Im Nachgang zu dem heute hier geposteten Handelsblatt - Artikel von Permanent der Vollständigkeit halber noch ein kleiner Chart, welcher in der Papier-Artikel-Version des HB mit eingefügt ist.

Gruß + Stöffen

IOs accounted for 26 percent of originations  in the first half of 2006.  However, the composition of IO originations changed, with fixed rate IOs accounting for 24 percent of all IOs in the first half of 2006 compared to 13 percent in the second half of 2005. Payment option mortgages ("Option ARMs") accounted for 15 percent of the dollar volume of originations in the first half of 2006, up from 8 percent in the second half of 2005.  Macht 26% IO + 15% Option ARMS = 41% Non-Traditional Loans.

First-time homebuyer purchases represented almost one in three home purchases in the first half of 2006.  Their average loan amount was $189,883, significantly less than the average loan amount of $236,517 for non first-time homebuyers.

Of the first half originations, 19 percent were for single-family attached homes, 75 percent for single-family detached homes, 1 percent for manufactured and mobile homes and 4 percent for 2-4 unit structures.  About half of single-family attached home originations were for condos or cooperatives, the remainder being for other single-family attached properties such as townhouses, duplexes and rowhouses.

From the second half of 2005 to the first half of 2006, reverse mortgage dollar volume decreased 23 percent, with FHA's Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs) decreasing by 16 percent and other reverse mortgages decreasing 76 percent. However, the total number of reverse mortgage loans increased 31 percent.  This result was driven by a 7 percent decline in large dollar balance reverse mortgages, but a 32 percent increase in smaller balance HECM loans.

Data on second mortgage originations:

Compared with the second half of 2005, the first half of 2006 saw origination volume of all second mortgages increase 1 percent.

As with first mortgages, there was a trend towards fixed-rate loans.  Data from repeater companies indicates that closed-end seconds increased 59 percent while variable-rate HELOCs increased only 3 percent.  

The percentage of second mortgage originations that were closed-end increased progressively over the half to 34 percent of dollars and 42 percent of loans in the first half of 2006 from 22 percent of dollars and 32 percent of loans in the second half of 2005.  

The survey included 115 participants, including almost all of the top 30 originators.  During the first half of 2006, survey participants originated $640 billion in first mortgages and $175 billion in second mortgages.  

"Considerable uncertainty exists about how much a slowdown in mortgage equity withdrawal [MEW] might restrain consumption growth," it said.

"Key issues include how much home-price appreciation might slow, how much the deceleration would affect MEW and how much a slowdown in MEW would restrain consumer spending."

U.S. mortgage equity withdrawals jumped to a record 5 percent of income in 2005, but slowed sharply in the second quarter when a rise in home prices decelerated. That indicated that mortgage equity withdrawals, a source for consumer spending, were highly sensitive to housing inflation.

Major builders, including Pulte Home (up $0.25 to $31.03, Charts), Centex (Charts), D.R. Horton (up $0.52 to $25.32, Charts), Lennar (down $0.04 to $49.83, Charts) and Toll Brothers (Charts) have all seen sales and earnings fall sharply this year in the face of the housing slowdown while Wal-Mart (up $0.04 to $46.75, Charts) announced that November sales would be disappointing this year.

“So far this year, more than 35,000 homes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area have been posted for foreclosure. More than 15,000 homes have been taken by lenders when the owners couldn't keep up with the payments,” says real estate columnist Steve Brown with The Dallas Morning News. “That means more than a quarter of the pre-owned houses up for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area are foreclosed properties.”

Look at real estate trends in Dallas during the past year and what do you see? Sales are down, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Dollar volume has fallen. Median sale prices are lower. The number of available listings is up. Days on the market have increased.

The catch is that foreclosures don't just impact owners and lenders. In sufficient numbers, foreclosures impact you whether or not your home is for sale and regardless of how it is financed. As the example in Dallas shows, foreclosures can:

·          Reduce the market value of your home, which means you may be forced to sell for less.

·          Reduce your home equity if you are not selling which means you will be less able to refinance mortgages if rates decline or if you want to switch from an adjustable-rate product to fixed-rate financing.

·          Lower home values, which means fewer dollars will be available from home equity loans to start a business or underwrite a college education.

·          Create a buyer's market where it may take longer to sell your home and where additional discounts and incentives may be required to close a sale.

Foreclosures in sufficient numbers have a community impact. They reduce the value of local homes, whether those houses are free and clear of all mortgages or financed to the hilt with the latest mortgage project.

“It may not be fair, but it doesn't matter whether a home is being foreclosed because of illegal flipping, financial hardships or loans that are suddenly more expensive once 'start' rates end,” according to RealtyTrac's Saccacio. “As soon as the number of foreclosures rises above a level that's usual and normal for a community, home values across an entire area will fall.”

Consider a November 2006 study by the Baltimore-based Goldseker Foundation. It shows that "mortgage foreclosures have lowered housing values across Baltimore — in the aggregate — by just under $1.8 billion in the last two years (2004 and 2005). As of 2006, the estimated aggregate value of residential real estate for tax purposes in the city of Baltimore is approximately $17.8 billion, suggesting that between 5 percent and 10 percent of the value of residential real estate is lost as a result of these foreclosures."

Since property taxes fuel local and state governments, the reduction in home values not only impacts individual property owners, it also reduces local revenues. According to the Goldseker report, Baltimore will lose $42 million in tax revenues during 2006 because of property value declines.

"What these figures show is that foreclosures are not just a problem for owners in financial trouble,” says RealtyTrac's Saccacio. “We all have a stake in the effort to reduce foreclosure numbers for the very simple reason that a surplus of foreclosures can reduce the value of all homes in a given community — including your home and my home.”

Der Artikel im letzten Posting zeigt sehr gut, dass der Housing-Markt sich in einer sich selbst verstärkenden dynamischen Abwärtsspirale befindet.

Unter solchen Bedingungen eine Bodenbildung zu erwarten - wie der "Konsens" es tut - ist schlicht illusionär.

Decline in Rates Boosts Mortgage Applications
12/6/2006 8:32 AM EST

The MBA index is up 8.9%, and refinancing activity jumped 13.7%, marking the largest weekly gain in 14 months.

The rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is down to 5.98% from 6.13% last week. That's the first time it's slipped below 6% since October 2005. The rate on the 15-year fixed is down to 5.66% from 5.86% last week, now at its lowest level of 2006.  

Americans Will Shop Till their Dollars Drop

By Peter Schiff December 1, 2006 www.europac.net

While Americans were busy digesting their Thanksgiving feasts, the rest of the world was barfing up dollars.  As a result of our massive trade deficits, foreigners certainly have their bellies full of them.  This week’s action in the Forex markets indicates that they may have finally eaten their fill.  Unfortunately, the bad taste will likely linger as the dollar’s rout has only just begun. 

As American consumers hit the stores this black Friday, few will have noticed that the most significant mark-down occurred in the value of their currency.  If anything can be said to have been blackened this Friday it’s the U.S. dollar.  While the media remains focused on the dollars Americans are irresponsibly spending, the real story lies in the loss in value of those dollars that foreigners are foolishly saving.  The losses are particularly more pronounced among foreign central banks, most notably China, whose foreign exchange reserves, the vast majority being U.S dollars, recently eclipsed 1 trillion.  When foreigners finally decide that they have had enough, their reluctance to accumulate additional dollars will mean that America’s perpetual shopping spree will finally come to a screeching halt.

This week the U.S. dollar was carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey.  Against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen, the dollar lost 3%, 2.2%, 2% and 1.8% of its value respectively.  To put those declines into perspective, in terms of the euro the Dow Jones’s 60 point plus decline this week translates into the equivalent of a 320 point decline when measured in euros.  In fact, year to date the Dow is only up by about 3.5% when priced in euro’s, compared to its 14.5 % advance when measured in depreciating U.S. dollars.  From its high in 2000, the euro price of the Dow is down by over 27%.  In terms of gold, the world’s only legitimate money, the picture is even worse.  Priced in gold the Dow is off better than 50% from its 2000 peak, and actually down over 7% thus far this year.  So much for Wall Street’s phony rally! 

At the risk of over using the term, one conundrum is the relative strength in the bond market given the dollar’s recent weakness.  From our creditors’ perspectives, the only thing worse than holding dollars is holding future claims to dollars, which is what bonds in fact represent.  When foreigners begin factoring ten percent plus annual dollar declines into U.S. bond yields, bond prices will head south fast. 

It also never ceases to amaze me how U.S. investors can be so fixated on stock prices yet remain oblivious to what those prices actually denote.  Stock prices of course represent quantities of dollars.  Therefore, true stock market values actually depend on the purchasing power of the dollar.  Concentrating on the former while ignoring the latter is one of the biggest mistakes most investors make.

Unfortunately the technical outlook for the dollar, and by extension that of the entire U.S. economy and the financial markets it supports, is rapidly deteriorating.  The dollar Index, now trading near 83.5, has broken though some key support levels and the next test will likely be its all time record lows of just under 80.  If that test fails, as it most likely will, look out below.  Once the dollar moves into uncharted territory, the selling could intensify, with the dollar index trading below 70 in short order.  My ultimate target for that index is 40, which would literally cut the dollar’s value in half.  I think the entire move could occur in just two years.  Again, putting that decline into perspective, it is the equivalent of over a 6,600 point decline in the Dow.  Of course this assumes the Fed finally gets religion and Congress and the President heed its sermon.  If not, and hyperinflation ensues, the dollar index could fall far lower, perhaps even breaking into the single digits before bottoming out.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking that this is somehow a problem for foreigners.  It is Americans who will feel the losses the greatest, as it will result in substantial increases in both consumer prices and interest rates, and in declining assets prices, particularly for residential real estate.  In the other words, what we own will be worth a lot less and what we need to buy will cost a lot more.

Don’t wait for reality to set in.  Protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it’s too late.  Download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

Peter D. Schiff, President
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
10 Corbin Drive, Suite B
Darien, Ct. 06820
phone 203-662-9700
toll free 888-377-3722
email schiff@europac.net
web www.europac.net

Dass der Dollar-Index in den einstelligen Bereich fallen soll (= Achtelung des Außenwerts bezogen auf jetzt) ist Permabären-Gesülze vom Feinsten. Na, kein Wunder. Seine Firma ist auf den Verkauf von "foreign" (= nicht aus USA kommenden) Aktien und Anleihen spezialisiert.

Das ist so, als würde jemand Feuerwehr-Equipment verkaufen und ständig "Es brennt!" schreiend durch die Straßen laufen.

Sie haben nur ein Interesse: möglichst viele Hypothekenverträge zu verkaufen. Ob die Hauskäufer/Schuldner später damit Schiffbruch erleiden, kümmert sie herzlich wenig. Um den "Umsatz" mit Hypothekenverträgen anzukurbeln, verheimlichen sie sogar wichtige Details. Die fünf verbreitetsten "schmutzigen Tricks" der Hypothekenbroker verrät ein Brancheninsider im folgenden Blog:

briandiez.blogspot.com/

Consumer advocates say the loosened standards are putting more people at risk as loans originally designed for sophisticated individuals are being marketed to far-less-savvy borrowers.

"Consumers haven't caught up with the dynamics of the market," said Allen Fishbein, director of housing and credit policy at the Consumer Federation of America. "They are still thinking of how it use to be, but it isn't like that anymore."

Product Comparison

Alternative mortgage loans were first developed for a handful of people with promising long-term earnings potential: young lawyers destined to make partner, doctors finishing medical school or stock brokers who get large commission checks several times a year.

But as housing prices have surged, outstripping wages in the most expensive markets, alternative financing has become a popular path to homeownership.

These new loans come in many forms. "Nontraditional" mortgages allow borrowers to pay only the interest on the loan or even only a portion of the interest each month, without being required to pay down the principal. Nationwide, more than a third of borrowers who got loans in the first nine months of 2006 got nontraditional loans, up from about 2 percent in 2000, according to First American LoanPerformance, a real estate information firm.

"Piggyback" loans allow people to borrow for a down payment, sparing buyers the trouble of saving for years and letting them avoid paying mortgage insurance, which is usually required on loans with down payments of less than 20 percent. In 2005, about 22 percent of people buying homes took out piggyback mortgages, according to the Federal Reserve.

"Subprime" loans are available to people who have bad credit, though they charge interest rates 2 to 3 percent higher than the rates charged to borrowers with good credit. About a fifth of the loans originated in 2006 now fall into that category, up from about 5 percent in 1999, according to the Federal Reserve.

Jim Sugarman, supervisory attorney at AARP's financial-abuse unit, says these alternative loans offer new opportunities but also carry added risks. About 59 percent of subprime loans have adjustable rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and any sudden spike in interest rates would push payments higher.

In a rising real estate market like that of the past few years, borrowers who fall behind on their mortgages could sell before going into default. For that reason, lenders haven't been too worried about repayment. But now, with home prices flat or falling, many homeowners may not be able to sell their homes for enough to cover their mortgage balances.

Alternative loan products are giving many people access to homeownership, counters Steve Calem, vice president with American Bank in Bethesda. "Interest-only loans help people get into their first house," he said. "Interest-only loans minimize their payments, when people know their income is going to be going up. It gives them flexibility."

Most consumers have only themselves to blame because they are not doing enough research on the mortgage market as it has grown increasingly complex, said Christopher Cruise, who trains mortgage brokers at major lending companies.

"The American consumer's ignorance of mortgage procedures in the past hurt them a little," he said. "What's different now is that it'll hurt them a lot. The stakes are a lot higher."

Persistent Phone Calls

Howard said he was persuaded to refinance his house by a "very friendly" loan officer who called once a week for a year, telling him the time was right to stabilize his finances.

After deciding to take out the loan, he said he told the lender he would need help reading the paperwork at the closing. He said he still doesn't understand exactly what kind of mortgage he signed.

Howard's mortgage contains several of these new features, said Sugarman, who has reviewed the documents. It is an interest-only loan, which is one of the nontraditional mortgages designed to help wealthy people manage their cash flow, and for people whose incomes are likely to rise -- not for those whose incomes, such as Howard's, are likely to fall as they retire on Social Security. The rate is fixed, but only for 10 years. Sugarman said Howard appears to have qualified for it with a "NINA" loan, a "no-income, no assets" loan that required minimal income documentation.

"It's a very exotic mortgage, and he had no idea he was getting that," Sugarman said. "He thought he was doing something smart."

Sugarman said that in the past, lenders didn't make these kinds of loans because they put financial institutions at risk. Bad real estate loans marked the beginning of the Great Depression, and subsequent banking reforms required lenders to consider the soundness of their lending practices. That made loans safer for borrowers and lenders alike.

What has changed is the booming market for real estate securities. Major financial institutions now put thousands of loans together and sell them in slices to investors. That means lenders seldom get caught holding the loans. If an individual loan goes bad, the effect is dissipated among many investors.

The new mortgage products have fueled record profits for the lending industry in recent years. Brokers can generate tens of thousands of dollars in additional fees, beyond what they earn on traditional mortgages, by placing borrowers in these loans, Cruise said.

The question is whether some consumers can adequately protect themselves in the complex financial transactions of the new mortgage marketplace.

A Tough Price to Pay

Willie Webb Jr. of Lauderdale Lakes, Fla., was pleased for his daughter at first when she told him she had refinanced the home she had inherited from her grandparents, reducing her interest rate and allowing her to pay off some bills. He assumed she had gotten a fixed-rate mortgage, the kind of loan with which he is most familiar. A few months later, she called him in a panic. It turned out that she had an adjustable-rate mortgage in which the payments starting rising almost immediately, and when Webb investigated further, he learned that she can't get out of the loan without paying a $6,000 prepayment penalty.

Webb is angry that his daughter, Keisha Smith, a single mother with four children, agreed to take a loan she did not understand. He has made the payments for her some months because otherwise she would risk losing her home.

Many newer mortgage products make it difficult and costly for borrowers like Smith to extricate themselves. The mortgage bankers group recently reported that more than 50 percent of some kinds of adjustable-rate loans contain prepayment penalties, which require borrowers to shell out big bucks to break free. A prepayment penalty of about 3 percent of the mortgage loan -- about $9,000 on a $300,000 mortgage -- is not unusual, according to the Federal Reserve.

A study by the Center for Responsible Lending, a consumer-advocacy group, said last year that about two-thirds of Virginians with high-interest, subprime loans also have prepayment penalties. In Maryland, where prepayment penalties are restricted by law, about a quarter of subprime borrowers have them. (Comparable figures were not available for the District.)

The biggest risk lurking behind all these loans is the threat of foreclosure. Last month, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquencies were on the rise, particularly for costly subprime loans. Likewise, the Center for Responsible Lending said in a recent report that more than 19 percent of subprime loans made in 2005 and 2006 are at risk of foreclosure.

Federal and state banking regulators have instructed lenders to make sure before issuing a loan that borrowers can keep up if payments are adjusted upward. Consumer advocates and some members of Congress have asked that the guidance also include what is called a 2-28 mortgage, under which borrowers have low, teaser rates during the first two years, after which payments increase.

Consumer groups also say they would like to see a "suitability" standard imposed on mortgages whereby lenders would be required to show that people got loans appropriate for them. Sugarman, for example, thinks putting Howard into an interest-only loan left the man with a "horrible situation." But banking trade groups oppose these proposals, saying they could curtail lending to some people who would otherwise have trouble getting loans they need.

Additional government regulation "could impede the ability of the market" to change to meet demand, said Doug Duncan, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

But Fishbein, the consumer activist, said legislators, regulators and lenders need to do more to protect consumers.

"We're not confident buyers are getting all the information they need," he said. "They don't understand the toxic environment."

DAX knackt nach über sechs Jahren wieder 7000 Punkte
Mittwoch 21. Februar 2007, 11:47 Uhr
de.biz.yahoo.com/21022007/3/dax-knackt-jahren-7000-punkte.html

Frankfurt/Main (dpa) - Der wichtigste Börsenindex DAX hat am Mittwoch erstmals seit mehr als sechs Jahren wieder die psychologisch wichtige Marke von 7000 Punkten geknackt. Gleich in den ersten Handelsminuten gewann der Leitindex 0,27 Prozent und sprang auf 7001 Punkte.

Zuletzt hatte der Deutsche Aktienindex (DAX (Xetra: Nachrichten) ) die 7000er-Marke im November 2000 übersprungen. Auch für den MDAX (Xetra: Nachrichten) der mittelgroßen Werte ging es auf Rekordhoch: Er stieg

ANZEIGE
mit plus 0,21 Prozent auf 10222 Zähler. Nach Ansicht von Ökonomen treiben die Rekordgewinne der deutschen Banken und Großkonzerne die Aktienmärkte. Aber auch die Weltwirtschaft und die gute konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland sowie Fusionen und Übernahmespekulationen bringen den Aktienindex nach oben. Deshalb rechnen die meisten Experten beim DAX mit weiter steigenden Kursen und einem Jahresendstand von bis zu 7500 Punkten.

Der DAX hatte seinen bisherigen Höchststand im März 2000 mit 8056 Punkten erreicht. Doch dann platzte die Technologieblase, und Bilanzskandale in den USA sowie die Terroranschlägen vom 11. September 2001 ließen den Index der 30 wichtigsten Unternehmen sinken. Es ging schnell abwärts, im März 2003 sank der DAX auf einen Tiefstand von 2202 Punkten.

Am Mittwoch wurde der DAX von positiven Unternehmensnachrichten getrieben. Aktien des Pharmaunternehmens Fresenius Medical Care setzten sich nach einer positiven Studie von J.P. Morgan mit einem Plus von 2,24 Prozent auf 114,09 Euro zunächst an die DAX-Spitze. Titel der Deutschen Börse legten vor Bekanntgabe der Bilanz 2006 um 1,45 Prozent auf 165,73 Euro zu. Das abgelaufene Jahr dürfte für den Frankfurt Marktbetreiber ein Rekordjahr gewesen sein. Das Unternehmen legt am Mittwoch nach dem Börsenschluss in Europa seine Bilanz vor. Dagegen gaben DaimlerChrysler-Aktien am Indexende um 1,06 Prozent auf 54,90 Euro nach. Laut einem Bericht des «Wall Street Journal» wollen weder Renault (Paris: FR0000131906 - Nachrichten) noch Nissan dem Autokonzern seine kriselnde US-Tocher Chrysler abkaufen.

(DAS INVESTMENT) Die sinkenden Immobilienpreise in den USA könnten die Aktienmärkte der Schwellenländer einbrechen lassen. Davor warnt Hedge-Fonds-Legende und Rohstoff-Experte Jim Rogers in einem Interview mit der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. Rogers zufolge könnten die Kurse von Schwellenländeraktien um bis zu 80 Prozent einbrechen.

„Einige Schwellenländermärkte werden höchstwahrscheinlich völlig zusammenbrechen“, sagt Rogers. Er selbst habe sich daher bereits von Schwellenländeraktien getrennt – mit Ausnahme chinesischer Werte. Zwar erwartet er auch für Aktien aus dem Land des Lächelns Kurseinbrüche von 30 bis 40 Prozent. In diesem Fall sei er jedoch bereit, diese hinzunehmen. Schließlich sei China weltweit die am stärksten wachsende Volkswirtschaft.

Der Grund für Rogers pessimistische Prognose ist die Entwicklung am US-Immobilienmarkt. Dort sind die Preise für Eigenheime im vergangenen Jahr kaum noch gestiegen, nachdem sie zuvor jahrelang in die Höhe geschnellt waren. Eine Studie des US-Immobilienbewerters Zillow zeigt sogar, dass Privathäuser in den USA Ende 2006 im Schnitt ein halbes Prozent billiger waren als ein Jahr zuvor. Die Folge: Viele Hypotheken auf Eigenheime sind nicht mehr gedeckt. Daher sind die Aktienkurse von US-Hypothekenbanken bereits in der vergangenen Woche gefallen und haben Finanzwerte weltweit mitgerissen.

Rogers zufolge sind die Korrekturen am US-Immobilienmarkt noch lange nicht vorbei. „In einigen Regionen der USA werden die Immobilienpreise um 40 bis 50 Prozent sinken“, sagt er. Diese Entwicklung werde vor allem auf die Aktienmärkte der Schwellenländer übergreifen.

INFO: Jim Rogers hat 1970 gemeinsam mit George Soros den Hedge-Fonds Quantum Fund gegründet. Dabei gehörten sie zu den ersten Hedge-Fonds-Managern, die ihre Produkte in den karibischen Steuerparadiesen auflegten. So konnten sie unabhängig von der amerikanischen Finanzaufsicht handeln und Steuervorteile nutzen. Im Jahr 1980 zog sich Rogers aus dem Management des Fonds zurück. Seitdem verwaltet er nur noch sein eigenes Vermögen, während Soros den Quantum Fund managt.

-thg-

© Der Fonds

Montag,
 19.03.2007US NAHB/WF Hausmarktindex MärzWoche 12  Uhrzeit: 18:00 (MEZ)Ort: Washington, D.C.Land: Vereinigte Staaten von AmerikaUhrzeit vor Ort: 13:00Beschreibung:

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zum US-amerikanischen Hausmarktindex der National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo ("NAHB/WF Housing Market Index", HMI) für März 2007


aktuell:

Der US-amerikanische Housing Market Index notiert im März bei 36. Im Vormonat hatte der index noch bei 39 gestanden.

1 hour agoHome Builder Confidence Slips over Subprime WorriesPosted By:Diana OlickTopics:Real Estate | Housing

Anxiety over trouble in the subprime mortgage market has home builders changing their vision of a recovery in the housing market.  After a slow and steady rise from a low in September, the monthly survey of home builder confidence from the National Association of Home Builders slipped three points in March.

"Builders are uncertain about the consequences of tightening mortgage lending standards for their home sales down the line,” says NAHB chief economist Dave Seiders.  “Some are already seeing effects of the subprime shakeout on current sales activity.”

As defaults and foreclosures rise, at 4.95% in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to the most recent survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, subprime lenders are feeling a world of hurt.  Subprimes are leading the surge in defaults and foreclosures, and more than two-dozen subprime lenders have gone belly up or been bought in just the last several months.

Big names like New Century Financial, which was delisted by the New York Stock Exchange last week and Accredited Home Loan, which is now subject to delisting by the Nasdaq for not filing its 10-K on time are just a few of the troubled lenders.  Both of those companies are now the  objects of lawsuits for allegedly misleading investors as to business and financial results, thereby artificially inflating stock prices.

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Related content

CNBC's Leisman: Economy Can Withstand Mortgage Meltdown National Assoiciation of Homebuilders

Home builders had been growing more confident in the housing market this winter, as cancellations slowed  and inventories began to shrink, but new homes, which are, on average, less expensive than existing homes, are dependent on a free-flowing mortgage market.  Many of the big public builders cater to first-time home buyers, buyers who might be classified as subprime borrowers due to low credit scores.  As the subprime market tightens under pressure from federal regulators and leery lenders, that has a very real impact on the builders.

“There’s no question that it’s going to be harder for a borrower to get a loan today than it was as recently as six months ago,” warns Guy Secala, president of Inside Mortgage Finance Publications.  Adjustable rate products aren’t offering a much better rate than fixed today, and no-money-down offers or “teaser rates”, now widely blamed for the subprime implosion, might as well be bad words in the mortgage market today.

“Borrowers are going to find that they’re going to have to put more money down when it comes to buying a home, they’re also going to find that they’re going to have to verify income and assets in a much stronger way,” adds Secala.

The  monthly builder confidence  data  released Monday are based on perception of three areas: current sales, sales expectations, and buyer traffic.  All registered lower, although sentiment was mixed regionally, with small increases in the Midwest and West, and larger drops in the South and Northeast.  The index is based on an average score of 50, with anything above being positive, anything below negative.  The score for March is 36, down from 54 just one year ago.

The NAHB continues to forecast modest improvement in home sales during the balance of 2007, although Seiders admits, “problems in the mortgage market increase the degree of uncertainty surrounding our baseline (i.e. most probable) forecast."

Questions?  Comments?  < script>document.write("");< /script>< script>document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");< /script>RealtyCheck@cnbc.com< script>document.write('');< /script>

Struktur:

Wie die Zahlen der Statistik zum Verkauf von „fabrikneuen“ und auch bestehenden Häusern zeigt, scheint sich der Boom am US Immobilienmarkt auszulaufen. Der Begriff fabrikneu ist sicher nicht vollkommen korrekt gewählt trifft aber wenn auch die Häuser nicht aus einer Fabrik kommen nach meiner Auffassung sehr wohl den Kern der Entstehungsweise. Der Anteil der Häuser die in den USA nach individuellen Plänen erstellt werden ist verschwindend gering. Der grossteil des privaten Wohnungsbau entsteht im House Tracking. Hier werden ganze Wohnviertel von einem Developer neu erstellt. In aller Regel gibt es einige Modelle 4-6 zwischen denen der Käufer auswählen kann. Von diesen Modellen werden dann massenhaft neue Häuser gebaut und verkauft. Nicht selten –wenn ein neues Wohnviertel eine entsprechende Größe aufweist- werden auch gleich neue Schulen und Sozialeinrichtungen mitgeliefert. Ein Stadtteil aus der Retorte sozusagen (Geschmackssache). Neben der reinen Quantität –Anzahl der verkauften Immobilien- gibt es aus der offiziellen Statistik noch qualitative Indikatoren wie den Inventory Level (Anzahl der auf dem Markt befindlichen Immobilien), oder average Time on the market. Eigentlich handelt es sich auch hier um quantitative Maßstäbe allerdings lassen sich durch diese Indikatoren bereits erste Rückschlüsse auf die Qualität des Immomarktes machen.

Diese offiziellen Zahlen sind hinreichend bekannt und somit will ich auch auf diese nicht eingehen. Wie ich eingangs bereits schrieb soll es sich hier um eine subjektive -aus persönlichen Beobachtungen gespeiste- Betrachtungsweise  handeln.

 

Wirtschaftliche Bedeutung:

Der Immobilienmarkt steht für 20% der amerikanischen Wirtschaftsleistung. In dieser Zahl sind keine Sekundäreffekte berücksichtig, soll heißen die Kaufkraft aus dieser Leistung die in den Konsum der US Wirtschaft fließt.

 

Einschätzung zur aktuellen Lage:

Eine kurze Unterscheidung vorweg. Es gibt Langzeiteigner –in geringerem Maße als wir es aus Europa kennen-, Kurzzeiteigner und eben alles auf der Zeitebene zwischen diesen beiden Kernpunkten. Im Großen und Ganzen spielt es jedoch keine Rolle über welchen Zeitraum man eine Immobilie besitzt sondern wie hoch diese beliehen ist. Auch wenn Langzeiteigner hier klar im Vorteil sind so ist es nicht unüblich eine Immobilie bereit seit sehr langer Zeit im Eigentum zu haben, diese aber dennoch bis zum Maximum zu beleihen. Somit kann man sicherlich auch nur bedingt von Eigentum sprechen denn eigentlich ist die Bank der Eigentümer.  Nun ist wie vielen sicherlich aus den Medien bekannt die Belastung der US Immobilien im Vergleich zu deutschen Verhältnissen sehr hoch. Ein großer Teil der Konsumausgaben der letzten Jahre sind durch Beleihungen der Immobilien finanziert worden. So ist es nicht unüblich eine bestehende Hypothek immer wieder zu erhöhen um den Lebensstandard zu finanzieren. Mit fallenden Zinsen um steigendem Marktwert der Immobilien war diese über einen langen Zeitraum relativ leicht möglich. Nun hat die US Notenbank vor ca. zwei Jahren begonnen die Zinsen anzuheben. Bei vielen Krediten in den USA handelt es sich um sogenannte adjustable mortage rates. Hier wird in der Regel der Kreditzins alle zwei Jahre an den Marktzins angepasst. Somit kommt es nun zu einer ersten Erhöhungsrunde und der Immomarkt fühlt den Zinsanstieg nicht nur im Neugeschäft sondern auch im bestehenden Geschäft mit voller Härte.

 

 

Pause: Teil III folgt.

 

Gruß

 

Permanent

zu 135.

Sorry Permanent, aber das ist ein selten blöder Artikel...

Die der Immobilienmarkt in den USA hat tatsächlich so viel mit den Aktienmärkten der Schwellenländer zu tun wie Schweinebäuche und Ölaktien, oder der Kaffeepreis mit meinem Gehalt.

Seit Monaten schreibt man hier vom großen "CRASH" und nix ist passiert, eine Korrektur gab es, nicht mehr und nicht weniger,

aber Schwarzmaler haben immer Konjunktur.

Grüße Abenteurer

Ich würde ganz vorsichtig sein, jemand wie Rogers als "blöd" zu bezeichnen. ...
Und was Rogers meinte, kannst selbst Du vielleicht erkennen, wenn Du mal 5 Minuten nachdenkst. Und wenn nicht, dann mal eine kleine Hilfe:

Die USA stellt - außer dem grünen Klopapapier - nicht mehr viel her, was die Welt wirklich braucht. Konsumiert aber wie ein Wahnsinniger. Brechen nun wirklich die Häuserpreise um 50 % ein, kommt es für den jetzt schon vollkommen überschuldeten US - Bürger zum Super GAU - er kann nicht mehr konsumieren. Und da die Schwellenländer einen Großteil der Waren liefern die dort konsumiert werden, brechen dort die Aktienkurse ein.
Und beschäftige Dich mal mit Rogers. Das ist kein Sesselfurzer der hinter dem Computer sitzt und auf Zahlen starrt. Der fährt vor Ort und schaut sich die Sache an. Wie früher Buffett.
Und vermutlich hat er bei der Gelegenheit mal einen Tag am Hafen zugebracht und gesehen, das viele Schiffe viele Waren in die USA bringen - und leer wieder wegfahren. Und sich dann gedacht, wenn hier der Konsum einbricht, dürfte das nicht gut für die Länder sein, wo die Schiffe herkommen....



Wertzuwachs

ob gewisse User beim Dax-Stand von 6000 auch den Anstand haben, Ihre Fehleinschätzungen genau so großzügig zuzugeben, wie sie jetzt spöttisch auf die Bären herabschauen.

Der Euro konnte sich bei einem ruhigen Handel zum Wochenbeginn gegenüber dem USDollar im Bereich der Marke von 1,33 USD festsetzen und dürfte in den kommenden Tagen den Widerstand bei 1,3371 USD ins Visier nehmen. Der ungarische Forint und der polnische Zloty verbuchten am Montag zeitweise kräftige Gewinne, nachdem die EZB den Paritätskurs der slowakischen Krone im Rahmen des Wechselkursmechanismus II am späten Freitag auf 35,4424 SKK (zuvor: 38,4450 SKK) neu festgelegt hatte, was einer Anpassung um 8,5 % entspricht. Der untere Interventionspunkt liegt nun bei 30,1260 SKK (zuvor: 32,6868 SKK). Der Euro verlor zur Krone rund 3 % und notierte mit Kursen von weniger als 33 SKK auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit seiner Einführung. Das aktuelle Statement der EZB, dass die Leitzinsen „moderat“ sind, bedeutet für EZB-Ratsmitglied Garganas nicht, dass der Gipfel im Zinszyklus bereits erreicht ist. In den USA enttäuschte der NAHB-Hausmarktindex, der im März auf 36 (von revidiert 39) Punkte fiel. Werte unterhalb von 50 Punkten signalisieren hier eine Kontraktion. Die Bank of Japan hat die Leitzinsen erwartungsgemäß unverändert bei 0,50 % belassen. Die Entscheidung dazu fiel einstimmig aus.

Bund-Future: Leicht angeschlagen

Für heute rechnen wir beim Bund-Future mit Notierungen im Bereich der Marke von 116.

 

Zwischen den Aktienmärkten und der Wirtschaft besteht keine direkte Verbindung, will sagen, auch in einer Rezession können Aktienpreise steigen und auch in einer wirtschaftlichen Boomzeit fallen......Du siehst also, Deine Aussage hinkt da etwas....

Nix für ungut, die Heuschrecke redet Unsinn.

Grüße Abenteurer


PS: Lieber Leute, ich weiß natürlich dass das hier der Bärenthread ist und ich mit meinem Optimismus fehl am Platze bin, aber gönnt mir doch die Freude, Euch so aller paar Monate mal wieder darauf hinzuweisen, das die hier anfänglich gemachten Aussagen sich einfach nicht bewahrheitet haben. Da schrieb man vor einem Jahr von der Katastrophe die durch die Immobilienblase auf die Aktienmärkte zukommen würde und was ist passiert? Nix, nein das Gegenteil. Der Dax hat gleich noch 1000 Punkte zugelegt, der Dow war auf einem neuen Allzeithoch und auch der Rest der Welt konnte vom weiteren Verlauf der Hausse profitieren.....

ist tatsächlich aus seinen Emerging Markets Investments ausgestiegen, bis auf China.
Hab neulich mal ne Reportage über den Typ gesehen; der läßt sogar seine Tochter (ca. 4 Jahre) von Privatlehrern in chinesisch unterrichten.

Jim Rogers ist sicher kein Dummkopf  und muß im Gegensatz zu den Herren Bernanke und Greespan keine Rücksicht auf politische Empfindungen nehmen. Den Chinesischunterricht der Tochter (siehe Posting 147 von obgicou kann ich bestätigen). Die Welt wird nicht unter gehen und die USA bestimmt nicht aber eine Delle werden wir sehen.

Solltest du Zeit haben so lies dir die ersten Posting einmal durch. Hier kommt meine Erwartung zur Krise ganz klar als nicht "PERMANENT" sondern als ein  temporäres heftiges Ereignis zum Ausdruck.

In einem solche Szeanrio sind die Annahmen von Rogers nicht so abwegig.

Hier einmal eine Wiederholung von Posting :

Obwohl ich kurzfristig recht negativ zu den US Märkten eingestellt bin würde ich nie soweit gehen diese mittel- bis langfristig abzuschreiben.

Das amerikanische Volk ist überduchschnittlich flexibel, abenteuerlustig und kreativ. Dazu kommt das die USA nach wie vor eine magische Anziehungskraft auf unternehmerisch denkende Individuen in aller Welt ausstrahlen.

 

Hier ein kleiner Exkurs:

Bodie... Its life and times. Here you'll see what's left of Bodie. An original ghost town from the late 1800's. Bodie stands today in a state of "arrested decay". So coined by the State of California when they took over the town in 1962 to make it a State Historic Park. In 1859 William (a.k.a. Waterman) S. Bodey discovered gold near what is now called Bodie Bluff. A mill was established in 1861 and the town began to grow. It started with about 20 miners and grew to an estimated 10,000 people by 1880! By that time, the town of Bodie bustled with families, robbers, miners, store owners, gunfighters and prostitutes of all kinds. At one time there was reported to be 65 saloons in town. Amongst the saloons were numerous brothels and 'houses of ill repute', gambling halls and opium dens. Needless to say that there was entertainment for every taste. After a long day working the claims, the miners would head for the bars and the red light district to spend their earnings. The mixture of money, gold and alcohol would often prove fatal. It is said that there was a man killed every day in Bodie. Presumably, the undertaker never had a slow day. There are records that say that Wm. Body took a ship from New York, around the horn to end up in San Francisco. The name of the town was changed at some point in time, before the majority of the people made their way to Bodie. There are different stories as to why - one says it was to keep the correct pronunciation of town's namesake. Another says that the sign painter didn't have the room for the tail of the lower-case "y". Today, even though Bodie is lost down a dusty 13 mile long road, off of state highway 395, it is amazing just how many people are aware of this once glorious town. There's a story about a little girl whose family moved from San Francisco to Bodie. Depending on who tells you, or where you read it, she wrote either: "Good, by God, I'm going to Bodie" or "Goodbye God, I'm going to Bodie". Once you get through this site, you'll have to decide for yourself.

 

Nicht ganz so persönlicher Blick auf Immobilien..just for INFO

U.S. stock futures turn up on strong housing data
Marketwatch - March 20, 2007 9:00 AM ET
MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures nudged higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, as a stronger-than-expected rebound in new home starts helped offset investor caution ahead of the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. See full story.

Economic Report: Housing starts bounce back 9% in February

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Groundbreaking on new homes rebounded by 9% in February after a 14% decline in January, but less volatile building permits declined by 2.5%, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. See full story.

Accredited Home Lenders gets $200 million loan commitment

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., continuing its struggle to remain liquid, said Tuesday it's secured a $200 million term-loan financing commitment from Farallon Capital Management, backed by a warrant issue. See full story.

Europe Markets: Europe loses ground as Fed meeting nears; ABN Amro rallies

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European shares lost ground on Tuesday as gains from banks such as ABN Amro were offset by some caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision and poorly-received received earnings from Deutsche Post and Friends Provident. See full story.

Retailers look for strong Easter season

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Let the spring shopping begin. See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Irwin Kellner: Energy costs are making the Fed's job more difficult

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- It's only the first day of spring, but with gasoline prices already rising for more than a month, you can imagine where they'll be on Memorial Day. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Consider these improvements before putting a house up for sale

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The interior walls are neutral. The clutter is a distant memory. A shower door has been replaced and even the design of the bedspread has been factored in. The Green family's Chicago home also got a professional inspection and appraisal to limit any surprises down the road, said Dan Green. Now it is ready for sale. See full story.

Da magst Du recht haben, nur kann es eben für einen Einbruch an den Aktienmärkten viele Ursachen geben, die dann aber auf die ehemalige Blase am Immobilienmarkt zurückzuführen ist m.M.n. an den Haaren herbeigezogen.

Ich glaube Du wirst mir zustimmen, dass es zwischen dem Immobilienmarkt und dem Aktienmarkt keinen direkten Zusammenhang gibt. Einzig über den Faktor Geld sind diese Märkte verbunden. Will sagen, dass wenn die Anleger anfangen Milliarden aus Immobilienfonds rauszuziehen dieses Geld natürlich einer neuen Anlage bedarf. Welcher Markt wäre da interessanter als der Aktienmarkt. Und auch da wirst Du mir sicher zustimmen, dass Aktien im historischen Vergleich (KGV) immer noch sehr günstig sind. Die Zahl 7000 beim Dax ist nicht sehr aussagekräftig, denn die Unternehmen die im Dax gelistet sind, sind heute real viel mehr Wert, als das letzte mal, bei einem Dax-Stand von 7000.

Sorry muss jetzt mal weiter arbeiten, die gehen mir gerade hier auf den Keks, später mehr

Grüße Abenteurer