Global: The Trade Wildcard - S. Roach
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
Auszug:
And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America’s current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America’s current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world’s surplus saving.
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On a broad trade-weighted basis, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is down only about 11% from its early 2002 peak. That’s nothing for a US economy with a current account deficit of 5.7% and rising. By contrast, the same broad dollar index fell 28% in the second half the 1980s when America’s current account gap peaked at 3.4%. Today’s US economy has about twice the current account problem it had back then but has experienced only about one-third the dollar depreciation. For that simple reason alone, I would argue that the dollar adjustment has been unusually constrained.
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There is tragic irony in all this. In large part, today’s US trade deficits are made in Washington -- not Beijing. Lacking in private saving, outsize US budget deficits are leading to ever-widening current-account and trade deficits.
Ein weiterer von Geist sprühender Bericht von Mr. Roach, der die Überbewertung von dem US-$ zum Thema hat.
hxxp://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html
Auszug:
And it must run massive current-account and trade deficits in order to attract that capital -- inflows that are now up to $2.6 billion per business day as America’s current account deficit ballooned to 5.7% of GDP in mid-2004. At this rate, America’s current account deficit now absorbs more than 80% of the world’s surplus saving.
....................
On a broad trade-weighted basis, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is down only about 11% from its early 2002 peak. That’s nothing for a US economy with a current account deficit of 5.7% and rising. By contrast, the same broad dollar index fell 28% in the second half the 1980s when America’s current account gap peaked at 3.4%. Today’s US economy has about twice the current account problem it had back then but has experienced only about one-third the dollar depreciation. For that simple reason alone, I would argue that the dollar adjustment has been unusually constrained.
..................
There is tragic irony in all this. In large part, today’s US trade deficits are made in Washington -- not Beijing. Lacking in private saving, outsize US budget deficits are leading to ever-widening current-account and trade deficits.
Ein weiterer von Geist sprühender Bericht von Mr. Roach, der die Überbewertung von dem US-$ zum Thema hat.
