FY26e: LION set to pounce on growth opportunities

Following a challenging FY 24 with merely € 17m sales (-70% yoy), revenue for FY25 (preliminary release) grew strongly by 66% yoy to some € 28m, based on improved customer demand from bus manufacturers in North America and Karsan. With this, LION met its guidance for FY 25 of € 28m to € 35m in revenue and positive EBITDA. In fact, the EBITDA margin is not merely positive but should be >15% (eNuW) thanks to a particularly strong Q4.

Growth to continue. For FY26e, we estimate revenue to grow by some 30% to € 36.4m, driven by strong mobility product momentum and storage opportunities opening up with new partnerships formed in 2025. While EBITDA will also continue to grow, we model lower margins (15.6% vs. 18%) due to a changing product mix (stronger storage sales growth).

Mobility: To recap, LION currently operates a highly underutilized state-of-the-art factory, capable of an annual output of ~40k battery packs. With a growing customer base and the launch of the new NMC+ battery pack in full swing, utilization should gradually improve in during the next years. As the new battery pack technologically superior to the current version (NMC), we expect most existing customers to switch to NMC+. In Q4 2025, the first NMC+ deliveries were successfully made.

Storage: The strategic partnership with LeapEnergy (entered in April 2025) has given LION access to assembled BESS solutions. This allows LION to offer a one-stop-shop solution (product, integration and after-market service). The company should hence be able to successfully address to rapidly emerging energy storage market. In fact, in terms of revenue contribution, Storage should account for roughly half of group sales in FY26e (eNuW).

With a total project pipeline of >7.5 GWh (not yet signed), LION is looking at a revenue potential of roughly € 280m (eNuW) at low double-digit EBITDA margins (eNuW: 10-12%). Importantly, the company has already secured its first grid-scale project in Germany - a 20 MW/h installation scheduled for delivery in Q1 2026 estimated to have a revenue potential of € 750k (eNuW).

In December 2026, LION hired two new sales specialists for the German and the Italian market and entered a strategic cooperation with CircUnomics, a B2B marketplace for industrial battery and energy storage solutions, which should further support the current positive operational momentum.

LION’s outlook appears significantly brighter than a year ago, given these dynamic developments and strong support from a key shareholder. After achieving sustainable cash generation in FY25e, the company should gradually turn the balance sheet around. BUY with an unchanged € 3.20 PT.