SOTP Bear Case – Summary
Methodological note: Nynomic does not publish segment figures per subsidiary. Revenue estimates are based on headcount data, annual report disclosures, acquisition press releases, and industry triangulation. The SOTP is an analytical tool for range-finding, not a pinpoint valuation.
Even in our most conservative scenario, no NLIR success, no cannabis optionality, no integration premium, all subsidiaries at discount multiples versus peers – the sum of the parts paints a clear picture: m-u-t €30m, tec5 €26m, Avantes €16m, Sensortherm €6m, art photonics €6m, small positions €1.5m, NLIR €2m. This yields an operational enterprise value of approximately €87.5 million, without LayTec. In our earlier articles, we valued LayTec at up to €100 million, factoring in that Aixtron’s order dynamics will flow through to LayTec and lead to a doubling of revenues by 2028. The €100 million then results from a revenue multiple of 3x. Many will call this very conservative. Personally, I consider it justified for a company of this size.
Adding the estimated net cash position of roughly €8 million, we arrive at a conservative-base-case equity value of approximately €200 million – or about €33-34 per share (based on 5.9 million shares). At a current market capitalisation of roughly €125 million, even the bear case implies moderate upside. Downside risk is well-cushioned by the net cash position and diversification across multiple end markets. With the exception of LayTec, our applied multiples are genuinely conservative.
If we want to keep it simple, we can apply a 2x revenue multiple to the 2026 revenue, which results in an enterprise value of around €210 million. Based on the analysis of the individual companies, I definitely think this approach is justified.