Calpine - interessanter Alternativ-Versorger

Nur Schade bist zu früh rein.
Deine Postings haben meine Aufmerksamkeit auf diese Aktie gelenkt und ich habe den Absturz mitverfolgt um dann bei 1.65 einzusteigen.
Wie siehst Du den weiteren Verlauf?

Ich hab bei 1,47 nachgekauft und dann bei 2,01 teilverkauft, was meinen Schnitt auf 1,85 USD gebracht hat. Ich glaube, dass beim Kursniveau vor dem Pleitegerücht - also um 2,40 USD - erst mal ein Widerstand sitzt. Bevor der überwunden wird, sollte es eine technische Korrektur geben, die bis zurück auf 1,90 gehen könnte (dann würde ich nachkaufen). Ob die wirklich kommt, ist allerdings bei den vielen Shorts fraglich.

Die endgültigen Zahlen kommen am 5. Mai; die Ergebnisse vom letzten Freitag waren vorläufig. Dann wird auch entschieden, was mit der Wandelanleihe (Fälligkeit August 05) geschieht. Die Zahlen vom Freitag lagen unter den Analystenerwartungen. Analysten hatten mit einem Quartalsverlust von 0,28 Dollar gerechnet, tatsächlich lag er bei 0,38 Dollar. Dies könnte den Deckel auf dem Kurs halten. Entscheidend ist, wie sich in nächster Zeit der Preis für Natural Gas entwickelt, der sich synchron zum Ölpreis bewegt.

dass es für meine Analyse ansonsten kein positives Feedback (z. B. grüne Sterne) gegeben hat. Wer bei 1,47 kaufte - nachdem ich hier gepostet hatte, dass es kein Bankrott geben würde - hat innerhalb von vier Börsentagen immerhin bis zu 60 Prozent gemacht (raus für 2,35).

Einen anderen kann ich Dir leider nicht geben :(

Ein Blick auf dein Depot sollte dir doch Lob genug sein!

Aber das war schon wirklich eine gute Leistung und mit dem Nachkauf sehr konsequent verfolgt.

Ich wünsche dir, dass du den Absprung nicht versäumst, oder bist du schon raus?

danke, Ihr seid SOOOOO gut zu mir ;-)

Ich habe gestern alle Calpine für 2,35 Dollar verkauft - bis auf die, die meinem Gewinn entsprachen. Die lass ich jetzt einfach stehen (ca. 1,3 % meines Portfolios) - und spekuliere damit sozusagen auf Kosten des Hauses.

Falls Calpine noch einmal auf ca. 1,90 fällt, würde ich mehr dazukaufen.

und reite weiter auf der Welle.
Ich hab mich noch nicht entschieden ob ich die Zahlen abwarten soll oder nicht.

Kann man reiten die Welle, sie hat aber tiefe Täler. Gestern stieg Calpine bis 2,59 USD, weil offenbar viele Shorts die Kaufpanik gepackt hatte. Heute nach den Zahlen, die der Vorankündigung vom letzten Freitag entsprechen, geht es wieder drastisch bergab. z. Z. steht CPN auf 2,09. Da hat sich IMHO nur das Momentum umgekehrt, jetzt haben diejenigen, die bei 2,40 bis 2,50 wieder eingestiegen sind, Druck. Ich warte ab und gucke beim Fallen zu.

Calpine posts wider first quarter loss
By Stephanie I. Cohen, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:58 AM ET May 5, 2005  


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Calpine Corp. on Thursday posted a wider first quarter loss citing higher operating and interest expenses associated with new plants coming on line.

The merchant power generator reported a first quarter net loss of $168.7 million, or 38 cents a share, compared with a loss of $71.2 million, or 17 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Calpine just last week braced investors for the news in an updated financial outlook. The update failed to prevent a 5% fall in its shares at the open but they bounced back by midday to $2.23, down 5 cents or 2.2%.

"Traditionally, we experience seasonably low revenue ... during the first quarter," said Pete Cartwright, Calpine chief executive officer, in a statement.

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) reported a 9% increase in revenue in the first quarter to $2.21 billion, up from $2.03 billion a year earlier.

San Jose, California power provider operates a fleet of gas-fired and geothermal power plants in 21 states, Canada, and Britain.

One of the many merchant power businesses struggling in recent years amid an oversupplied market and high fuel costs, Calpine has been dogged by recent rumors of an impending bankruptcy.

During the three months ended March 31, 2005, Calpine's financial results were hurt by a $100.5 million increase in interest expenses, compared to the same period in 2004, the company said.

Calpine, one of many merchant power businesses struggling in recent years amid an oversupplied market and high fuel costs, has seen its shares hit hard in recent.

Persistent short-selling prompted the company to take the unusual step of issuing a statement to knock down what it called "reckless and unfounded rumors" that it was about to file for bankruptcy.

At the same time, Calpine requested the New York Stock Exchange open an investigation into recent trading of its stock.

Although Calpine managers made no promises for the future, it sounds as if they are at least willing to consider additional asset sales if the prices are right. That makes a lot of sense. Calpine is running at less than half of capacity on a companywide basis. If there are any redundant or non-strategic assets that can be converted to cash for debt repayment, that seems like a slam dunk to me.

In the meantime, owning Calpine shares these days will probably continue to be a lot like trying to drive on ice -- nail-biting, tough, and replete with the feeling that forces beyond your control are deciding your fate. While there are signs of improvement in the broader power market, Calpine has a long row to hoe to get its balance sheet in order and put the company in a position to report net profits to its owners.

At this point, Calpine looks like what I've always called a "binary stock" -- either it's going to recover and be all right, or it's heading to zero. Calpine clearly has assets with value, management is making progress on operating efficiency, and the company isn't in imminent danger of collapse. But that debt load is huge, and the market for independent power generation can be extremely volatile.

Investors with a nose for deep value and a very high tolerance for risk might want to take a sniff, but this is absolutely not a stock that belongs in everyone's portfolio today.

In a press release Tuesday, the power company said its natural gas assets are primarily located in the Sacramento Basin of California, South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the company is active in Colorado, New Mexico and Utah.

As of Dec. 31, Calpine had 389 billion cubic feet equivalent of proved gas reserves. Calpine's natural-gas land interests currently include 386,674 net developed and undeveloped acres and the company's assets currently produce about 90 million cubic feet equivalent per day from 607 net wells.

"Net proceeds from any sale of the natural gas assets would be used in accordance with Calpine's existing bond indentures," the company said.

In 2004, Calpine had revenue of $9.23 billion.

----------------------------------

Forbes.com
Junkyard Steals
John Dobosz, May 23, 2005, 4:45 PM ET

When newsmagazines start running covers proclaiming the end of the world, it's time to go long the planet. Of course, this is a contrarian investor's philosophy. When sentiment hits extremes, a price move in the opposite direction soon follows.

BusinessWeek covers have often been great contrarian indicators. On Aug. 13, 1979, its cover story, "The Death of Equities," all but proclaimed the imminent birth of a new bull market. On the cover of BW's May 9, 2005, issue: "Why GM's Plan Won't Work." This bold feature hit newsstands just before billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian made a tender offer for General Motors and subsequently pushed its stock up more than 20%.

On May 5, Standard and Poor's lowered its credit ratings on General Motors and Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ) to junk status. The two companies have a combined $450 billion-plus sloshing around in world debt markets. The downgrade effectively added a mountain of new paper to the junk market, where existing hard-luck corporate stories will have to compete for capital against two of America's biggest corporations that soon may have trouble paying their bills on time, if they don't get big pension concessions out of their legions of current and retired unionized workers.

Confident that GM and Ford will be able to strike deals and get out of the junkyard, bond guru Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Lehmann Income Securities Investor, has been buying up General Motors and Ford debt since the downgrade, including the General Motors 7.25% note trust-preferred issue, which currently yields nearly 10%.

"The junk bond market has been overvalued for more than a year," says Lehmann, who points out that conditions in the high-yield market are not likely to improve soon, due in part to the big splash made by the Ford and GM plunge into the relatively small pool of high-yield debt.

Another ominous wave to hit high-yield debt is going to be a pickup in default rates, which Lehmann thinks will happen before the end of the year. Some of the notably weaker members of the debtor herd, such as Delta Air Lines (nyse: DAL - news - people ) and Calpine (nyse: CPN - news - people ), may fall prey early on in the cycle.

Those opportunities include the sale of its 1,200 megawatt Saltend Energy Centre in Britain. The plant was put on the block some time ago and Calpine said it is nearly finished reviewing bids. Proceeds from the sale will be used to redeem about $620 million of preferred stock issued in connection with the project.

The company also said it is mulling "strategic alternatives" for its domestic oil and natural gas assets, including selling some or all of them to raise cash.

Another step it is taking is upgrading its gas-fired power plant fleet to cut down on fuel costs, especially during what is called off-peak hours, or those times during the day when electricity demand tapers off.

Jim Jelter is Industrials Editor for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
          §

The sale of the eight plants is in addition to the sale of the Saltend generating station in the U.K. The company has narrowed down the bidders for Saltend to two finalists, Chief Financial Officer Bob Kelly said Wednesday.

"We slipped in our timeline over the past week or two as the bids came in a lot more complicated than we expected," Kelly said. "I feel pretty good that it will be sold."

The Saltend sale is seen as a key source of cash, but a bondholder in the Canadian subsidiary of Calpine is suing to prevent the Saltend proceeds from being transferred to the parent company. Calpine has said it will probably prevail in its defense against that suit, but the whole dispute sent its bonds and stock prices tumbling a month ago. The company also saw its credit ratings reduced deeper into junk-bond territory.

Calpine's stock price rebounded Wednesday, on the announcement of its financial restructuring plan, to where it was before the Saltend protest. At about 3:45 p.m. EDT, Calpine stock was trading at $2.60 a share, up 62 cents or 31% on the day.

The company is also looking at selling its remaining reserves of natural gas and oil.

However, when asked by one shareholder how much revenue will be reduced by the various asset sales, Cartwright said he didn't know.

Kelly said that any such sales boost bottom line income, because proceeds are used to buy back bonds often trading in the secondary market at a significant discount to face value.

A $3-billion reduction in debt would result in $275 million in interest cost savings annually, Cartwright said in the shareholder meeting. Calpine's current debt is about $18 billion and its annual interest costs are about $1.5 billion. The company will further reduce debt in 2006 and 2007, Cartwright said.

Calpine could potentially repurchase some $400 million in outstanding convertible bonds called "High Tides" with cash this year, Kelly said. The company has already repurchased more than $100 million of the issue, which matures in July. The bonds could be refinanced, paid off with stock, or left in place with a higher coupon. Calpine's preference is to replace them with some other equity-linked securities that would mature in 10 years, thus putting off potential dilution of Calpine equity.

One shareholder on Wednesday sharply criticized Kelly's "absolute disdain" for the credit rating agencies - Standard & Poor's and Moody's - and for debt holders.

"Mr. Kelly brags about buying back debt at 60 cents on the dollar. This isn't a long-term business plan. He should be embarrassed that Calpine debt is trading at that level," that shareholder said.

The higher interest rates that Calpine faces due to its lower credit rating, the investor said, will more than negate all the improvements the company can make operating its plants more efficiently.

Cartwright said the company hopes to see its bonds return to trading at par eventually, as it reduces its total debt.

In addition to cutting interest costs, the plan calls for reducing operating costs by about $200 million a year. The operating costs cuts could double to $ 400 million a year over the next few years, Cartwright told shareholders.

Shareholders re-elected three board members - Cartwright, Susan C. Schwab and Susan Wang - and voted in favor of changes to the company's bylaws proposed by the board. They also approved the hiring of PriceWaterhouseCoopers as Calpine's new auditor.

Ich bin meiner Calpine Position mit verschiedenen Trades bereits über 50% im Plus.
Im Moment bin ich wieder draussen und schaue zu nachdem ich gestern bei 2.5 verkauft habe.
Ich denke der Kurs kommt bald wieder zurück. Nüchtern betrachtet hat Cartwright zwar die richtigen Absichten verkündet aber diese müssen sich zuerst ansatzweise realisieren.

Hatte zwischendurch mehrere Trades, aus denen ich aber mit nur 10 % Gewinn rausgegangen bin. Momentan habe ich keine Calpine mehr, würde aber bei einem Rücksetzer auf 2,15 bis 2,20 Dollar wieder einsteigen. Ob dies noch kommmt, ist allerdings fraglich bei 243 Millionen short verkauften Aktien (über 40 % des free float). Die Aktie könnte auch ohne größerer Rücksetzer auf 6 Dollar hochschießen.

Calpine sells U.K. plant for $908M
Saltend plant bought by International Power, Mitsui
By Kabir Chibber, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:40 AM ET May 31, 2005  
          §

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Debt-addled power firm Calpine Corp. has agreed to sell a power plant in England to the U.K.'s International Power PLC and Japan's Mitsui & Co. Ltd for 500 million pounds ($908 million).

Calpine (CPN: news, chart, profile) is selling its modern Saltend 1,200-megawatt combined cycle cogeneration power plant in Hull, England -- its only U.K. unit -- to accelerate the reduction of its heavy $18 billion debt load.

The total equity investment of 225 million pounds for the Saltend plant will be funded 70% by International Power (IPR: news, chart, profile) (UK:IPR: news, chart, profile) and 30% by Mitsui (JP:8031: news, chart, profile) , with the contribution from International Power at 158 million pounds. The remaining consideration will be funded by non-recourse debt of 275 million pounds.

International Power said the deal will lift earnings in its first full year of ownership and boost cash.

"This asset will be integrated into our portfolio in the U.K. market, where we have a blend of efficient and flexible gas, coal and hydro generation," said CEO Philip Cox. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of July.  

und den Preis endgültig nach Norden schiessen.
Der Pre-Market spielt verrückt und es wurden bereits 3.50 bezahlt.
Ich spiele mit dem Gedanken heute nochmals einzusteigen.

Mir macht Sorgen, dass 243 Mill. Calpine (= 45 % des free float) short verkauft sind. Die Shorts decken sich jetzt bei der guten News ein, und das ergibt immer scharfe Ausbrüche nach oben. Oft aber geht es danach genauso schnell wieder nach unten. Es ist IMHO nicht kalkulierbar, wieviele der Shorts covern wollen oder müssen (viele sind weit höher, bei Kursen bis 100 Dollar, short gegangen).

Ich warte deshalb lieber wieder auf einen Rücksetzer in Regionen um 2,25 Dollar, falls das noch einmal kommt. Fundamental ist der Verkauf der Saltend-Anlage eine sehr gute Nachricht. Dann muss Calpine nicht mehr soviele High Tides bzw. Convertibles (Wandelanleihen) zum Bedienen der Schulden mehr rausgeben, die potenziell den Kurs verwässern können.

Das Kredit-Rating-Downgrade auf B mit negativem Ausblick wurde jedoch bislang nicht wieder aufgehoben. Daher halte ich einen Rücksetzer auf 2,25 Dollar für realistisch.

Calpine is in the business of providing natural gas-fired power to utilities. These utilities, such as PG&E (PCG:NYSE) , demand more power during peak periods, such as in California right now where high temperatures have led to a surge in air conditioner usage. So the second quarter should have been a decent period for Calpine.

Yet the company lost 51 cents a share in its second quarter, missing Wall Street estimates by 22 cents a share. Calpine, with all of its mass and scale and perfect geographical positioning in the warmest portion of the country at the right time of the year, only managed to operate at 40% of its capacity in the quarter. This yielded $215.1 million in EBITDA, which is not enough to cover its $333.7 million in interest expense for the quarter, let alone the $50 million to $100 million it usually spends just to keep its plants up and running. (Note that the company, which has a history of issuing guidance that it subsequently misses, said it expected to deliver $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in EBITDA in 2005. At this pace, it will not come close to this forecast.)

In addition, Calpine stated that July utilization had only risen to 51%. Industry watchers, however, would prefer, or even expect, a company of Calpine's stature to have closer to a minimum 60% of its capacity right now. Part of the problem with Calpine's business results is that plant breakdowns held back power generation in the quarter. This raises the interesting question of why the company did not fix its plants. Perhaps it is because Calpine doesn't have the cash to spend on repairs.

In the company's press release that accompanies its second- quarter earnings report, Calpine reported having $636 million in cash and $993.9 million in restricted cash. Of this reported restricted cash, some $400 million has already been spent by the company to repurchase some preferred securities.

This, in and of itself, is quite paltry relative to the company's $17.4 billion debt load and more than $1.5 billion in annual interest payments. But what's more concerning is that the $636 million cash figure may not be representative of the amount of cash Calpine can actually spend. And when the company's 10-Q is issued Tuesday, some of these concerns may come to light.

First, about $315 million of this cash is inaccessible because it is sitting on the balance sheet of its subsidiaries, as required by certain debt indentures that require a certain amount of collateral. In addition, the company has about $186 million in debt due on Aug. 15.

So of the $636 million in cash on hand, roughly $200 million may be free to fund operations, capital expenditures and further debt and interest payments in the third quarter. This type of liquidity is unsustainable for a public company with large capital expenditures. Calpine will struggle to shell out cash to make plant repairs or buy natural gas to generate power.

To be fair, the company has closed two large asset sales since the end of the June quarter that it said significantly improved its cash position. During the first week of July, the company closed the sales of its natural gas reserves in Canada, the Gulf Coast and California for net proceeds of $835 million. And on July 28, Calpine sold its Saltend facility for $848 million.

If you add this $1.7 billion to the $100 million to $200 million or so in cash the company had to fund its operations at the end of the second quarter, plus Street estimates for about $350 million in EBITDA this quarter and $122 million in proceeds from two other asset sales, you could argue the company is in a decent financial position to get through the end of the year, at least.

Unfortunately, when a company in Calpine's financial situation sells assets that have served as collateral for already existing debt obligations, new debt obligations are triggered because the bonds are no longer secured by the asset, as required in the debt indentures.

Take the sale of its natural gas plant. Of the $835 million raised with the natural gas sale, about $696 million is in escrow and needs to be used to buy back the debt that was secured by the asset. That's because only $139 million of the debt being used to secure the asset has been tendered, meaning the company is still on the hook for the $696 million that is sitting in escrow. In other words, this asset sale had a negligible impact on the company's ability to pay its bills.

And Calpine's other cash obligations -- capital expenditures on maintenance; interest expense; money owed to buy back $620 million in outstanding preferred stock already spent this quarter; the $400 million the company has used to buy back the preferred debt mentioned above; working capital required to secure natural gas to fire its plants -- leave the company with just about nothing at the end of the quarter.

Additionally, there is unconfirmed speculation among a number of hedge funds and analysts that Calpine's sales of its natural gas business back in early July has limited the company's ability to secure natural gas, its main feedstock for power generation. Calpine has a junk debt rating with credit agencies, so securing the financing to buy natural gas can prove quite costly. Without this feedstock for power, the company's total output may be held back during the peak months when demand, and profits, should be soaring.

The bottom line is that Calpine, at some point, is likely to run out of cash and assets to sell. Unlike Williams Companies (WMB:NYSE) or El Paso (EP:NYSE) , which both climbed out from under massive piles of debt over the past few years and are now operating sustainable business models, Calpine's asset sales are going to pay the interest expense on the financial obligations created by the asset sales themselves, despite the immediate appearance that the company is paying down debt.

When we called the company to ask the CFO for help understanding the financials, we were told he was on vacation and unavailable for comment. Its public relations department was able to confirm the majority of our numbers without dispute, but would not comment on our analysis.

Die Preise für Natural Gas sind seit dem 19. August - also in nur 12 Tagen - um geschlagene 33 % gestiegen: von 9 auf jetzt 12 Dollar (Intraday-Hoch). Für Calpine (heute: 3,03 USD) ist das langfristig tödlich, da die Mehrzahl der Calpine-Kraftwerke mit Gas befeuert wird. Das wird die Kapitaldecke weiter ausdünnen.

Ähnlich problematisch ist die Lage bei der hochverschuldeten Delta Airlines (Aktie heute: 1,17 USD), die durch den hohen Ölpreises aller Wahrscheinlichkeit in den Bankrott (Chapter 11) getrieben wird.

Katherine Potter, a spokesperson for Calpine, said via e-mail that the Bank of New York, which serves as the collateral trustee for the company's secured debt holders, has referred the company to a law firm, which claims to represents holders of Calpine's first lien notes. Calpine offered the proceeds to the first lien holders in July and $139 million of the notes were tendered to the company in response, Potter said. "As previously reported in our 10-Q and as permitted in our indentures, Calpine is permitted to use the proceeds from the sale of its oil and gas assets to acquire new natural gas and/or geothermal energy assets," she said. "A portion of those proceeds has been used to reinvest in new natural gas assets."

The Bank of New York stressed that it serves only an administrative role. "We have no comment on the discussions between the interested parties," a spokesman said. In May, the company announced a plan to cut $3 billion of debt by selling assets and using the money to pay down bonds.

Calpine, which carries junk-bond ratings, has been fighting to remain afloat since the collapse of its share price following the Enron-related meltdown of the merchant energy group. Most recently, it formed a energy marketing and trading business with Bear Stearns in a deal designed to reduce Calpine's collateral requirements and allow it to buy and sell natural gas and power, on a short-term basis, as an A-rated entity.


Board Members Bolt From Calpine
By William Gabrielski (TheStreet.com)
9/21/2005 11:36

Calpine (CPN: NYSE) shares are under more pressure this morning, following Tuesday night's announcement that two board members -- Jeffrey Garten and John Wilson -- are leaving the company.

Garten is a well-respected businessman who served as undersecretary of commerce for former President Bill Clinton. Garten is the current dean of the Yale School of Management and has a strong Wall Street bloodline, including stints at The Blackstone Group and Shearson Lehman. Wilson joined Calpine's board in 1997, shortly after the company's IPO, and plans to continue to serve as a faculty member of the University of California at Berkeley.

The company issued a press release saying the board had named William J. Keese, former chairman of the California Energy Commission, and Walter L. Revell, chairman and chief executive officer of Revell Investments International, to replace Garten and Wilson on the board.

The speculation among debt analysts and traders I spoke with is that the departure of Garten, which was effective as of Sept. 14, could be a sign that Calpine's walls are caving in and that Garten does not want to be associated with a company that could be on the verge of insolvency. This seems like a fair assessment based on my research, and I'd expect Calpine's current financial situation to gain more attention in light of this. I have contacted the company regarding these departures and am awaiting comment.

In other news, Calpine's planned $400 million preferred offering is not receiving a positive reaction on the Street. The deal size has been cut to $300 million , according to a report from DebtWire.com. And Calpine now plans to wait until February to buy back the $150 million preferred it issued in August, raising the question as to whether it will be able to get the $300 million deal done at all. But even if the deal does get done, the amount of time that has passed since the company announced its plans to issue these preferred securities leads me to believe the terms will not be favorable to Calpine.

By delaying the repayment of the $150 million, and cutting the deal size of the recently proposed preferred offering from $400 million to $300 million, Calpine's liquidity situation could be in an even worse position than I originally believed.

Finally, in response to Tuesday's column, Calpine sent me an email saying it could use the proceeds from its natural gas asset sale to acquire natural gas. The bondholders continue to disagree. But no matter who turns out to be right, the fact that Calpine's access to the funds it has with Bank of New York has been cut off is a negative for the company's ability to fund operations and secure natural gas.