Estimated Athlon sales (shipments): 1.1M
Estimated Athlon production: 1M (reduction of inventory by 100K)
ASP of Athlons: $270
Total Athlon revenue: $297M (+$237M vs. Q3)
Estimated K6 sales: 5M @ ASP=$56 = $280M (-$28M vs. Q3)
TOTAL CPG GROUP SALES: $577M (+$209M vs. Q3)
MEM GROUP SALES: $300M (+$94M vs. Q3)
COMM GROUP SALES: $84M (+14M or 20% vs. Q3)
OTHER SALES: no change (3M, though there might be something positive from sold Vantis division here
TOTAL REVENUE INCREASE: +$317M to $979M
EXPENSES
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Increased direct costs of Athlon production. About 1M more Athlons will have started production by the end of Q4 than Q3, since most of Q1'00 production starts in Q4'99.
1M x $50 = $50M additional costs
Cost of K6 production assume no change but it might have come down.
Cost of additional memory and COMM group sales, assuming 50% gross margin: half the increase or $54M
Increase in depreciation per conf call: $30M
Increase in MG&A (mostly advertising): $30M (CC said this was $20M, but AMD probably increased advertising even more)
TOTAL INCREASE IN COSTS: $164M
NET CHANGE IN PROFIT = 317M - 164M = 153M
ESTIMATED 4Q PROFIT: -105.5M + 153M = 47.5M
no taxes
PROFIT per share: 47.5M/149M = 0.32
Hopefully the detail given here will enable others to plug in their own assumptions and make a better estimate.
The PC-industry has finally reached a historical moment. The first 1 GHz PC is a reality and it's not based on an Intel-processor. Kryotech's new SuperG may not seem much more than a logical consequence after the introduction of the Cool Athlon 800 and then the Cool Athlon 900 systems, but it marks the crescendo of a long and sometimes difficult cooperation between 'processor-underdog' AMD and the visionaries from the hard working American South in West Columbia, South Carolina. While the 'cool guys from the hot South' throw in the world's most advanced CPU-cooling system, AMD provides the fastest PC-processor of today's market. The 'marriage' of those two top-players turned out to be a perfect symbiosis and there couldn't be a worthier winner of this millennium race for reaching the gigahertz-limit than those two companies.
SuperG is more than just a 'Cool Athlon 1000'
I was pleasantly surprised when I learned that the SuperG had more than just the typical bells and whistles we have come to expect from Kryotech. The cooling system has had an efficient upgrade in size and weight in return for even more cooling power than ever before. Weighing in at 70 lbs. (10 lbs. more than the 800/900MHz units), the new SuperG sports a larger compressor that consumes 20 more watts than previous units but is able to dissipate up to a massive 150 watts of heat compared to the older models 65 watts. With this much cooling, the SuperG unit provides enough headroom for future processors as well as applications such as video-chip cooling and multi-processors. Not only is this new compressor more powerful but also the most energy efficient compressor in the industry. SuperG doesn't come with all these new features and bragging rights for cheap, no sir. The new package will set you back $2450. Lets take a look at the differences between the new and old chillers.
