Global growth to slow next year
hxxp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-10/05/content_379810.htm
The fastest global economic growth in three decades will slow next year, complicating efforts by the Group of Seven industrial nations to pare budget deficits and unemployment.
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Morgan Stanley says there is a 40 per cent chance of a worldwide recession next year.
"The economy is keeling over," billionaire financier George Soros said in an interview last week. "The markets are reacting to rather dim economic prospects."
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An economic slowdown of any size may mean fewer jobs and tax revenues, with European unemployment already at a 4 1/2 year high of 9 per cent, Japan still battling deflation and the US facing a record budget deficit
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Several chief economists cut their 2005 forecasts in the past month and are less optimistic than the IMF, which on September 29 predicted growth will slow to 4.3 per cent next year from 5 per cent this year, which would be the strongest since 1973. The reduced forecasts for 2005 include 3.9 per cent from Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley in New York and Jim O'Neill at Goldman Sachs in London, and 3.4 per cent from Norbert Walter at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt.
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Any cooling may undermine stock prices and boost bonds, said O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs.
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"Deceleration has already started and a further slowdown is definitely in the cards," said Kathleen Stephansen, director of economic research at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
Gemäß von den Experten wird das Wachstum bei dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den USA in dem 3. Quartal nur noch 4 - 4 1/2% betragen - hedonistisch angepaßt natürlich.
In der Zwischenzeit nun zurück in die Realität:
- die Arbeitslosigkeit steigt
- die vorher gesagten Gewinne von den Unternehmen für das 1. Halbjahr im Jahr 2005 werden einstellig ausfallen. Das aktuelle P/E von dem S&P 500 beträgt aber 20,17. Dieses bedeutet, das er mehr als überbewertet (Overvalue = P/E = 20) ist.
Russell sees is a big, ugly bear. "I'm afraid we are coming into one of the worst bear markets in history," he says. Bear markets typically end with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 selling for five to 10 times earnings (und nicht mehr als 20 times earning!), while yielding 5% to 6%. Russell doesn't expect this beast to be much different. "Let's say this bear market ends at eight times S&P earnings (dieses würde einen Verlust von aktuell über 60% bedeuten!)," he says. "Even if earnings hold at the current level -- which is extremely doubtful -- the S&P could lose two-thirds of its value."
Die USA benötigen US-$ 1 - 3 Milliarden täglich, um das Budget- und das Trade Defizit aus zu gleichen und um das aktuelle Niveau zu behaupten.
Die Zinsen befinden sich schon auf einem Notlagenniveau.
Das Öl wird in den nächsten Monaten sehr viel höher nach oben steigen.
Ein hohes Risiko von einem Terroranschlag in den USA, noch vor der US-Wahl.
Das Gold ist die ultimative Währung!
hxxp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-10/05/content_379810.htm
The fastest global economic growth in three decades will slow next year, complicating efforts by the Group of Seven industrial nations to pare budget deficits and unemployment.
..................
Morgan Stanley says there is a 40 per cent chance of a worldwide recession next year.
"The economy is keeling over," billionaire financier George Soros said in an interview last week. "The markets are reacting to rather dim economic prospects."
................
An economic slowdown of any size may mean fewer jobs and tax revenues, with European unemployment already at a 4 1/2 year high of 9 per cent, Japan still battling deflation and the US facing a record budget deficit
....................
Several chief economists cut their 2005 forecasts in the past month and are less optimistic than the IMF, which on September 29 predicted growth will slow to 4.3 per cent next year from 5 per cent this year, which would be the strongest since 1973. The reduced forecasts for 2005 include 3.9 per cent from Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley in New York and Jim O'Neill at Goldman Sachs in London, and 3.4 per cent from Norbert Walter at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt.
..................
Any cooling may undermine stock prices and boost bonds, said O'Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs.
...............
"Deceleration has already started and a further slowdown is definitely in the cards," said Kathleen Stephansen, director of economic research at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
Gemäß von den Experten wird das Wachstum bei dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den USA in dem 3. Quartal nur noch 4 - 4 1/2% betragen - hedonistisch angepaßt natürlich.
In der Zwischenzeit nun zurück in die Realität:
- die Arbeitslosigkeit steigt
- die vorher gesagten Gewinne von den Unternehmen für das 1. Halbjahr im Jahr 2005 werden einstellig ausfallen. Das aktuelle P/E von dem S&P 500 beträgt aber 20,17. Dieses bedeutet, das er mehr als überbewertet (Overvalue = P/E = 20) ist.
Russell sees is a big, ugly bear. "I'm afraid we are coming into one of the worst bear markets in history," he says. Bear markets typically end with the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 selling for five to 10 times earnings (und nicht mehr als 20 times earning!), while yielding 5% to 6%. Russell doesn't expect this beast to be much different. "Let's say this bear market ends at eight times S&P earnings (dieses würde einen Verlust von aktuell über 60% bedeuten!)," he says. "Even if earnings hold at the current level -- which is extremely doubtful -- the S&P could lose two-thirds of its value."
Die USA benötigen US-$ 1 - 3 Milliarden täglich, um das Budget- und das Trade Defizit aus zu gleichen und um das aktuelle Niveau zu behaupten.
Die Zinsen befinden sich schon auf einem Notlagenniveau.
Das Öl wird in den nächsten Monaten sehr viel höher nach oben steigen.
Ein hohes Risiko von einem Terroranschlag in den USA, noch vor der US-Wahl.
Das Gold ist die ultimative Währung!
