Aixtron purpose of this thread

Ich kann nur noch mit den Kopf schüttel, was hier gerade mit Aixtron los ist. Die Analis haben haben ständig auf "Buy" und ziele von 39,40,42 und 52 ausgespuckt. Kann es sein, das die Investoren so ein gebäsche kritisch sehen und dann auf den Verkaufsknopf drücken, weil sie den Analis nicht glauben ???

Gruss KHLI  

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/05/why-electric-vehicle-chip-stocks-aehr-test-systems/

Gruß
baggo-mh

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/10/05/why-electric-vehicle-chip-stocks-aehr-test-systems/

à plus

Jossy

da war baggo wieder mal etwas schneller ....

à bientôt

Jossy

Ich denke das war es erst mal mit unserer stolzen Aktie Aixtron. Der Bericht von fool.com ist schon sehr hart für die Investierten. Ich gehe davon aus, das die Aixtron weiter abstürzen wird. Ich bin echt gespannt, was die Analis jetzt für ausreden haben werden. Ich halte trotzdem viel von Aixtron Zukunftsversion. Frage ist nur, halten oder teil verkaufen??

Grus BigGeld 

https://www.ideas-daily.de/2023/oktober/kw-41/13-oktober/marktidee/?utm_source=finanzen-net&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=ideas-daily&utm_content=marktidee&utm_term=20231013

bon week-end

Jossy

https://www.ideas-daily.de/2023/oktober/kw-41/13-oktober/marktidee/?utm_source=finanzen-net&utm_medium=news&utm_campaign=ideas-daily&utm_content=marktidee&utm_term=20231013

bon week-end

Jossy

NEW YORK (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Das Analysehaus Jefferies hat die Einstufung für Aixtron auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 52 Euro belassen. Analystin Olivia Honychurch rechnet bei den kurzfristigen Auftragstrends mit etwas Volatilität. Dies schrieb sie in einer am Donnerstag vorliegenden Studie vor den Zahlen des Chip-Ausrüsters für das dritte Quartal./ajx/zb

Kann mir bitte einer erklären wann das Kursziel von 52 € erreicht werden soll??? 5 oder 10 Jahre ???

BigGeld  

I take it that she implied downside in Q3 order.  That wording seems to be causing the stock to tank.

Contrary to the analyst's prediction, I expect very strong Q3 and Q4 order patterns.  I believe the 2023 total orders would be close to the upper end of the guidance, i.e. 700m.

Why I say that?  The Q2 inventory/Order backlog ratio is 0.81.  Over the last three years the average ratio was 0.57 +- 0.1.  

The CFO commented in the Q1 2023 CC: "..looking at the ratio of our inventories as a percentage of order backlog being at 50% to 60% - this seems to be a reasonable range..." and "..As we are preparing for further growth, I would not expect inventories to significantly go down.."

Using inventory number of ~300m and a ratio of 0.57, the order backlog should be 300/0.57=526m by year end, that is another 114m increase of order backlog from the Q2 number of 412m.

So the H2 order intake has to be very healthy, and I don't see why the Q3 orders would be to the downside.

I believe Aixtron tightened its order recognition standard due to export license over the last few Q's which is why the  order backlog number was negatively impacted artificially.  30-50% of the 2023 revenue needs export license according to Felix.  I believe that it is getting back to normal, and the order number will jump significantly in H2. Just my opinion.

The ratio started to go above 0.6 from Q4/2022 and is likely due to the export license issue which surfaced in Q3/2022.  I hope the ratio will start coming down from Q3/2023 mostly due to increase of order backlog and some modest decrease of inventory.  Remember that in Q2/2023 the inventory was 333m. I hope to see it go down to 300m by year end.

In this chart I have included the advanced payments/Backlog. The ratio stays pretty constantly in 0.3-0.4 , in contrast to the inventories/backlog  which ramps noticeably in 2022Q4.  I can speculate that Aixtron decided to build inventories without getting the firm orders which would come with advanced payments. Is it because Aixtron anticipated very large orders coming in and wanted to build inventories beforehand? Export licenses cannot explain this because they were largely resolved and shipped in Q2/2023.  If Aixtron is building large inventories without the advanced payments, we could expect a very robust Q4 and into 2024.  Perhaps Aixtron could clarify in the 10/26 CC.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644189-aixtron-se-aixxf-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript?mailingid=33160438&messageid=2800&serial=33160438.56&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=33160438.56

Gruß
baggo-mh

Baggo, thanks a lot for your summary and the link to the transcript! As always very much appreciated!

I listened to the record (couldn't do this live) as well.

All in all a positive earnings call confirming the positive outlook over the next 1-2 years.
Again underscored the expected multiyear growth story on power electronics. However, I think there will be quarters and even years of consolidation which will affect the stock price of course.

Maybe it's worth thinking of taking some wins from the table when the price is driven a way too high.

Wolfspeed stock up 18% today after last night's earnings and beats on all fronts.

Surprised that today people seem to focus on the negativity of Onsemi while ignored the positivity from Wolfspeed which is the biggest SiC pure play and very bullish for the next few years. Investment plans unchanged by Wolfspeed and even Onsemi.

finance.yahoo.com/news/...eed-inc-nyse-wolf-q1-132928826.html

ich bin immernoch vom absturz von Aixtron geschockt, aber Sie geben mir leichte Hoffnung, das Aixtron wieder in tritt bekommt.  

PlayNitride and AUO to build 6-inch microLED CoC production line

www.ledinside.com/news/2023/11/2023_11_01_02

Wolfspeed's SiC Epi Manufacturing:

Recent Purchase of Epitaxy Facility in Farmers Branch, Texas

Extending our epitaxy capacity:

Establishes multi-site epi footprint​
Automated tools​
Initial ramp beginning in middle of 2024​
Spans 0.6 km2 (16.28 acres)
Site covers more than 26,000 m2 (280,000 ft2)​
Will support 150 mm and 200 mm wafers

www.wolfspeed.com/company/about/manufacturing-leadership/

This Wolfspeed's new SiC epi facility seems to have escaped attention, at least it is new news to me.  With the initial ramp in middle of 2024 epi tools must be placed pretty soon, presumably from Aixtron.

CWL1: if which I could give you 20 stars for this.
Not even one is possible.

if you now take the normal lead time of 9 - 12 months it seems impossible to get a middle of 2024 deadline accomplished with Aixtron tools....... unless you have:

- knowledge of the customers intend 
- inventory on hand check
- flexible production space check
- flexible workforce check

Thnaks so much for your very valuable contributions!!!

Regards
 baggo-mh

https://www.ledsmagazine.com/leds-ssl-design/article/14301056/ams-osram-sells-and-leases-back-its-vital-micro-led-plant-in-malaysia?o_eid=3332A7310467C1X&oly_enc_id=3332A7310467C1X&rdx.ident[pull]=omeda|3332A7310467C1X&utm_campaign=CPS231107265&utm_medium=email&utm_source=LED+News+%26+Insights

sell and lease back opens the door wide for better cash flow, higher share price and pot. quicker releasation. My money is still on Aixtron.

Gruß
baggo-mh

Weakness of Aixtron stock is also related to the concerns on EV's and SiC. To understand the true status, you should read the earnings CC's from OnSemi and Wolfspeed:

finance.yahoo.com/news/...ation-nasdaq-q3-2023-133144771.html

finance.yahoo.com/news/...eed-inc-nyse-wolf-q1-132928826.html

TORRANCE, Calif., Nov. 09, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (Nasdaq: NVTS), the industry leader in next-generation power semiconductors, today announced unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023.

“I am pleased to announce another record quarter for Navitas as our gallium nitride and silicon carbide technologies continue to displace legacy power silicon in traditional markets and enable and accelerate new energy markets,” said Gene Sheridan, CEO and co-founder. “It’s a very exciting time at Navitas as we launch four major new technology platforms across GaN and SiC. We expect Navitas’ revenues to far exceed market growth rates in 2024 and for years to come.”

Stock ups 10% today.

It is a customer of Aixtron: posts 1513, 1514, 1517.

navitassemi.com/...nces-third-quarter-2023-financial-results/

pretty frustrating when the stock of an Aixtron customer is going up while the supplier is dropping or not moving much