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Economist predicts consumer retreat
'Cocooning' tendency might translate into flat sales for holidays
By Rachel Brand, News Staff Writer
Home, Sweet Home may be the theme song for the holidays.
In response to layoffs and recent terrorist attacks, Americans will renovate, entertain at home and stay off planes this season, predicted Bank One of Chicago economist Diane Swonk.
Swonk released her annual holiday retail predictions Tuesday.
She admitted much of her evidence is anecdotal. Economists are searching for indicators in what Swonk called "a unique recession" characterized by rapidly increasing layoffs but continued strong home and auto sales and government-led fiscal and monetary economic stimuli.
Still, about a quarter of Colorado residents plan to spend less this holiday than last, according to a recent poll by Boulder-based Talmey-Drake Research and Strategy Inc.
Only 5 percent plan to spend more and 69 percent will spend about the same, the survey showed.
"It's as much emotional as it is economic," Swonk explained. Americans are reacting to the fear of more terrorist attacks as well as financial concerns.
Swonk foresees national holiday sales increases of about 3 percent in November and December. After adjusting for inflation, sales will be flat.
Most hard hit will be general merchandise and apparel retailers. After inflation, Swonk's prediction of a 2.1 percent sales increase translates into a sales pullback.
One bright spot will be furniture and appliance retail sales -- a logical sequel to sizzling home sales and the instinct to stay put.
Through the end of September, there were 1.5 percent more home closings than the year before in Colorado.
'Cocooning' tendency might translate into flat sales for holidays
By Rachel Brand, News Staff Writer
Home, Sweet Home may be the theme song for the holidays.
In response to layoffs and recent terrorist attacks, Americans will renovate, entertain at home and stay off planes this season, predicted Bank One of Chicago economist Diane Swonk.
Swonk released her annual holiday retail predictions Tuesday.
She admitted much of her evidence is anecdotal. Economists are searching for indicators in what Swonk called "a unique recession" characterized by rapidly increasing layoffs but continued strong home and auto sales and government-led fiscal and monetary economic stimuli.
Still, about a quarter of Colorado residents plan to spend less this holiday than last, according to a recent poll by Boulder-based Talmey-Drake Research and Strategy Inc.
Only 5 percent plan to spend more and 69 percent will spend about the same, the survey showed.
"It's as much emotional as it is economic," Swonk explained. Americans are reacting to the fear of more terrorist attacks as well as financial concerns.
Swonk foresees national holiday sales increases of about 3 percent in November and December. After adjusting for inflation, sales will be flat.
Most hard hit will be general merchandise and apparel retailers. After inflation, Swonk's prediction of a 2.1 percent sales increase translates into a sales pullback.
One bright spot will be furniture and appliance retail sales -- a logical sequel to sizzling home sales and the instinct to stay put.
Through the end of September, there were 1.5 percent more home closings than the year before in Colorado.
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