24.07.2008 12:08
PotashCorp Surpasses Previous Quarterly Earnings Record by Over 60 Percent
SASKATOON, SK, July 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (News) (PotashCorp) today reported record second-quarter earnings of $2.82 per share(1) ($905.1 million), a 220 percent increase over the $0.88 per share ($285.7 million) earned in last year's second quarter. This represents the highest quarterly earnings in company history - 62 percent above the record $1.74 per share ($566.0 million) set in first-quarter 2008 - and reflects rising global fertilizer demand and the impact of significantly higher prices for potash, nitrogen and phosphate products. Record quarterly gross margin of $1.4 billion was up 187 percent from the $501.4 million generated in the second quarter of 2007, with all three nutrients making record contributions. Earnings for the first six months of 2008 were $4.54 per share ($1.5 billion), more than triple the $1.50 per share ($483.7 million) earned in the first half of last year and higher than the record $3.40 per share ($1.1 billion) earned for the full year 2007. First-half gross margin reached $2.3 billion, compared to $871.1 million in the first six months of 2007, and has already exceeded the record full-year total of $1.9 billion set last year.
Cash flow from operating activities prior to working capital changes(2) reached $1.1 billion for the quarter and $1.7 billion for the first six months of 2008, compared to $473.7 million for the second quarter of 2007 and $756.7 million for the first half of that year. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization(2) in the quarter grew to $1.4 billion from $496.4 million in last year's second quarter, raising first-half EBITDA to $2.2 billion compared to $877.4 million in the same period of 2007.
This strong performance was enhanced by our offshore investments in Arab Potash Company Ltd. (APC) in Jordan, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) in Chile, Israel Chemical Ltd. (ICL) in Israel and Sinofert Holdings Limited (Sinofert) in China, which added $94.0 million to our before-tax earnings in the quarter. Year to date, these investments have contributed $117.4 million to our other income and the total market value of our investments today is $9.8 billion, roughly equivalent to $30 per PotashCorp share.
"This quarter established a new standard of performance for our company," said PotashCorp President and Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle. "We are experiencing strong growth in demand and are capturing the value of higher prices in all three nutrients, especially in potash. With farmers around the world striving to maximize yields and placing a priority on fertilization, this quarter provided a glimpse of the future potential of our company."
Market Conditions
Fertilizer demand remained strong, fuelled by the global need to increase food production and by supportive crop commodity prices. Corn prices in the second quarter were up more than 60 percent from the same period last year, while soybean prices were almost double. This is providing farmers with record income and significant motivation to increase acreage planted and yields.
The resulting tight fertilizer supply/demand fundamentals impacted all three nutrients in the quarter, and were clearly evident in higher product prices. First, in potash, inventories were reduced to historically low levels around the world. For example, reported North American producer inventories were 41 percent below the previous five-year average at the end of June, an extremely low level given upcoming summer maintenance shutdowns. Global demand remains unsatisfied, even without considering the protracted contract settlements that left China approximately 3 million tonnes short of previously expected 2008 potash requirements.
Global nitrogen and phosphate supply was impacted in the second quarter by China, the world's largest urea exporter and second-largest phosphate exporter in 2007. China introduced a 35 percent tax on phosphate and nitrogen exports during the first quarter to protect its domestic supply, and then raised it to 135 percent effective from April 20 to September 30, 2008. Phosphate supply tightened further in May when a severe earthquake struck Sichuan Province, which produces 11 percent of China's phosphate rock and a significant amount of related downstream fertilizer, feed and industrial products. In nitrogen, while higher global costs for oil and natural gas supported higher product prices and generally restricted product movement to regions relatively close to the source of production, the Chinese export tax immediately and significantly drove world urea prices higher.
Phosphate producers without an integrated supply of phosphate rock continued to be affected by rising costs for key inputs. The price of rock from Morocco rose to $350-$400 per tonne, compared to $190 in the first quarter of 2008 and $56 in last year's second quarter. Delivered sulfur prices rose to $800 per tonne or higher in China and India, while US molten sulfur prices increased $200 per long ton from the first quarter of 2008.
Potash
Quarterly potash gross margin of $886.4 million was 240 percent higher than the $260.4 million of last year's second quarter and approached 2007's record full-year gross margin, reflecting the benefit of rising prices. For the first six months of 2008, potash generated gross margin of $1.4 billion, more than triple the $434.6 million of the first half of 2007. Gross margin as a percentage of net sales rose to 79 percent compared to 59 percent in the same quarter last year.
As demand continued to exceed available supply in the quarter, PotashCorp and Canpotex, the offshore marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers, shipped volumes to customers in North America and offshore, respectively, on an allocation basis. The per-tonne North American realized price of $403 was up 122 percent quarter over quarter, as we realized five price increases in that time totaling more than $330 per tonne. This includes the $80-per-short-ton increase established for March-May deliveries while $150-$175 increases announced for June 1 began to be realized. The offshore realized price of $417 was up 192 percent from last year's second quarter as, since that time, Canpotex realized 10 price increases totaling approximately $520 per tonne to Brazil and eight increases totaling $465 per tonne to Southeast Asia. It also began to realize the $355-per-tonne increase built into India's new contract in March, while the $400-per-tonne increase in China's contract signed in April did not appear until late in the quarter because of limited available supply.
Quarterly potash sales volumes of 2.7 million tonnes were the second highest in our history, trailing only last year's second quarter, which we entered with 1.1 million tonnes of inventory and therefore had more product to sell. By quarter-end, our inventories had declined to a record-low 315,000 tonnes, 58 percent below the same time last year and 53 percent below March 31, 2008 levels. North American customers continued to purchase available potash supply despite a weather-delayed spring season, pushing up sales volumes by 3 percent quarter over quarter to 1.1 million tonnes. Offshore volumes for the quarter were 1.6 million tonnes, 7 percent below the same period last year due to lack of available product. Canpotex shipments were down 3 percent quarter over quarter, but up 12 percent year-to-date. Compared to the same period in 2007, second-quarter volumes to Brazil increased by 36 percent to 670,000 tonnes, to Southeast Asia by 49 percent to 825,000 tonnes and to India by 28 percent to 310,000 tonnes. Those countries consumed volumes made available by delays in the negotiation with China, which received only 150,000 tonnes in the quarter (down 82 percent from the second quarter of 2007).
Potash cost of goods sold was almost $21 per tonne higher than in the same quarter last year, largely due to three factors: the translation of Canadian-dollar production costs to a weaker US dollar ($9 per tonne), potash royalties included in the cost of goods sold ($5 per tonne) as a result of higher potash prices, and higher brine inflow costs at New Brunswick ($4 per tonne).
Three-year contracts with unionized employees at each of Cory, Allan and Patience Lake expired on April 30, 2008, and through the course of negotiations, PotashCorp has provided our best and final offer, which we believe is fair, reasonable and responsible. No settlement has yet been reached and, on July 21, 2008, these employees gave their respective bargaining units the authorization to strike. On July 23, each bargaining unit served the company with a strike notice, which enables them to strike at any time following the expiration of 48 hours after the notice was served. In response to the strike notice, PotashCorp served each bargaining unit a lockout notice, which enables us to lock these employees out at any time 48 hours after the notice was served. While we cannot predict the likelihood, form or timing of any work stoppage at these locations, we believe we have appropriate contingency plans in place.
Nitrogen
In a strong pricing environment underpinned by high world energy prices and heavy global agricultural demand, our nitrogen segment generated a record $210.0 million of gross margin in the quarter. This is 46 percent higher than the $144.2 million generated in the same quarter last year, and 13 percent more than the previous record of $185.4 million generated in the first quarter of this year. Year-to-date nitrogen gross margin of $395.4 million is 44 percent ahead of 2007. Our Trinidad operation, which benefits from long-term, lower-cost natural gas contracts, generated $91.8 million in second-quarter gross margin, even with volumes significantly reduced by a major plant outage. This compared to $77.2 million in the same quarter last year. Our US operations, which are geographically insulated from Gulf imports, contributed $106.3 million in gross margin, while hedging gains added $11.9 million.
Realized prices for ammonia increased 70 percent quarter over quarter, while urea prices rose 50 percent from the same quarter last year. The higher prices for other nitrogen fertilizers pushed nitrogen solutions prices up 44 percent compared to the same period of 2007.
Second-quarter ammonia sales volumes fell by 25 percent from 2007, due to reduced product availability resulting from a 53-day shutdown at our Trinidad 04 plant. Urea sales volumes rose 6 percent quarter over quarter, as the negative impact of the delayed 2008 spring season was outweighed by the effect of significantly lower offshore imports that reduced pressure on sales from North American producers. The combination of the late spring and restricted availability of production inputs led to a 31 percent drop in nitrogen solutions volumes.
Driven by significantly higher Tampa ammonia prices to which our Trinidad natural gas cost is indexed, our total average gas cost in the quarter, including hedge, was $7.74 per MMBtu. This was 76 percent higher than in the same quarter of 2007 but 29 percent below the NYMEX average for the second quarter of 2008 of $10.83 per MMBtu.
Phosphate
Substantially higher prices drove second-quarter phosphate gross margin to a record $340.9 million, 252 percent higher than the $96.8 million generated in the same quarter last year. Year-to-date phosphate gross margin of $496.9 million was 209 percent higher than in the first six months of 2007 and has already exceeded the full-year record of $432.8 million set last year. Solid fertilizers generated $191.7 million in the quarter, almost quadruple the $51.4 million of the second quarter of 2007. Liquid fertilizers generated $54.9 million, feed supplements contributed $70.7 million and industrial products added $19.8 million.
Strong global demand and higher input costs contributed to an increase in solid fertilizer realized prices to $961 per tonne in the second quarter, 145 percent above the same quarter last year and 46 percent higher than in the trailing quarter. Liquid fertilizer prices rose 166 percent quarter over quarter, largely the result of a PhosChem contract with India signed at $1,985 per phosphoric acid (P(2)O(5)) tonne for selected second-quarter shipments versus $566 per P(2)O(5) tonne under the previous contract. North American liquid prices did not yet fully reflect the rising value of P(2)O(5), as these sales are primarily contracted on a fertilizer-year basis. Feed prices were up 146 percent quarter over quarter following $250 per-short-ton increases on each of April 1 and May 1. Realized prices for industrial products, which have several contracts with pricing that will not reset until early 2009, rose 71 percent from last year's second quarter.
Strong offshore demand raised solid fertilizer volumes by 6 percent from the second quarter of 2007 and 38 percent from this year's first quarter. This demand was driven by India, which increased its DAP purchases from PhosChem by 225 percent, or almost 500,000 tonnes, from last year's second quarter. Our share of this increase more than offset a 57,000 tonne decline in our North American volumes because of the delayed spring season. Despite weather conditions, liquid fertilizer volumes rose 3 percent from the second quarter of 2007. Feed phosphate sales volumes were down 10 percent quarter over quarter due primarily to current weakness in the US beef, pork and poultry industries, while industrial sales volumes were 11 percent lower after a scheduled plant turnaround and our decision to divert more P(2)O(5) to higher-margin liquid products.
Phosphate cost of sales was negatively impacted by sulfur, which rose 311 percent compared to the same quarter in 2007 and affected all products, while ammonia was up 60 percent quarter over quarter, affecting solid fertilizer costs. Higher prices in all product categories more than offset these rising input costs.
Financial
Provincial mining and other taxes rose by 371 percent from the same quarter last year, and actual provincial mining and other taxes as a percentage of potash segment gross margin rose to 18 percent versus 13 percent in the same quarter in 2007. The significant increase in potash profit per tonne somewhat reduced the impact of the per-tonne deduction benefit for capital spending on potash projects in Saskatchewan. Capital expenditures on property, plant and equipment reached $237.9 million in the quarter, up 87 percent quarter over quarter, with the majority of this related to potash debottlenecking and expansion projects at Lanigan, Patience Lake, Cory, New Brunswick and Rocanville, and loadout expansions at Rocanville and Allan.
As previously disclosed in January 2008, the Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program that allows PotashCorp to buy back up to 15.8 million shares over the course of one year. Prevailing stock market conditions in the second quarter provided an opportunity to accelerate the buyback. We purchased 7.5 million shares for cancellation in the second quarter, in addition to the 3.4 million shares repurchased in the first quarter. By the end of the second quarter, we had purchased approximately 10.9 million shares under the repurchase program at a cost of approximately $2 billion. We temporarily increased available and outstanding borrowings under our short-term credit facilities to accommodate accelerated buying in the second quarter.
Outlook
We believe the recent attention to issues of food production and food security is a necessary and positive development, as those issues are a long-term reality underpinning growth in the fertilizer industry. Global population continues to rise by an estimated 77 million people per year, with the largest portion of that growth occurring in countries with increasing economic strength such as China and India. Improving diets, specifically adding more protein from animal sources, is a priority in these regions and is putting considerable pressure on global grain supply.
The world's farmers must produce record volumes of grain and oilseeds every year just to meet the growing need for food, animal feed, fiber and fuel. This does not even begin to address the issue of restoring severely depleted global grain inventories, now down to less than two months of supply. That presents farmers with a significant challenge - one that becomes greater as population covers a larger portion of the world's agricultural spaces, leaving less land for food production.
Producing record crops globally year after year is difficult and unpredictable for many reasons, particularly the weather. Due to cool wet weather, more than half of the US corn crop was seeded after May 10th this year -much later than usual - which could reduce crop production. Flooding in the Midwest further impacted production potential and total harvested acreage. The result is higher corn prices, signaling farmers to plant a very large corn crop in 2009. The potential for higher corn plantings has increased competition for acres from other crops, such as soybeans, and has raised futures prices for those crops.
These conditions, in turn, underpin demand for fertilizers, which are essential to maximize the quality and quantity of crop yields. Research has established that without fertilizer, at least 40 percent of the world's annual crop production would be lost. If nutrients in the soil are not replaced following harvest, future production suffers. Thus, the world's ability to produce more grain is tied directly to best farming practices, which include appropriate application of fertilizer, especially in developing regions that continue to under-apply.
The evidence about the financial benefits of proper fertilizer application is powerful. Sensitivity analyses estimate that an average US farmer planting fertilizer-intensive corn - with short ton costs of $1,000 for potash, $1,200 for DAP and $1,000 for urea - and receiving farmgate corn prices of $5.50 per bushel would generate a return of approximately $435 per acre over and above variable costs. This is nearly four times the estimated per-acre returns of US farmers in 2005, the year before crop prices began their strong advance. Of the three nutrients, potash has the smallest per-acre impact on cost, so assuming even higher potash prices in the analysis, the farmer will still generate historically exceptional returns. Although corn futures continue to fluctuate, short-term volatility does not change the long-term equation: proper fertilizer application equals greater return. This holds true for fertilizer investment on other global crops, even at much lower crop prices than are being achieved today. Farmers understand this, which is why higher fertilizer prices have not reduced demand.
Supply and demand will continue to be the drivers of the potash business for the foreseeable future, barring an improbable collapse in crop commodity prices, as an estimated 3-4 million tonnes of annual global potash demand today remains unmet. As a result, delivered offshore spot prices have reached or exceeded $1,000 per tonne. The situation could tighten further, as China's 2008 potash imports are expected to be less than 70 percent of 2007 levels, which should significantly reduce its inventories by the end of the year. While we expect global supply to grow by about 2.5 million tonnes in 2009, with more than half of that coming from our Lanigan and Patience Lake debottlenecks, an increase in demand from China in a short potash market - even a return to its 2007 level of purchases - would leave the world facing even larger potash shortages. None of the buyers in other major potash-consuming markets - including North America, Brazil, India and Southeast Asia - are expected to reduce consumption at a time of tight food supply and high crop prices.
The world's soils will be increasingly deficient in potassium if the unmet demand continues to grow. This will reduce future yield potential, an untenable situation that makes PotashCorp's ongoing capacity expansion program essential to filling the large potash supply/demand gap. On July 17, we announced plans to invest a further $1.6 billion to add a combined 2.7 million tonnes of operational capacity at Allan, Cory and Rocanville. This follows previously completed capacity expansion initiatives at Rocanville (2005), Allan and Esterhazy (2007) and Lanigan (2008), as well as in-progress projects scheduled for completion at Patience Lake (2008), Cory (2010), New Brunswick (2011) and Rocanville (2012). In total, we expect to raise our operational capacity by almost 8 million tonnes between now and the end of 2012. Developing potash capacity is a long-term initiative and requires significant foresight, expertise and understanding of global demand patterns. Just as previous projects announced as long ago as 2003 are today providing increased volumes for our customers and record returns for our company, we anticipate that our projects currently underway will be needed to meet growing global demand. When they come online over the next five years, we expect them to continue generating strong returns for PotashCorp. If demand for any reason is less than expected, we plan to match our production to meet market demand to minimize downside risk, as we have done for the past 21 years.
For the remainder of this year, both PotashCorp and Canpotex are in a sold-out volume position and will continue to ship to North American and offshore customers on an allocation basis. We recently announced a $250-per-short-ton price increase in the North American market effective September 1 through November 30, while Canpotex announced that delivered prices to Brazil and Southeast Asia are now $1,000 per tonne for standard product and $1,025 for granular product. We expect to realize these price increases in the fourth quarter. As a result, we are now forecasting 2008 potash gross margin more than 300 percent higher than that achieved in 2007.
In nitrogen and phosphate, a strong fall season in the US appears likely, driven by the prospect of large 2009 corn plantings and farmers' strong desire to prepare in advance after a difficult wet 2008 spring. High costs for sulfur and phosphate rock are unlikely to abate, and industry consultants expect that contracts for Moroccan rock could reach $450-$500 per tonne in the third quarter. The impact of reduced urea and DAP exports from China is expected to become clearer, with consultants' reports suggesting the 135 percent tax on phosphate exports could be extended through at least the end of 2008. Under these conditions, delivered solid phosphate fertilizer prices to offshore markets could rise in the fourth quarter beyond the current $1,270 per tonne. Urea could be sustained at current high levels for the remainder of 2008 and ammonia is likely to play catch-up and climb substantially in the third quarter. In liquid phosphate, our North American fertilizer-year-based contracts that begin in July will carry realized prices more than 80 percent higher than those achieved in the second quarter, while industrial prices established under longer-term customer contracts will rise slowly through 2008 and should see substantial catch-up in early 2009. As a result, our nitrogen and phosphate gross margins are now forecast to exceed 2007 levels by more than 85 percent and 200 percent, respectively.
Capital expenditures, excluding capitalized interest, are expected to be approximately $1.4 billion for 2008, of which $270 million will relate to sustaining capital. We estimate our consolidated effective income tax rate to be 29 percent in 2008, but it could fall within a range of 28-30 percent, with a current/future split of 90/10. Due to higher potash prices and margins, provincial mining taxes are forecast to be 16.5 percent of total potash gross margin for the year, but could fall within a range of 15-18 percent depending on price realizations, Canadian/US exchange rate and the timing and amount of capital spending on potash projects in Saskatchewan.
With higher expected overall gross margin, which will be partially offset by increased royalties, provincial mining and corporate income taxes, and assuming parity between the Canadian and US dollar, PotashCorp is raising full-year net income guidance from $9.50-$10.50 per share to $12.00-$13.00 per share. We expect third-quarter net income to be in the range of $3.25-$3.75 per share. In the current trading range of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar, each one-cent change in the Canadian dollar typically impacts our foreign exchange line by approximately $10.0 million, or $0.02 per share on an after-tax basis, and is primarily a non-cash item.
Conclusion
"The current operating environment provides an opportunity to deliver record results, but more importantly gives us the ability to reinvest our strong cash flow for sustainable growth in the future," said Doyle. "Food production and fertilizer demand are not quarter-to-quarter issues. They are long-term necessities tied to human development which are likely to intensify over time. As we have in the past, we will keep our focus on the future and execute strategies designed to generate the greatest long-term value and opportunity for all our stakeholders, including our customers, investors and employees."
Notes ----- 1. All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share. 2. See reconciliation and description of non-GAAP measures in the attached section titled "Selected Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Reconciliations."
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. is the world's largest fertilizer enterprise producing the three primary plant nutrients and a leading supplier to three distinct market categories: agriculture, with the largest capacity in the world in potash, second largest in nitrogen and third largest in phosphate; animal nutrition, with the world's largest capacity in phosphate feed ingredients; and industrial chemicals, as the largest global producer of industrial nitrogen products and the world's largest capacity for production of purified industrial phosphoric acid.
This release contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective income tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in supply and demand in fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; timing and amount of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company's investments; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflow; strikes and other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns including the possibility of work stoppages at our Allan, Cory and Patience Lake facilities; changes in and the effects of, government policy and regulations; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 under captions "Forward-Looking Statements" and "Item 1A - Risk Factors" and in our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
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