Tag | Region | Art des Termins | HSBC TuB | Konsens | Vorperiode |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Montag | JAP | BIP (2. Schätzung), 4. Quartal 2006 (00.50) | 1,5 % gg. Vq. | 1,3 % gg. Vq. | 0,1 % gg. Vq. |
Dienstag | BRD | ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen, März (11.00) | -1,0 | 3,1 | 2,9 |
USA | Einzelhandelsumsätze, Feb. (13.30) | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | 0,0 % gg. Vm. | |
ex Autos, Feb. (13.30) | 0,0 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | ||
Mittwoch | USA | Leistungsbilanz, 4. Quartal 2006 (13.30) | -202,0 Mrd. USD | -203,0 Mrd. USD. | -225,6 Mrd. USD |
Donnerstag | CHF | SNB-Zinsentscheidung (09.30) | |||
EUR | Konsumentenpreise, Feb. (11.00) | 1,9 % gg. Vj. | 1,8 % gg. Vj. | 1,8 % gg. Vj. | |
NOR | Norges Bank Zinsentscheidung (13.00) | ||||
USA | Empire State Index, März (13.30) | 16,0 | 17,0 | 24,4 | |
Produzentenpreise, Feb. (13.30) | 0,6 % gg. Vm. | 0,4 % gg. Vm. | -0,6 % gg. Vm. | ||
Kernrate, Feb. (13.30) | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | ||
Philly Fed Index, März (17.00) | 0,0 | 4,0 | 0,6 | ||
Freitag | USA | Konsumentenpreise, Feb. (13.30) | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | 0,2 % gg. Vm. |
Kernrate, Feb. (13.30) | 0,1 % gg. Vm. | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | ||
Industrieproduktion, Feb. (14.15) | 0,2 % gg. Vm. | 0,3 % gg. Vm. | -0,5 % gg. Vm. | ||
Kapazitätsauslastung, Feb. (14.15) | 81,2 % | 81,3 % | 81,2 % | ||
Konsumentenvert. Uni Michigan, März (15.00) | 87,0 | 90,0 | 91,3 |
Die Industrieproduktion in den USA wies in vier der letzten fünf Monate negative Monatswerte aus und offenbart damit eine nachlassende Dynamik im industriellen Sektor, die von verschiedenen Stimmungsindikatoren angezeigt worden ist. Im Februar rechnen wir jedoch mit einem leichten Rebound (Prognose: +0,2 % gg. Vm.), nachdem das Beige Book der USNotenbank in den meisten Distrikten eine zunehmende Aktivität konstatiert hat. Zudem ist der nationale ISM-Index zuletzt wieder über die Marke von 50 gestiegen und signalisiert damit eine Expansion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Insgesamt dürfte die Erholung aber nur moderat ausfallen. Die Kapazitätsauslastung, die sich seit dem Sommer 2006 wieder auf dem Rückzug befindet, sollte vor diesem Hintergrund unverändert bleiben und damit keinen zusätzlichen Preisdruck anzeigen (Veröffentlichung am Freitag). Das Hauptaugenmerk der Marktteilnehmer wird sich in der kommenden Woche wohl auf die anstehenden US-Preisdaten für den Februar richten. Während der Anstieg der Energiepreise bei den Produzentenpreisen (Donnerstag) in der allgemeinen Rate ein deutliches Plus bewirken dürfte, rechnen wir bei der Kernrate mit einem moderateren Zuwachs. Hier sollten sich unveränderte Preise im Automobilsektor dämpfend auf die Entwicklung der Teuerung auswirken. Ein ähnliches Bild zeichnet sich auch bei den Konsumentenpreisen ab (s. S. 2). Dabei gehen wir davon aus, dass einige der Komponenten, die im Januar zu einem überraschend deutlichen Plus in der Kernrate (0,3 %) geführt haben, im aktuellen Berichtsmonat rückläufig waren (Freitag). Die Korrektur an den Aktienmärkten, wieder steigende Energiepreise und die nachlassende Dynamik am Arbeitsmarkt dürften den Optimismus der Verbraucher eintrüben. Dies sollte das Konsumentenvertrauen der Universität Michigan zum Ausdruck bringen, bei dem wir am Freitag mit einem deutlichen Rückgang rechnen. Bei den Einzelhandelsumsätzen zeichnet sich nur ein moderates Plus ab. Die Jahresrate dürfte aufgrund von Basiseffekten von 2,2 % auf 3,6 % steigen, liegt aber weiter deutlich unter dem Jahresdurchschnitt 2006 (6,4 %).
Beim Bund-Future gilt es in der kommenden Woche, die Unterstützungen bei 115,75/68 zu verteidigen, um weitergehende Kursverluste zu vermeiden. Der Euro dürfte die Haltemarken bei 1,3068/50 USD testen.
Um den vollständigen Inhalt unserer Publikation "Kapitalmarktausblick" zu lesen (inkl. Charts, Tabellen und Graphiken), downloaden Sie bitte die aktuelle
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When a certain $126,000 subprime loan on a $696,000 house on the West Coast failed to produce a single mortgage payment, alarm bells went off at Clayton Holdings, a company that monitors credit risk.
Closer scrutiny revealed other red flags. The borrower's previous rent payment had been $1,000, compared to the $4,482 she was supposed to be shelling out for both the primary loan and the $126,000 piggyback. And her stated income was $84,000 even though she was an hourly worker at Target.
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"We do an autopsy to find out what caused the loss of blood," says Keith Johnson, Clayton's COO. "It's a CSI subprime."
In the past few weeks, the bodies have been piling up fast and furiously. Fallout from subprime mortgages - that is, home loans to borrowers with a blemished credit history - gone bad has wreaked havoc on the industry.
Big names Washington Mutual (Charts) and HSBC have reported hits tied to their subprime business and there has been a nonstop barrage of bad news for major subprime lenders, including New Century Financial (Charts) and NovaStar Financial (Charts).
Now the worry is what happens to the economy if enough homeowners go into default and to the financial markets if enough investors take a bath on mortgage-related securities.
The market may want to brace itself for more surprises. "To one degree or another, all of these lenders are facing the same kind of difficulty," says Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com.
Last year, 13.5 percent of mortgages originated in the U.S. were subprime, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, compared to 2.6 percent in 2000. Overall, the subprime market was $600 billion in 2006, 20 percent of the $3 trillion mortgage market, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. In 2001, subprime loans made ups just 5.6 percent of mortgage dollars.
By the end of 2006, subprime delinquencies more than 60 days late jumped to almost 13 percent, compared to 8 percent a year earlier, according to LoanPerformance.
<!--startclickprintexclude-->How real estate investors are handling the downturn <!--endclickprintexclude-->As for foreclosures, they're currently running 25 percent higher than they were this time last year, according to RealtyTrac. "We don't have high unemployment, high interest rates or a slowing economy, but we're seeing the number of foreclosure filings pushed above historic averages," says Rick Sharga, a marketing exec for RealtyTrac. "You can't underestimate the effect of higher risk loans."
Adding to the problem are jittery lenders who have suddenly begun to tighten their standards. "You're seeing credit score requirements being increased. You're seeing documentation firming up," says Bob Walters, chief economist with Quicken Loans. "Fewer people will get loans and maybe rightly so."
The higher hurdles, while perhaps healthy for the long term, will cause a short- term credit crunch. Translation: delinquencies and foreclosures should rise, which will create more credit problems in a vicious cycle that will probably weigh on housing for the rest of the year.
None of this is good news to investors in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities, which now account for some 20 percent of the global fixed income market, the largest component.
And plenty of investors have been drawn into the riskier subprime pieces of these mortgage-backed securities that yield higher payoffs, instead of sticking with highly rated mortgage securities.
Particularly troubling for investors is the rapidly deteriorating quality of subprime vintages originated in 2005 and 2006, years when lenders were downright promiscuous about who they loaned money to.
Serious delinquencies - defined as loans at least 60 days late or in foreclosure or bankruptcy - for a 5-month old loan originated in 2006 is running at almost 4 percent, according to Moody's, compared to 2.2 percent for a similar loan originated in 2004.
The scariest part of that statistic is the fact that 2006 borrowers are still in their fixed-rate period. "What will they do when their payment starts to rise?" says Glenn Costello of Fitch Ratings.
The worry then is that somebody, somewhere has been overly aggressive in their subprime investments and goes belly up, spooking investors and sparking a world financial crisis.
That, of course, is just the nightmare scenario and not everybody is convinced the fallout will be so widespread. "I think [the risk] is containable," says Lewis Ranieri, Chairman of private equity firm Hyperion, who developed the idea of mortgage-backed securities in the 1970s when he worked at Salomon Brothers. "I don't think this is going to be a cataclysm."
Many point to last fall's implosion of hedge fund Amaranth as a sign that markets can handle these kinds of setbacks.
But not everyone finds that argument soothing. "If there is a fault line in the global financial system, it runs through the U.S. mortgage market," says Zandi. "Everyone throws up Amaranth, but that involved a small market with little implication for any other asset class. If some hedge fund blows up on a residential mortgage-backed securities investment, that has very different kinds of implications because it is the biggest chunk of the global fixed income market. So the ripples will be more like waves, and it could turn into a tsunami."
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- New Century Financial shares fell to an eight-year low on Friday after analysts said the largest independent U.S. subprime lender, which faces a criminal probe and has stopped making new loans, may soon seek bankruptcy protection.
Analysts said Irvine, California-based New Century is unlikely to resolve disputes with lenders, including at least five that have so far refused to waive borrowing covenants.
<!--startclickprintexclude-->New Century gets a $265M helping hand <!--endclickprintexclude--><!--startclickprintexclude--><!-- VIDEOREAP -->
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Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Kenneth Bruce and JPMorgan analyst Andrew Wessel both wrote that a bankruptcy filing "seems imminent."
A New Century spokeswoman declined immediate comment.
In late-afternoon trading, New Century (down $0.66 to $3.21, Charts) shares fell 17 percent. They earlier fell to $2.96, their lowest level since October 1998. The shares began the year at $31.59.
Friday's decline came a day after New Century said it stopped taking loan applications, lined up $265 million of funding secured by its mortgage loan portfolio and other assets, and arranged to refinance $710 million of loans.
Morgan Stanley provided the financing, people familiar with the matter said. New Century, a real estate investment trust, has said it made $51.6 billion of subprime loans in 2006.
<!--startclickprintexclude-->Subprime woes: How far, how wide? <!--endclickprintexclude-->Analysts said New Century, having pledged most of its assets as collateral, has little left to offer creditors.
"It is likely that New Century just used up its last option to avoid collapse," Wessel wrote.
Subprime lenders, which make loans to people with poor credit histories, have suffered from rising defaults. More than 20 have quit lending or gone bankrupt in the past year.
Chris Brendler, a Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst, wrote that New Century's value if it were liquidated could be negative $63 million, and "in a 'fire sale' situation, likely lower."
Still, he said the REIT "is more valuable as an acquisition candidate given its large origination and servicing platforms."
<!--startclickprintexclude-->Home prices: Don't expect quick rebound <!--endclickprintexclude-->New Century a week ago disclosed a federal criminal probe into its accounting and trading in its securities, and said its survival might depend on relief from lenders. Its market value has fallen in 2007 to around $200 million from $1.75 billion.
Among shares of other subprime lenders, Accredited Home Lenders (down $1.00 to $15.78, Charts) fell as much as 12 percent Friday, and NovaStar (down $0.17 to $5.24, Charts) as much as 6.1 percent.
<!--startclickprintexclude-->Short-sellers have been waiting for New Century's troubles to snowball, with the number of shares held short, meaning investors expect them to go down, rising by nearly a third between Jan. 12 and Feb. 12, the latest date for which data are available. About one-third of New Century's public float is held short, and profit-taking taking by bears will almost surely create a brief short squeeze at some point as the stock hurtles downward.
Bruce, at Merrill Lynch, wrote that he would not be surprised to see a short-cover rally, but said it could be short-lived, "as we think there is little good news in the offing. Given that the financial markets are pricing risk meaningfully higher, we think fundamentals of NEW will continue to erode and we place little value in the financial assets of the company, given that liquidation would likely erode the value of the enterprise entirely. Bankruptcy could prove to be the best way to preserve value or otherwise limit losses."
It's not exactly a situation where chance favors the bold, particularly because the Street views the situation as being out of New Century's hands.
Asian stocks were higher in the afternoon session Monday, continuing a recovery from a recent slide, as a stronger U.S. dollar boosted exporters and after U.S. jobs data reassured investors about the health of the world's biggest economy.
The report, released on Friday, showed the U.S. economy added 97,000 jobs in February -- the smallest gain in two years -- but jobs growth in prior months was revised higher and the
unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% from 4.6%.
That jobs data strengthened the U.S. dollar Friday as it eased speculation of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar was holding on to these gains in the Monday morning session.
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average
#8b8f98 1px solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5px; BORDER-TOP: #8b8f98 1px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 10px; BORDER-LEFT: #8b8f98 1px solid" width=300 bgColor=#eeeeee height=50>NIKKEI 225 INDEX (NIKKEI) 17283.76 119.72 +0.7% Tokyo Stock Exchange |
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Australian shares firmed, with market sentiment lifted by gains on Wall Street after upbeat jobs data while CSL rose on earnings hopes. Gains for mining giant BHP Billiton
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South Korea's Kospi Index hit a two week high, erasing their loss for the year, as exporters rose on easing worries about the global economy after U.S. jobs data was not as bad as feared, while Japan's GDP grew within consensus. Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering surged after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral, while lenders such as Kookmin Bank extended recent gains with investors expecting stable earnings for the year.
Hong Kong stocks rose as China Mobile rebounded after tracker funds adjusted their portfolios to reflect the stock's lower weighting in accordance with the latest Hang Seng Index revision. Singapore's Straits Times Index was higher.
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Price: US$/lb |
#003399">Copper | March 12,04:51 |
Bid/Ask | 2.8192 | - | 2.8238 |
Change | +0.0340 | +1.22% | |
Low/High | 2.7852 | - | 2.8238 |
Charts |
#003399">Nickel | March 12,04:56 |
Bid/Ask | 20.4457 | - | 20.5364 |
Change | +0.0454 | +0.22% | |
Low/High | 20.3550 | - | 20.5364 |
Charts |
#003399">Aluminum | March 12,04:55 |
Bid/Ask | 1.2395 | - | 1.2409 |
Change | +0.0064 | +0.51% | |
Low/High | 1.2350 | - | 1.2441 |
Charts |
#003399">Zinc | March 12,04:56 |
Bid/Ask | 1.4831 | - | 1.4922 |
Change | +0.0045 | +0.31% | |
Low/High | 1.4786 | - | 1.5012 |
Charts |
#003399">Lead | March 12,04:55 |
Bid/Ask | 0.8461 | - | 0.8484 |
Change | +0.0204 | +2.47% | |
Low/High | 0.8212 | - | 0.8484 |
Charts |