Calpine - interessanter Alternativ-Versorger

Portrait:
Calpine Corporation. The Group's principal activity is to generate electricity in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The Group generates revenue from three segments: Electric Generation and Marketing, Oil and Gas Production and Marketing and Corporate and Other Activities. It also develops, constructs, owns and operates power generation facilities and the sale of electricity and its by-product, thermal energy primarily in the form of steam. The Group also has 12 gas-fired projects and 1 project expansion currently under construction collectively having a net capacity of 7,685 MW. The California Department of Water Resources is one of the major customers of the Group. The Group sold Alvin South Field oil and gas assets and the specialty data center engineering business in 2003 and its 50% interest in the Lost Pines 1 Energy Center in 2004. On 23-Mar-2004, the Group acquired Calpine Cogeneration Company.

Und hier noch eine News:

Tokyo, Japan, Apr 15, 2005 (JCNN via COMTEX) -- Calpine Corporation of California and Mitsui & Co. (TSE: 8031) have jointly entered into a 20-year Clean Energy Supply Contract with the Ontario Power Authority to provide clean energy from the Greenfield Energy Centre, a new 1,005-megawatt natural gas fired power plant to be constructed by Greenfield Energy Centre, a partnership between Calpine and Mitsui. The new energy center supports the provincial government's efforts to replace older coal fired plants with clean, efficient gas fired generation that will minimize greenhouse gas and other emissions. The construction is expected to begin in December. The facility is slated to go into commercial operation in February 2008.

          §  

A portion of the proceeds will be used to reimburse Calpine for approximately $135 million of construction capital spent to date on the project and to repay $20 million of existing debt associated with equipment for the project. The balance of GE Commercial Finance Energy Financial Services'' commitment will be used to complete construction. Upon completion of construction, Calpine will lease the power plant from GE Commercial Finance EFS under a 25-year facility lease. Calpine also has an option to renew the lease for a 15-year term.

"The Fox Energy Center lease is another major milestone in advancing Calpine''s financing and liquidity-enhancing program," stated Calpine Chief Financial Officer Bob Kelly. "We appreciate the support of GE Commercial Finance EFS in creating an attractive, long-term lease for this new important Wisconsin energy resource."

In addition to the Fox Energy Center, Calpine operates more than 1,500 megawatts of electric generating capacity in the Wisconsin power market, under contract to utilities throughout the region.

Weisst du vielleicht wie hoch die Schulden sind und wie das Ergebnis für die nächsten Jahre geschätzt wird?

Eine Marktkapitalisierung von € 1 Mrd. klingt ja nicht schlecht, vor allem weil die meisten US-Aktien doch überbewertet erscheinen.

Since then, though, the independent power market has all but collapsed, and Calpine has had to resort to all but sitting under an overpass with a hand-written sign saying "will generate power for food" just to stay afloat.

Judging by the fourth quarter, things aren't getting easier any time soon. Fools can check out the release for the revenue and earnings, but I'll be delving into some other subjects that are equally important.

The company's spark spread (the difference between the price Calpine gets for power and the cost of the gas to produce that power) declined again in December to $21.36/MWh from $23.90 a year ago. Additionally, the company's capacity factor declined to 45.6% from 48.9% a year ago. Both of these are lower than the third quarter and mean that Calpine is producing less than half of the electricity that it could, while profiting less from that production. Yet the company continues to add to its generation capacity. Go figure.

What's more, Calpine was only about two-thirds successful in achieving its liquidity event targets for 2004. Although the company did complete $2.1 billion in liquidity-enhancing transactions, the original target had been more on the order of $3 billion. Liquidity is key to Calpine, since the company has a mammoth debt load ($18 billion in debt vs. $22.9 billion in total capitalization) and negative cash flow.

If there is any good news, it's that the power industry seems to be at or near a cyclical trough and conditions should begin to improve in 2006 and beyond. Of course, that won't do Calpine much good unless it can hold out that long. Oddly enough, Calpine is something of a weather play these days, since roughly 20% of California's power comes from hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest.

Given the ongoing drought in that area, there is a chance that there could be additional power shortages in Southern California this year. Should that happen, Calpine might just get enough juice to create a little breathing room for its debt load.

Any Fool ["Motley Fool" Webseiten-Besucher, A. L.)] looking at this stock needs to be completely aware of the challenges ahead. While it's true that success in the company's efforts to refinance its debt and hold on for a cyclical recovery would make the stock cheap at today's prices, it's equally true that the company could easily be bankrupt within a few years. Given ongoing declines in spark spread and capacity utilization, as well as difficulties in achieving liquidity events, I'd hold off until there are real signs of recovery at Calpine.

Leichtgläubiger: Hier noch die Konsens-Schätzung

Gewinn 2005: -0.79 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 15 Analysten
Gewinn 2006: -0,41 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 11 Analysten (Hoch: + 0,20/Tief: -1,30)

Wieviel Calpine verdient, hängt u. a. vom "spark spread" ab - das ist Differenz zwischen dem vom Kunden erzielten Strompreis und den Herstellungskosten für den Strom. Diese Gewinne sind letztes Jahr gefallen, es deutet sich jedoch, auch wegen des teureren Öls, eine Wende an:

Lehmann hat Calpine am 11.8.2004 von "Underweight" auf Equalweight" hochgestuft. Begründung: "Cites evidence that spark spreads may be 'climbing out of the trough'"
"Climbing out of the trough" heißt: Der Spark Spread kriecht aus dem zyklischen Tief nach oben.

Wegen der hohen Schulden - mit dem Geld wurden die vielen Kraftwerke gebaut - ist Calpine "highly leveraged" (hoher innerer Hebel): Dem großen Bestand an Kraftwerken steht relativ wenig Eigenkapital gegenüber. Läuft das Geschäft schlecht wie letztes Jahr, drücken die Schulden massiv auf den Kurs. Erhöhen sich jedoch die Gewinne (siehe Posting 6), kommt der hohe innere Hebel zum Tragen: Der Marktkapitalisierung von rund 1,3 Mrd. Dollar stehen ein Buchwert von 5,74 Mrd. Dollar und eine Gesamtkapitalisierung von 22,9 Mrd. Dollar gegenüber. Das Ebita liegt bei 622 Millionen Dollar. Das wäre dann etwa so, als würde jemand mit dem Zehnfachen seines Eigengeldes erfolgreich auf eine steigende Aktie setzen. Und der Energie-Markt ist weniger riskant, als er nach der Enron-Pleite (Enron hat sich mit Derivaten verspekuliert) erscheint. Freilich sollte man nicht sein ganzes Geld in einen solchen Titel stecken. Das macht man bei Optionen/Optionsscheinen ja auch nicht. Der Vorteil im Vergleich zu Optionen ist, dass es keinen Zeitwertverfall gibt (außer der Laden geht pleite).

Heute wurden offenbar von Shortsellern gezielt Pleitegerüchte gestreut. Calpine fiel daraufhin wie ein Stein von 2,45 Dollar auf 1,69 Dollar im Tief, erholte sich dann aber wieder bis auf über 2,00 Dollar. Dann wurde die Aktie vom Handel ausgesetzt.

Calpine hat daraufhin selbst zu den Gerüchten Stellung genommen und dementiert, dass sie Bankrott anmelden wollen. Hier die Erklärung:

Calpine Responds to False Market Rumors
FRIDAY, APRIL 22, 2005 2:32 PM

SAN JOSE, Calif., April 22, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Calpine Corporation (CPN) responds to trading pressure on the company's equity and bonds as a result of today's false market rumors:

"While it is not Calpine's policy to respond to market rumors, we feel compelled to comment today to assure the marketplace that these rumors are false. Calpine remains in compliance with its corporate and project indentures. Further, the company assures the market that it has no plans to file for bankruptcy."

"The company continues to move forward on its 2005 financial program focused on reducing corporate debt, enhancing liquidity, and strengthening its long-term contract portfolio."

A major power company, Calpine Corporation supplies customers and communities with electricity from clean, efficient, natural gas-fired and geothermal power plants. Calpine was founded in 1984. It is included in the S&P 500 Index and is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CPN. For more information, visit www.calpine.com.

Calpine ist wieder im Handel und steht jetzt auf 2,20 USD - für Kurzentschlossene eine Kaufgelegenheit. Vorteil: sämtliche Stopp-Loss bis runter zu 1,69 USD sind durch die Pleite-Lüge rausgewaschen. Das wird Shorter nun zum Covern nötigen.

"While it is not Calpine's policy to respond to market rumors, we feel compelled to comment today to assure the marketplace that these rumors are false," the company's statement read. "Calpine remains in compliance with its corporate and project indentures. Further, the company assures the market that it has no plans to file for bankruptcy."

Calpine's stock price, which has languished below $3 all month, fell more than 31 percent to hit $1.69 before Calpine issued its statement. After the statement, the stock recovered some of its losses but still closed down 27 cents, or 10.98 percent, at $2.19.

---------------------------------------

WALL STREET JOURNAL

California's Electricity Planners
Hope They're Ready for Summer

By REBECCA SMITH
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
April 13, 2005; Page D13

California officials are preparing for tight electricity supplies this summer, despite improvements that include several new power plants and the elimination of a major power-line bottleneck.

If summer temperatures are normal, no problem is expected. But if it's unusually hot, the organization responsible for electric-system reliability says there could be power shortages in Southern California that will require special intervention, including pleas to cut usage. In 2004, a strong economy created record electricity demand on seven occasions, but there were no electricity disruptions.

No matter how hot it gets this year, there won't be a repeat of 2000-01, when tight supplies and market manipulation spawned runaway prices and rolling blackouts. Since 2001, California has shifted most of its buying out of the spot market and into long-term contracts. The state is also protected by a federally mandated electricity price cap of $250 a megawatt hour in the spot market.

Tight conditions this year are being blamed on strong economic growth and a lack of hydropower available for import from the Pacific Northwest, where the snowpack as of April 1 was only 64% of normal.

"We're not swimming in megawatts but we're not looking at blackouts," said Stephanie McCorkle, spokeswoman for the California Independent System Operator, based in Folsom, Calif. The organization is conducting a test on April 26 to make sure it can deliver all the power that's under contract for summer. Statewide demand this year is growing at a 3.7% pace.

Prices for hydroelectricity from federal dams have been high -- $50 to $60 a megawatt hour this month, compared with as little as $10 in past years. This is the sixth year of low water for the Pacific Northwest, which traditionally helps California with electricity in the spring and summer and in return gets power from California in the fall and winter.

There has been unprecedented cooperation between California energy agencies this year to prepare the state. Joe Desmond, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's energy adviser, said the state has tried to plan for the worst but "you cannot plan to protect yourself against every possible contingency," such as a major forest fire knocking out a big power line in the middle of a heat storm.

By the summer of 2006, California's investor-owned utilities will be required to obtain more than enough power to meet their customers' needs. Meanwhile, funding for new power plants has declined. Calpine Corp. is expected to put two big new plants into service by the end of June, but supplies remain especially tight in the southern part of the state, where fewer new plants have been constructed.

"Power-plant retirements are also a concern," Mr. Desmond said at a California Assembly legislative hearing Monday, noting that 5,000 to 9,000 megawatts of capacity may be retired in the next few years.  

Worries about the company's condition apparently stemmed from an April 13 letter sent to Calpine's board by Harbert Distressed Investment Master Fund. The letter expressed concern that Calpine could soon violate the terms of a bond issue linked to the Saltend Energy Centre in the United Kingdom.

Calpine, which has about $18 billion in debt, has indicated it may sell the Saltend plant to raise much-needed cash.

If Calpine does that, the Harbert fund said, it might undermine the repayment of the bond issue, which is backed in part by the Saltend plant.

``We strongly suspect that the proceeds are intended to be used to repurchase or refinance Calpine debt, and that these transactions are part of an ongoing de facto liquidation and reorganization of Calpine,'' the letter said.

``We have serious and growing concerns over Calpine's solvency,'' the letter added, suggesting the sale could be ``in advance of a formal bankruptcy filing or out-of-court restructuring announcement.''

A day after the letter was sent, Calpine issued a news release saying it was in full compliance with all of its legal obligations related to Saltend. But given the rumors Friday, it issue a second statement more directly addressing the issue of bankruptcy.

``It's unfortunate,'' Calpine spokeswoman Katherine Potter said of the rumors.

She said federal rules require the company to be discreet about its finances until it reports its first-quarter earnings May 5, but she acknowledged Calpine has gone through a tough financial period recently.

In 2004, the company suffered its first yearly loss since going public in 1996.

The company is also burdened by about $18 billion in debt, and it recently warned investors in a regulatory filing that it doesn't expect to generate enough cash from operations to fund its debt obligations, construction plans and other business needs in 2005. In the March 31 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Calpine said it is exploring ways to make up for the shortfall, including possible asset sales.

Potter said some of the red ink stems from the company's various power-plant building projects, including the Metcalf Energy Center in San Jose, which is due to start operating in June. She added that the rising price of natural gas, which fuels many of Calpine's 92 power plants, has cut into profits.

Nonetheless, Potter said the company's plants are among the industry's most fuel-efficient. And with electricity demand expected to be substantial in California and some other states this summer, she said, the company has no need to entertain thoughts of bankruptcy.

Some industry analysts agree.

``We do not find these rumors to be credible,'' KDP Investment Advisors of Vermont declared in a report to investors Friday. ``Cash flow will remain weak,'' it warned, but ``liquidity looks adequate to carry the company through 2006.''

Maureen Howe, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets in Vancouver, said she also saw no reason to believe Calpine was close to filing for bankruptcy protection.

``A lot of people are very bullish'' about the energy market, which should help the company she said. ``They think power demand is going to increase, particularly in California.''

Calpine hat eine immense Short-Interest-Quote: 43,33 % aller Aktien sind short verkauft (siehe unten). Das gibt bei positiven News einen gigantischen Short-Squeeze.

Der Sell-Off am Freitag (kurzzeitig minus 30 %, Schlusskurs minus 10 %) hat nun alle alten Stopp-Loss-Order bis zum Intraday-Tief von 1,69 Dollar rausgewaschen. Short-Seller können also nun nicht mehr darauf hoffen, durch erneute Panikmache wie mit dem jüngsten Pleitegerücht Honig saugen zu können. Im Gegenteil hatte das Gerücht ja Freitag ein deutliches Dementi von Calpine zur Folge (Posting 9), auch Analysten und Wirtschaftsprüfer erklärten, bis Ende 2006 reiche die Liquidität (siehe Posting 12, unten fett). Wenn ich short wäre, würde ich mich jetzt jedenfalls eindecken. Der Schlusskurs am Freitag war 2,19 USD, fiel dann nachbörslich auf 2,12. Wenn die anderen Short-Seller das auch so sehen, bleibt ihnen gar nichts anderes übrig, als jetzt zu kaufen. Das könnte den Kurs nächste Woche stark nach oben treiben - und würde zugleich das Chartbild schönen (Anstieg mit hohem Volumen nach Kapitulationstief).

Quelle: WSJ
Short Interest
Total On 4/8/05: 232,727,000
Total Shares For Previous Month: 233,834,000
Short Interest Ratio 28
Short Interest as % of Public Float: 43.33%

nach dem Kapitulationstief am 12.4.05 (höchstes Downside-Volumen) folgte ein Anstieg von 1,40 bis 1,74 = 24 % in 8 Tagen.

Würde sich der Kurs in ähnlicher Weise bei Calpine entwickeln, könnte es einen Anstieg bis zum alten Widerstand bei 2,80 USD geben. Das wäre, bezogen auf den Schlusskurs am Freitag von 2,19, ein mögliches Plus von 27,8 %.

The company has borrowed heavily to fund an aggressive power-plant construction program and is regarded as highly leveraged, with current debt in excess of $18 billion on $27 billion worth of assets. A downturn in power markets in late 2001, followed by a tightening of credit in 2002, has been hard on the company. It scaled back on a plant-construction program and has successfully pushed its biggest debt maturities out to where it hopes market conditions will have improved. It operates a large fleet of newly built gas-fired power plants in 22 states and has another 11 plants under construction.

Calpine has $186 million of debt that must be repaid this year and another $264 million next year, both maturities that analysts believe it will be able to meet without difficulty. It has $1.2 billion in secured notes and $360 million in unsecured notes due in 2007 and $1.9 billion in unsecured notes in 2008 that are more problematic. "I'm not worried until then" said Chris Ellinghaus, an equity analyst at Williams Capital Group. He added: "Rumormongers were successful at killing the stock today. People are playing fast and furious with the truth."

Calpine bonds dropped as much as six points before rebounding late in the day with Calpine's 8 3/4% notes due 2013 unchanged at 72 bid, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Calpine's common stock tumbled by as much as 76 cents a share to $1.69 before trading was stopped temporarily. After Calpine issued its denunciation and trading resumed, the stock finished the day off 11%, or 27 cents, a share at $2.19. At its peak in 2001, Calpine shares traded as high as nearly $57.

Ich bekomme kein Feedback hier, was evtl. daran liegt, dass Calpine in Frankfurt nicht notiert ist (nur NYSE). Sofern das Feedback/Interesse auch weiterhin ausbleibt, werde ich meine Postings zu Calpine einstellen. Hier im Forum wird meist nur über deutsche bzw. europäische Nebenwerte berichtet. Chancen gibt es aber auch in USA, gerade im Energiebereich, der nach Enron übermäßig Prügel bezogen hat.

in diesem Board poste ich jetzt hier:

ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/...oard=NYSE%3ACPN&origsymbols=cpn

ein Messer vom Tisch...

In that period of time, I was able to buy a substantial amount at a very reasonable price. Should the price be driven down again, I will take the same steps as taken previously and buy even more. A lot of individuals have invested in Calpine who never waste time reading this message board. To those of you who do (and want real information, not lies), the following is basically what has occurred here:

1. The market makers in conjunction with some powerful financial forces (hedge funds, banks, bondholders, etc.) somehow put out a rumor of bankruptcy. The source, of course, will be very difficult to pin down. It didn't start here and the rumor had no real effect here.

2. Then, quite a few shares were sold into the market. The small investors who inhabit this board did not sell those shares. We don't have that many to sell all at once.

3. Then, obviously, the market makers collaborated assisting in dropping the price per share. This precipitated panic among some small investors (insignificant amount) but had the real effect of taking out stop-loss orders which some investors foolishly put on their accounts.

4. The timing of the drop and clearing out of stop-loss orders was precise. As I posted in 725103, It occurred when few would be watching to remove the stops to wait and see what was going to happen. The effect was to cause their shares to be sold into the market...exacerbating the drop.

5. Then, the significant drop in price below $2.00 per share hit the switch on margin call rules for many brokerages. Some have close to 100% margin requirements when the share price drops below $2.00 per share. In other words, one can NOT have any borrowed money in the shares. One must cover all margin. This effected a further sale of shares.

6. The margin call effect will linger for several days, creating very low prices on the shares. Someone is buying millions of shares at the low prices (short covering). Volume has approached 40 million shares for two days straight.

7. Bashers come on the board (multiple IDs, all-hours posting) to deliberately try to discourage anyone from buying shares (the amount would be insignificant, but have some effect nonetheless) as someone BIG needs to buy millions at the cheapest possible price.

8. A news story comes out (helped by contacts) mentioning some "unnamed" trader saying that traders are avoiding Calpine. This can not be substantiated, but adds to the uncertainty and fright of investors.

9. More disinformation will probably be put out within the next 2-3 days in hopes of maintaining the low share price. The tragedy of it all is that whoever orchestrated this thing took a lot of folks' shares with unethical practices.

10. Watch and see if the above (with minor additions) is not found to be the case over the long run. Have a nice evening and thanks to all.

Das bedeutet: Kursziel 1.350.
Bezogen auf das Top vom 31.12.2004 entspricht das einer Korrektur von 38%.
Übrigens sind wir dann wieder im Jahr 1997...

Sicher muß der Worst-Case nicht voll eintreffen. Und sicher werden die übrigen
Indizes nicht ebenso korrigieren. Die deutschen sowieso nicht, weil wir dann
Dax-KGVs von etwa 5-6 hätten. Spätestens bei 7-8 werden alle Unternehmen
aufgekauft, das läßt sich leicht nachrechnen.

Apropos Dax: ich habe erste Käufe in Dax-Titel gestartet. Ich bin nach reifli-
cher Abwägung zu dem Ergebnis gekommen, daß die Dax-Titel die derzeit welt-
weit mit Abstand interessantesten Werte sind. Innerdeutsch sind sie bislang
schlechter gelaufen als die Nebenwerte. Rechnet man die Bewertungen hoch,
sind Aufschläge von  mindestens 15% fällig. Diese sind noch nicht eingepreist.

Ein Titel wie die LH zum Beispiel hätte in den USA mindestens das Doppelte
wert. Die LH ist weltweit die beste Line, am besten gemanagt, mit den besten
Aussichten. Es ist ein Frage der Zeit, bis das eingepreist wird. Falls nicht,
wird LH weggekauft. Ich habe unter 10,- EURO gekauft.

Außerdem CONTI und TUI. Alle zum Abstauberlimit. Bei fallenden Kursen kaufe
ich alle 5% nach. Viel Risiko nach unten ist nicht, wegen der Dividenden, und
weil man sofort in Aufkaufregionen kommt bzw. schon ist. Alle drei sind offen-
bar bereits im Visier von milliardenschweren Investorengruppen, die sich gerne
die Filets aus dem Industrieland Deutschland herausschneiden wollen.

Dazu kommen Beimengungen spekulativer Art: Gold-, Silber- und Kupferminen,
die noch ganz am Anfang stehen, mit open End. Und eine polnische Telekom-
gesellschaft mit 500% Potantial fürs erste.

Auf meiner Kaufliste steht auch noch ein Hersteller von Bohrköpfen für Ölbohr-
maschinen. Wegen des hohen Ölpreises werden Neubohrungen zusehends profitabler.
Mit dieser AG kaufe ich nicht die Goldader, sondern den Schaufelanbieter.
Ich warte nur noch auf einen günstigen Einstieg.

Laß hören, was Dein Engagement in CLP macht. Und- viel Glück!

Apr 28, 2005 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- BUYINS.NET, www.buyins.net, announced today that these select companies have been on the NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE naked short threshold lists for 13 consecutive trading days: Calpine Corp (NYSE: CPN) and General Motors Corp (NYSE: GMS).
With 537 million shares in its float and 232.73 million shares declared short as of April 8th, the failure to deliver in shares of CPN has not been resolved and a buy-in is pending.
WWW.BUYINS.NET is a service designed to help bonafide shareholders of publicly traded US companies fight naked short selling. Naked short selling is the illegal act of short selling a stock when no affirmative determination has been made to locate shares of the stock to hypothecate in connection with the short sale. Buyins.net has built a proprietary database that uses Threshold list feeds from NASDAQ, AMEX and NYSE to generate detailed and useful information to combat the naked short selling problem. For the first time, actual trade by trade data is available to the public that shows the attempted size, actual size, price and average value of short sales in stocks that have been shorted and naked shorted. This information is valuable in determining the precise point at which short sellers go out-of-the-money and start losing on their short and naked short trades.

von iiifly:Here's a stock where in the future you'll say "I wish I bought it when it was at $1.38." Calpine was dogged by rumors about bankruptcy, with a short interest of 43% of the total shares outstanding - I think you can understand why some individuals would want this to be spread around. Besides, Calpine has a book value of over $8 per share. Calpine usually turns a profit in the 3rd summer quarter when it's power plants are all experiencing high utilization - so If you believe that we may have an especially hot summer - which would drive up the demand of electricity - then Calpine might be a good play. I don't see calpine going anywhere considering they continue to receive financing on their plants and continue to seek out new developments. Going long now.

Zu dem jetzigen Ausverkauf kommt es, weil Leute, die Calpine "auf Margin" (Depotbeleihung) gekauft haben, bei Kursen unter 2 Dollar (ab dem Kurs ist bei vielen US-Brokern eine Aktie nicht mehr "marginable") zu Zwangsverkäufen gezwungen wurden. Üblicherweise hat man nach dem Margin call drei Tage Zeit, entweder die Aktien zu verkaufen oder Geld nachzuschießen. Da vielen das Geld fehlt, mussten sie zwangsverkaufen. Diese Verkaufswelle sollte aber drei Tage nach dem ersten Margin Call (Dienstag) verebben, so dass nächste Woche wieder steigende Kurse möglich sind.

Zu den Fundamentals: Calpine hat 93 Kraftwerke mit insgesamt 30 Mio. Megawatt, die meisten sind mit Gas befeuert. Die Kraftwerke sind alle kürzlich gebaut und entsprechen dem neuesten Stand der Technik (40 % höhere Effizienz als herkömmliche). Der Wert aller dieser Anlage beträgt 26 Mrd. Dollar. Die Schulden Calpines liegen bei 18 Mrd. Dollar. So ergibt sich für die Aktien ein Netto-Asset-Wert von 26 - 18 = 8 Mrd. Dollar, macht bei 538 mio. Aktien einen inneren Wert von 8 Mrd/538 Mio = 14,86 Dollar. Würde Calpine liquidiert, so bliebe dieser Betrag - nach Abfindung sämtlicher Schuldner! - netto über. Folglich ist die Aktie mit 1,50 Dollar spottbillig. Anders als bei Dot.Coms und sonstigen Highflyern handelt es sich bei den Kraftwerke um werthaltige, existente Anlage - etwas völlig konkretes.

Das Problem Calpines sind die mit dem Öl drastisch gestiegenen Gas-Preise. Diese sind jedoch gerade wieder kräftig am Fallen (die Juni-Futures auf NG fielen diese Woche von 7,35 Dollar auf 6,60, charttechnisch wurde eine wichtige Unterstützungen nach unten durchbrochen, siehe Chart unten). Dies sollte Calpine finanziell stützen. Zweitens ist die diesjährige Schneedecke in den Rocky Mountains sehr dünn, so dass Kaliforniens Wasserkraftwerke, die normalerweise 20 % des Stromanteils liefern, den hohen Bedarf im Sommer nicht decken können. Drittens wird der Energiebedarf in Kalif. laut WSJ ab jetzt jährlich um 3,7 % steigen (Stromfresser wie Intel und AMD im Silicon Valley). Der Energiemarkt befindet sich an einem zyklischen Tiefpunkt und zieht gerade wieder an. Viertens gehen bereits nächste Woche zwei neue Kraftwerke Calpines "online": Sie werden Strom liefern, während bislang nur ihre Baukosten in die Bilanzen eingingen.

Fünftens hat Jim Cramer (Realmoney.com) in seiner Fernseh-Show Calpine bei 3 Dollar zum Verkauf empfohlen. Cramer gilt unter Insidern als Kontraindikator. Wer gegen ihn wettet, macht mehr Geld als diejenigen, die ihm folgen (sein kostenpflichtig zugängliches Musterdepot "Action Alert Plus" ist dick im Minus). In der Folge haben hundertausende Lemminge Calpine geshortet - 43,3 % des free floats ist short verkauft. Dies wäre das erste Mal in der Geschichte der Börse, dass die Masse recht behält. Nach den Zahlen nächsten Donnerstang (5. Mai) dürfte Calpine selbst dann steigen, wenn die Ergebnisse schlecht sind - aus demselben Grund, weshalb Apple trotz exzellenter Zahlen abschmierte. Bei Apple war es eine "Sell-the-good-news"-Reaktion, bei Calpine wird es eine "Buy-the-bad-news"-Reaktion der Shortseller geben, die auf 243 Mio. short verkauften Aktien sitzen. Wenn, wie Kicky schreibt, viele davon "naked shorts" sind, werden sie bei ihren Panikkäufen Probleme beim Eindecken bekommen. Es wird einen Mörder-Short-Squeeze geben, sobald klar wird, dass die Bankrott-Gerüchte Unsinn sind.

Explizit empfohlen wird Calpine von US-Fondmanagers David J. Williams (portfolio manager des Excelsior Value and Restructuring Fund). Er erklärte im Dezember im Interview mit "Business Week": "Everyone hates Calpine Corp., but I own it. The company is making progress with a big financial restructuring. If they just liquidated the company, you'd get $6 a share, and the stock's selling at $3.50."
Wenn dieses Argument bei 3,50 Dollar richtig war, so ist es bei 1,50 Dollar sicher nicht falscher.

Williams Fond hält 7.8 Mio. Calpine-Aktien. Wer seinen Empfehlungen im letzten Jahr folgte, machte 43 % Plus (Business Week: "...whose picks returned 43% this year".)

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                                        §
U.S. TRUST COMPANY N.A. 16,092,657  
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VANGUARD GROUP, INC. 14,509,520  
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COLLEGE RETIRE EQUITIES 13,923,595  
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CITIGROUP INC 7,281,854  
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DEUTSCHE BK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT  6,800,272

Die Pleite-Gerüchteküche verweist fleißig auf Enron, da waren ja damals auch alle "Großen" investiert und lagen bekanntlich alle falsch. Der Vergleich hinkt jedoch. Enron hat sich als selbsternannte Energiebörse mit Derivaten (Futures) verhoben, während Calpine nicht mit Futures handelt.

Zum Schluss noch ein Wort zu den Schulden: 18 Mrd. Dollar sind viel, aber General Motors hat seit vielen Jahren 300 Mrd. Schulden, ohne bislang daran zu zerbrechen - und dies, obwohl der KFZ-Markt viel zyklischer ist als der Energiemarkt. Deshalb sind z. B. EON oder RWE eine sicherere Anlage als DCX oder VW. Und bei Calpine stehen den 18 Mrd. Schulden immerhin fuer 26 Mrd. brandneue Assets gegenueber.

@Fuzzi: Selbstverständlich ist dies erst mal ein Zock bzw. Trade. Doch wenn die Gaspreise weiter fallen, könnte es auch ein Super-Turnaround werden. Sieh Dir die Aktien des Energieerzeugers Williams (WMB) an - die stiegen von 2 Dollar auf jetzt 17 Dollar (Hoch: 19).

Der Chart unten zeigt den Preis fuer Natural Gas in den letzten drei Monaten.

WMB ist auch Energieerzeuger. Die Aktien standen vor 2,5 Jahren ebenfalls bei 1,50 Dollar, jetzt bei 17. Das ist ueber 1000 % mehr!

In den letzten Tagen hat Bush angekündigt vermehrt auf Atomkraft zu sezten um den Energiepreis niedrig zu halten, meinst du nicht dass dies Calpine schaden könnte, da die ja grossteils auf Gas angewiesen sind?

Und dass Calpine zwar schreibt, dass man nicht vor hat Insolvenz anzumelden, dies aber nicht wirklich deutlich ausschliesst klingt auch nicht gerade berauschend.

Alles in allem auf jeden Fall sehr riskant!

Calpine liegt vorbörslich 18,6 % im Plus - bei 1,73 Dollar!
Der große Short-Squeeze hat begonnen.

Grund sind von Calpine "wegen der hohen Volatilität" vorzeitig bekanntgegebene Ergebnisse, die im Rahmen der Analysten-Erwartung liegen. Die Zahlen sollten
eigentlich erst am 5. Mai kommen.
          §
7:43am 04/29/05
          §
Calpine backs financial view due to trading volatility (CPN) By Michael Baron
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Calpine (CPN) Friday provided a financial update, saying its first-quarter results were in-line with expectations and that it remains on track to meet its earnings goal for 2005. The San Jose, Calif., power company said it issued the outlook due to recent volatility in the trading of its bonds and equities "triggered by false rumors in the market." The company sees a loss of about 38 cents a share in the first quarter and that it expects a loss according to generally accepted accounting principles of 80 to 90 cents a share for the full year. The stock closed Thursday at $1.45, down 18.5%.

EBITDA, as adjusted for non-cash and other charges, is expected to be approximately $240 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2005. For the year ended Dec. 31, 2005, Calpine is confirming that the company expects EBITDA, as adjusted for non-cash and other charges, to be in the range of $1.6-$1.7 billion.

The recent market activity in the capital markets has not impacted Calpine Energy Services' (CES) ability to manage its portfolio of assets. In addition, CES remains fully collateralized with most of its counterparties, and has not been forced to post any material margin over the past week directly with counterparties.

Although the company did not issue quarterly earnings guidance, pre-tax earnings for the three months ended March 31, 2005 were in-line with Calpine's internal estimates. Calpine is anticipating a fully-diluted loss per share of approximately $0.38 for the first quarter. The company expects to achieve its forecasted earnings for the year ending Dec. 31, 2005, with a GAAP loss per share remaining in the range of $0.80 - $0.90 based on indications that market spark spreads are remaining in-line with our earlier expectations.

Calpine will host a conference call to discuss its first quarter 2005 financial and operating results on Thursday, May 5, 2005, at 8:30 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time. Interested parties may access the teleconference via a web cast on Calpine's Investor Relations page, www.calpine.com, or by dialing 1- 888-603-6685 (1-706-634-1265 for international callers) at least five minutes before the start of the call. The call will be open to the public in a listen-only mode by telephone and web broadcast. A replay and transcript of the conference call will be available for 30 days on Calpine's Investor Relations page at www.calpine.com.

A major power company, Calpine Corporation supplies customers and communities with electricity from clean, efficient, natural gas-fired and geothermal power plants. Calpine owns, leases and operates integrated systems of plants in 21 U.S. states, three Canadian provinces and the United Kingdom. In 2004, Calpine delivered approximately 3.5% of all electricity consumed in the United States. Its customized products and services include wholesale and retail electricity, natural gas, gas turbine components and services, energy management, and a wide range of power plant engineering, construction and operations services. Calpine was founded in 1984. It is included in the S&P 500 Index and is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CPN. For more information, visit www.calpine.com .

902918 zeigt bei mir 1,17 Euro-ein Minus von 8%. Oder hab ich da was falsches?

Klick mal rechts neben diesem Posting auf den Ariva-Button "Kurse".
In New York konnten sich die Anfangsgewinne nicht halten (z. Z. 1,52).

Kurse per 29.04.05 - ca. 15:00

NY:         0,99 EURO
München: 1,25 EURO
Xetra:      0,80 EURO

Das heutige Aufwärts-Gap der Eröffnung wurde geschlossen: Kurs fiel von 1,65 auf 1,50, steigt seitdem aber wieder und steht jetzt auf 1,57 Dollar.

Fuzzi: 1,25 Euro (München) sind 1,62 Dollar.

Im Yahoo-Board schrieb heute jemand was Lustiges: Die großen Shorts hätten bei 2,50 Dollar das Bankrott-Gerücht gestreut, damit die kleinen Shorts auf den scheinbar fahrenden Zug aufspringen. Mit dieser Bären-Falle haben die großen Shorter den kleinen sozusagen ihren Kotzbeutel vorgehalten.

Dass die Öl- und Gas-Future um 3,5 bzw. 2 % gefallen sind, verstärkt den Short-Squeeze. Bislang wurde 23 Mio. Stücke in New York gehandelt. Es gibt aber 243 Mio. short verkaufte Calpine-Aktien. Die Rallye wird daher munter weiter laufen.

Hier ein interessantes Tool, dass Kaufinteresse von institutioneller Seite belegt

thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/...&i=3&hdate=&x=14&y=7

Der erste 1000-Prozent-Gewinner, den ich im Vergleich zu Calpine hier vorstellen möchte, ist der US-Versorger AES.

AES Corporation (The). The Group's principal activity is to generate and distribute electric power. The Group operates in four business segments: Contract Generation: Supplies wholesale electricity under long-term contracts for more than 75% of the Group's output.

Buchwert pro Aktie z. Z. 1,28 USD (Calpine: 10,68 USD)

Kurs von AES im Oktober 2002: 1,50 USD
Kurs von AES heute: 16,08 USD

Who really cares! Let the pumpers pump the bashers bash. In the end nothing anyone says or does here will affect the stock one bit. I was there with the big 7 back in the days of Enron collapse. Same stories! Demise, BK, etc etc...we even had the ferc too. So what happened? AES went from .90 to 18$ DYN from .56 to 7$, Williams from .75 to 19$ and on and on. This co is easy enough to figure out. The ceo will retire (he's around 75) there will be new infusion perhaps a new management team. Gas prices will taper off and a few sales later that looming debt will be gone. Then everyone will jump on the bandwagon at 6$ and in three years CPN will be trading in the 18-20$ range. Book value of 10.80 trading under 2$...you needen't be a rocket scientist to figure it's a steal at this price. Those who day trade it will look back and weep when they realize the 3-4 thousand they make today would have been worth 80-100,000 a few years down the road. So bash, pump all you want. I'm in over 6000 shares and adding with not a hint of worry.

Mag ja sein, dass Bush auf Atomkraft setzen will. Von der Planung eines neuen AKWs bis zu dessen Fertigstellung vergehen jedoch typischerweise 10 bis 20 Jahre. Die Krise bei US-Energieerzeugern ist zurzeit in erster Linie durch die hohen Energiepreise (Öl, Gas) verursacht. Diese Preise befinden sich jedoch im freien Fall. Allein gestern fielen die Öl-Futures um 4 % und die Gas-Futures um 2,5 %.

Atomkraftwerke lassen sich nun mal nicht über Nacht aus den Boden stampfen!

On April 22, trading in Calpine stock was briefly halted when rumors again pushed the stock down as low as $1.69 before the company put out a release reassuring investors it wasn't in default on any loan covenants. The stock closed that day at $2.19.

Christopher Ellinghaus, an equity analyst for Williams Capital Group, said that "normally an investor with a problem tries to work it out with the company privately and doesn't go around putting out press releases."

Calpine has said it doesn't have any intention or need to seek bankruptcy protection. It's the object of extensive short-selling interest, though, meaning that those investors stand to profit from drops in the stock, which may help to propel rumors.

Dass der Schwenk zur Atompolitik keine unmittelbaren Auswirkungen in der nächste Zeit zeigen wird ist mir klar, aber es ist ein Signal dafür, dass man die Energiekosten unbedingt tief halten will.

Trotz der momentanen Entspannung bei den Öl und Gaspreisen, die sicher noch weiter gehen wird, wird der Durchschnittspreis in den nächsten Jahren dennoch auf hohem Niveau bleiben. Da ein höherer Energiepreis bei niedrigeren Prokuktionskosten jedoch die einzige Möglichkeit für Calpine ist, den Turnaround zu schaffen, sehe ich trotz der momentanen Unterbewertung kein enormes Potential, da ja jedes Jahr beinahe 1 $/Aktie verbrannt wird und auch nicht ersichtlich ist wann die Gewinnschwelle erreicht werden kann, wobei die anziehenden Zinsen bei der hohen Verschuldung sicher nicht hilfreich sind.

Der Unterschied zu Alstom liegt eben darin, dass es bei Alstom ein hoffentlich einmaliger großer Fehler (Turbinen) war, der das ansonsten recht gut aufgestellte Unternehmen beinahe gekippt hätte, wobei sich Calpine einfach mit zuvielen Kraftwerken übernommen hat.

Calpine hat drei Möglichkeiten, die Finanzmisere zu meistern: durch höhere Einnahmen, niedrigere Kosten und/oder durch Verringerung der Schulden. Höhere Einnahmen kommen vom prognostizierten höheren Strombedarf (+ 3,7 % pro Jahr), von der Inbetriebnahme zweier gerade fertiggestellter Gaskraftwerke im Mai/Juni 2005 sowie von mangelndem Wasser für die kalifornischen Wasserkraftwerke wegen dünner Schneedecke in den Rocky Mountains. Auch ein heißer Sommer würde helfen. Auf die Kosten hat Calpine nicht allzuviel Einfluss (ob die Gaspreise nachhaltig fallen werden, wie es sich jetzt charttechnisch andeutet, muss sich erst noch zeigen). CPN könnte sich allerdings gegen höhere Gaspreise mit dem Kauf von Gas-Futures absichern. Die Schulden können durch Kraftwerksverkäufe (wie dem des modernen Gaskraftwerks in Saltend/England) abgebaut werden, es gibt mehrere Interessenten. Offenbar sollen mit dem Saltend-Verkaufserlös die im August fällig werdenden Wandelanleihen (High Tide III) ganz oder teilweise zurückgekauft werden. Evtl. werden diese Anleihen auch in ihrer Laufzeit verlängert. Das bisherge Schuldenmanagement bezeichnete US-Fondmanager David Williams (s. Post. 26) im Dezember als gut: "Everyone hates Calpine Corp., but I own it. The company is making progress with a big financial restructuring. If they just liquidated the company, you'd get $6 a share, and the stock's selling at $3.50." (Im Dezember stand Calpine bei 3,50, jetzt bei 1,80).

Wie du richtig geschrieben hast, wurden die 4 Mrd. bei Alstom in den Wind geschrieben und von den Aktionären bezahlt.  Und genau das ist eben der Unterschied, bei Alstom wurde dieses Kapitel mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit bereits erledigt und der Turnaround sollte dieses Jahr gelingen, wohingegen bei Calpine immer noch $ 1,00/Aktie/Jahr in den Wind geschrieben werden.

Wenn das noch 5-6 Jahre so weiter geht ist von dem grossen Wert auch nichts mehr übrig, da wäre es fast besser Calpine ginge jetzt in Insolvenz solange noch erhebliche Werte vorhanden sind.

Andererseits gibt es natürlich ein grosses Potenzial, dafür müssen aber die Schulden in den Griff bekommen werden. Bei einem guten Verkauf von einigen Kraftwerken würde die Aktie sicher sehr interessant.

Meiner Meinung nach ist das Risiko aber ungleich höher als es bei Alstom nach der lezten KE war.

Leichtgläubiger: Du kannst die Verluste nicht linear in die Zukunft hochrechnen mit 1$/Aktie/Jahr.

Die Konsens-Schätzungen lauten:

Gewinn 2005: -0.79 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 15 Analysten
Gewinn 2006: -0,41 Dollar/Aktie = Mittelwert von 11 Analysten (Hoch: + 0,20/Tief: -1,30)

Und da ist der jüngste Verfall der Gaspreise noch gar nicht mit enthalten. Es könnte gut sein, dass Calpine 2007 schon wieder schwarze Zahlen schreibt.

Vorbörslich steht Calpine heute bereits bei 1,90 Dollar. Die geplante Beschwerde bei der NYSE wegen der Bankrott-Lügen dürfte die Shorts weiter zum Covern treiben. Die Short-Quote hat sich nach der Rallye vom Freitag (+ 23 %) noch nicht wesentlich verändert - es gibt also noch jede Menge "willige Käufer", deren Kauf-Stopps oberhalb von 2 Dollar liegen dürften.

Immerhin 4 "strong buys", dagegen nur 1 "sell"

um nach meinem Nachkauf vom Freitag bei 1,47 USD wieder eine vernünftige Depotgewichtung (jetzt 5 %) zu haben.

Nur Schade bist zu früh rein.
Deine Postings haben meine Aufmerksamkeit auf diese Aktie gelenkt und ich habe den Absturz mitverfolgt um dann bei 1.65 einzusteigen.
Wie siehst Du den weiteren Verlauf?

Ich hab bei 1,47 nachgekauft und dann bei 2,01 teilverkauft, was meinen Schnitt auf 1,85 USD gebracht hat. Ich glaube, dass beim Kursniveau vor dem Pleitegerücht - also um 2,40 USD - erst mal ein Widerstand sitzt. Bevor der überwunden wird, sollte es eine technische Korrektur geben, die bis zurück auf 1,90 gehen könnte (dann würde ich nachkaufen). Ob die wirklich kommt, ist allerdings bei den vielen Shorts fraglich.

Die endgültigen Zahlen kommen am 5. Mai; die Ergebnisse vom letzten Freitag waren vorläufig. Dann wird auch entschieden, was mit der Wandelanleihe (Fälligkeit August 05) geschieht. Die Zahlen vom Freitag lagen unter den Analystenerwartungen. Analysten hatten mit einem Quartalsverlust von 0,28 Dollar gerechnet, tatsächlich lag er bei 0,38 Dollar. Dies könnte den Deckel auf dem Kurs halten. Entscheidend ist, wie sich in nächster Zeit der Preis für Natural Gas entwickelt, der sich synchron zum Ölpreis bewegt.

dass es für meine Analyse ansonsten kein positives Feedback (z. B. grüne Sterne) gegeben hat. Wer bei 1,47 kaufte - nachdem ich hier gepostet hatte, dass es kein Bankrott geben würde - hat innerhalb von vier Börsentagen immerhin bis zu 60 Prozent gemacht (raus für 2,35).

Einen anderen kann ich Dir leider nicht geben :(

Ein Blick auf dein Depot sollte dir doch Lob genug sein!

Aber das war schon wirklich eine gute Leistung und mit dem Nachkauf sehr konsequent verfolgt.

Ich wünsche dir, dass du den Absprung nicht versäumst, oder bist du schon raus?

danke, Ihr seid SOOOOO gut zu mir ;-)

Ich habe gestern alle Calpine für 2,35 Dollar verkauft - bis auf die, die meinem Gewinn entsprachen. Die lass ich jetzt einfach stehen (ca. 1,3 % meines Portfolios) - und spekuliere damit sozusagen auf Kosten des Hauses.

Falls Calpine noch einmal auf ca. 1,90 fällt, würde ich mehr dazukaufen.

und reite weiter auf der Welle.
Ich hab mich noch nicht entschieden ob ich die Zahlen abwarten soll oder nicht.

Kann man reiten die Welle, sie hat aber tiefe Täler. Gestern stieg Calpine bis 2,59 USD, weil offenbar viele Shorts die Kaufpanik gepackt hatte. Heute nach den Zahlen, die der Vorankündigung vom letzten Freitag entsprechen, geht es wieder drastisch bergab. z. Z. steht CPN auf 2,09. Da hat sich IMHO nur das Momentum umgekehrt, jetzt haben diejenigen, die bei 2,40 bis 2,50 wieder eingestiegen sind, Druck. Ich warte ab und gucke beim Fallen zu.

Calpine posts wider first quarter loss
By Stephanie I. Cohen, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:58 AM ET May 5, 2005  


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Calpine Corp. on Thursday posted a wider first quarter loss citing higher operating and interest expenses associated with new plants coming on line.

The merchant power generator reported a first quarter net loss of $168.7 million, or 38 cents a share, compared with a loss of $71.2 million, or 17 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Calpine just last week braced investors for the news in an updated financial outlook. The update failed to prevent a 5% fall in its shares at the open but they bounced back by midday to $2.23, down 5 cents or 2.2%.

"Traditionally, we experience seasonably low revenue ... during the first quarter," said Pete Cartwright, Calpine chief executive officer, in a statement.

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) reported a 9% increase in revenue in the first quarter to $2.21 billion, up from $2.03 billion a year earlier.

San Jose, California power provider operates a fleet of gas-fired and geothermal power plants in 21 states, Canada, and Britain.

One of the many merchant power businesses struggling in recent years amid an oversupplied market and high fuel costs, Calpine has been dogged by recent rumors of an impending bankruptcy.

During the three months ended March 31, 2005, Calpine's financial results were hurt by a $100.5 million increase in interest expenses, compared to the same period in 2004, the company said.

Calpine, one of many merchant power businesses struggling in recent years amid an oversupplied market and high fuel costs, has seen its shares hit hard in recent.

Persistent short-selling prompted the company to take the unusual step of issuing a statement to knock down what it called "reckless and unfounded rumors" that it was about to file for bankruptcy.

At the same time, Calpine requested the New York Stock Exchange open an investigation into recent trading of its stock.

Although Calpine managers made no promises for the future, it sounds as if they are at least willing to consider additional asset sales if the prices are right. That makes a lot of sense. Calpine is running at less than half of capacity on a companywide basis. If there are any redundant or non-strategic assets that can be converted to cash for debt repayment, that seems like a slam dunk to me.

In the meantime, owning Calpine shares these days will probably continue to be a lot like trying to drive on ice -- nail-biting, tough, and replete with the feeling that forces beyond your control are deciding your fate. While there are signs of improvement in the broader power market, Calpine has a long row to hoe to get its balance sheet in order and put the company in a position to report net profits to its owners.

At this point, Calpine looks like what I've always called a "binary stock" -- either it's going to recover and be all right, or it's heading to zero. Calpine clearly has assets with value, management is making progress on operating efficiency, and the company isn't in imminent danger of collapse. But that debt load is huge, and the market for independent power generation can be extremely volatile.

Investors with a nose for deep value and a very high tolerance for risk might want to take a sniff, but this is absolutely not a stock that belongs in everyone's portfolio today.

In a press release Tuesday, the power company said its natural gas assets are primarily located in the Sacramento Basin of California, South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the company is active in Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.

As of Dec. 31, Calpine had 389 billion cubic feet equivalent of proved gas reserves. Calpine's natural-gas land interests currently include 386,674 net developed and undeveloped acres and the company's assets currently produce about 90 million cubic feet equivalent per day from 607 net wells.

"Net proceeds from any sale of the natural gas assets would be used in accordance with Calpine's existing bond indentures," the company said.

In 2004, Calpine had revenue of $9.23 billion.

----------------------------------

Forbes.com
Junkyard Steals
John Dobosz, May 23, 2005, 4:45 PM ET

When newsmagazines start running covers proclaiming the end of the world, it's time to go long the planet. Of course, this is a contrarian investor's philosophy. When sentiment hits extremes, a price move in the opposite direction soon follows.

BusinessWeek covers have often been great contrarian indicators. On Aug. 13, 1979, its cover story, "The Death of Equities," all but proclaimed the imminent birth of a new bull market. On the cover of BW's May 9, 2005, issue: "Why GM's Plan Won't Work." This bold feature hit newsstands just before billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian made a tender offer for General Motors and subsequently pushed its stock up more than 20%.

On May 5, Standard and Poor's lowered its credit ratings on General Motors and Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) to junk status. The two companies have a combined $450 billion-plus sloshing around in world debt markets. The downgrade effectively added a mountain of new paper to the junk market, where existing hard-luck corporate stories will have to compete for capital against two of America's biggest corporations that soon may have trouble paying their bills on time, if they don't get big pension concessions out of their legions of current and retired unionized workers.

Confident that GM and Ford will be able to strike deals and get out of the junkyard, bond guru Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Lehmann Income Securities Investor, has been buying up General Motors and Ford debt since the downgrade, including the General Motors 7.25% note trust-preferred issue, which currently yields nearly 10%.

"The junk bond market has been overvalued for more than a year," says Lehmann, who points out that conditions in the high-yield market are not likely to improve soon, due in part to the big splash made by the Ford and GM plunge into the relatively small pool of high-yield debt.

Another ominous wave to hit high-yield debt is going to be a pickup in default rates, which Lehmann thinks will happen before the end of the year. Some of the notably weaker members of the debtor herd, such as Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people ) and Calpine (nyse: CPN - news - people ), may fall prey early on in the cycle.

Those opportunities include the sale of its 1,200 megawatt Saltend Energy Centre in Britain. The plant was put on the block some time ago and Calpine said it is nearly finished reviewing bids. Proceeds from the sale will be used to redeem about $620 million of preferred stock issued in connection with the project.

The company also said it is mulling "strategic alternatives" for its domestic oil and natural gas assets, including selling some or all of them to raise cash.

Another step it is taking is upgrading its gas-fired power plant fleet to cut down on fuel costs, especially during what is called off-peak hours, or those times during the day when electricity demand tapers off.

Jim Jelter is Industrials Editor for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
          §

The sale of the eight plants is in addition to the sale of the Saltend generating station in the U.K. The company has narrowed down the bidders for Saltend to two finalists, Chief Financial Officer Bob Kelly said Wednesday.

"We slipped in our timeline over the past week or two as the bids came in a lot more complicated than we expected," Kelly said. "I feel pretty good that it will be sold."

The Saltend sale is seen as a key source of cash, but a bondholder in the Canadian subsidiary of Calpine is suing to prevent the Saltend proceeds from being transferred to the parent company. Calpine has said it will probably prevail in its defense against that suit, but the whole dispute sent its bonds and stock prices tumbling a month ago. The company also saw its credit ratings reduced deeper into junk-bond territory.

Calpine's stock price rebounded Wednesday, on the announcement of its financial restructuring plan, to where it was before the Saltend protest. At about 3:45 p.m. EDT, Calpine stock was trading at $2.60 a share, up 62 cents or 31% on the day.

The company is also looking at selling its remaining reserves of natural gas and oil.

However, when asked by one shareholder how much revenue will be reduced by the various asset sales, Cartwright said he didn't know.

Kelly said that any such sales boost bottom line income, because proceeds are used to buy back bonds often trading in the secondary market at a significant discount to face value.

A $3-billion reduction in debt would result in $275 million in interest cost savings annually, Cartwright said in the shareholder meeting. Calpine's current debt is about $18 billion and its annual interest costs are about $1.5 billion. The company will further reduce debt in 2006 and 2007, Cartwright said.

Calpine could potentially repurchase some $400 million in outstanding convertible bonds called "High Tides" with cash this year, Kelly said. The company has already repurchased more than $100 million of the issue, which matures in July. The bonds could be refinanced, paid off with stock, or left in place with a higher coupon. Calpine's preference is to replace them with some other equity-linked securities that would mature in 10 years, thus putting off potential dilution of Calpine equity.

One shareholder on Wednesday sharply criticized Kelly's "absolute disdain" for the credit rating agencies - Standard & Poor's and Moody's - and for debt holders.

"Mr. Kelly brags about buying back debt at 60 cents on the dollar. This isn't a long-term business plan. He should be embarrassed that Calpine debt is trading at that level," that shareholder said.

The higher interest rates that Calpine faces due to its lower credit rating, the investor said, will more than negate all the improvements the company can make operating its plants more efficiently.

Cartwright said the company hopes to see its bonds return to trading at par eventually, as it reduces its total debt.

In addition to cutting interest costs, the plan calls for reducing operating costs by about $200 million a year. The operating costs cuts could double to $ 400 million a year over the next few years, Cartwright told shareholders.

Shareholders re-elected three board members - Cartwright, Susan C. Schwab and Susan Wang - and voted in favor of changes to the company's bylaws proposed by the board. They also approved the hiring of PriceWaterhouseCoopers as Calpine's new auditor.

Ich bin meiner Calpine Position mit verschiedenen Trades bereits über 50% im Plus.
Im Moment bin ich wieder draussen und schaue zu nachdem ich gestern bei 2.5 verkauft habe.
Ich denke der Kurs kommt bald wieder zurück. Nüchtern betrachtet hat Cartwright zwar die richtigen Absichten verkündet aber diese müssen sich zuerst ansatzweise realisieren.

Hatte zwischendurch mehrere Trades, aus denen ich aber mit nur 10 % Gewinn rausgegangen bin. Momentan habe ich keine Calpine mehr, würde aber bei einem Rücksetzer auf 2,15 bis 2,20 Dollar wieder einsteigen. Ob dies noch kommmt, ist allerdings fraglich bei 243 Millionen short verkauften Aktien (über 40 % des free float). Die Aktie könnte auch ohne größerer Rücksetzer auf 6 Dollar hochschießen.

Calpine sells U.K. plant for $908M
Saltend plant bought by International Power, Mitsui
By Kabir Chibber, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:40 AM ET May 31, 2005  
          §

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Debt-addled power firm Calpine Corp. has agreed to sell a power plant in England to the U.K.'s International Power PLC and Japan's Mitsui & Co. Ltd for 500 million pounds ($908 million).

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) is selling its modern Saltend 1,200-megawatt combined cycle cogeneration power plant in Hull, England -- its only U.K. unit -- to accelerate the reduction of its heavy $18 billion debt load.

The total equity investment of 225 million pounds for the Saltend plant will be funded 70% by International Power (IPR: news, chart, profile) (UK:IPR: news, chart, profile) and 30% by Mitsui (JP:8031: news, chart, profile) , with the contribution from International Power at 158 million pounds. The remaining consideration will be funded by non-recourse debt of 275 million pounds.

International Power said the deal will lift earnings in its first full year of ownership and boost cash.

"This asset will be integrated into our portfolio in the U.K. market, where we have a blend of efficient and flexible gas, coal and hydro generation," said CEO Philip Cox. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of July.  

und den Preis endgültig nach Norden schiessen.
Der Pre-Market spielt verrückt und es wurden bereits 3.50 bezahlt.
Ich spiele mit dem Gedanken heute nochmals einzusteigen.

Mir macht Sorgen, dass 243 Mill. Calpine (= 45 % des free float) short verkauft sind. Die Shorts decken sich jetzt bei der guten News ein, und das ergibt immer scharfe Ausbrüche nach oben. Oft aber geht es danach genauso schnell wieder nach unten. Es ist IMHO nicht kalkulierbar, wieviele der Shorts covern wollen oder müssen (viele sind weit höher, bei Kursen bis 100 Dollar, short gegangen).

Ich warte deshalb lieber wieder auf einen Rücksetzer in Regionen um 2,25 Dollar, falls das noch einmal kommt. Fundamental ist der Verkauf der Saltend-Anlage eine sehr gute Nachricht. Dann muss Calpine nicht mehr soviele High Tides bzw. Convertibles (Wandelanleihen) zum Bedienen der Schulden mehr rausgeben, die potenziell den Kurs verwässern können.

Das Kredit-Rating-Downgrade auf B mit negativem Ausblick wurde jedoch bislang nicht wieder aufgehoben. Daher halte ich einen Rücksetzer auf 2,25 Dollar für realistisch.

Calpine is in the business of providing natural gas-fired power to utilities. These utilities, such as PG&E (PCG:NYSE) , demand more power during peak periods, such as in California right now where high temperatures have led to a surge in air conditioner usage. So the second quarter should have been a decent period for Calpine.

Yet the company lost 51 cents a share in its second quarter, missing Wall Street estimates by 22 cents a share. Calpine, with all of its mass and scale and perfect geographical positioning in the warmest portion of the country at the right time of the year, only managed to operate at 40% of its capacity in the quarter. This yielded $215.1 million in EBITDA, which is not enough to cover its $333.7 million in interest expense for the quarter, let alone the $50 million to $100 million it usually spends just to keep its plants up and running. (Note that the company, which has a history of issuing guidance that it subsequently misses, said it expected to deliver $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in EBITDA in 2005. At this pace, it will not come close to this forecast.)

In addition, Calpine stated that July utilization had only risen to 51%. Industry watchers, however, would prefer, or even expect, a company of Calpine's stature to have closer to a minimum 60% of its capacity right now. Part of the problem with Calpine's business results is that plant breakdowns held back power generation in the quarter. This raises the interesting question of why the company did not fix its plants. Perhaps it is because Calpine doesn't have the cash to spend on repairs.

In the company's press release that accompanies its second- quarter earnings report, Calpine reported having $636 million in cash and $993.9 million in restricted cash. Of this reported restricted cash, some $400 million has already been spent by the company to repurchase some preferred securities.

This, in and of itself, is quite paltry relative to the company's $17.4 billion debt load and more than $1.5 billion in annual interest payments. But what's more concerning is that the $636 million cash figure may not be representative of the amount of cash Calpine can actually spend. And when the company's 10-Q is issued Tuesday, some of these concerns may come to light.

First, about $315 million of this cash is inaccessible because it is sitting on the balance sheet of its subsidiaries, as required by certain debt indentures that require a certain amount of collateral. In addition, the company has about $186 million in debt due on Aug. 15.

So of the $636 million in cash on hand, roughly $200 million may be free to fund operations, capital expenditures and further debt and interest payments in the third quarter. This type of liquidity is unsustainable for a public company with large capital expenditures. Calpine will struggle to shell out cash to make plant repairs or buy natural gas to generate power.

To be fair, the company has closed two large asset sales since the end of the June quarter that it said significantly improved its cash position. During the first week of July, the company closed the sales of its natural gas reserves in Canada, the Gulf Coast and California for net proceeds of $835 million. And on July 28, Calpine sold its Saltend facility for $848 million.

If you add this $1.7 billion to the $100 million to $200 million or so in cash the company had to fund its operations at the end of the second quarter, plus Street estimates for about $350 million in EBITDA this quarter and $122 million in proceeds from two other asset sales, you could argue the company is in a decent financial position to get through the end of the year, at least.

Unfortunately, when a company in Calpine's financial situation sells assets that have served as collateral for already existing debt obligations, new debt obligations are triggered because the bonds are no longer secured by the asset, as required in the debt indentures.

Take the sale of its natural gas plant. Of the $835 million raised with the natural gas sale, about $696 million is in escrow and needs to be used to buy back the debt that was secured by the asset. That's because only $139 million of the debt being used to secure the asset has been tendered, meaning the company is still on the hook for the $696 million that is sitting in escrow. In other words, this asset sale had a negligible impact on the company's ability to pay its bills.

And Calpine's other cash obligations -- capital expenditures on maintenance; interest expense; money owed to buy back $620 million in outstanding preferred stock already spent this quarter; the $400 million the company has used to buy back the preferred debt mentioned above; working capital required to secure natural gas to fire its plants -- leave the company with just about nothing at the end of the quarter.

Additionally, there is unconfirmed speculation among a number of hedge funds and analysts that Calpine's sales of its natural gas business back in early July has limited the company's ability to secure natural gas, its main feedstock for power generation. Calpine has a junk debt rating with credit agencies, so securing the financing to buy natural gas can prove quite costly. Without this feedstock for power, the company's total output may be held back during the peak months when demand, and profits, should be soaring.

The bottom line is that Calpine, at some point, is likely to run out of cash and assets to sell. Unlike Williams Companies (WMB:NYSE) or El Paso (EP:NYSE) , which both climbed out from under massive piles of debt over the past few years and are now operating sustainable business models, Calpine's asset sales are going to pay the interest expense on the financial obligations created by the asset sales themselves, despite the immediate appearance that the company is paying down debt.

When we called the company to ask the CFO for help understanding the financials, we were told he was on vacation and unavailable for comment. Its public relations department was able to confirm the majority of our numbers without dispute, but would not comment on our analysis.

Die Preise für Natural Gas sind seit dem 19. August - also in nur 12 Tagen - um geschlagene 33 % gestiegen: von 9 auf jetzt 12 Dollar (Intraday-Hoch). Für Calpine (heute: 3,03 USD) ist das langfristig tödlich, da die Mehrzahl der Calpine-Kraftwerke mit Gas befeuert wird. Das wird die Kapitaldecke weiter ausdünnen.

Ähnlich problematisch ist die Lage bei der hochverschuldeten Delta Airlines (Aktie heute: 1,17 USD), die durch den hohen Ölpreises aller Wahrscheinlichkeit in den Bankrott (Chapter 11) getrieben wird.

Katherine Potter, a spokesperson for Calpine, said via e-mail that the Bank of New York, which serves as the collateral trustee for the company's secured debt holders, has referred the company to a law firm, which claims to represents holders of Calpine's first lien notes. Calpine offered the proceeds to the first lien holders in July and $139 million of the notes were tendered to the company in response, Potter said. "As previously reported in our 10-Q and as permitted in our indentures, Calpine is permitted to use the proceeds from the sale of its oil and gas assets to acquire new natural gas and/or geothermal energy assets," she said. "A portion of those proceeds has been used to reinvest in new natural gas assets."

The Bank of New York stressed that it serves only an administrative role. "We have no comment on the discussions between the interested parties," a spokesman said. In May, the company announced a plan to cut $3 billion of debt by selling assets and using the money to pay down bonds.

Calpine, which carries junk-bond ratings, has been fighting to remain afloat since the collapse of its share price following the Enron-related meltdown of the merchant energy group. Most recently, it formed a energy marketing and trading business with Bear Stearns in a deal designed to reduce Calpine's collateral requirements and allow it to buy and sell natural gas and power, on a short-term basis, as an A-rated entity.


Board Members Bolt From Calpine
By William Gabrielski (TheStreet.com)
9/21/2005 11:36

Calpine (CPN: NYSE) shares are under more pressure this morning, following Tuesday night's announcement that two board members -- Jeffrey Garten and John Wilson -- are leaving the company.

Garten is a well-respected businessman who served as undersecretary of commerce for former President Bill Clinton. Garten is the current dean of the Yale School of Management and has a strong Wall Street bloodline, including stints at The Blackstone Group and Shearson Lehman. Wilson joined Calpine's board in 1997, shortly after the company's IPO, and plans to continue to serve as a faculty member of the University of California at Berkeley.

The company issued a press release saying the board had named William J. Keese, former chairman of the California Energy Commission, and Walter L. Revell, chairman and chief executive officer of Revell Investments International, to replace Garten and Wilson on the board.

The speculation among debt analysts and traders I spoke with is that the departure of Garten, which was effective as of Sept. 14, could be a sign that Calpine's walls are caving in and that Garten does not want to be associated with a company that could be on the verge of insolvency. This seems like a fair assessment based on my research, and I'd expect Calpine's current financial situation to gain more attention in light of this. I have contacted the company regarding these departures and am awaiting comment.

In other news, Calpine's planned $400 million preferred offering is not receiving a positive reaction on the Street. The deal size has been cut to $300 million , according to a report from DebtWire.com. And Calpine now plans to wait until February to buy back the $150 million preferred it issued in August, raising the question as to whether it will be able to get the $300 million deal done at all. But even if the deal does get done, the amount of time that has passed since the company announced its plans to issue these preferred securities leads me to believe the terms will not be favorable to Calpine.

By delaying the repayment of the $150 million, and cutting the deal size of the recently proposed preferred offering from $400 million to $300 million, Calpine's liquidity situation could be in an even worse position than I originally believed.

Finally, in response to Tuesday's column, Calpine sent me an email saying it could use the proceeds from its natural gas asset sale to acquire natural gas. The bondholders continue to disagree. But no matter who turns out to be right, the fact that Calpine's access to the funds it has with Bank of New York has been cut off is a negative for the company's ability to fund operations and secure natural gas.

sinvolle" Projekte investieren. Leider muß ich seit Wochen beobachten, das alles, was diesen Ruf genießt nur noch abschmiert.

Calpine ist das beste Beispiel dafür. Der so hoch gepriesene Stromliferant aus Gasheizkraftwerken, die sich bei uns des höchsten Lobes an Effizienz sicher sind, steht kurz vor dem Bankrott.

Was soll ich nun tun? Ich denke, daß ich investieren werde, gerade jetzt. Immerhin ist Calpine einer der großen Stromproduzenten in Kalifornien. Da dieser Bundesstaat eh schon an Strommangel leidet, wird auch die öffentliche Hand nicht zulassen (können), daß dicht gemacht wird.

MfG/Johannah

wären nach meiner Meinung die Beteiligung an einem Hackschnitzel- und Holzpelletwerk (z.B. als direkte unternehmerische Bet. an einer GmbH , AG in Privatbesitz oder (bzw. und )  der Kauf von Wäldern, Pflege derselben (Bewegung an der frischen Luft ...)
sowie die Investition in eine Hackschnitzel- oder Pelletheizung für das eigene Haus.
Eine Zusatzinvestition in verbesserte Wärmedämmung falls nötig sowie
eventuell eine Solarthermieanlage (Flach- oder Röhrenkoll) zur Warmwassergewinnung und
Heizungsunterstützung oder ein  3-4 Liter Auto ist auch nicht verkehrt usw.

Alle diese im privaten Bereich vorgenommenen Investitionen  
sind m.E. ökologisch erheblich sinnvoller als Geld in diese amerikanische Pleitebude zu stecken, die auch Gas verbrennt (Geld sowieso).

Gruß, Klinger

bestefalls für ganz kurzfristig ausgerichtete Spekulanten, die auf Bewegungen nach Tagessentiment spekulieren, sonst NICHTS! Und  schon gar keine 'Investition'.

was da nach einem Chapter 11 Verfahren übrigbleiben wird vom jetzigen Aktienkapital, wenn sich die Banken erstmal bedient haben -z.B. durch Umwandlung der Kredite in neue Aktien - das weiß jetzt niemand.

 

hören.

Verschone mich also bitte mit weiteren Empfehlungen. Ich habe kein Bock auf Holzschnippsel, ich will Profit machen.

MfG/Johannah

wie du
Ich möchte gerne meine Knete in "ökologisch   johannah   30.11.05 21:54  

sinvolle" Projekte investieren. Leider muß ich seit Wochen beobachten, das alles, was diesen Ruf genießt nur noch abschmiert.

und dann mit der Insobude Calpine als Idee kommt, und meint, das sei eine "Investition",
der sollte sein Geld lieber gleich im Ofen verbrennen.
Alternativ kannst er  es auch einem Ökofonds reinstecken.

Der braucht auch sicher keine Anlageempfehlungen, da hast du recht.
Somit könntest du auch auf solche widersprüchlichen Anfragen getrost verzichten.  

Vermutlich wirst du auch nie verstehen, dass die profitablesten ökologischen (!!) Investitionen auf längere Sicht die Einspareffekte bei Energieverbrauch  und Co2-Ausstoß  im privaten Bereich sind.
 
Und da du dich in bester Gesellschaft von Milliarden ähnlicher Durchblicker befindest,
werden wir in 20 Jahren nur noch für die Energierechnung arbeiten -- wenn überhaupt.

Kauf Calpine, da bist du auch in bester Gesellschaft. *grins*

Komisch, Kurs Frankfurt 0,32 Euro, Kurs New York 0,34$ = 0,29 Euro.

Auch komisch dass es schon vor der Insolvenzmeldung derart abstürzt. Bei Delphi gings erst danach los.

Gruss, Kralle

Das ging schnell. Heute mal eben Minus 30% auf 28 cent.  


Die balancieren voll auf der Kante zur Inso, derzeit wie gesagt nur ein Zockerteil auf alles oder nichts und wilde Kurssprünge, aber  keine seriöse Anlage.  


biz.yahoo.com/rb/051202/utilities_calpine.html?.v=4

Calpine feared on brink of bankruptcy
Friday December 2, 3:48 pm ET
By Ben Berkowitz


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Embattled power producer Calpine Corp. (NYSE:CPN - News) remained the subject of bankruptcy fears on Friday after a Delaware court gave it far less time than it had requested to repay more than $300 million it improperly spent to buy fuel for its power plants.
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The company said it would appeal the ruling and seek an expedited hearing. A spokeswoman was not available for further comment on the company's plans.

Calpine, struggling under a $17 billion debt burden after years of expansion and a post-Enron downturn in the merchant power market, has conceded that bankruptcy is an option. But at the same time it also launched a $400 million debt buyback late Thursday that surprised observers and created at least some hope that insolvency was not imminent.

Calpine shares were down 9 cents at 29 cents in afternoon New York Stock Exchange trading. They have lost 84 percent of their value since early last week, when the company first lost the Delaware case. Days later the board of directors removed CEO Peter Cartwright and CFO Robert Kelly.

"When Cartwright and Kelly were still at the firm we had believed that the $313 million would not drive them into bankruptcy," said Jon Cartwright, a debt analyst at BOSC Inc. "Now that they're gone it's entirely possible that the surviving board members will chose bankruptcy."

After Vice Chancellor Leo Strine of the Delaware Court of Chancery ruled on November 22 that Calpine violated its bond indentures when it bought gas for fuel with the proceeds of some recent asset sales, the company essentially threw itself on the court's mercy.

In a filing this past Wednesday, Calpine said anything less than 90 days to repay the $313 million could "devastate" the company and would be "potentially ruinous." But Strine chastised Calpine in court on Friday for not being more upfront about its financial condition.

"For a company with $27 billion in assets to say that a ruling sought from this court would determine their fate is astounding as a business proposition and questionable as a legal proposition," Strine said.

The judge's ruling came just hours after the company said it would tender for $400 million in debt, using its remaining asset sale proceeds, giving at least some confidence that it could delay any insolvency.

"Tendering for the senior notes would indicate a high probably that the company would continue to operate," said BOSC Inc.'s Cartwright, no relation to the former CEO Cartwright. He continues to have a "buy" rating on some Calpine bonds.

Management experts considering Calpine's situation said that, ultimately, the company should have known better than to get caught up with so much debt and then fight with its bondholders over its spending plans.

"There's really no excuse in their business, because they've seen Enron, they've seen Dynegy fall before them," said Anthony Sabino, a professor of business and law at St. John's University in New York. "The taint is going to stain them and it's going to be a difficult if not impossible stain to wash off."

Die Aktie fällt auf 22 cent und wird ab Dienstag voraussichtlich nicht mehr an der NYSE gehandelt. Danach geht der Handel über Bulletin Boards weiter. Ich möchte noch einmal daran erinnern, dass ich vor drei Monaten hier bei 3,25 USD den VERKAUF und Ausstieg empfohlen habe (siehe Postings aus der Zeit).

----------

NYSE moves to delist Calpine
Shares hit new lows
By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - The New York Stock Exchange Inc. moved on Monday to suspend Calpine Corp., citing the steep drop in the power generator's share price and Calpine's own warnings last week that it risks running out of cash. The exchange said Calpine's common shares should be suspended before the market opening Tuesday or earlier if Calpine's financial situation takes a material turn for the worse.

Calpine (CPN:) shares continued their downward spiral Monday, dropping as much as 21% to an all-time low of 22 cents. The Big Board said its decision reflected Calpine's low share price and warning last week of "substantial risk" that it won't have enough cash to repay $313 million to bondholders, as ordered by the Delaware Chancery Court, and cover its debt obligations and operating expenses.

San Jose, Calif,-based Calpine, in a brief statement, said it expects its common stock will be quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board.

Calpine ist ohnehin sehr hoch verschuldet (17 Mrd. Dollar) und erwirtschaftet seit über einem Jahr laufend Verluste. Im Sommer hat CPN Gasfelder und ein Gaskraftwerk in England verkauft. Das schien zunächst eine gute Nachricht. Doch dann zeigte sich, dass die Firma über die Verkaufserlöse nicht frei verfügen konnte, da die verkauften Objekte als Sicherheit für Bond-Anleger (meist Hedgefonds) dienten.

Der Verkauf der Gasfelder war der größte strategische Fehler. Statt das Gas für den Park aus 90 Gas-Kraftwerken zum Teil aus eigenen Feldern zu beziehen, musste Calpine nun am freien Markt zukaufen - zu einem Zeitpunkt, da der Gaspreis drastisch in die Höhe schoss. Im Sommer, beim Verkauf der Gas-Felder, stand das Gas noch bei 7 Dollar, heute teils über 13.

Calpine hat 300 Mill. aus dem Verkauf der Gas-Felder dazu benutzt, Gas am freien Markt für den laufenden Betrieb zu kaufen. Dagegen haben die Bond-Halter protestiert und sind vor Gericht gezogen. Letzte Woche verlor Calpine diesen Prozess. Die Firma muss bis Januar die 300 Mill. Dollar zurückzahlen. Da sie das nicht kann, wird sie nun vermutlich unter Chapter 11 gehen (zu deutsch: pleite). Die Aktien dürften dann wertlos werden.

In New York schloss die Aktie heute bei 23 cents. Ab morgen wird sie nicht mehr an der NYSE gehandelt.

da hast deftig gekontert.

Calpine ist aber (vermutlich immer noch) der weltweit größte Anbieter von Strom aus Thermalkraftwerken. Warum soll den ein Invest aus ökologischen Gründen hier so verkehrt sein? Calpine mag eine Insobude sein. Davon haben wir hierzulande auch nicht wenige. Was spricht denn aus deiner Sicht für ein Invest in die Windkraft oder die Solartechnik. Die Kurse dieser "Läden" sind entweder ausgelutscht oder auf Konkursniveau. Bei Calpine besteht wenigstens die Chance auf eine Kurserholung.

MfG/Johannah

Lange hats ja nun nicht mehr gedauert, bis Chapter 11.
Es gilt der 2. Absatz in Posting 78.
Calpine gehört jetzt mehr oder weniger den Banken.

biz.yahoo.com/ap/051221/calpine_bankruptcy.html?.v=4

AP
Calpine Files for Bankruptcy Protection
Wednesday December 21, 1:07 am ET
By Josh Dubow, Associated Press Writer  
Struggling Power Merchant Calpine Corp. Files for Bankruptcy Protection


SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Struggling power generator Calpine Corp. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Tuesday as it grapples with more than $22 billion in debt.
The filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York will allow Calpine to continue normal operations at its power plants and facilities in the United States, Mexico and Canada, the company said in a news release. Calpine supplies electricity in 21 states and has steam and gas-fired plants nationwide.

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Calpine, based in San Jose, has lost $926 million since the end of 2003.

Last week, the Delaware Supreme Court refused to throw out a ruling ordering Calpine to restore more than $300 million to an account that was frozen at the request of its creditors. The court sent the case back to the Delaware Chancery Court to impose new conditions to safeguard the rights of Calpine's second-lien debt holders.

The justices said the lower court had failed to recognize contractual rights of Calpine's top-priority debt holders. As a result, Calpine had until Jan. 22 to restore about $312 million in the escrow account. It also was told to make a tender offer to second-lien debt holders by Jan. 3.

The protracted fight with bondholders, which led to the ruling, was seen as a catalyst likely to tip the company into bankruptcy reorganization.

"We believe that Calpine needs to change its business model in light of the ongoing evolution of competitive power markets and our current financial condition," new CEO Robert P. May said in a statement. "Although the company has taken numerous steps to reduce its debt and strengthen its balance sheet through asset sales and other means, these actions were not sufficient to offset the cost of Calpine's substantial debt obligations."

According to the petition, Calpine has assets of about $26.6 billion and total debts of about $22.5 billion. Three Calpine subsidiaries also filed for bankruptcy protection: Calpine Administrative Services Company Inc., Calpine Energy Holdings Inc. and Calpine Kennedy Operators Inc.

May took over earlier this month from Calpine director Kenneth Derr, who had been handling the chief executive's job on an interim basis since the company ousted its founder, Peter Cartwright, late last month.

Calpine said it has arranged for $2 billion of secured financing from Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse First Boston to operate during its reorganization. The financing includes a $1 billion revolving credit facility and a $1 billion term loan.

Investors had expected the company to file for bankruptcy. Reflecting Wall Street's bleak outlook for the company, Calpine's shares were suspended from trading on the New York Stock Exchange and are in the process of being delisted.

Calpine wurde von einem Hedgefonds, der sich angeblich um seine Calpine-Bonds Sorgen machte, offenbar mutwillig in den Bankrott getrieben.

Was hat ein Hedgefond davon? Die Antwort findet ihr hier:

http://www.ariva.de/board/245194?pnr=2427155#jump2427155

Lest bitte auch das Posting davor -> sehr aufschlussreich. Es geht darum, dass Hedgefonds große Mengen "Credit Default Swaps" (CDS) kaufen - und danach ein Interesse haben, die Firmen in den Bankrott zu treiben.

wat denn nun los ?

Achtung, die Altaktien CPNLQ sind wertlos, weil Calpine unter Chapter 11 ging.

Details hier:

http://www.ariva.de/board/280419


Der CHART (unten) ist pure Augenwischerei.

Calpine goes UP !!!!!

Ich denke, wenn schon insolvente Klitsche, warum dann nicht eine, bei der man auch Chancen hat, dass sich der Einsatz vermehrt.

"Ich denke, wenn schon insolvente Klitsche, warum dann nicht eine, bei der man auch Chancen hat, dass sich der Einsatz vermehrt."

Der Einsatz hat sich bei der "insolvente Klitsche" mittlerweile um das Vielfache vermehrt.

Dieser Laden kriegt vor lauter internen Quälereien nichts davon mit, was im Finanzsektor passiert.

Oder, "dieser Laden kriegt" deswegen nichts mehr mit, weil er seine potentiellen Kunden mit allen möglichen Schikanen verkräzt.

Der Kurs von Calpine steigt und steigt! Bei Ariva ist diese Entwicklung aber noch nicht angekommen, im Gegensatz zur Konkurrenz.

Die Altaktionöre haben davon aber nichts mehr (außer nehmen sofort Gewinne mit).

Wenn Calpine "Chapter 11" verlässt, werden die neuen Aktien an die Bond-Halter verteilt (als Ersatz für die wertlosen Bonds). Die Altaktien verfallen mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit wertlos (Ansprüche von Aktionären sind nachrangig gegenüber denen von Bond-Haltern).

Was da mit den Altaktien noch getradet wird, ist reines Gezocke IMHO.

Details: Link in # 90

mehr gültig sein.

Wie du an deinem eigenen Chart erkennen kanst, ist Calpine wieder um über ca. 22% gestiegen.

Ich bin schon länger investiert und habe, mit dem nicht unerheblichem Restbestand nach Käufen/Verkäufen, einen Einstandskurs von 0$. Bei einem Schlußkurs von 3$ am 12.04 geht meine Performance gegen unendlich.

Was interessieren mich deine Warnungen also? Und wertlos sollen die Altaktien angeblich auch nicht werden. Vielmehr wird in anderen Foren ein mittelfristiger Kurs von mehreren Dollar für die Altaktien vorhergesagt.

Übrigens: die riesigen Umsätze der letzten Tage können kein reines Gezocke sein.

MfG/Johannah

so zaghaft oder zurückhaltend?

In anderen Foren wird doch der Kursanstieg von Calpine auf mittlerweile ca. 4$ lebhaft diskuttiert.

Warum hier nicht?

MfG/Johannah

Hallo,

wie seht dir die Kursentwicklung? Auf onvista sieht die Prognose ja grandios aus. Im Moment unterliegt die Aktie aber ziemlichen negativ Trend.

wurde noch kein Porzellan zerbrochen, aber auch keine Stricke zerrissen. Habe seit April aber immerhin 20% zugelegt. Nach Onvista ist hier allerdings noch 100% zu holen bis Ende Jahr. Wer's mal glaubt....

Heute gefunden:

In another deal, Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBKGN.DE - News) is helping provide financing to power producer Calpine Corp. (Other OTC:CPNLQ.PK - News) in a bankruptcy exit that is expected to allow unsecured creditors to receive nearly all of their claims.

g
penski

unter Chapter 11? Habe bei 3.65 USD einige tausend verkauft und bin bei 2.85 wieder rein. SL bei 2.70 USD. Wenn das nur gut geht?

Calpine weg. Der Abstieg von weit über drei USD auf nun ca 1,50 ist schon gewaltig, aber nicht anders zu erwarten gewesen, eigentlich. Habe mit dieser bankroten Bruchbude schon zu viel Geld in den Sand gesetzt, war schon vor der Pleite dabei, damals als Enron den Bach runter ging, es reicht nun wirklich.
Dachte mir immer, besonders die Amis brauchen ja unmengen von Strom, aber die sind nicht einmal in der Lage rentabel oder wenigstens kostenneutral zu produzieren.
Verwundert mich anderseits auch nicht, wenn ich sehe wie kompliziert und hinterwäldlerisch dort gearbeitet wird.
Bin der Meinung, aus allem was mit USA zu tun hat, möglichst schnell aussteigen, dort bahnt sich gröberes an.
Ist natürlich wie immer nur meine Meinung
Gruss penski