All That Hot Air Is Re-Inflating The Bubble 08/21
This morning, comments by Intel's Chief Executive Craig Barrett's comments sent semiconductor stocks shooting higher. Barrett said Intel is "in the middle of upgrading and buying a substantial number of PCs and we see some other examples around the world that that is happening."
We don't know about you, but we've just got to ask: "What the heck are stock buyers thinking?" Every little comment about the sale of an extra computer or chip or cell phone seems to spark furious rallies. But nobody's stopping to think about the fact that sales are still way down from bubble heights -- or that the supposed "rebound" is likely just a temporary blip. Indeed, investors are reacting to every nugget of tepid news as if it's proof that profit nirvana is just around the corner.
Take Broadcom for example. This week, the chip company said revenue in the current quarter will likely come in at about $416 million. That was above its prior sales forecast of up to $410 million. Just in case you don't have a calculator handy, that means revenue might exceed expectations by a whopping 1.5%. And yet, investors latched on to the announcement like it was the best news they ever heard, bidding the stock up 11%. Since October, Broadcom's share price has more than doubled to around $25 -- giving it a price to earnings ratio of 225!
Frankly, investors are acting like its 1999 again. You know what happened then, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a similar meltdown this time around.
This morning, comments by Intel's Chief Executive Craig Barrett's comments sent semiconductor stocks shooting higher. Barrett said Intel is "in the middle of upgrading and buying a substantial number of PCs and we see some other examples around the world that that is happening."
We don't know about you, but we've just got to ask: "What the heck are stock buyers thinking?" Every little comment about the sale of an extra computer or chip or cell phone seems to spark furious rallies. But nobody's stopping to think about the fact that sales are still way down from bubble heights -- or that the supposed "rebound" is likely just a temporary blip. Indeed, investors are reacting to every nugget of tepid news as if it's proof that profit nirvana is just around the corner.
Take Broadcom for example. This week, the chip company said revenue in the current quarter will likely come in at about $416 million. That was above its prior sales forecast of up to $410 million. Just in case you don't have a calculator handy, that means revenue might exceed expectations by a whopping 1.5%. And yet, investors latched on to the announcement like it was the best news they ever heard, bidding the stock up 11%. Since October, Broadcom's share price has more than doubled to around $25 -- giving it a price to earnings ratio of 225!
Frankly, investors are acting like its 1999 again. You know what happened then, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a similar meltdown this time around.
