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Report on Lithium
Asia Lithium
The peak demand season combined with supply disruptions is about to bring the main upturn for the lithium mining sector. Key points of the meeting - April 13, 2026.
1. Analysis of the Lithium Mining Sector's Market Trend and Driving Logic
* Market Trend Positioning: The current lithium mining sector is in a demand-driven upswing, similar to the market situation from September to November 2025. In the supply and demand pricing logic, demand accounts for 70% to 80% of the weight, while supply disruptions are merely "icing on the cake". If supply continues to decline, the sector will enter an "invincible moment".
* Driving Forces for Sector Growth Remain Unchanged: The increase in demand is clear, the fundamentals are favorable, and the high international oil prices are beneficial to lithium batteries. Coupled with supply-side disruptions, the sector is currently in a state of "favorable timing, location, and conditions". Within the non-ferrous metals sector, the lithium mining sector has the most solid logic at present and is highly valuable for investment.
* Market Speculation Warning: At this stage, market speculation is strong. The market implicitly worries that lithium prices may not be sustainable in the long term and believes that a price breakthrough of 200,000 yuan will lead to a marginal weakening of demand. However, the strength of demand support and growth rate are underestimated. Under the strong demand drive, these concerns are secondary factors.
2. Supply-side Analysis
* Supply Downgrades:
- Annual supply downgrades: The expected new supply of lithium ore in 2026 has been revised from an optimistic estimate of 500,000 to 600,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 400,000 tons. The total supply downgrades since 2025 have exceeded 100,000 tons.
- Regional supply disruptions:
- Jiangxi: Since July 2025, there have been continuous disruptions at the mining end. In 2026, a major mine in Jiangxi has not released a secondary environmental impact assessment notice, and its resumption of production in the first half of the year is "far from certain". From the end of May, other mines in Jiangxi will also reduce or suspend production.
- Zimbabwe: Supply-side disruptions have materialized, with the supply for the year revised down by 30,000 to 40,000 tons. Shipments were halted at the end of February, and after domestic inventories (20 to 30 days) are depleted, there will be a shortage of ore from the end of April to early May.
- Australia: There is a risk of a diesel crisis. Local trade mines have diesel inventories that can only last until late April to the end of April, and there are no contingency plans for extreme situations. If the diesel runs out, operations will be directly halted. Currently, the reduction in Australia has not been factored into the balance sheet, and there is a high risk of further supply downgrades in the future.
* Long-term supply trend: 2026 is the year with the fastest supply growth, but demand has already offset the supply increase. Supply growth will slow down in 2027 and beyond, and will not constrain the rise in lithium prices.
3. Demand-side Analysis
* Demand growth exceeds expectations:
· Demand performance in Q1 2026: Lithium battery demand (converted to lithium) grew by 40% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 20%+ in 2025; the Q1 production schedule in the battery sector increased by approximately 40% year-on-year, with the positive and negative electrode sectors growing at a similar rate, and the production schedule for electrolyte in Q1 increased by over 50% year-on-year (more objectively reflecting downstream demand).
· Production schedule data verification: The battery production schedule in Q1 2026 was approximately 580-600 GWh. Even if subsequent quarters replicate the Q1 production, the schedule for electrolyte in Q1 increased by over 50% year-on-year (more objectively reflecting downstream demand).
· Production schedule data verification: The battery production schedule in Q1 2026 was approximately 580-600 GWh. Even if subsequent quarters replicate the Q1 production schedule, the balance sheet for the year will still be tight; demand will increase in Q2-Q4, and the hard shortage for the year is expected to be 50,000-100,000 tons.
* Low inventory across the supply chain: The inventory of lithium salts in the upstream sector is only about one and a half months, and the inventory of positive electrode materials and batteries is about one month; after inventory reduction in the first quarter, the finished product inventory in each sector is only half a month to one and a half months. The replenishment during the peak season or the hard shortage will bring significant price elasticity.
* Demand-driven logic: This round of the main upswing comes from the further strengthening of energy storage demand and the marginal improvement in demand for new energy vehicles (verified by data); the demand is transitioning from the off-season to the peak season, similar to the "supply and demand double hit" moment in September-October 2025.
* Demand increase in the second quarter: The production schedule for positive electrodes in May increased by nearly 15% month-on-month (far exceeding market expectations), and the capacity release of leading battery manufacturers in June will accelerate the production schedule for batteries. The shortage in the second quarter is expected to be comparable to that in the fourth quarter of 2025.
4. Lithium Price and Sector Valuation
* Lithium price assessment: The market has accepted 150,000 as the bottom pricing, and the valuation center has shifted from 120,000 to 150,000. There will be no problem with the lithium price rising in the next 2-3 months, and the price space has been opened up, with the main upswing approaching.
* Sector valuation and individual stock opportunities: The current sector pricing corresponds to a 15-20 times valuation based on a lithium price of 150,000 in 2026. Companies with resources in Zimbabwe that were undervalued due to the previous Zimbabwean disturbances and have low valuations have room for valuation recovery. After the recovery, the sector will continue to rise due to beta.
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