Diese Vorzeichen sieht Dick Arms, der "Erfinder" des bekannten ARMS-Index (aka TRIN).
Technical Analysis
Market in a Consolidation
By Dick Arms
Street.com Contributor
4/17/2009 8:27 AM EDT
Once again, the 8000 level in the Dow is emerging as an attractor. We saw this before in January, when the markets seemed to be stalled, were moving sideways in a narrow trading range and reflected extreme indecision. It was apparent then, and it becomes apparent here, that the move out of the consolidation is likely to lead to a large advance or decline.
That consolidation was resolved to the downside, and it came after the Arms Index went to an extreme in the overbought direction. It came after the sideways move was about four weeks old. This consolidation is now about three weeks old, but again, we are seeing an overbought condition in both the five-day and 10-day moving averages of the Arms Index. We can see that on the second chart, below (unten angehängt, A.L.)
That suggests that the breakout of the consolidation is going to be downward and that we may be getting quite close to a new slide. Yesterday's late-session advance took us right up to the top of that consolidation, but not decisively through it. But it also pushed the Arms Index to even more overbought levels.
A pullback here would not be a surprise and would be helpful in widening the base, if it turned out to be a successful test of the March low. But for now I would suggest remaining cautious, with close stops on long positions. In that way, if the rally continues further, the additional gains are realized.
Fazit: Longs sollten aufpassen. Dick Arms hat einen guten "track record" - sonst wäre der ARMS-Index nicht so bekannt geworden.