Ein Wort zu folgendem kompletten Thread von BradMunch: Wahsinn.
Zitat:
„1) $TSLA is *screwed* in China, it appears. Just received local intel from Shanghai GF3 & things are on thin ice. Cash is extremely tight; key suppliers aren't willing to work w/ $TSLA; & vultures among local EV makers are eyeing the take-over of GF3, as failure is a possibility.
2) JL Warren (my most trusted source on $TSLA in China) just put out a report on their meeting w/ local officials in Lingang, where GF3 is located.
$TSLA is already seeing high turnover of recent new hires at GF3, including key govt relations officials. This is serious shit.
3) Cash is tight, w/ billions of dollars in payables outstanding. Local govt is apparently paying for GF3 employees' "lunch boxes" everyday.
GF3 factory building is complete, but the inside is far from finished, w/ utilities yet to be installed. GF3 office rent is also "late".
4) Key suppliers passing on opportunity to work w/ $TSLA, as $TSLA is asking for aggressive 30%~40% discounts on equipment. This is causing a delay in the GF3 ramp-up & JLW reports that local officials don't see a full production possible until 2H 2020 (sounds optimistic to me).
5) Local financiers are now worried, it appears, as they were mandated to extend loans to $TSLA by the govt, but never made any assumptions based on risk assessments. Wonder if they re-finance in April under the same terms when the initial $520m loan repayment is due.
6) If the GF3 project can't pay its bills, it appears like local lenders are seeing the possibility of state-owned EV makers, like SAIC (which has nearby operations), to take over the factory & its automated lines. Like me, JLW is bearish on the Model 3's success.
7) The imported Model 3 is only selling ~2K/month in China & falling. The local version is priced roughly the same as the imported version at $51K. $TSLA will need to drop the local version's price by at least 30%, if not more, in order to keep GF3 running.
8) When an auto plant ramps up, the start-up costs are huge. Labor costs & benefits in China are ~1/2 of that in Fremont, but most key components will have to be shipped from Fremont. This will surely cause the GF3 Model 3 to lose more money than the US-made version.
9) My hunch is that if/when GF3 gets up & running, it will become an extra pillar of losses for $TSLA. The current situation at GF3 is typical $TSLA ineptitude when it comes to car manufacturing. Expect deep price cuts on the local M3 & a further step towards insolvency.“
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