siehst, so unterschiedlich sind die Meinungen.
Asbeck geht in Dtl. nur von 5 GW aus andere Studien sehen es ähnlich und Intersolar Feedbacks sind auch weniger optimistisch
"Solar: Intersolar, feedback from day 1
Demand picked up in Q2, but the German market needs a huge boost in H2 to meet consensus expectations
After a poor Q1, demand has picked up in the last few weeks: Solon (modules) anticipates a low double-digit q/q shipment increase in Q2, while revenues in May for Phoenix Solar (solar farm installations) equalled the revenues generated in the entire January-April period. However, consensus expectations for the German market in 2011 (5 GWe) assume a very sharp recovery in H2 as only 1 GWe should be installed in H1. Wacker is by far the most bullish and expects installations in Germany to be above the 2010 level (7 GW). Consensus has admittedly underestimated demand for the last several years, while IRRs for solar farms continue to yield a decent 6%.
Inventory levels are high, but mixed picture for factory utilisation rate
Inventories are rather high in the value chain (10 GWe according to iSuppli, our analysis shows 95 days in Q1 11 vs 55 on average since 2007). Phoenix Solar started 2011 with a full warehouse and is just buying modules from now on. While some players are running at a very low utilisation rate (40-50% for Solon), SolarWorld (modules) and LDK (wafers) continue to experience strong demand for their products. Pricing erosion has accelerated all along the value chain in recent weeks (cells and wafers mostly), and the safest spot remains polysilicon, with spot prices at USD60/kg vs cash costs at around USD30/kg."
oder
"We attended Intersolar and hosted a series of small group sessions with companies along the value chain. Take-aways from day 1: Visibility on higher demand/volumes in H2 11 continues to be low: Overall comments were downbeat, except for Centrotherm which sees high demand from Asian manufacturers for capacity expansion/ upgrades. Most companies hope for an ASP driven recovery in Germany/ Italy and do not see other major markets emerging soon (US, China still away from major pickup). ASPs still falling: Germany saw a 'normal' May, ie. volumes higher than Q1 but not able not able to compensate for Q1. June seems to show a continuation. Inventory levels fall albeit at a lower pace than anticipated. Wholesale module ASPs declined from E1.30/W ('low volumes') at the end of Q1 towards E1.15 now. Chinese producers appear to even offer
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