Aixtron- und die Banken stufen fröhlich auf kaufen

Da wird abgeladen was nur geht.Der ganze Anstieg abverkauft.

was läuft und zwar bei allen aktien, die laufen mehr oder weniger in etwas individueller form dem dax hinterher.

Statt sich dieser Diskussion im Forum zu stellen, hat Aixtron die sehr relevante Thematik bewusst ausgeblendet und statt dessen versucht allen usern hier im Netz zu erklären, dass Aixtron im  III. Quartal eigentlich einen beachtlichen Gewinn gemacht hätte, wenn, ja wenn nicht, die Steuer wäre, der Dollarkurs, die Bilanzierungsvorschriften..... Das ganze mit seiner gleichbleibenden Pöbelei. 

Ich darf die verehrte Leserschaft nun auf einen Beitrag in "Digitimes Bits and Chips"  vom 23.12.2011 aufmerksam machen:   

"Industry sources believe the China-made MOCVD equipment will only be sold around US$1-1.6 million per unit compared to equipment from international firms which cost around US$2 million" (Quelle: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20111223PD203.html).

2 Mio USD entspricht rd. 1,5 Mio Euro !

Aber wir dürfen alle getrost unterstellen, dass wahrscheinlich lt. Aktienmensch auch diese Quelle "noch größeren Unsinn"  schreibt. So isser halt unser Aktienmensch. Immer selbstlos in der Sache !

@ Juliette: Haben Sie zwischenzeitlich den Beitrag über die Preisnachlässe gefunden ? Schauen Sie mal auf die Verlautbarungen der DB Nov 2011.

da schreibt ein magazinchen was von "etwa 2 mio. USD" und der user, der seinem namen alle ehre macht, läuft damit gleich durch welt  und fühlt sich bestätigt. Wieso man dann auch noch nen ozean für so einen kleinen fisch braucht, erschliesst sich mir schon gar nicht.

aber ich gebe mal trotzdem zu bedenken, dass "etwa" bei mit durchaus auch 2,5 mio. USD sein können. Und wenn Veeco seine weit weniger produktiven Anlagen für 1,5 Mio. und Aixtron ihre für 2,5 Mio. verkauft, kommt man am Ende auch bei "etwa 2Mio. USD" raus

womit dein käse nicht ein bisschen schmackhafter geworden ist...

aber trotzdem herzlichen glückwunsch. du hast es wenigstens versucht und sicher erneut dein bestes gegeben.

du zwar diesen artikel bemühst, um die Frage nach den Preisen zu deinen Gunsten ausfallen zu lassen, auf der anderen seite aber die 3-4 Statements der letzten Tage, die den technologischen Vorsprung Aixtrons bestätigen, nicht zitierst.

Dabei war doch gerade das euer (deines und das von beath, der inzwischen weitergezogen ist und sich wahrscheinlichs chief darüber lacht, dass du auf seinen Zug aufgesprungen bist) hauptargument für Veeco und gegen Aixtron.

Nun stellt sich heraus, dass die Aixtron-Anlage aber fast 30% effizienter ist als das beste Veeco-Maschinchen. Und so erklärt sich natürlich auch der Preisunterschied.
und genauso aus diesem Grund kaufen die billigheimer aus china, die vom business noch gar keine ahnung haben, zunächst erstmal die Billigprdukte, während die Samsungs dieser Welt voll auf Aixtron setzen. Qualität hat eben seinen Preis.

Und wie Goldman Sachs in der Studie treffend bemerkt hat, ist in südkorea zurzeit eben nicht viel los.Man hat 2009 und 2010 massig Maschinen bestellt und macht nun päuschen. Irgendwann in nicht allzu ferner zukunft wird dann aber von südkorea aus, der allgemeinbeleuchtungszyklus gestartet und die richtung vorgegeben. spätestens dann werden die chinesen mitbekommen, dass veeco zweitklassige ware produziert und entweder umschwenken (wenn man denn Qualitätsanbieter werden will, was ich für die vielzahl nicht zutreffen wird) oder zweitklassige ware produzieren.

herrlich! macht weiter so jungs!
besser als fernsehen...

fachlich kommt zwar nicht mehr viel ( zumindest vom Aktienmensch, der versucht eigentlich nur zu beleidigen ) )
aber macht so weiter

bringt mir spass

www.daf.fm/video/...isch-einsteigen-50150405-DE000A0WMPJ6.html

Kaufempfehlungen der Commerzbank bringen so viel wie eine Kaufempfehlung einer Dorfsparkasse.

Zuviel in der PR-Abteilung gelauscht ?

Sie sollten das Stockwerk, wechseln und gelegentlich in der Buchhaltung 'vor-bei-schauen'.

Und nach Weihnachten aber ganz schnell in die Bücherei. Lesen Sie sich einmal in die Statistik ein.

Was mich nur wundert, nein eigentlich auch wieder nicht, wieso bezeichnen Sie sich noch als nicht Investierter. Nach Ihrer, nach außen getragenen Überzeugung, kann es doch mit dem Kurs nur noch Richtung Norden gehen. Da haben Sie aber schon eine Menge Geld verschenkt....forum-media.finanzen.net/forum/smiley/smiley-innocent.gif" style="max-width:560px" />

Commerzbank Analysten scheinen mal wieder Recht zu behalten - das Teil läuft scheinbar auf die 14,40 zu.
Werde nächste Woche gleich mal einsteigen.

 

 

forum-media.finanzen.net/forum/smiley/smiley-zunge.gif" style="max-width:560px" />

falls sich Chart weiter so harmonisch verläuft.

Sie wieder !

Jahresanfangsrally bis Jahresendrally an einem Stück Ohne Stop !

Das wär was, gelle ?

Fachmann wundert sich (nicht).

10% plus in 2 Tagen.

War auch nicht anders zu erwarten. bodenbildung abgeschlossen, Kaufsignale arbeiten.
Rein operativ sollte man den Höhepunkt der Durststrecke überwunden haben. Maximal noch mal 2 schwache Quartale on top, dann spätestens dürfte die allgemeinbeleuchtung für starke Ordereingänge sorgen.Wenn jetzt nicht wieder von links oder rechts irgendwelche Einschläge den Gesamtmarkt treffen, wird die Börse die belebung im zweiten Halbjhar langsam beginnen einzupreisen. Wenn dann die ersten Großaufträge von Samsung und Co erst da sind, wird dann auch der Laie erkennen, dass er bislang daneben lag und zu Kursen von mehr als 20 Euro aufspringen.

Könnte aber auch sein das der "Laie sich gar nicht wundert", sondern gar kein Laie sondern ein Vollpfost... äh Vollprofi ist..

Der immer blödes Zeugs schreibt um hier die armen Lämmer zu verunsichern .

Dann kann er  bequem und preiswert deren Aktien kaufen! 

Böser Laie , macht man den soetwas ?

 

Scanning the latest reports from a quartet of Wall Street analysts -- Citi's Tim Arcuri, Barclays' CJ Muse, Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar, and Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah -- a number of key themes emerge explaining what's driving a MOCVD slump in 2011-2012 (and maybe beyond), and how and when the situation might improve. There is much interest and optimism in China's new lighting roadmap and the clarity it provides for LED adoption (and as a beacon for other regions to follow). The plan includes a RMB 8B/US$1.3B direct demand subsidy/rebate program for consumers, which translates to about ~135M 6W-equivalent bulbs, highlights Citi's Tim Arcuri. That's enough to justify "anywhere from 25-60 new MOCVD reactors," he says. Unfortunately, that's only ~10% of the MOCVD capacity already shipped into China over the past few years. That's the crux of the problem: rampant capacity additions on the hopes that end-markets would justify them. But those bets aren't (yet) paying off, which has given credence to the idea of a "bubble" that needs to be deflated before it rips apart. (Strategies Unlimited's Tom Hausken addresses the extent of the LED overexpansion, particularly China's massive investments, in a recent column for Solid State Technology.) The pull from end markets hasn't been as strong as hoped: Weak macroeconomic environment have undercut TV sales, and OEMs have pushed back on using more devices. And an intensifying credit crunch has dampened not only TV sales but also firms' subsidy strategies -- many regions haven't paid out previously committed subsidies, even though LED chipmakers have already received the tools and in some cases even put them into production already, notes Citi's Tim Arcuri. Some regions (e.g. Wuhu) could extend their timeline (but not amount) for subsidies, while other regions (e.g. Yangzhou) are firm with a 12/31/2011 tool shipment cutoff date. From a strictly manufacturing and tool-supplier perspective, how is this all shaping up? Slowing tool demand Barclays' CJ Muse sees the MOCVD market in total at ~700 installed tools (down from nearly 800 tools in 2010), with about a -9% difference in 2H11 MOCVD chamber revenues vs. 1H11 -- but actual single-chamber-equivalent installations will be -26%. But Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar points out VECO's 3Q11 MOCVD orders extrapolate to a ~400 tools/year runrate for the entire LED industry, about half of where they are now. Here's Muse's list of who's been buying MOCVD tools: Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah digs into specific customer procurement cutbacks: - Seoul Semi (Korea) has only spent a fraction of its pledged 80B won in capex. - LG Innotek (Korea) hasn't bought any tools this year and doesn't plan any in 2012 either. - Sanan (China) isn't buying any new tools until 2012 - Elec-Tech (China) has bought barely a quarter of its planned 130-tool procurement and probably will revise down its 180-tool plan for YE2012. - Jiangsu Canyang (China) also is cutting its 2011 capex budget. - Genesis Photonics (Taiwan) is expected to buy only 8 MOCVD tools instead of a planned 10 tools. Trimming and M&A Meanwhile, LED makers have been reining in their production. Wall Street analysts universally agree that utilization rates are very low, though the exact number varies by region: anywhere from 60% to ~50%, and maybe even lower. "The hoped-for recovery in tool demand among the Korean and Taiwanese players never materialized," Muse writes. Don't expect this to improve at least for the next few quarters. Many have been anticipating a wave of consolidation to help improve the LED market and wipe out overcapacity and underutilization. Muse notes the exit of GCL -- before it even started production -- is "the first in likely many market exits, similar to what we saw in the Taiwan market several years ago." Even the threat (or promise) of consolidation has ramifications. Some LED chipmakers likely will cancel more orders and slow down their own expansions, viewing upcoming consolidation as a way to gain capacity instead, Arcuri points out. And as companies consolidate, more (used) tools will be available to the rest of the market as an alternative to new purchases -- though some LED firms might be hesitant to take on used (even "unpackaged") tools that might have already been exposed to another LED maker's process recipes, Muse points out. 2012 projections "We expect a multi-year downcycle in the MOCVD tool space," says Muse. Arcuri thinks MOCVD orders will keep declining for at least another three quarters. "The backlog cancellations have only just begun," Arcuri warns, predicting that "net orders could actually approach zero" in 4Q11 and 1Q12. "There are [...] signs this situation gets worse before it gets better." All four analysts are on the same page with 2012 expectations: around -40% fewer MOCVD shipments to roughly 400-450 units; China probably pulling back more strongly, Taiwan and Korea perhaps less so. (Initial estimates were for 600 tools or even 700.) Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar sees a possible 2H12 upside if the TV backlighting market picks up. But even those levels might be optimistic. "It is hard to see the industry taking >350 MOCVD tools next year," Arcuri declares. And Kumar has a worst-case scenario of 350-400 MOCVD units in 2012. Upswing on the horizon For those LED firms (and suppliers) who can weather this bubble and slowdown, circle 2013 on the calendar. "We do believe there is one last push in MOCVD tool demand in 2013/2014," Arcuri writes. Muse sticks with the idea of "a prolonged downturn" in LED tool demand lasting through 2013. That year should be a little better, assuming still-gradual LED demand growth, perhaps increasing overall MOCVD units to ~440 www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/2011/11/...e-weve-only-just-begun.html ews Editor C.: v-r, FRA

Scanning the latest reports from a quartet of Wall Street analysts -- Citi's Tim Arcuri, Barclays' CJ Muse, Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar, and Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah -- a number of key themes emerge explaining what's driving a MOCVD slump in 2011-2012 (and maybe beyond), and how and when the situation might improve. There is much interest and optimism in China's new lighting roadmap and the clarity it provides for LED adoption (and as a beacon for other regions to follow). The plan includes a RMB 8B/US$1.3B direct demand subsidy/rebate program for consumers, which translates to about ~135M 6W-equivalent bulbs, highlights Citi's Tim Arcuri. That's enough to justify "anywhere from 25-60 new MOCVD reactors," he says. Unfortunately, that's only ~10% of the MOCVD capacity already shipped into China over the past few years. That's the crux of the problem: rampant capacity additions on the hopes that end-markets would justify them. But those bets aren't (yet) paying off, which has given credence to the idea of a "bubble" that needs to be deflated before it rips apart. (Strategies Unlimited's Tom Hausken addresses the extent of the LED overexpansion, particularly China's massive investments, in a recent column for Solid State Technology.) The pull from end markets hasn't been as strong as hoped: Weak macroeconomic environment have undercut TV sales, and OEMs have pushed back on using more devices. And an intensifying credit crunch has dampened not only TV sales but also firms' subsidy strategies -- many regions haven't paid out previously committed subsidies, even though LED chipmakers have already received the tools and in some cases even put them into production already, notes Citi's Tim Arcuri. Some regions (e.g. Wuhu) could extend their timeline (but not amount) for subsidies, while other regions (e.g. Yangzhou) are firm with a 12/31/2011 tool shipment cutoff date. From a strictly manufacturing and tool-supplier perspective, how is this all shaping up? Slowing tool demand Barclays' CJ Muse sees the MOCVD market in total at ~700 installed tools (down from nearly 800 tools in 2010), with about a -9% difference in 2H11 MOCVD chamber revenues vs. 1H11 -- but actual single-chamber-equivalent installations will be -26%. But Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar points out VECO's 3Q11 MOCVD orders extrapolate to a ~400 tools/year runrate for the entire LED industry, about half of where they are now. Here's Muse's list of who's been buying MOCVD tools: Deutsche Bank's Vishal Shah digs into specific customer procurement cutbacks: - Seoul Semi (Korea) has only spent a fraction of its pledged 80B won in capex. - LG Innotek (Korea) hasn't bought any tools this year and doesn't plan any in 2012 either. - Sanan (China) isn't buying any new tools until 2012 - Elec-Tech (China) has bought barely a quarter of its planned 130-tool procurement and probably will revise down its 180-tool plan for YE2012. - Jiangsu Canyang (China) also is cutting its 2011 capex budget. - Genesis Photonics (Taiwan) is expected to buy only 8 MOCVD tools instead of a planned 10 tools. Trimming and M&A Meanwhile, LED makers have been reining in their production. Wall Street analysts universally agree that utilization rates are very low, though the exact number varies by region: anywhere from 60% to ~50%, and maybe even lower. "The hoped-for recovery in tool demand among the Korean and Taiwanese players never materialized," Muse writes. Don't expect this to improve at least for the next few quarters. Many have been anticipating a wave of consolidation to help improve the LED market and wipe out overcapacity and underutilization. Muse notes the exit of GCL -- before it even started production -- is "the first in likely many market exits, similar to what we saw in the Taiwan market several years ago." Even the threat (or promise) of consolidation has ramifications. Some LED chipmakers likely will cancel more orders and slow down their own expansions, viewing upcoming consolidation as a way to gain capacity instead, Arcuri points out. And as companies consolidate, more (used) tools will be available to the rest of the market as an alternative to new purchases -- though some LED firms might be hesitant to take on used (even "unpackaged") tools that might have already been exposed to another LED maker's process recipes, Muse points out. 2012 projections "We expect a multi-year downcycle in the MOCVD tool space," says Muse. Arcuri thinks MOCVD orders will keep declining for at least another three quarters. "The backlog cancellations have only just begun," Arcuri warns, predicting that "net orders could actually approach zero" in 4Q11 and 1Q12. "There are [...] signs this situation gets worse before it gets better." All four analysts are on the same page with 2012 expectations: around -40% fewer MOCVD shipments to roughly 400-450 units; China probably pulling back more strongly, Taiwan and Korea perhaps less so. (Initial estimates were for 600 tools or even 700.) Credit Suisse's Satya Kumar sees a possible 2H12 upside if the TV backlighting market picks up. But even those levels might be optimistic. "It is hard to see the industry taking >350 MOCVD tools next year," Arcuri declares. And Kumar has a worst-case scenario of 350-400 MOCVD units in 2012. Upswing on the horizon For those LED firms (and suppliers) who can weather this bubble and slowdown, circle 2013 on the calendar. "We do believe there is one last push in MOCVD tool demand in 2013/2014," Arcuri writes. Muse sticks with the idea of "a prolonged downturn" in LED tool demand lasting through 2013. That year should be a little better, assuming still-gradual LED demand growth, perhaps increasing overall MOCVD units to ~440 www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/2011/11/...e-weve-only-just-begun.html ews Editor C.: v-r, FRA

dachte schon, ihm wäre seine dummdreisten kommentare aus Zeiten, wo die aktie noch bei 8,60 stand, mittlerweile peinlich.

aber das wäre wohl auch zu schön gewesen....

und tolle geschichten hat er mitgebracht. blöd nur, dass die mindestens 4-8 wochen alt sind, am markt jedem bekannt und entsprechend lange eingepreist.

Excess LED capacity to continue in 2012, says Epistar president Siu Han, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 3 January 2012]

The global production capacity of LED epitaxial wafers and chips exceeded the market demand in 2011 and the situation is expected to continue in 2012, according to president M.J. Chou for Taiwan-based Epistar.

Following South Korea-based makers' expanding LED production capacities since 2009, China-based makers did so by adding a total of 245 MOCVD sets in 2010 and 420 ones in 2011, resulting in a global total of more than 1,500 MOCVD sets at the end of 2011, according to industry sources in Taiwan. The global supply of 174 million LED chips was 34.9% in excess of the global demand for 129 billion chips in 2011, the sources pointed out.

South Korea-based makers of LED chips utilized 50% of their production capacities on average in 2011, while the average utilization rate for Taiwan-based fellow makers was 50-60%, Chou noted. If South Korea-, Taiwan- and China-based makers continue capacity expansion, the total capacity will continue to exceed market demand in 2012, Chou pointed out.

Demand for LED chips used in LED backlight units of LCD TVs will grow along with increasing LED-backlit penetration of LCD TVs, but prices for LED chips tend to fall, Chou indicated. LED lighting, the other application of LED chips, is in considerably slowly rather than rapidly growing demand, Chou pointed out.

Quelle: Siu Han, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 3 January 2012]

P.S.: Weder Siu Han noch M.J. Chou sind im Hause Aixtron unbekannt. Gell.

und natürlich hört sich das alles nicht gut an. aber genau in diesen Momenten kauft man Aktien billig und nicht, wenn jeder denkt, nach 100% Zuwachs kommen im nächsten Jahr 120% on top.

wenn am ende wiedre alle bullish sind, muss man verkaufen. Börse kann so einfach sein.