Interessanter Fund auf iHub,
nach intensiver Kalkulation kommt Han2004fl auf einen Wert für unsere AAGH von 1,6 bis 3,0 Dollar.
Aber lest selbst und bildet Euch selbst eine Meinung.
smoky
Posted by: Han2004fl
In reply to: None
§Date:10/2/2007 12:10:04 AM
Post #of 12357
AAGH ‘s DD and some calculations and LINKs
It puts us at $1.6 to $3 a share with P/E of 5, expected revenue of $3.5 millions in ads revenue per episode, cost of production is 40% of the revenue.
(before I start, I want those TA’s guys to know that, fortunately, stock price DOES NOT solely determined by charts but other factors. I only have 15 free posts per day and I was out of free posts to answer to their comment. So here is the fundamental side.)
FACTS:
You can find my numbers from articles from links I will be posting below.
•§In early 2001, each show of WWTBAM in the USA costs $700,000 to produce per episode. Revenue is $1.5 - $2 million in advertising revenue ( more for special celebrity editions.) I guess we can say an average of $1.75 millions in ads revenue per episode. www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/...1027384282817_22793482
•§WWTBAM (not even two years old back then) generated around $1 billion in revenue and “more when you count the ripple effects.” www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/...1027384282817_22793482
•§In 2005, India’s version of WWTBAM was “the country’s most popular television program” www.fredonia.edu/department/communication/schwalbe/indiatv.htm
•§Apr 2007, French commercial broadcaster(TF1), home of WWTBAM has set advertising revenue growth of 6 to 8%, an acceleration from 3.7% growth in 2006 www.reuters.com/article/...edia-telco-SP/idUSL2320028220070423
•§In 2000, WWTBAM was single handedly saved Disney because of the huge revenue from the show. money.cnn.com/2000/08/03/companies/earns_disney/index.htm
•§WWTBAM Vietnamese version generates top advertising dollars flowing into the country, June 2007. $3400 per 30 seconds slot. GDP growth at 8.5% online.wsj.com/public/article/...K_DgTfRBZY_20070705.html?....
CALCULATION and COMPARISON:
We know that 30 second spots in Vietnam costs $3,400. Let say each 60 minutes show have 10 minutes of advertising time (in Vietnam, USA, China).
GDP (ppp) 2006: Vietnam’s: $3,400; China’s: $7,700 (2.26x of Vietnam’s);USA’s: $37,800 (11.11x of Vietnam’s)
Population/Market Size (2006): Vietnam’s: 85 millions; China’s: 1.3 billions (15.3X of Vietnam’s); USA’s 300 millions (3.53x of Vietnam’s)
Vietnam’s Calculation:
$3,400 x 2 ads per minute x 10 minutes = $68,000 of ads revenue of 10 minutes per a 60 minutes episode.
USA’s Calculation:
If we use Vietnam’s revenue and work backward to see how it compares to that of USA in 2001.
$68,000 x 11.11 GDP differences x 3.53 Population differences = $2.66 million in ads revenue of 10 minutes per a 60 minutes episode.
We know that about 6 years ago in the USA, advertising revenue from the show is around $2 million per episode. $1.75 millions at 5% growth in advertising and inflation rate for 6 years = $2.35 millions. Basically, $1.75 million in 2001 equal $2.35 millions in 2007 after adjustment for interest rate.
China’s Calculation:
$68,000 x 2.26 GDP differences x 15.29 Population differences = $2.35 millions. BINGO!!!!
I believe that China’s ads revenue will be around $2.35 millions for 10 minutes of ads per 60 minutes episode. But in China we have 90 minutes episode. $2.35 x 1.5 = $3.5 millions in ads revenue per Saturday new episode.
Using the USA’s cost structure (40% of ads revenue 700K/1750K), each episode in China will generate $2.1 million profit per 90 minutes episode.
104 episode x $2.1 = $218 millions in profit = $109 millions in profit for 52 episode (1 year).
What should PPS be? Remember we have other products as well. Let say other products/services generate enough revenue to cover operation and administration expenses. So net profit for 1 year forward is $109 millions.
AAGH owns 60% of CMP. Net profit for AAGH’s shareholders = $65.4 millions per year.
With 109 million shares in O/S = $0.60 a share in net profit (EPS after taxes)a year from now.
With 200 million shares in O/S = $0.327 a share in net profit (EPS after taxes) a year from now.
ALSO, it’s to note that I haven’t even add the advertising revenue from the rerun on Sunday afternoon for this show in China. Maybe it’s worth $1 million extra a week in net income or $ 0.156 - $0.286 in EPS (after taxes) a year (60% of CMP and at 40% cost).
What will you give P/E for a company such as AAGH giving 1) in China super hot market, 2) more shows are to be under the umbrella 2) EPS after taxes’ potential of $0.327 - $0.60 a share ending 3rd qtr 2008?
Current share price $0.29 a share. This is ways undervalued. From this calculation I present, I don’t see any reason why AAGH should be traded at $1.635 - $3.00 a share right now (without adding Sunday rerun revenue). That is only P/E of 5.
Please cut and past this and post it around if you like. I think this is the time that FUNDAMENTAL should OUTSHINE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
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