Pemberton to drill three areas at Gething formation
2007-10-25 06:06 ET - News Release
Mr. Richard Saxon reports
PEMBERTON LOOKS FORWARD TO ECONOMIC GROWTH
Pemberton Energy Ltd., as a result of the successful conclusion of technical work on the 3-D seismic, Chapman Petroleum Engineering Ltd. has recommended three firm drilling locations to the company at this time, targeting multizone potentially gas-bearing horizons in the Mesozoic subsurface section.
The first two proposed location would test a seismic amplitude anomaly interpreted to be a Gething central channel complex with stratigraphically trapped natural gas. The last location would test two zones, a Gething side channel complex and a Notikewin AVO gas anomaly.
The Gething formation is approximately 60 metres thick in this area and consists of fluvial-deltaic sands, silts and shale with a coal measures zone approximately 24 metres in thickness comprising the central section of the formation.
The Gething formation on one of the proposed locations is interpreted to have an anomalous thickness of 84 metres due to a basal channel complex incised into the underlying Jurassic Fernie formation. The entire basal channel complex is 22 metres in thickness and consist of a lower channel complex comprising three upward coarsening sands that are capped by a five-metre-thick coal sequence. This coal sequence can provide both a possible source and seal for any gas reservoirs contained in the underlying basal channel sands. Net pay for Gething producers typically is three- to five-metre.
The Notikewin formation is a Lower Cretaceous clastic deposit approximately 270 metres shallower then the Gething formation in this part of the Western Canada sedimentary basin. The Notikewin formation is approximately 65 metres thick in the Fairview area and consists of fluvial-deltaic sands, silts and shale. Immediately to the north of Pemberton's property the Gage Notikewin A pool is producing gas from a structural stratigraphic trap. Clean and very porous sands approximately 15 metres thick are found in this pool. Gas pay averages 3.5 metres over water.
Economics
Economic evaluation of the Gething zone based on a model using 22 producers in this immediate area showed a best estimate of per well prospective resources to be 2.1 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas with a best estimate initial rate on 1.0 million square cubic feet per day. Prospective resources are defined as those quantities of oil and gas estimated on a given date to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations. They are technically viable and economic to recover. The unrisked expected mean value (EMV) for the 100 per cent case was $4,365,000 and the risked EMV for the 100 per cent case was $971,000, both values at a discount rate of 10 per cent. The probability of success (POS) for the risked case was estimated to be 33 per cent with the capital exposure estimated to be $700,000, the cost of drilling one exploratory well. As can be seen on the risk analysis chart below, the minimum POS needed for this project to obtain a 10 percent rate of return is 14 per cent. As POS was estimated at 33 per cent, the drilling of a Gething exploratory well is considered feasible.
GETHING EXPLORATORY WELL BEST ESTIMATE PROSPECT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
Total values
Discount rate % Undisc. 5 10 15 20
Unrisked value $ 7,883,000 5,719,000 4,365,000 3,458,000 2,816,000
Risked value $ 2,132,400 1,418,300 971,400 672,100 460,300
Minimum prob
of success
required % 8.2 10.9 13.8 16.8 19.9
An economic evaluation of the Notikewin zone based on the Gage Notikewin A pool showed a best estimate of per well prospective resources to be 1.4 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas with a best estimate initial rate on 1.5 million square cubic feet per day. Prospective resources are defined as those quantities of oil and gas estimated on a given date to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations. They are technically viable and economic to recover. The unrisked expected mean value (EMV) for the 100 per cent case was $3,557,000 and the risked EMV for the 100 per cent case was $772,000, both values at a discount rate of 10 per cent. The probability of success (POS) for the risked case was estimated to be 33 per cent with the capital exposure estimated to be $600,000, the cost of drilling one exploratory well. As can be seen on the risk analysis chart below, the minimum POS needed for this project to obtain a 10-per-cent rate of return is 14 per cent. As POS was estimated at 33 per cent, the drilling of a Notikewin exploratory well is also considered feasible.
NOTIKEWIN EXPLORATORY WELL BEST ESTIMATE PROSPECT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC PARAMETERS
Total values
Discount rate % Undisc. 5 10 15 20
Unrisked value $ 4,928,000 4,154,000 3,557,000 3,085,000 2,705,000
Risked value $ 1,224,200 968,800 771,800 616,100 490,700
Minimum prob
of success
required % 10.9 12.6 14.4 16.3 18.2
(*) Disclaimer: The net present value does not represent fair market
value of the property.
The recognition of a basal Gething channel sequence from wells drilled in the area has lead to the development of a play concept that was confirmed by the seismic interpretation of the 3-D seismic survey. Additionally, an AVO interpretation of the 3-D seismic done by Hampson-Russell has identified an AVO gas anomaly in the Notikewin formation. Economic evaluation both risked and unrisked on the proposed three locations for immediate drilling is favourable.
As a result of the technical work on the 3-D seismic by Chapman Engineering Ltd., deeper potentially oil bearing targets in the Paleozoic subsurface section are also indicated by the interpretation but have not been finalized.
Pemberton also wishes to advise that it has engaged the services of Pajak Engineering Ltd. as a project manager for the drilling of these wells. Pajak Engineering Ltd. will provide project management, engineering and field supervision for the surveying, construction , drilling, completion, testing and reclamation operations. Pemberton has instructed Pajak Engineering Ltd. to begin surveying and licensing for the wells immediately.
Pemberton's immediate plan of action is to drill these three shallow gas targets immediately, which, if successful, will provide significant cash flow based on the economics seen in this news release. The first well to be drilled will target multiple zones, Notikewin and Gething, as this drill target has a potential to produce from both of these gas-bearing zones giving the company necessary cash flow to develop next phase of the company's drill program.
We seek Safe Harbor.
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