Grundüberzeugung der Befragten entsprechen.

Bullen (Wall-Street-Gesundbeter, Fisher, Libuda) sehen ein baldiges Ende der Krise und in 2009 DOW-Anstiege bis 15.000.

Bären wie ich [und Ritholtz, Roubini, Münchau (FTD)] sehen eine weitere jahrelange Krise, die erst abgeschlossen ist, wenn der "Big Unwind" des in den vergangengen Jahrzehnten aufgetürmten "Global leverage" komplett abgewickelt ist. Der Weg dorthin wird steinig und schmerhaft sein, und ihn werden noch zahlreiche Bankrott-Leichen säumen - nicht nur Finanzinstitute, sondern auch Firmen wie die US-Autobauer. Die großen US-Indizes könnten sich mMn ab den Höchstständen Ende 2007 noch gut halbieren. Gevatter DAX, ein altbekannter Hysteriker, könnte sich auch gut vierteln (wie 2003). In welchem Zeitrahmen das geschieht, bleibt ein Ratespiel. Vielleicht sehen wir mittelfristig trade-bare Zwischentiefs (mit einer mindestens 12 Monate lagen Anschluss-Rallye) erst im Herbst 2009 oder 2010. Vielleicht kommt das Schlußverkaufstief schon diesen Herbst. Niemand weiß es vorher.

Hinterher haben werden es dann auch viele Analysten bereits vorher gewusst haben. Der Trick ist, seine Meinung häufig zu ändern und mal sehr bärisch und mal sehr bullisch zu sein. In zwei Jahren kramt man dann diejenigen Analysen raus, die der realen Entwicklung am besten entsprachen.

danke für Deine Einschätzung

Goldman's and Morgan's Crisis of Confidence
Dan Freed - Street.com

...

In the current frenzied environment, however, that confidence could disappear in a few hours. One institution could call off its bet and ask for its money back, causing another to worry, creating a domino effect. This type of institutional bank run -- or the increasing likelihood of it occurring -- is precisely what helped drive Morgan Stanley's and Goldman's weaker and smaller competitors to sell themselves or file for bankruptcy.
...

When five giant investment banks worth hundreds of billions of dollars and which have been around for generations become four, and then whittled to two virtually overnight, it is only logical for investors to wonder about whether the ones left standing will meet the same fate. Because confidence is so important to investment banks, that mere wondering is enough to start a snowball rolling that -- in this fragile environment -- can quickly become an avalanche.

Kompletter Text: www.thestreet.com/print/story/10437923.html

Der angehängte Chart benötigt wohl keine Erläuterung, außer vielleicht dieser: aktueller Preis 875 $.

Pros Predict: Dow 8,000, Gold $1,500 & MoreSTOCKS, GOLD, MARKETS, BANKS, BONDSBy CNBC.comCNBC.com| 18 Sep 2008 | 06:37 AM ET

Global stock markets are enduring one of the worst periods of uncertainty in their history as the financial sector faces one crisis after another.

 

Morgan Stanley is the latest investment bank to spook investors as it scrambles for cash in an attempt to remain one of the few survivors on Wall Street.

Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are under conservatorship and Merrill Lynch is now part of Bank of America .

With stocks tanking and a flight to safety gaining momentum, here's what global analysts and strategist predict for the stock, commodity and bond markets:

Dow to Fall to 8,000 in Next Month: Analyst

The Dow's break below another support line on Wednesday indicates more bad news for the index over the coming weeks, Edward Loef from Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers said Thursday, adding that another selloff is in the making.

Gold Could Hit $1,500 and Beyond

The current gold prices are amazingly cheap, presenting an outstanding opportunity for long-term investors, opines Aaron Smith, MD at Superfund Financial. He tells CNBC's Maura Fogarty & Sri Jegarajah that gold can hit $1,500/oz in the next 2 to 3 years.

FTSE Could Sink to 4,600

The FTSE-100 is in a classic downtrend and could be heading as low as 4,600 points, Clive Lambert from FuturesTechs told CNBC Wednesday.

Bearish on Palm Oil

Palm oil prices could fall another 12% by year-end, forecasts Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, equities analyst at ABN Amro Asia Securities (RBS). He explains his bleak outlook to Aaron Smith of Superfund Financial & CNBC's Maura Fogarty.

HSI Might Fall Below 17,000

The Hang Seng Index could fall below the 17,000 mark by this week, predicts Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities. He tells CNBC's Emily Chan the sell-off in financials will continue Thursday.

Gestern und heute habe ich damit begonnen, Shortposis auf VOW aufzubauen. Noch sind die Emi-Prämien günstig.

Meanwhile, commercial bank borrowing at the discount window reached a record high in six of the last eight weeks. The Fed also injected $70 billion in one day (the most since the September 11th terrorist attacks) and the effective Fed Funds rate hit a record high of 4 percentage points above its target rate of 2%. These are all indications that banks are hoarding cash at record levels. When banks undergo this level of duress, they do not create loans for consumers to buy more houses and cars. They instead must hold on to cash as they seek to repair their balance sheets. This puts further pressure on asset prices and hence further pressure on bank assets.

I could go on and discuss the blowing out of credit spreads e.g. TED and LIBOR OIS spread, but it should be clear that both the financial sector and housing market are still very far from making a bottom. The real estate market--much like water seeks its own level--will eventually reach a point that reconciles the imbalance between household income and price. Once that level has been achieved, the financial industry can stabilize and the economy should regain its footing. In the meantime, we can only hope that those in the administration and at the Federal Reserve realize that in the end there is no such thing as a bailout. Merely placing distressed assets on the taxpayer's balance sheet is no panacea. In the long term markets will always prevail and the sooner we let them work the quicker we will find a resolution to this crisis.

Ergänzung wawidu:

oder die von TKA ein Witz?

Bin nun auch Short in Gold, da ich mit einer temporären Entspannung rechne. Zudem schreit der Jump gestern nach Korrektur.

Short 875
Stop 900

Ups, hätte ich dein Posting vorher gelesen, hätte ich Gold natürlich nicht geshortet. Frage: Aus welcher Mottenkiste hast du den Gruftie ausgegraben? Alter Trick: Wenn Panik, dann möglichst niedrige Kursziele (respektive hohe bei Gold) ausgeben, schon wirst du gedruckt. In der Hausse geht das Spielchen umgekehrt...

ist das Aufkommen niedriger Kursziele in den Indizes ein untrügliches Zeichen für das Ende einer Baisse. Doch gilt das nur für das massenhafte Aufkommen solcher Analysen, eine Schwalbe macht da noch keinen Sommer. Insofern ist noch viel Luft nach unten, "Dow 8000 next month" wird aber mit Sicherheit ein feuchter Bärentraum bleiben...

Du redest wieder zuviel von keinem Crash;
was das für Auswikungen hat, haben wir ja die letzten Tage gesehen ;-)

auf derivatecheck:

Die US-amerikanischen Frühindikatoren sind im August um 0,5 % gesunken. Erwartet wurde ein Rückgang in Höhe von 0,2 %. Im Vormonat war ein Minus in Höhe von 0,7 % verzeichnet worden. Damit wurde der Vormonatswert bestätigt.