FY’25e outlook reduced due to tungsten supply chains; chg. est.

Management changed its FY’25 sales forecast to € 1.70-1.85bn (previously € 1.75-1.85bn; eNuW old € 1.79bn) and adj. EBITA to € 130-165m (previously € 150-175m; eNuW old € 164m). Materials Solutions is expected to be particularly soft partly due to the recently introduced tariffs on US exports.

However, even more important in our view are extended Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, effective since February 2025. BETEK, a specialist in tungsten carbide wear solutions, depends on tungsten-containing primary products from China and was responsible for around half of Materials Solutions sales and 16% of group sales in FY’24. China was responsible for 82% of the global tungsten production in 2024 and is thus a critical supplier for the whole industry.

Whether an export license will be granted, to what extent and how long it will take is currently unpredictable. If supply chains are not restored in time, missing tungsten carbide could result in a € 20-40m revenue loss and a € 8-15m EBITA reduction in H2’25e according to management. However, as a recovery of tungsten carbide supply is currently still in the cards, the top-line guidance was only adjusted on the lower end. In our view, a noticeable impact for FY’25 looks highly likely and for FY’26 plausible.    

Having said that, the case remains fully intact. Neither tariffs nor a short-term supply shortage is damaging BETEK’s competitive position based on technological leadership in the long-term. Nevertheless, we reduced our estimates, as we conservatively expect a supply shortage and price increase of tungsten carbide to affect FY25e and FY26e.  

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 34 per share, based on FCFY’25e.