Aixtron purpose of this thread

könnte mir vorstellen dass es bei Aixtron auch so gelaufen ist. Fall ist aus dem Internet.

Ich arbeite bei einem US Unternehmen und bekomme einen long term Bonus ausgerechnet. Das heisst, der Bonus wird zwar sofort zugesprochen aber erst nach drei Jahren tatsächlich "fällig" - im englischen "vesting". Jetzt gibt es diesen long term Bonus aber auch nicht in EUR sondern in Aktien des Unternehmens. Die Aktien kommen im Jahr, indem sie zugesprochen werden auf ein Konto bei einer US Bank und im Jahr in dem sie "vesting" werden werden sie zum Verkauf frei gegeben und zu diesem Zeitpunkt auch versteuert. Sprich die US Bank verkauft Aktien in Höhe der zu diesem Zeitpunkt fälligen Einkommenssteuer und bezahlt diesen Betrag an das deutsche Finanzamt.

Könnte von den den Zahlen her auch bei Felix so hinkommen.

Gruß baggo-mh

Dr. Felix Grawert

So related to new customer wins, in the past quarter, in the Q4, we have been able, in fact, to win again a handful of new customers, quite a decent number of customers. Among those, both smaller customers, but also very large customers, I think I can put that here. I don't want to give details in this place. So it's been a very successful quarter for us in wins...

I mentioned also we continue to have the customer design wins in silicon carbide. So that's adding to it, which is also we make -- why we make a pretty strong statement towards 2025. This is real backed by an Excel spreadsheet kind of...

Our tool is offering -- because we use the multi-wafer system, a very, very high productivity. And therefore, our assumption is that in case even though dual sourcing we will provide the majority of the tools in a dual wafer scenario...

So there's especially for silicon carbide, a concrete pipeline, with concrete customers and concrete numbers behind my statement...

Our market share in silicon carbide, we see somewhere between 50% and 60%, putting us in a clear number one position in silicon carbide....

we rather talk about some of the big semiconductor companies who really say, now yes, silicon carbide is such a big game. We want to be part of the party...
behind many customers, we see very large groups or many of our new customers, we see very large groups, very powerful groups who are now entering silicon carbide. So when we say smaller customers and in some of the cases, we mean a very large, a very powerful company, who is now entering silicon carbide...

https://www.infineon.com/cms/en/about-infineon/press/press-releases/2024/INFXX202403-074.html

Munich, Germany – 14 March 2024 – Infineon Technologies AG (FSE: IFX / OTCQX: IFNNY) today filed a lawsuit, through its subsidiary Infineon Technologies Austria AG, against Innoscience (Zhuhai) Technology Company, Ltd., and Innoscience America, Inc. and affiliates (hereinafter: Innoscience). Infineon is seeking permanent injunction for infringement of a United States patent relating to gallium nitride (GaN) technology owned by Infineon. The patent claims cover core aspects of GaN power semiconductors encompassing innovations that enable the reliability and performance of Infineon’s proprietary GaN devices. The lawsuit was filed in the district court of the Northern District of California.
...........

Gruß
baggo-mh

I wrote about Aixtron's inventories in posts #1559, and 1560.  The predicted inventories/order backlog ratio drop by year end did not happen.  Consequently, -110m euro FCF which has contributed to the recent poor stock performance IMO. Analysts were expecting a positive 65m euro FCF for 2023.  

The CFO was saying the inventories/backlog ratio should move toward the normal ratio of 0.5-06 in the Q123 CC, yet the ratio went up to 1.14!  What happened?  Backlog actually decreased from Q3 to Q4, and inventories increased from 380m to 395m.  I will share some thoughts on this later.

These charts show the backlog was dropping in 2023, yet inventories rising, which raised the ratio.  Backlog dropping because order intakes were slowing
.

Opto and LED started to decline a bout 2 years ago and show stabilization over the last 2 Q's.  Question is, would they go back up in 2024?  The charts show that it is possible in one year they could climb > 50% from 23 to approach their previous peak.  Power is expected to be flat in 2024.

Equipment sales is ~ 85% of the total revenue.  If Opto and LED contribute 100m each to  equipment sales, they would contribute 235m  rev.  If Power stays at 400m, it would contribute 470m to rev. Adding up, that would be the 705m projected 2024 sales, the upper end of the guidance that Felix talked about in the CC.

To reach 705m euro sales in 2024, Aixtron needs to have a trailing 4Q orders of 720m by Q224 based on my model.  Orders trail sales by 6-12 month.

Aixtron's total order intake in Q323 and Q423 was 322m.  So Aixtron needs additional 400m orders in the H1 of 2024 to reach the target.   The Equipment only would be 400mx0.85=340m.  Probably 75% of them are shippable in 2024 which to 255m, which is consist with Aixtron's 190-280m shippable equipment, midpoint 235m,  guidance to meet the 630m-720m sales guidance.

There is interesting and erroneous information about Aixtron's markets in Asia from Aixtron's 2023 and 2022 annual reports.

"Revenues from external customers are attributed to individual countries based on the country in which it is expected that the products will be used."

Aixtron generated 213m rev from China which increased from 2022; the 2022 China sales of 228m is an error, see next post.  Adding sales from the three Asian countries equals 308m. So sales from Korea + Japan were only about 6m in 2023. Those two have great potential for Aixtron in 2024, growing from very low bases, thinking Samsung, SK Siltrons, Rohm, etc. The 52m sales from Malaysia must be the Osram plants for microLED. No sales from Infineon's Malaysia plans, yet?

There were 160m sales in Europe outside Germany. Most were for Onsemi's Czech plant accounts.  Are some Infineon and STM in it?

Most of the US sales went to Wolfspeed.  Good US growth from 2022 to 2023. No sales to t Wolfspeed's JP manufacturing center being constructed in NC. Expect G10-SiC sales to Wolfspeed's Texas epi plant which is scheduled to ramp from mid 2024. Orders for the JP plant should come soon.

In the 2023 annual report, the 2022 China sales are listed 228m.  In the 2022 annual report, the 2022 China sales are listed 151m. Why the discrepancy?

I think the 2022 China sales should be 212m.  That China sales number listed in the 2022 report are reversed.  What a mess....

I have sent an email to Aixtron's IR to clarify.

Furthermore, where are the Korean sales in the 2023 report and the Malaysia sales in 2022 report?

Aixtron sold 126m to US market in 2023 up from 2022's 84m, majority of the tools were sold to Wolfspeed's Durham plant.  

The new JP plant with 10x increase in material capacity should come online in late 2024 and start ramping from 2025. Aixtron's G10-SiC would go there and before that the orders would be recognized, once the JP fab is ready and firm shipping dates are confirmed by Wolfspeed.  

Every SiC substrate needs an epi layer and every Wolfspeed's 200mm substrate shipping to  Mohawk fab will have the epi layer deposited at its JP plant.
------------------------------
From the Wolfspeed's 2/1/2024 CC:

...as it relates to our materials facility at the JP in Siler City, we will begin installing crystal growers in early February and would expect to begin qualifying furnaces in the September quarter of this year. All the learnings with 200 millimeter crystal growth at Building 10 will better position us to hit the ground running in Siler City and we anticipate boule production starting by the end of calendar 2024...

..and then when the JP starts making meaningful substrate deliveries to Mohawk Valley, probably in the back half of calendar ’25...

...when the JP comes online from a production perspective and think about that in that kind of March, June time frame of 2025..

...Where that will change is when we start ramping the deliveries of 200 millimeter substrates to Renesas out of the JP. That’s when the capacity expansion hits in pretty full steam.  Note: that would be 2027 timeframe.

...In terms of demand for the product and I would say, gross margin proxy for pricing, the demand for high-quality wafers remains very, very high. We constantly have customers saying they would like to get more for us this quarter and next quarter, et cetera.

www.eet-china.com/mp/a299873.html

According to this article, Aixtron had just 5% of the SiC epi equipment market share in China in 2023. Total market size was $181m in China in 2023. That means about $9m sales to Aixtron's G10-SiC in China in 2023.

The majority of the SiC epi equipment sales in 2023 was no doubt for 6".  Aixtron was able to penetrate China during 2023 through its new G10-SiC's dual 6"- 8" as well as its batch capability.

The 2024 market size for SiC epi equipment in China is projected to be $289m and likely the 8" equipment will become the major over 6".  What market share will Aixtron gain?

can we really speak of market penetration? Isnt' it rather an opening? I'd like to believe Aixtron can extend this 5 % significantly but don't think it can be a certainty.  

Apparently Aixtron was not able to move forward with its G5 WWC at EpiWorld.  All the indication is that EpiWorld (Hantian Tiancheng) went with LPE and either JSG or Naura for its 2022-23 expansion.  Several major SiC epi wafer expansions in China started in 2022 by companies like Tianyu, Poshing, etc., did not come to Aixtron either.

G10-SiC was introduced in late 2022 and later Aixtron announced a significant performance improvement around Q3 2023. We see Aixtron now has 5% or about 3 G10-SiC share in China during 2023.  

I was thinking penetration from that standpoint, not the number tools sold.  Hopefully the G10-SiC will create a foothold in China, gain acceptance, and start expanding.

Thank you very much for your valuable contributions and detailed analysis of the market and the Aixtron numbers.

It's always a pleasure to read your posts, comments and market analysis.

Thank you CWL1

Best regards
 baggo-mh

https://www.boerse-online.de/nachrichten/aktien/ueber-200-wachstum-in-5-jahren-die-aixtron-aktie-und-3-weitere-titel-sind-absolute-spitze-im-tecdax-20353525.html

Gruß
baggo-mh

Insider Purchase

immerhin 6K Stück

Gruß
baggo-mh

In the 2022 annual report Taiwan seems to be  counted twiece: China (150,761) + Taiwan (77,46) = 228,221
Still, the dicrepancy regarding Korea & Malaysia remains.

Good detective work with math.

If Aixtron uses the same pattern of 2022 reporting in 2023, the 2023 China sales of 213,254 would also include the Taiwan sales of 42,595. If so, the Japan + Korea sales would be about 314,356-213,254-52,025=49,079.  

Unfortunately, after one week Aixtron never gets back to my e-mail for a clarification.

Both annual reports are audited by KPMG. IMO it is unacceptable with such mistake or misinformation.

https://www.eqs-news.com/news/pvr/...europe-wide-distribution/2022911 

Please check the above from Feb.29.
According to my calculations that Australian fond sold 782.536 shares on Feb. 29.   
113.411.020 - 2,96% =   3.356.966   
113.411.020 - 3,65% =   4.139.502    
                                          782.536
That  caused an avalanche in the stock price. It went for 31,80 on 28.2. to under 26,00 (closing at 25,68) on 29.2

Woooooow!!

At least we have now identified one reason why the price dropped so significantly end February.

Gruß
baggo-mh

Hallo baggo, ich denke, dass wenn es nur an diese ca. 782.000 Aktien lag, wäre es nicht so stark nach unten gekommen. Es waren "nur" 12,5% von allen bei XETRA gehangelte Aktien. Es könnte auch am Ende mit"V" enden können, ist aber leider unten geblieben.