FY24/25 ahead on sales but behind on the bottom-line / Chg.

FY24/25p sales increased 3.3% yoy to € 526m (eNuW: € 517m; eCons: € 511m), which was especially driven by TV Marketing sales of € 227m (+10.3% yoy; eNuW: € 215m) which benefitted from the FIFA CWC that was held in June/July (c. 75% of corresponding sales attributable to FY24/25). Besides this, sales were largely in line with match operations sales up 5.0% to € 55.2m, Advertising up 4.8% to € 154m, Merchandising down 16.4% to € 40.0m and Conference, catering & others down 10.7% to € 50m. The reason for the decline in Merchandising and CC&O lies mainly in the tough comparable base given the UEFA Euros in summer 2024 and BVB reaching the UCL final last year.

FY24/25p EBITDA declined by 22.9% yoy to € 116m (eNuW: € 121m; eCons: € 118m), implying a 22.0% margin (FY23/24: 29.5%). While the CWC should have made up for not reaching the UCL final again, the main factor for the decline lies in the transfer result, which was pushed the year before by the € 103m of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid. Overall, net transfer income declined 61.3% to € 37.8m as a result.

On the contrary, FY24/25p FCF improved significantly to € 21.5 (eNuW: € 20.9m), up from € -4.4m the year before. FCF generation was predominantly driven by positive WC swings, as oustanding receivables in connection with player transfers were collected as well as normalizing CapEx (investments in new catering facilities and training ground for women team last year).

What to expect for FY25/26: Let’s start with the sporting perspective, which is laying the foundation for the financial success of a football club. As in the previous seasons, we expect BVB to finish the Bundesliga inside the Top-4, thus securing qualification for the 2026/27 UCL season, reach the round of 16 in the UCL as well as the quarterfinals in the national cup. On this basis, sales are seen to decline by 3.3% to € 509m given that the majority of CWC prize money was recorded in FY24/25 as well as the fact, that BVB did reach the UCL quarterfinal last season. Despite that we expect an EBITDA improvement by 17% to € 136m (26.7% margin) on the back of recovering net transfer income, as the already sealed transfer of Jamie Gittens to Chelsea alone had a bottom-line effect of € 37-42m, according to the company. Two further player transfers for a total gross value of € 13m as well as the expectation of additional transfers lead us to our estimate of € 60m net transfer income in FY25/26e. The company is expected to publish a guidance for FY25/26 with the release of the annual report on 26th September.

On this basis as well as the continuous undemanding valuation of 3.1x EV/EBITDA FY25/26e, we confirm our BUY recommendation an maintain our € 5.20 PT based on DCF.