Mixed Q2 figures // ECJ ruling expected until year end, chg

Q2 Sales came in at € 11.8m (-14% yoy, -13% qoq), below our estimate of € 13.6m, driven by a Betting GGR of only € 10.2m (-16% yoy, -15% qoq vs eNuW: € 12.0m) while Gaming GGR grew as anticipated to € 1.6m (+12% yoy, +4% qoq vs eNuW: € 1.6m). Especially the absence of major sport events like the soccer EURO Championship last year burdened Q2 betting GGR. Note that Q2 is in general a weaker quarter, characterized by the offseason of most sports that are relevant for betting. Positively, margins improved significantly to 14.1% in the betting segment (vs 12.9% in Q2´24 vs eNuW: 13.2%) and to 11.4% in the gaming segment (vs 10.9% in H1´24 vs eNuW: 11.2%).

EBITDA of € 1.2m (+61% yoy; +1% qoq) was above our estimates (eNuW: € 0.8m). Lower than anticipated other operating expenses (€ 2.5m vs eNuW: € 3.4m), lower marketing spending (€ 3.3m vs eNuW: € 4.9m) and personal expenses in line with our estimates (€ 2.2m vs eNuW: € 2.2m) compensated for softer net gaming revenues. Undiluted operating performance measured with EBITDA before special items(i.e.non-operating costs in connection with customer claims and the liquidation of the Entertainment) came in at € 1.4m (vs € 1.0m in Q2´24, vs eNuW: € 0.9m). In H1, bet-at-home realized a reported EBITDA of € 2.3m and an EBITDA before special items of € 3.0m.

Overall, the Q2 figures mark another solid quarter, proving that bet-at-home is running a very healthy and profitable operating business. In light of this, any positive news regarding the two events overshadowing the operating performance (Customer claims and liquidation of the Entertainment) would serve as a catalyst for the stock. Especially the pending ECJ ruling could trigger such positive newsflow as it seems very likely that the ECJ is ruling in favour of the betting providers. Such an event would have the potential to eliminate the looming risk of new customer claims and related legal costs.

For the moment, we have not modeled that in expecting € 52.8m sales in FY25e, a reported EBITDA of € 2.5m and an EBITDA before special items of € 4.0m, in line with management guidance of € 46-54m sales and € 0-4m EBITDA before special items.

As the operating business is developing positively and sources of risks are likely to vanish soon, we reiterate BUY with an unchanged (but conservative) PT of € 5.50 based on FCFY´25e.