Für den Fall das Silverado mit Gold erfolgreich sein sollte (was ich insgeheim hoffe um die Projekte für Greenfull leichter anschieben zu können) hier ein Analystenkommentar:
Gold could break the $1,500/oz barrier within five years: ML
New York (Platts)--11Apr2007
The current bull market for gold could last another five years, if
certain conditions are in place, and the metal's price could soar to an
incredible $1,500/oz, according to David Rosenberg, an economist with Merrill
Lynch. He suggested that investors buy gold to beat the current period of
stagflation.
"Although hardly out of control, the reality is that inflation concerns
are starting to show up again in the fixed-income market," said Rosenberg in
the current issue of Merril's Portfolio Manager's Review. "We have seen these
intermittent stagflation fears surface no fewer than three times in the past
three years, and we found that in these episodes where the yield curve is
steepening at the same time that TIPS (treasury inflation-protected
securities) break-evens are widening, the best-performing S&P sectors were
energy, materials and industrials."
"An asset that fares well in such periods is gold, which has already
rallied 6% since the latest run-up in oil, the widening in TIPS spreads and
steepening curve took hold simultaneously," said Rosenberg. "We reiterate that
gold is in a secular, not merely cyclical, bull market. Indeed, gold formed a
very similar bottom formation in 1999 as the S&P 500 did back in 1982."
Rosenberg continued: "If this [scenario] plays out like other secular
bull markets have in the past -- emerging markets, bonds, stocks, oil, real
estate -- then this is a run that can be expected to last at least another
five years and ultimately see bullion break the $1,500/oz barrier." He has
described gold as a "very successful hedge against deflation and inflation
fears."
Rosenberg noted that although that view may raise eyebrows, "gold has
already more than doubled this cycle to levels that few were calling for five,
six or even seven years ago." He added that if gold had merely kept pace with
inflation during the past 25 years, the nominal price would have already
cleared that $1,500/oz threshold.
"As we have already seen so far this cycle, gold has proven to be a very
successful hedge against deflation ... and inflation fears (which is one
reason why it is in a secular bull market)," said Rosenberg. "If gold's
secular bull market plays out like other secular bull markets, expect this run
to last for at least another five years (trough-to-peak % change) We reiterate
that gold is in a secular, not merely cyclical, bull market. If gold had
merely kept pace with inflation during the past 25 years, the nominal price
would have already cleared that $1,500/oz threshold."
According to his analysis, other forms of investment have outperformed
gold from their recent lows to their peaks. For example, the S&P 500 gained
1,366% from July 1982 to August 2000; NASDAQ gained 1,324% from October 1990
to February 2000; and the Home Building Index rose 954% from February 2000 to
July 2005.
Rosenberg cited various economic issues for his support for gold.
Touching on the rebirth of inflation expectations, Rosenberg said: "Even as we
focus intensely on the implications of the escalating housing recession -- new
home sales at seven-year lows, inventories at 16-year highs, Case-Shiller home
prices down in each of the past six months and in 80% of the country (looking
at 20 metro areas), and home building stocks sliding over 25% since the peak
in February and sub prime mortgage problems, another development has
surfaced that has near-term market implications at least. That development is
the resurrection of inflation expectations.
He noted that recent news that Congress would impose fresh tariffs on
China is "likely to add fuel to this flame." Adding to this is the
implications for crude oil prices if the tension between Iran and the West
should prevail.
"Also, investors should keep in mind that the 0.3% rise in the core PCE
deflator took the year-over-year rate up to 2.4%, challenging a 12-year high,"
Rosenberg said. "We are not rampant inflationist, and much of the recent
above-expected core figure reflected another outsized increase in medical
prices. But it is what it is, and unfortunately core inflation is moving away
from our forecast and, more importantly, away from the Fed's comfort zone."
Rising core inflation means that the hurdle for the Fed to ease policy in
the face of a weaker economic and/or financial backdrop is higher than what we
had previously thought, he pointed out.
"Since the middle of January, we have seen oil go from around $50/bbl to
$65/bbl (as an aside, as gasoline breaks $2.60 a gallon, it represents about a
$45 billion drain on consumer cash flow, or the equivalent of a 0.5% pay cut
for the average American worker)," Rosenberg added. "This has helped lift the
CRB index by over 11%."
§--Ovid Abrams; ovid_abrams@platts.com
Quelle: www.platts.com/Metals/News/...Metals/News&?undefined&undefined
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