Merkwürdige Gerüchte/Commerce One

Gewinnwarnung ??????

                   right now, that everyone is going to miss." Santana couched that statement
                   by saying that he didn't think the economy is as bad as some think, and that
                   the recent selloff in software was likely a buying opportunity.

                   Software's harbinger for this coming season of discontent was Oracle. A day
                   after its February quarter closed, the second-largest software company said it
                   would miss consensus earnings expectations by 2 cents, and that its revenue
                   would be short by, oh, a quarter of a billion dollars. More details will come
                   when it reports official results Thursday afternoon, but basically, in the face of
                   the deteriorating economy, the software giant struggled to close deals during
                   the last week of its February quarter.

                   Now, with most other software firms slumping toward the end of their March
                   quarters, watch for that pattern to repeat.

                   "In terms of which companies have the highest probability of missing Street
                   expectations, I'd put Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq - news) right at the top of the list,"
                   said Jim Moore, an analyst with Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown who rates
                   Ariba a buy. "They still have 75% or 80% of their quarter left to do." (Moore's
                   firm has done underwriting for Ariba.)

                   An Ariba spokeswoman didn't return a call seeking comment.

                   Other companies that Moore sees at risk include Commerce One
                   (CMRC:Nasdaq - news) and i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news). (He
                   rates both a buy, and his firm hasn't done underwriting for either.)

                   "I think we're in the same boat as everyone," says Brent Anderson, director of
                   investor relations at i2. "We'll do our damnedest to make sure that we hit our
                   plan, but we're obviously operating in an economy that's not where it was last
                   year, and a more challenging environment overall."

                   A spokesman for Commerce One declined comment, citing its quarter-end
                   quiet period mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

                   Moore's not picking on those companies without reason. Ariba and
                   Commerce One executives made cautious statements about their quarters at
                   recent investment conferences. And i2 CEO Sanjiv Sidhu took the opportunity
                   to relay uncertainty about i2's quarter when it announced its planned
                   acquisition of RightWorks last week.

                   From Moore's perspective, this is as bad for software as it's ever been.

                   "In 20 years in the software business, I've never seen demand dry up like this
                   so precipitously," Moore says. "If this economy stays bad for another six
                   months, these stocks could easily come down another 50% to 60%."

                   Ariba and Commerce One are already 90% below their 52-week highs, and i2
                   is off 79% from its 12-month peak. Oracle is down 66% from its respective
                   top.

                   Other software companies that are on analysts' lists of potential
                   warnings-issuers include Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - news),
                   PeopleSoft (PSFT:Nasdaq - news) and E.piphany (EPNY:Nasdaq - news).
                   That said, most analysts still have generally high hopes for the likes of BEA
                   Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq - news), which is on an April quarter and Veritas
                   Software (VRTS:Nasdaq - news), which reiterated its guidance recently for
                   its March quarter.

                   But even if some companies do manage to get out of their March quarters
                   unscathed, the rest of the year is anything but a given. Which is why, in some
                   observers' eyes, these stocks have been sinking steadily for weeks with the
                   rest of technology.

                   "I think the market's discounted any warnings we would have through the end
                   of the year," says David Garrity, an analyst for Dresdner Kleinwort
                   Wasserstein. "[March quarter warnings] are a nice idea, but the market's
                   looking way beyond that at this point."

                   It's that sort of sentiment that has led analyst after analyst to lower revenue
                   and earnings expectations across the software board. Which means that as
                   software share prices have sunk, they haven't necessarily become less
                   expensive, because the numbers they're judged against are smaller, too.

                   "We went through a painful process over the last few months of resetting
                   multiples as we move to the historical PE-to-growth valuations in software
                   land," says Deutsche Banc's Moore. "The next part of the torture is to reset
                   growth rates and earnings expectations, which could further drag down market
                   caps."

                   Take that as fair warning, before they come

TheStreet.com

Gruß Dampf

Der Aktienkurs von Ariba hatte sich nach dem Unterschreiten der 50 $ Marke im Sturzflug nach unten bewegt.  Bisheriges Tief bei 10,25 $.  Der OBV zeigt an, daß selbst auf einem Kursniveau von 11-25 $ massiv Kapital aus der Aktie abgezogen wurde. Diese Gesetzmäßigkeit sollte man sich merken.   Wenn bei optisch günstigen Aktienkurse der OBV trotzdem senkrecht nach unten weist, sollte man auf keinen Fall kaufen !


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