Der USA Bären-Thread

Wall Street Journal

Apartment Glut Expands

Vacancy Rate Rises to 7.8% as Unemployment Dents Demand; Monthly Rents Slip

By NICK TIMIRAOS

 

Apartment vacancies hit their highest point since 1986, surging in cities from Raleigh, N.C., to Tacoma, Wash., as rising unemployment continued to chip away at demand during the traditionally strong summer rental months.

 

 

Meanwhile, the air leaving the market is driving rents down, most sharply in markets that had been chugging along until a year ago, when unemployment accelerated, including Tacoma; San Jose, Calif.; and Orange County, Calif.

In New York, Jennifer Hyman rented a one-bedroom apartment in July at a monthly rate of $1,950 -- down from $2,450 for the previous tenant -- when she returned to the city after graduating from Harvard Business School. Her first month's rent was free -- and her landlord painted the apartment, scrubbed the floors and added window coverings.

"The experience was night-and-day different from before," said Ms. Hyman, who had rented other Manhattan apartments between 2002 and 2007, each time paying a brokers' fee and feeling pressured to sign a lease the minute she found an apartment. Now, she says, "Renters are the ones with the power."

Driving the change is the troubled employment market, which is closely tied to rentals. With unemployment at 9.8% -- a 26-year high -- more would-be renters are doubling up or moving in with family and friends during periods of job loss. Landlords have been particularly battered because unemployment has been higher among workers under 35 years old, who are more likely to rent. Nationally, effective rents have fallen by 2.7% over the past year, to around $972.

"When job losses stop, rents will firm and occupancies will firm," said Richard Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust, a Houston-based real-estate company.

The second and third quarters typically are the strongest periods for rental landlords because they are popular times for people to move. But this year, "vacancies just continued rising," said Victor Calanog, director of research for Reis.

During the third quarter, vacancies increased in 42 markets, improved in 26 markets and remained unchanged in 11 markets. Omaha, Neb., saw the largest rise in vacancies, with the rate rising 1.1 percentage points to 7.4%. Other big rises were seen in Memphis, Tenn., Indianapolis, Raleigh and Tacoma.

 

               

 

The deteriorating rental market comes amid some signs of stabilization in the housing sales market. An $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers and investor demand helped to boost sales of low- and moderately priced homes this summer. But some analysts warn demand could fall with the expiration of the tax credit and supply could increase with more foreclosed homes hitting the market.

While a housing recovery could lead the best quality renters to move out and purchase homes, the move-out rate isn't expected to surpass levels seen during the housing boom earlier this decade. Mortgage credit standards have tightened considerably since then, which should keep more renters in place.

Apartment owners ultimately could gain from the housing bust because the U.S. home-ownership rate has fallen as foreclosures rise. But the housing bust has also flooded some of the most overbuilt housing markets with new apartment inventory as developers have converted unsold condominium developments into rentals.

Reis projects that the vacancy rate will peak at well above 8% in mid-2010.

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

 

Economic stimulus has been a friend to the stock market this year, but investors are worried that the two may be parting ways in the coming months.

 

Wall Street has surfed along on a six-month wave of support generated in part on $787 billion in government stimulus that has complemented highly accommodative fiscal policy at the Federal Reserve.

But central banks both in the US and globally have indicated the party will be coming to an end soon. The Fed this month is ending its aggressive buying of Treasurys and many analysts believe that while rate increases aren't likely in the immediate term, the central bank will have to take some action in the coming months to curtail inflation.

Economist Nouriel Roubini referred to it this week as the "wall of liquidity" which could end up tumbling down on Wall Street.

 

"His wall of liquidity is what helped stocks. Money has to go somewhere, and many perceived that stocks had hit a ridiculous low," says Peter J. Tanous, president and director of Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C.

But now that the stock market has jumped 50 percent off its March lows, market pros are wondering what will propel it higher.

A need to curtail inflation, and its accompanying policy responses, could provide a substantial obstacle if the Fed's actions get ahead of the market's needs.

"The tightening effect that everyone is looking for six months down the road will be a reaction to the inflationary pressures that are caused by the massive deficits and the massive spending. It takes time for all the money to make its way through the economy and start affecting prices," Tanous says.

"Once it happens, the Fed has an itchy trigger finger to cut it off at the pass very quickly. Everyone is thinking they want to get ahead of the problem, not follow it."

Indeed, inflationary fears raised their head Monday in unexpected fashion.

 

A $7 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities fetched a high yield of 1.51 percent. More remarkable, though, was the demand for the TIPS notes, reflected in what is known as the bid-to-cover ratio.

The ratio came in at 3.12, meaning investors bid $3.12 for every $1 auction off, nearly 50 percent higher than the $2.10 average of the last five auctions of similar securities.

Investor reaction was curious considering the cold water that policy makers have been pouring on inflation fears lately. The reaction could indicate that inflation worries are bigger in the marketplace than are being acknowledged.

"What we've done here is built up another huge bubble, and the bubble specifically is the US debt market," says Michael Pento, chief economist at Global Delta Advisors. "When that pops—and it will, make no mistake—there will be nobody left to rescue us. We've set ourselves up for a much worse scenario."

Pento puts a different spin on the stimulus story, contending that injecting boatloads of stimulus that was generated through debt has only made matters worse. The stimulus shouldn't have been used, he says, and cutting it off now is too little, too late.

 

"We've gone miles across the rubicon," he says. "There's no V-shaped rosy scenario for what we are in. We're so far into debt and we've made so many promises we can't keep. We can either have a very serious depression or get on with the business of reinflating the bubble and trying to hyperinflate our way out of this. I can guarantee neither will have a happy ending."

To be sure, the scenario all depends on action at the central bank, which can be unpredictable when it is looking to change monetary course.

Fed Governor Kevin Warsh sent ripples of fear through the market last week when he wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal saying that "prudent risk management indicates that policy likely will need to begin normalization before it is obvious that it is necessary, possibly with greater force than is customary..."

The remarks were interpreted as meaning the Fed could begin to take steps soon to ratchet down easy-money policies, and investors reacted by sending stocks lower. Moreover, the incident may have provided a preview of market reaction to upcoming Fed moves.

 

"Reaction from the market had to do with the fact that investors don't believe that the economy is ready for the Fed to exit," says Quincy Krosby, general market strategist at Prudential Financial. "When investors believe it is time for the Fed to start tightening and changing the language in addition to the other programs, (the Fed) will exit."

But an early exit, as shown by the market's reaction to Warsh's comments, could rattle the markets and, as Roubini stated, take away the liquidity on which the market has built its stunning rally from the brink of another Great Depression.

At the same time, rumbles continue out of Washington that there could yet be another stimulus to come along, which could change everything.

"There's no way that Democrats want to go into election season in 2010 with a 10-plus percentage point unemployment rate, or with the housing market that's not seeing a sustained recovery," Krosby says. "You're going to see more stimulus come into the system."

But until policymakers' moves become clearer, investors are likely to continue to flock to the safety of Treasurys and corporate bonds, as well as the inflation-indexed notes that sold off so robustly on Monday.

Lynx's Tanous points out that his firm's Real Asset Fund, which seeks to provide protection against inflation, was up 5 percent in September.

"That wall ... to a degree has been somewhat of an artificial boost in that it's not necessarily part of a fundamental recovery in the companies themselves that have seen their stock prices go up," says Owen Malcolm, chief operating officer at Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "Fundamentally we just don't see where all the optimism is coming from."

seit dem märztief hat der Euro von 1,25 auf 1,47 zugelegt

V für Asien

U für die USA

L für Europa

so sieht es die Glaskugel von WellsFargo:
“The economic [recovery] shape is more of a letter 'V' in Asia, 'L' in Europe and 'U' in the U.S,” McManus told CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33182405

Na ja wer dem Glauben mag soll es tun.

Permanent

Veröffentlichung der Zahlen zur britischen Industrieproduktion ("Index of Production", Industrial Output) für August 2009
aktuell:
Im August war die Produktion zum Vormonat um 2,5 % gefallen nach +0,5 %. Die Produktion im verarbeitenden Gewerbe sank in gleicher Zeit um 1,9 %, nach +0,7 % zuvor.

http://www.ariva.de/...09_DAX_Punkten_t283343?pnr=6642867#jump6642867

Viel schneller als gedacht. Mit einem derartigen Anstieg hatte ich nicht gerechnet.

Aber wie heißt es so schön:
Erstens kommt es anders und zweitens als man denkt.

Permanent

NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - Der US-amerikanische Aktienmarkt hat am Dienstag an seine Anfang der Woche begonnene Aufwärtsbewegung angeknüpft und wiederum Gewinne verzeichnet. Börsianer begründeten dies mit neuen Hoffnungen auf eine wirtschaftliche Erholung, nachdem die australische Zentralbank ihren Leitzins zum ersten Mal seit März 2008 erhöht hatte.

...gabs noch meiner Erinnerung das letzte mal, als im Oktober 2007 der Markt zum Leidwesen aller Bären, die damals z.T. schon seit März immer wieder short sind nochmal ohne Fundamentals auf ein neues ATH geklettert ist...
Charttechnisch sind wir damit jetzt ja wieder long oder Bullenfalle.

"Zinserhöhungensenkungen erfreuen die Anleger"

Das Ganze hatte ja länger angedauert als gedacht...

Y

Entweder rauf oder runter ;-))

So, das ist ein "witziges" Posting, Posting #50213 war nicht "witzig", doch das sehen investierte Bären sowieso am Depot. ;-))

Interessanter Aspekt.

also mir ist nicht mehr klar, welche bzw. wie die Rakete hier noch gezündet wird: Aufgrund der Zinserhöhung infolge von wirtschaftlicher Erholung  - und das noch in Australien, steigen die Aktienkurse?  

Plausibler scheint mir da die Begründung, dass es die Vorfreude auf die kommende Quartalssaison ist. Bei diesem Aufwärtstempo, Alcoa erneut mit 5% im Plus, müssen die Unternehmen ihren A... richtig breit machen.

Wenn Firmen enttäuschen fallen wir von höher und stehen nach der Berichtssaison wie vorher. Würden die Märkte jetzt warten könnte es passieren das wir hinterher niedriger stehen.

den Nachrichten sondern machen sie. Das Ergebnis sieht bei dem aktuellen Spiel immer hirnrissiger aus. Überraschend ist für mich die Entwicklung diese Woche nicht. Will man andere reinlegen war das bisher eine gewinnbringende Strategie. Das Spielchen seit März hat offensichtlich noch nicht geendet. Zwischendrin braucht es immer mal kleine Korrekturen damit es glaubwürdiger bleibt. Umso überraschender wird plötzlich ein Absturz entstehen. Aber bloß wann?

Ich war schon mit Shorts am Rand des Haifischbeckens... aber ich habs im Gefühl und so wie es ausschaut werden wir dieses Jahr wohl nochmal ein Jahreshoch unter geringen Umsätzen generieren. Es wird genauso unberechtigt sein wie das ATH Ende 2007.

Das passt auch ganz gut zu der bevorstehenden Q-Zahl-Saison.
Also meine Short-Pläne sind erstmal auf Eis...

...nun ja, diese Zahl interessiert in England wirklich keinen mehr, da haben die verbliebenen 20 Arbeitsplätze im produzierendem Gewerbe wohl eine Raucherpause zuviel gemacht, England ist eine Volkswirtschaft so ziemlich völlig deindustrialisiert... Der FTSE würde wahrscheinlich in den Keller fallen, wenn der Finanzsektor solche Zahlen präsentiert hätte... ...ich weiß, alles konjunktiv und das Leben findet bekanntermassen nicht im Konjunktiv statt...

nochmals angeschoben werden:

Mehr Geld für weniger Arbeitslose

Von Moritz Koch, New York

Die Krise auf dem US-Arbeitsmarkt verschärft sich. Nun will die Regierung erneut Geld in die Hand nehmen - und das Konjunkturprogramm aufstocken.

Aus Sorge um die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit will die US-Regierung ihr fast 800 Milliarden Dollar umfassendes Konjunkturprogramm aufstocken. Dies bestätigte der Sprecher des Weißen Hauses, Robert Gibbs. Im Gespräch sind ein Ausbau des sozialen Netzes und Steueranreize für einstellungswillige Unternehmen.

Weiter unter www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/754/490134/text/

ein weiser Spruch von Martin Zweig, der sich wieder bewahrheitet. Vor ein paar Tagen habe ich ein Bildchen reingestellt, welches den Zusammenhang der FED zinsen und dem SP beschreibt. Wenn Geld fast umsonst ausgeschissen wird hört der Verstand auf zu denken. Die Zockerei in Aktien und Rohstoffen geht wahrscheinlich noch einige Zeit weiter. Wen interessiert denn noch, ob schon wieder eine Bank pleite ist? Und wenn schon, dann werden eben wieder einige Blätter der Klorolle abgerissen und die Welt ist wieder in Ordnung, Papier gibts noch genug und grüne Farbe auch.

der "nachlaufende Indikator" wird wohl alle Erwartungen überholen.

Übrigens Gold ist gestiegen weil die Wirtschaft sich erholt. So wird es berichtet. Inflation ist kein Thema so die Fed.

zu dem Thema "Don't fight the Fed"

Solange die Zockerbanken jeden Shit via TALF und Konsorten bei der Fed monetarisiert bekommen, kann man sich, von kleineren Tages-Trades mal abgesehen, dull & dämlich shorten. Hier werden nur die Zockerbanken gewinnen.

Wer den beigefügten Chart lesen kann, wird das auch erkennen.

Erst wenn sich hier die Winde eindeutig drehen, wenn der "Strom von Trillion of Fiatscos" versiegt, und Malko hat's mMn ebenfalls gut rübergebracht, machen Puts Sinn, vorher ist es reine Vermögensvernichtung.

warum schaffen wir die Zinsen nicht ab? Wir könnten ewiges Wachstum haben, jeder bekommt Geld ohne Zinsen zahlen zu müssen. Die Börse kann dann unendlich steigen da nur noch die Aktien Gewinne versprechen. Anlagenotstand über Jahrzente. Short werden nicht mehr angeboten weil so etwas dann niemand mehr kauft.