Top-News
TTTTTTTTOOOOOOOOOORRRRRR RRRRRR o.T.
Beiträge:
10
Zugriffe: 464 / Heute: 1
Zugriffe: 464 / Heute: 1
Economist predicts consumer retreat
'Cocooning' tendency might translate into flat sales for holidays
By Rachel Brand, News Staff Writer
Home, Sweet Home may be the theme song for the holidays.
In response to layoffs and recent terrorist attacks, Americans will renovate, entertain at home and stay off planes this season, predicted Bank One of Chicago economist Diane Swonk.
Swonk released her annual holiday retail predictions Tuesday.
She admitted much of her evidence is anecdotal. Economists are searching for indicators in what Swonk called "a unique recession" characterized by rapidly increasing layoffs but continued strong home and auto sales and government-led fiscal and monetary economic stimuli.
Still, about a quarter of Colorado residents plan to spend less this holiday than last, according to a recent poll by Boulder-based Talmey-Drake Research and Strategy Inc.
Only 5 percent plan to spend more and 69 percent will spend about the same, the survey showed.
"It's as much emotional as it is economic," Swonk explained. Americans are reacting to the fear of more terrorist attacks as well as financial concerns.
Swonk foresees national holiday sales increases of about 3 percent in November and December. After adjusting for inflation, sales will be flat.
Most hard hit will be general merchandise and apparel retailers. After inflation, Swonk's prediction of a 2.1 percent sales increase translates into a sales pullback.
One bright spot will be furniture and appliance retail sales -- a logical sequel to sizzling home sales and the instinct to stay put.
Through the end of September, there were 1.5 percent more home closings than the year before in Colorado.
"There is a growing sense across (the home furnishing) industries of cocooning or making your home more livable," said Chris Tejeda, communications director of the California-based Western Home Furnishings Association, a trade group of furniture sellers in the Western states.
"Savvy retailers, like Jake (Jabs) out in your area, will step up and take advantage of that," he added.
Jabs said September same-stores sales at American Furniture Warehouse were up 12 percent. He plans to run a post-Thanksgiving promotion called "Home for the Holidays."
E-tailers hoped a fear of entering malls would boost sales, but Swonk said she's seen no signs of it.
"We are by our nature social beasts. There's been a fairly rapid move back to the malls," she said.
Swonk foresees poor prospects for the "personal services" sector -- day spas, manicurists, and hair salons. Their sales boomed 8.9 percent from 1998 to 1999, and 7.2 percent last year. This year growth will hover at 2.4 percent.
"Some of those things are considered a little much now," Swonk said. "They also tend to be very highly correlated with tourism."
Even seasonal events are subdued.
Larry DiPascquale, owner of local catering firm Epicurean, said party counts are down and hosts are pruning guest lists.
"They are also concerned with how much joy is there when there are still people in New York grieving for their loved ones," he said. "I don't think they are calling them 'parties' but 'get-togethers.' "
October 24, 2001
'Cocooning' tendency might translate into flat sales for holidays
By Rachel Brand, News Staff Writer
Home, Sweet Home may be the theme song for the holidays.
In response to layoffs and recent terrorist attacks, Americans will renovate, entertain at home and stay off planes this season, predicted Bank One of Chicago economist Diane Swonk.
Swonk released her annual holiday retail predictions Tuesday.
She admitted much of her evidence is anecdotal. Economists are searching for indicators in what Swonk called "a unique recession" characterized by rapidly increasing layoffs but continued strong home and auto sales and government-led fiscal and monetary economic stimuli.
Still, about a quarter of Colorado residents plan to spend less this holiday than last, according to a recent poll by Boulder-based Talmey-Drake Research and Strategy Inc.
Only 5 percent plan to spend more and 69 percent will spend about the same, the survey showed.
"It's as much emotional as it is economic," Swonk explained. Americans are reacting to the fear of more terrorist attacks as well as financial concerns.
Swonk foresees national holiday sales increases of about 3 percent in November and December. After adjusting for inflation, sales will be flat.
Most hard hit will be general merchandise and apparel retailers. After inflation, Swonk's prediction of a 2.1 percent sales increase translates into a sales pullback.
One bright spot will be furniture and appliance retail sales -- a logical sequel to sizzling home sales and the instinct to stay put.
Through the end of September, there were 1.5 percent more home closings than the year before in Colorado.
"There is a growing sense across (the home furnishing) industries of cocooning or making your home more livable," said Chris Tejeda, communications director of the California-based Western Home Furnishings Association, a trade group of furniture sellers in the Western states.
"Savvy retailers, like Jake (Jabs) out in your area, will step up and take advantage of that," he added.
Jabs said September same-stores sales at American Furniture Warehouse were up 12 percent. He plans to run a post-Thanksgiving promotion called "Home for the Holidays."
E-tailers hoped a fear of entering malls would boost sales, but Swonk said she's seen no signs of it.
"We are by our nature social beasts. There's been a fairly rapid move back to the malls," she said.
Swonk foresees poor prospects for the "personal services" sector -- day spas, manicurists, and hair salons. Their sales boomed 8.9 percent from 1998 to 1999, and 7.2 percent last year. This year growth will hover at 2.4 percent.
"Some of those things are considered a little much now," Swonk said. "They also tend to be very highly correlated with tourism."
Even seasonal events are subdued.
Larry DiPascquale, owner of local catering firm Epicurean, said party counts are down and hosts are pruning guest lists.
"They are also concerned with how much joy is there when there are still people in New York grieving for their loved ones," he said. "I don't think they are calling them 'parties' but 'get-togethers.' "
October 24, 2001
Es gibt keine neuen Beiträge.
