Hollywood hat Interesse am Neuen Markt!!!!!!!!!

die zur Zeit immer wieder angekündigten Versprechen auf eine Rallye (Sommer-, Herbst-,
Jahresend-) mit Vorsicht genießen. Die Heftigkeit der Reaktion nach solchen Ertrags-
warnungen zeigt, dass der Markt hoch bewertet und nervös ist. Durch einen von der
Washington Post berichteten Rechenfehler (!) müssen auch die amerikanischen Inflations-
zahlen nach oben korrigiert werden, was ein weiteres Eingreifen der US-Notenbank in
diesem Jahr wieder wahrscheinlicher macht.

Das "Nein" zu Euro aus Dänemark stärkt nicht gerade das Vertrauen in die gemeinsame
Währung. Sollten Briten und Schweden sich dieser Meinung anschließen, wird die EZB
ihre Bemühungen um Vertrauensgewinn verstärken müssen. Kurzfristig sieht es nicht
nach einer Rallye aus.

Apropos, wie geht es eigentlich Manfred Krug ?

Department said sales of new homes fell 3 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 893,000 units.

Separately, the Conference Board in New York said its index of leading indicators -- designed to predict economic activity
three to six months down the road -- weakened for a second straight month in August, implying a slowdown was in place.

Interest rates have been on hold since May, when the key federal funds rate, for overnight loans between banks, was pushed
up a half percentage point to 6.5 percent and the more symbolic discount rate on Fed loans to banks went to 6.0.

That was the sixth in a series of U.S. rate rises initiated in mid-1999. FOMC members decided to keep rates steady at two
subsequent sessions in June and August as they assessed the impact of costlier credit on the economy.

MANUFACTURING SHRINKS

There was more evidence of economic cooling on Monday in a widely watched monthly report from the National Association
of Purchasing Management, which showed the manufacturing sector contracted for a second straight month in September.

New orders dropped in September and prices were up, which the association blamed on costlier energy.

``The Federal Reserve is probably pleased that the economy continues to show signs of moderating,'' said economist Lynn
Reaser of Bank of America Capital Management Inc. in St. Louis, Missouri. ``The purchasing managers report confirms a
much more subdued pace and inflation still seems to be in check.''

Reaser said there was a possibility the Fed would change its warning that the balance of risks remains weighted toward higher
inflation, which is generally taken as a signal that the next move was more likely to be a rate increase than a cut.

But she added that she doubted that would happen, primarily because doing so now might trigger an over-reaction in stock
markets and add greater spending stimulus than the Fed wants.

In addition, the world's largest economy still packs plenty of punch as shown by higher August orders for costly durable goods,
robust sales of previously owned homes and high levels of consumer confidence and spending.

ELECTION ADDS INCENTIVE

Tuesday's meeting is the final FOMC gathering before the Nov. 7 presidential election, an added incentive for the central bank
to stay on the sidelines and so forestall any challenge to its nonpolitical status. But analysts emphasized that politics alone would
not be a deciding factor.

``I have no doubt that if there was a compelling surge in inflation pressures they'd tighten, but there's not, so they'd just as soon
not become part of the political process,'' said David Orr of First Union Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Orr expects no rate change and a warning about inflation, if only to show the Fed remains wary about oil. ``Policymakers
wouldn't want to send a message that the spike in energy prices isn't of concern. That wouldn't be smart,'' he said.

Three past energy price shocks -- in 1973, 1979 and 1990 -- led to recessions.

Both Orr and Reaser noted that financial markets were anticipating that the U.S. central bank is heading toward a change in its
interest-rate policy later this year or early next year. Falling yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes, now under 6 percent,
indicate a belief that the Fed is headed toward lower rates instead of more hikes, they said.

Gruß  Dampf

ein sehr Interessanter Bericht aber schon längst überholt!
Wir könnten ja wetten!!!!???????

New  Letter

Was heißt hier überholt? Der Bericht war von gestern Nachmittag.

Die FED hat ja nun erneut vor der Inflationsgefahr, insbesondere durch den Ölpreis, gewarnt - was dann u.a. auch zu dem Kurssturz der NASDAQ geführt hat - weil es für viele doch etwas überraschend kam.

Aber bei der Wette bin ich trotzdem dabei - ich gehe davon aus, dass dieses Jahr in den USA keine Zinserhöhung mehr beschlossen wird, basta!

Gruß Dampf

In den USA kommt es zumindest vor den Wahlen nicht mehr zu Zinserhöhungen. In Euroland hängt es davon ab, ob es unter der Decke Vereinbarungen gegeben hat, bevor es zur großen Intervention der Notenbanken kam. Mindestens auf ein erneutes Abrutschen des Euro kommt die Zinserhöhung.

Wie machen wir das mit dem Wetteinsatz??????

Bundesaufsichtsamtimator, ist besimmt spannend..

????????  Verstehe ich jetzt aber nicht  ?????????????