The future of the non-Chinese rare earth market
Steve Mackowski
China wird seine schweren SE für seine eigene Produktion behalten. Will man Windturbinen und Hybrid-Autos braucht man Förderer wie Commerce Resources einer wird.
There will be ongoing imbalance in cerium and lanthanum, so expect some export volume. As for the other rare earth elements, China will continue to value add and will progressively consume all of its non-cerium, non-lanthanum REO domestically. It is also reasonable to expect the progressive need for import of REO, that is, until the Chinese R&D into REO recycling takes effect.
I want to summarize the China situation as it impacts on dysprosium. China is targeting its magnet technology to make the most effective use of its dysprosium. These super-magnets certainly will appear in off-shore wind turbines and may be targeted at the new age nuclear technology. But what is the non-China world doing re dysprosium? Answer: looking at R&D to engineer out dysprosium in magnets. It then becomes a good question, that if non-China removes or substitutes dysprosium what does it mean to budding REO hopefuls? I think we need to answer the technological implications first.
In the current magnet world, the high-value top-end magnet technology needs dysprosium in the magnets. With no dysprosium, wind turbines lose efficiency and effectiveness. They become more expensive to build and maintain. The result is second rate technology with second rate overall performance. The loss of performance particularly puts at risk the renewable energy goals of many developed countries. With no dysprosium, hybrid and electric vehicles lose efficiency and effectiveness. Again, the result is second rate technology with second rate overall performance. The loss of performance particularly puts at risk the energy efficiency and exhaust emission goals of those same developed countries. So before we can establish the scene for the REO hopefuls, before we can attempt to predict and understand the dysprosium-enabled technology users’ direction, we need to ask if our governments are serious in their targets for energy efficiency and environmental protection. I can only assume they are. If that is so then it is almost mandatory for our technology industries to base their future on dysprosium and its known benefits. The budding REO hopefuls are waiting for a signal so they can progress their projects to supply the essential technology enabling elements.
So Governments of the Western World, are you serious about your energy efficiency and environmental protection goals? If so, we would appreciate a little pressure on those technology development companies who seem to be sitting on their hands at the moment. Our position on the technology scale is at risk!
- See more at: investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/...et/#sthash.DQ15gwY5.dpuf