| Updated 4/7 for Thursday's market. |  | ||||||||||||||||
Volatile SessionDow trades in volatile fashion, ends day lower.From prior commentary, "...we will likely see further upside movement within the trend until the lower trend line is crossed. A downside break of the line at 10,500 will likely make for an overdue retracement..." The Dow pulled back sharply off yesterday's highs this morning, which set the stage for a weakened session. The index eventually broke the clear lower trend line to the downside at 10,500, which led to an even further decline, as seen in the 60 Minute Chart. However, a late-day upsurge and subsequent decline added to the day's volatility, which could be shifting the Dow into slightly bearish territory. Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows that the Dow looks to be forming a continuation pattern after breaking the trend line to the downside. Such activity typically implies weakness to come. Therefore, we will watch 10,450 closely tomorrow, as a break here could make for the sharpest decline yet. Otherwise, an upside break through 10,530 will spark a retest of recent highs. Watch 10,450 down, and 10,530 up tomorrow. Short Term Dow Short term, the Dow has formed a tight range at the lows of the 1 Minute Chart from 10,470 to 10,490. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning. Medium Term Dow In the medium term, we entered the market Short this morning at 10,500, but stopped out of the trade at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. We will watch 10,450 down, and 10,530 up tomorrow; using 20 point stops. NASDAQ & S&P The NASDAQ and S&P each traded the day in swings, but ended the session lower. The indexes have formed clear lower boundaries to watch for tomorrow's market, as these could lead to a steep decline. * Summary The Dow opened the session lower this morning and held on to the loss despite a large upmove late in the day. The index is looking more and more vulnerable at this point, as it now looks to be forming a continuation pattern below today's broken trend line. A break below 10,450 will make for another push lower, while an upside move through 10,530 will lead to a move toward resistance. Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading.. Ed Downs with assistance from.. ** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit SignalWatch.com and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team _________________________ |
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