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Wall Street im Banne der Finanz-Konzerne

4
14.09.08 21:26
Wall Street im Banne der Finanz-Konzerne

Schicksal von Lehman Brothers, AIG und Washington Mutual wird das der US-Börsen bestimmen. Zudem hängt es davon ab, wie Goldman Sachs und Morgan Stanley unterwegs sind.

Eines ist schon vor dem Läuten der Glocke an der Wall Street diesen Montag gewiss: Das wird eine aufregende und spannende Woche. Denn die Finanzkrise hat die US-Börsen erneut fest im Griff. Abgesehen von den Turbulenzen rund um Lehman Brothers, sorgen auch andere große Finanz-Konzerne für Druck auf den amerikanischen Aktienmarkt.

Gleich am Montag könnte etwa der Versicherungsriese AIG den Verkauf von Geschäften sowie weitere Maßnahmen gegen die Schieflage ankündigen. Die Assekuranz hat im Zuge der Krise in den vergangenen drei Quartalen aufgrund von Abschreibungen Verluste von mehr als 18 Milliarden US-Dollar angehäuft. Die sich zuletzt wieder zuspitzende Krise bei AIG hat jedenfalls den Aktienkurs in der Vorwoche um mehr als 45 Prozent einbrechen lassen.

Im Fokus wird aber auch die größte US-Sparkasse Washington Mutual (WaMu) stehen. Ihre Aktie verlor in der Vorwoche mit 36,07 Prozent ebenfalls massiv. Aufgrund des Verfalls sind erneut Übernahmegerüchte am Markt aufgekommen. Als einer der Interessenten gilt der Finanzmulti JP Morgan Chase, der vor einigen Monaten bei WaMu bereits mit einem Offert abgeblitzt war, der aber auch die vor dem Zusammenbruch stehende Investmentbank Bear Stearns übernommen hat.

Apropos Investmentbanken: Die stehen auch aus einem weiteren Grund im Zentrum des Interesses. Denn sowohl Goldman Sachs als auch Morgan Stanley werden ihre Ergebnisse für das dritte Quartal bekannt geben. Als erstes offenbart Goldman seine Zahlen am Dienstag. Analysten erwarten einen Rückgang beim Gewinn je Aktie um 71,65 Prozent auf 1,738 Dollar. Bei Morgan Stanley (am Mittwoch) wird mit einem Minus von 43,70 Prozent auf einen Gewinn je Anteilsschein von 0,777 Dollar gerechnet.

Am Dienstag wird aber nicht nur Goldman die Börsianer befassen. Denn da geht auch der Zinsentscheid der Fed über die Bühne. Es wird gerechnet, dass Fed-Boss Ben Bernanke den Satz unverändert bei 2,0 Prozent belässt. An diesem Tag wird übrigens auch die für die Entscheidung so wichtige Inflationsrate für den August bekannt gegeben. Laut den Experten von Raiffeisen Research ist ein Rückgang im Vorjahresvergleich nicht garantiert, ab September sei dann aber mit einem „drastischen Inflationsrückgang“ zu rechnen.

Zudem gibt’s am Montag Daten zur Industrieproduktion, zur Kapazitätsauslastung und den Empire State Index. Zahlen zum Immo-Sektor werden am Dienstag mit dem NAHB Housing Market Index und am Mittwoch mit den Wohnbaubeginnen und den Baugenehmigungen präsentiert. Zudem erfahren wir zu Wochenmitte mehr über dieLeistungsbilanz. Und am Donnerstag gibt’s mit dem Philadelphia Fed. Index einen weiteren Frühindikator.
www.wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/boerse/...e/index.do&_vl_pos=2.DT
Antworten
wawidu:

Unter den großen Banken

6
14.09.08 21:31
halten lediglich BAC und JPM noch die Fahne hoch. AXP, C, GS, LEH, MER, MS, WB und WM sind technisch schwach bis sehr schwach. Die Bondsversicherer dürften ihre teilweise fulminanten Korrekturen beendet haben. Bei FSF und XL blieben die Korrekturen sehr schwach, bei ABK, MBI und MTG zeigen sich erste Schwächezeichen.
Schaut euch auch mal den Chart von Countrywide Financial an. Dieser Wert ist der einzige unter den Big Three der Hypothekenbanken, der sich noch nicht im Junk-Status befindet. Nichtsdestotrotz ist auch dieser aus dem SPX verschwunden.
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Der USA Bären-Thread 186282
Antworten
Dreistein:

Wall Street Prepares for Potential Lehman Bankrupt

5
14.09.08 21:54
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street prepared for a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy after Barclays Plc said it pulled out of talks to buy the firm and the government indicated it wouldn't provide funds in a resolution.

Banks and brokers today held a session for netting derivatives transactions with Lehman, or canceling trades that offset each other, in case the New York-based firm files for bankruptcy before midnight New York time.

``The purpose of this session is to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Inc. bankruptcy filing,'' the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said in a statement today. The ISDA includes 218 banks, brokerages, insurance companies and other financial institutions from the U.S. and abroad.

The step indicates that Wall Street lacks confidence that three days of talks to find a buyer for Lehman, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will be successful. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who has led the talks with New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, was adamant two days ago against using taxpayer funds in a resolution.

The fourth-largest securities firm until the past week, Lehman has thousands of such trades in credit, equity, commodity, interest rates and currency derivatives.

``ISDA confirms a netting trading session will take place between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. New York time for over-the-counter derivatives,'' the ISDA said. ``Trades are contingent on a bankruptcy filing at or before 11:59 p.m. New York time, Sunday, Sept. 14, 2008. If there is no filing, the trades cease to exist.''

The announcement came after Barclays, the U.K.'s third- biggest bank, said it abandoned talks to buy Lehman, contending it couldn't obtain guarantees to protect against potential losses at the U.S. securities firm.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/...20601087&sid=aNMh_8NRE6QM&refer=home
Antworten
Malko07:

Es gibt nicht

13
14.09.08 21:57
unwesentliche Unterschiede zwischen der Verstaatlichung der FM's und einem potentiellem Chapter 7 bei Lehman. Bei den FM's gab es keine Kollateralschäden, bei Lehman werden sie erheblich sein. Angeblich wird schon den ganzen Tag in NY der Derivatedickicht durchsucht.

Sollte man Lehman über den Jordan lassen ist das eine starke Verunsicherung der anderen kranken Banken. Es wird hecktische Versuche geben die Kapitalbasis zu verbessern, die bei weitem nicht immer zum Erfolg führen werden. Nicht gut für die Stimmung. Die Zwangsliquidation vieler Lehman-Papiere wird die Preise versauen und zu einer neuen  Abschreibungsorgie führen. Die Nacht ist auch nicht mehr lang. Noch 4 Stunden dann öffnen die Börsen in Asien und der Dachstuhl brennt ab.
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

FNM/FRE- vs. Lehman-Pleite

12
14.09.08 22:02
"Der Markt" war bei Fannie und Freddie nicht wegen der Aktien besorgt, sondern wegen der zahlreichen Bonds. Allein China hat Anleihen der beiden FMs in Höhe von 500 Milliarden Dollar (knapp 1/3 des chin. Staatsvermögens). Die Erleichterung nach dem FNM/FRE-Bailout galt vor allem den Bonds, die durch die Staatsgarantie nun den Status von Quasi-US-Staatsanleihen erhielten. Dies sicherte, dass dem US-Hypothekenmarkt auch weiterhin frisches Kapital aus Europa sowie dem mittleren und fernen Osten zuströmen kann. Ohne die Staatsgarantie hätten die FMs keine neuen Bonds mehr emittieren können (bzw. es hätten sich keine Käufer mehr dafür gefunden). Dann wäre der Zustrom frischen Kapitals in die USA und insbesondere in den US-Hypothekenmarkt eingebrochen - und die Banken/Broker sowie die US-Wirtschaft wären ein Schwarzes Loch gestürzt.

Fannie und Freddie sind sozusagen die Nabelschnur, die USA mit ausländischen Finanzmärkten verbindet. Für das US-Finanzsystem war die Staatsgarantie für die FM-Bonds daher ungeheuer wichtig. Die Rallye bei den Finanzwerten resultiert aus eben dieser Beruhigung.



Bei Lehman sieht die Sache gänzlich anders aus. Die Bank ist nicht so stark im Derivatemarkt vernetzt wie einst Bear Stearns. Daher ist eine Staatsrettung mit Steuergeldern nicht zwingend erforderlich.

Allerdings wird mit dem "Fallenlassen" von Lehman eine neue Dose der Pandora aufgemacht. Lehman wäre die erste Großbank, die Pleite geht, weil niemand mehr Geld vorstrecken will, weder andere Banken (im Zuge von Übernahmen) noch die US-Regierung noch irgendwelche Staatsfonds aus Nah- oder Fernost.

Lehman stirbt, weil die Liquidität komplett versiegt.

Daher müssen nun auch andere Großbanken zittern, dass der Bailout-Automatismus, der seit Bear Stearns und FNM/FRE die Märkte in falscher Sicherheit wiegte, nun nicht mehr wie gehabt greift. Mit jeder neuen Bankenpleite fallen die Kurse der verbliebenen Banken, was wiederum Kapitalerhöhungen erschwert und Investoren vergrault. Die Baisse nährt die Baisse.

FAZIT: Mit einer Lehman-Pleite beginnt eine neue Ära. Die "Ära der fallenden Großbanken", denen niemand mehr Geld geben will - nicht mal mehr der Staat.  "Der Markt" hat bislang noch den Bailout-Automatismus eingepreist. Ab Montag wird das nun sukzessive ausgepreist, insbesondere wenn sich bei WaMu und AIG auch keine willigen Käufer mehr finden sollten.

SPX 1200, wir kommen!
Antworten
Dreistein:

If Lehman Collapses, How Safe Are The Remaining ..

6
14.09.08 22:14
.... Broker Dealers?

# Main stumbling block for private sector solution for Lehman: Where to offload off-balance sheet toxic waste? Authorities are reluctant to backstop Lehman obligation as they did with Bear Stearns because after having access to Fed lending facilities it is clear that Lehman is insolvent, not illiquid as Bear Stearns was when the run occurred, or as LTCM was in 1998. However, too interconnected to fail is again a problem--> U.S. authorities are also in touch with heads of top European banks. Roubini: If Lehman collapses expect a run on all of the other broker dealers and the collapse of the shadow banking system. A holistic approach is needed at this point.

# Lehman is also a major counterparty in the CDS market as BearStearns was but industry itself played down systemic CDS risk-->  ISDA: Systemic risk from $62trillion CDS market is much smaller than this gross amount after netting (i.e. take all offsetting trades of two counterparties and calculate the one-off payment that one owes the other incl. recovery rates)

# Dealbreaker Sep 12: Authorities are working on a solution for Lehman with putting taxpayer money at risk. One possible solution may be to have regulators waive restrictions that have prevented private equity buyers from buying the troubled investment bank. Another plan under consideration is to bring in a foreign bank to make the purchase, with additional capital coming from private equity buyers--> Both the Fed and Treasury officials agree that there should not be another Fed backstop to Lehman obligations, one of tools employed to get JP Morgan Chase to buy Bear Stearns, especially after the discount lending facility for broker dealers.

# Paulson at Committee Heaings, July 10: "There are however systemically important institutions that need government intervention in case of a run. Looking beyond immediate market challenges, the trigger for invoking government's emergency authorities should be very high - such as filing for bankruptcy."

# cont.: Treasury explicitly wants President/Executive Branche to have the last say wherever public money is at stake, Bernanke agrees in his speech--> Fed initiative with Bear Stearns was a one-off stunt.

# Felix Salmon: LEH is still too big to fail but if it goes ahead with asset spin-off it won't be anymore.

# Paulson Chatham House speech, July 2: ``We need to create a resolution process that ensures the financial system can withstand the failure of a large complex financial firm." --> For the long term, Hank Paulson envisages separate resolution processes for deposit institutions and investment banks. Bernanke and FDICs Sheila Bair also advocate separate resolution processes (Bloomberg)

# Chatham House speech: "Strengthening market infrastructure will reduce the expectation that an institution is too interconnected to fail. We need to strengthen our practices and financial infrastructure in the OTC derivatives market (i.e. compression and also central clearing house) and in the tri-party repo system. Important work is underway in each of these areas, and needs to be completed quickly."

www.rgemonitor.com (kein deeplink möglich)
Antworten
Malko07:

Wichtig ist, dass die Pleite

9
14.09.08 22:14
vor dem Börsenstart offiziell wird und deutlich kommuniziert wird, dass alle Risiken geprüft wurden man alles im Griff hat. Der größte Fehler wären Rettungsversuche parallel zum Börsengeschehen. Das könnte WM und AIG stark schädigen.

Bei guter und rechtzeitiger Kommunikation kommt man eventuell mit einem blauen Auge davon. In New York rechnet man mit dem offiziellen Beginn der Liquidation noch vor Mitternacht, könnte also parallel zum Börsengeschehen in Asien laufen. In meinen Augen ein dicker Fehler,
Antworten
Dreistein:

Und noch mal Roubini

6
14.09.08 22:29
If Lehman collapses expect a run on all of the other broker dealers and the collapse of the shadow banking system

It is now clear that we are again – as we were in mid- March at the time of the Bear Stearns collapse – an epsilon away from a generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). If Lehman does not find a buyer over the weekend and the counterparties of Lehman withdraw their credit lines on Monday (as they all will in the absence of a deal) you will have not only a collapse of Lehman but also the beginning of a run on the other independent broker dealers (Merrill Lynch first but also in sequence Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and possibly even those broker dealers that are part of a larger commercial bank, I.e. JP Morgan and Citigroup). Then this run would lead to a massive systemic meltdown of the financial system. That is the reason why the Fed has convened in emergency meetings the heads of all major Wall Street firms on Friday and again today to convince them not to pull the plug on Lehman and maintain their exposure to this distressed broker dealer.

www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/253567/...hadow_banking_system
Antworten
Malko07:

Hier bei Ariva

2
14.09.08 22:38
gibt es einen Hinweis, dass die Bank of America inzwischen auch ausgestiegen ist und mit Merrill Lynch fusionieren will (aus dem Lehman Thread). Dann ist nächste Woche einer weniger gefährdet.
Antworten
Malko07:

Lehman allein im Wald

3
14.09.08 22:56

Angst vor Schockwelle an den Börsen

Krisengipfel um Rettung von Lehman Brothers droht zu scheitern

14. September 2008 An der Wall Street zeichnet sich inmitten der Kreditkrise eine massive Neuordnung der Finanzbranche ab. So stand die erhoffte Rettung der angeschlagenen amerikanischen Investmentbank Lehman Brothers am Sonntagabend auf der Kippe. Zunächst aussichtsreiche Verhandlungen mit der drittgrößten britischen Bank Barclays über eine Übernahme von Lehman waren gescheitert. Gleichzeitig berichtet das „Wall Street Journal“, dass die Bank of America in Fusionsverhandlungen mit der Investmentbank Merrill Lynch steht.

Die Bank of America, das zweitgrößte amerikanische Kreditinstitut, hatte neben Barclays als möglicher Käufer für Lehman geholten. Merrill Lynch war wegen hoher Verluste mit Hypothekenanlagen wie Lehman in den vergangenen Monaten schwer unter Druck geraten. Spitzenmanager führender Wall-Street-Banken hatten unter Leitung des amerikanischen Finanzministeriums und der Notenbank Fed am Wochenende in einer Krisensitzung Rettungspläne für Lehman Brothers erörtert.

Weiter unter www.faz.net/s/RubD16E1F55D21144C4AE3F9DDF52B6E1D9/...on~Scontent.html

 

Antworten
malsomalso:

Tokio und Hongkong

6
14.09.08 23:01
haben übrigens morgen - also gleich - geschlossen. Ist das nicht nett von Ihnen, so bleibt den Rettern noch ein wenig mehr Zeit, vor dem Start wichtiger Börsen Ergebnisse zu liefern. Echt, als ob es so geplant gewesen wäre ... :-)
Antworten
wawidu:

@AL - # 27921

7
14.09.08 23:03
Deinen Aussagen kann ich in fast allen Punkten zustimmen. Die F&F-Angelegenheit ist übrigens in der Finanzgeschichte ein bislang beispielloser Vorgang: Zwei Werte im Junk-Status, die aus dem SPX entfernt wurden, erhalten für ihre Bonds quasi AAA-Status.

Das Problem von Lehman und auch der verbleibenden Sorgenkinder ist mE jedoch nicht so sehr mangelnde Liquidität, sondern mangelnde Solvenz. Die "Bezugsberechtigten" erhielten ja von der Fed im Rahmen von TAF & Co seit Jahresbeginn etliche Liquiditätsspritzen, doch dadurch hat sich deren Solvenz resp. Eigenkapitalbasis kaum verbessert.

Ein weiterer in der Finanzgeschichte bislang beispielloser Vorgang wird vom angehängten Chart reflektiert:
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Der USA Bären-Thread 186291
Antworten
Malko07:

Derivatenhandel am Sonntag

5
14.09.08 23:13

Der Verband der Derivate-Händler stellte sich am Sonntag bereits auf einen Bankrott von Lehman ein. Die Organisation ISDA setzte eine zweistündige Notfall-Handelssitzung mit Händlern an der Wall Street und ihren Lehman-Partnern an. Dort sollten Derivate aus den Bereichen Kreditmarkt, Firmenkapital, Zinsen, ausländische Währungen und Rohstoffe gehandelt werden. Ziel der Sitzung sei, Risiken im Zusammenhang mit einem möglichen Konkursantrag von Lehman zu reduzieren, hieß es.

Quelle: www.sueddeutsche.de/finanzen/177/310108/text/

Antworten
Malko07:

Großreinemachen

3
14.09.08 23:24

Barclays Walks from Lehman Deal;
Likelihood for Transaction Narrows

By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG and SERENA NG
September 14, 2008 4:57 p.m.

The fate of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s darkened early Sunday afternoon after Barclays PLC, the sole remaining bidder for the 158-year-old Wall Street firm, told federal regulators that it is walking away from a transaction, people familiar with the matter say.

With Barclays ending talks and the government balking at putting any taxpayer money at risk for Lehman, the likelihood of a transaction was dimming. That would leave an orderly liquidation as the most likely scenario, a dramatic outcome for a once-powerful firm.

As word that a Barclays deal was off filtered across Wall Street, credit derivative traders scrambled to unwind their outstanding contracts with Lehman and shift their positions to other banks. CDS traders at many Wall Street firms were told to come to work immediately.

With many trading desks open, investors rushed to buy credit default swaps tied to other brokerages and corporations, sending the cost of protection on investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and others sharply higher. One senior trader said Bank of America is offering to face Lehman's counterparties in CDS trades, as long as the swaps don't reference Lehman's own debt.

In a statement on Sunday, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group whose members include many large dealers, said a "netting trading session" will take place between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday to allow Lehman's counterparties to offset their positions against each other.

"The purpose of this session is to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy filing," it said, adding that trades conducted during this period "are contingent on a bankruptcy filing on or before 11.59 p.m. New York time" today. If no filing takes place, the trades will be canceled, ISDA said.

The apparently insurmountable obstacle to a deal was reluctance by U.S. regulators to financially back an acquisition or the creation of a so-called "bad bank" to wind down Lehman's assets.

Bank of America Corp., the other leading bidder on Friday, had indicated by Sunday morning that it wasn't interested in a transaction without government support.

One person familiar with the matter said large dealers contemplated showing each other all of their credit default swap trades with Lehman. Disclosing their positions may enable dealers to find ways to offset their positions with each other wherever possible. Later in the day, some traders were told that Lehman -- with the help of Federal Reserve officials -- will try to figure out which of its counterparties have CDS trades that can be offset. Those counterparties would be informed of the offsetting positions, following which they can unwind their respective swaps with Lehman and concurrently enter into new swap contracts with each other. For example, if one dealer has bought a swap from Lehman and Lehman bought a similar swap from another bank, the two banks could agree to face each other directly.

Such moves could help prevent individual firms from scrambling to find new counterparties to rehedge their positions with when the markets reopen on Monday, potentially unleashing turmoil across the credit markets. They could also help facilitate an orderly wind-down of Lehman's derivative positions, if that becomes necessary. Still, sorting out the firm's CDS positions promises to be a difficult and time-consuming task, because many of the contracts have different terms and maturity dates.

It is not known how much in CDS contracts Lehman has. In a survey last year by Fitch Ratings, Lehman was listed among the 10 largest CDS counterparties by number of trades and the amount of debt to which the contracts were tied.

Wall Street traders poured into their offices Saturday for emergency meetings to consider the actions they would take if Lehman is forced into liquidation. They broke into teams to evaluate their positions and exposure to Lehman in everything from energy trades to equity derivatives to credit.

One trader said conditions in the credit default swap market and the short-term repo markets are more stable today than they were in March, when Bear Stearns nearly collapsed, but still, "if they go into liquidation," it is going to be a bad situation on Monday.

A disorderly unwind of Lehman's derivatives trades is only one worry. Another worry is that if Lehman collapses, its distressed assets -- such as commercial real estate -- could suddenly hit Wall Street for sale, forcing prices even lower and potentially forcing other dealers to mark down once again the value of their own holdings.

Lehman has hired law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP to prepare a potential bankruptcy filing, according to a person familiar with the situation. The New York-based Weil has a leading bankruptcy practice and advised Drexel Burnham Lambert on its 1990 bankruptcy filing.

In a Lehman bankruptcy, the firm's brokerage units would have to enter a Chapter 7 liquidation, in which a court-appointed trustee would take over, liquidate the firm's assets and get Lehman customers back their money. In general, securities that a customer holds at a brokerage firm are legally the investor's property and aren't exposed to the claims of the firm's creditors.

Write to Carrick Mollenkamp at carrick.mollenkamp@wsj.com, Matthew Karnitschnig at matthew.karnitschnig@wsj.com and Serena Ng at serena.ng@wsj.com


Bank of America,  Merrill Lynch   In Merger Talks

By Matthew Karnitschnig, Susanne Craig and Dennis K. Berman Word Count: 94

Bank of America and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. are in merger discussions, according to people familiar with the ...


AIG Plans Major Restructuring,  Sale of Aircraft-Leasing Business

By Matthew Karnitschnig Word Count: 340     |  Companies Featured in This Article: American International Group

American International Group Inc. plans to disclose a comprehensive restructuring by early Monday morning that is likely to include the disposal of major assets including its aircraft-leasing business and other holdings, according to people familiar with the matter.

AIG's management team was scrambling on Sunday afternoon to cobble together the plan and present it to the insurer's board for approval, the people said. The insurer, which has already raised ...

 


Leichtgläubigen kann man dieses Wochenende auch als Großreinemachen verkaufen nach dem Motto: Jetzt ist die Bankenkrise überwunden und es geht aufwärts!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Antworten
wawidu:

Bedenkliche Entwicklung

3
14.09.08 23:42
Die Preise der Munibonds verfallen in Relation zu den 7-10yr T-Bonds zunehmend, d.h. die Kosten für frisches Geld steigen für die Bundesstaaten und Kommunen immer mehr.
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Der USA Bären-Thread 186297
Antworten
Kicky:

Sonntagarbeit für Trader von CDS Contracts

6
15.09.08 00:16
.....As word that a Barclays deal was off filtered across Wall Street, credit derivative traders scrambled to unwind their outstanding contracts with Lehman and shift their positions to other banks. CDS traders at many Wall Street firms were told to come to work immediately.

With many trading desks open, investors rushed to buy credit default swaps tied to other brokerages and corporations, sending the cost of protection on investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and others sharply higher. One senior trader said Bank of America is offering to face Lehman's counterparties in CDS trades, as long as the swaps don't reference Lehman's own debt.


In a statement on Sunday, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group whose members include many large dealers, said a "netting trading session" will take place between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday to allow Lehman's counterparties to offset their positions against each other......
One person familiar with the matter said large dealers contemplated showing each other all of their credit default swap trades with Lehman. Disclosing their positions may enable dealers to find ways to offset their positions with each other wherever possible. Later in the day, some traders were told that Lehman -- with the help of Federal Reserve officials -- will try to figure out which of its counterparties have CDS trades that can be offset. Those counterparties would be informed of the offsetting positions, following which they can unwind their respective swaps with Lehman and concurrently enter into new swap contracts with each other. For example, if one dealer has bought a swap from Lehman and Lehman bought a similar swap from another bank, the two banks could agree to face each other directly.

Such moves could help prevent individual firms from scrambling to find new counterparties to rehedge their positions with when the markets reopen on Monday, potentially unleashing turmoil across the credit markets. They could also help facilitate an orderly wind-down of Lehman's derivative positions, if that becomes necessary. Still, sorting out the firm's CDS positions promises to be a difficult and time-consuming task, because many of the contracts have different terms and maturity dates.It is not known how much in CDS contracts Lehman has. In a survey last year by Fitch Ratings, Lehman was listed among the 10 largest CDS counterparties by number of trades and the amount of debt to which the contracts were tied.
A disorderly unwind of Lehman's derivatives trades is only one worry. Another worry is that if Lehman collapses, its distressed assets -- such as commercial real estate -- could suddenly hit Wall Street for sale, forcing prices even lower and potentially forcing other dealers to mark down once again the value of their own holdings.
online.wsj.com/article/...8846233147.html?mod=special_coverage
Antworten
Kicky:

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch In Merger Talks

3
15.09.08 00:19
Bank of America and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. are in merger discussions, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details of the terms under discussion weren't immediately clear but Merrill was believed to be asking for a price that would value the firm at well above $40 billion...........
online.wsj.com/article/...8543033525.html?mod=special_coverage
Antworten
Kicky:

AIG Plans Major Restructuring, Sale of Aircraft-

3
15.09.08 00:22
Sale of Aircraft-Leasing Business. American International Group Inc. plans to disclose a comprehensive restructuring by early Monday morning that is likely to include the disposal of major assets including its aircraft-leasing business and other holdings, according to people familiar with the matter.

AIG's management team was scrambling on Sunday afternoon to cobble together the plan and present it to the insurer's board for approval, the people said. ......
online.wsj.com/article/...4136033581.html?mod=special_coverage

die geben sich richtig Mühe,die Dinge in den Griff zu kriegen,aber ob das gelingt?
da muss man schon sehr optimistisch sein  
Antworten
Kicky:

Merril Lynch Übernahme zu 25-30$/share

11
15.09.08 00:33
business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/.../article4753967.ece
...... Just hours after it emerged that BoA had ruled itself out of a move on Lehman, rumours emanated from Wall Street that the bank was discussing an all-share deal to buy beleagured Merrill Lynch for between $25 and $30 a share compared to Friday's close of $17.05. ......

Kommentar bei FTD Blog Alphaville:
But wait. The US Treasury, the Fed, BoA, Barclays, a host of reps from every serious bank in the West, and even Bob Diamond, spend THREE DAYS discussing a bail-out of Lehman.

And when those crisis talks fail, Lewis coolly turns round and says, almost publicly, “Hey, we’ll bid for Merrill instead. And we’ll pay something approaching a 100 per cent premium to the market price…which will cost, er…$38bn.” Really?

Are BoA shareholders happy with the chief executive spending their money in this way? Or is the bank a defacto arm of the US Treasury? Or is the systemic hole both regulators and Wall St execs are looking into really so deep that the markets should be bluntly managed away from pricing in catastrophe?

Sure, in normal times, a $38bn bid at a a slam dunk premium would have had the financial markets salivating. Right now it is just as likely to induce foaming around the mouth.
Antworten
derph:

Nun doch vermehrt Anzeichen für Kollaps von Lehman

5
15.09.08 01:15
00:35:18
Nun doch vermehrt Anzeichen für Kollaps von Lehman

New York/Washington, 15. Sep (Reuters) - In den USA deuten die Anzeichen nun doch auf einen unmittelbar bevorstehenden Kollaps der Investmentbank Lehman Brothers hin. Experten haben für diesen Fall kräftige Verwerfungen an den internationalen Finanzmärkten vorhergesagt. An den US-Aktienmärkten gaben die Futures in der Nacht zum Montag bereits deutlich nach.
...[der Rest des Artikels ist schon bekannt]

aktuell die Futures:
Dow-Future    11141   (-317)
Nasd-Fut          1742   (-  38)
S&P-Fut            1227   (-  31)
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Vorspiel für einen "Schwarzen Montag"?

7
15.09.08 06:49
Die Finanzkrise hat sich über's WE drastisch verschärft. Die strauchelnde Merrill Lynch wurde für 29 $ pro Aktie von Bank of America aufgekauft, Lehman steht mangels Käufern und staatlicher Stütze vor der Pleite und hat bereits "bankcruptcy filings" vorbereitet, AIG sucht weiterhin händeringend Cash. Der steile Anstieg der Credit Default Swaps auf die drei Finanzinstitute spricht Bände (unten).

An der Wall Street herrschte am WE Hochbetrieb. In einer Not-Session am Sonntagnachmittag versuchten Hedgefonds in hektischem Handel, ihre Derivate auf die betroffenen Finanzinstitute loszuschlagen, insbesondere Papiere von Lehmann wurden in Panikverkäufen ("fire sales") abgestoßen.

Zehn Großbanken, darunter Citi und die Deutsche Bank, gründeten einen 70 Milliarden Dollar ausgestatteten Auffang-Fonds, die Fed will ihre Fensteraktivitäten ebenfalls ausweiten.

Statt der Erleichterungs-Rallye, die es bei einer wie auch immer gearteten "Lehman-Rettung" gegeben hätte, droht nun auch an den Börsen ein "Schwarzer Montag". Extreme Kursverluste könnten die Fed animieren, die Zinsen weiter zu senken. Der Dollar steht heute morgen schon wieder über 1,44.



WSJ
Crisis on Wall Street as Lehman Totters,Merrill Is Sold, AIG Seeks to Raise Cash
Fed Will Expand Its Lending Arsenal in a Bid to Calm Markets;
Moves Cap a Momentous Weekend for American Finance
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, SUSANNE CRAIG, SERENA NG and AARON LUCCHETTI
September 15, 2008

The American financial system was shaken to its core on Sunday. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. faced the prospect of liquidation, and Merrill Lynch & Co. agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp.

The U.S. government, which bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a week ago and orchestrated the sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in March, played much tougher with Lehman. It refused to provide a financial backstop to potential buyers.

Without such support, Barclays PLC and Bank of America, the two most interested buyers, walked away. On Sunday night, Bank of America struck a deal to buy Merrill Lynch for $29 a share, or about $44 billion. Lehman was working on a possible bankruptcy filing that would allow most of its subsidiaries to continue operating as the firm is wound down.

Though it steered clear of a bailout, the Federal Reserve is expected to take new steps to stabilize the broader financial system. These steps, expected to be temporary, would make it easier for banks and securities firms to borrow from the central bank by using a wider range of collateral. Bankers say these financial institutions might need short-term funds as they unwind their many trading positions with Lehman.

In addition, 10 major commercial and investment banks announced Sunday night that they would pool $70 billion of their own money to create a borrowing facility. The 10 institutions, which include Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank AG, could tap the pool to help them ride out the crisis. The banks also said they are mutually committed to trying to mitigate market volatility.

A sense of foreboding [böse Ahnung] gripped Wall Street as top executives feared collateral damage from a Lehman liquidation. Attention was focused on Merrill Lynch, which boasts the largest force of retail brokers, and American International Group Inc., the insurance giant. Both firms have seen their stocks get hammered on worries that they needed capital.

"Monday will be a day of reckoning for the financial markets," said Carlos Mendez, senior managing director of ICP Capital, a boutique investment firm in New York. On Sunday, he said, "it was like a fire alarm went off and people ran in all directions."

AIG executives spent the weekend trying to raise cash, either from asset sales or a capital infusion from private-equity firms, or both. AIG executives were meeting with regulators to see if they could transfer capital from some of its subsidiaries to the holding company.

As worries spread across Wall Street that Lehman wouldn't survive, brokerage firms, hedge funds and other traders moved to disentangle themselves from trades with Lehman. When hopes of a potential sale dimmed, a quiet Sunday on Wall Street turned into a mad rush. Executives and traders hurried to their offices or worked their phones to unwind outstanding contracts with Lehman and to gauge their overall exposure.

Merrill, whose brokerage force is known as the "thundering herd," quietly entered into discussions with Bank of America, which has retail bank branches stretching from coast to coast and has long coveted Merrill. Wall Street executives said the Federal Reserve may have been involved in orchestrating the sale, figuring that it was "better to save the relatively healthy patient instead of the dying one," said a lawyer involved in the discussions.

Lehman, a 158-year-old firm that started as an Alabama cotton brokerage, and Merrill, with its trademark bull logo, have been pillars of Wall Street for much of the past century. With the demise of Bear Stearns, three of the Street's five major independent brokers could end up disappearing, leaving only Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.
[insurance against defaults]

"We have never seen anything like this," said analyst Glenn Schorr, who covers the investment banks for UBS AG. "There have been tough situations like Long-Term Capital Management and the crash of 1987, but the problem here is there is leverage in the securities under the microscope and in the banks that own them. And to try and unwind it all at once creates a one-way market where there are only sellers, and no buyers."

The convulsions could lead to even tighter credit, higher borrowing costs and moribund capital markets, as securities firms and commercial banks try to further limit risk and preserve capital. Those moves could cause the U.S. economy to slow further.

The future of about 25,000 employees at Lehman and an additional 60,000 at Merrill is up in the air. Lehman's work force already has shrunk by about 3,000 in the past year. If the firm essentially goes out of business, most of the remaining employees are likely to lose their jobs. That would deal another blow to New York City's economy, resulting in lower tax revenues on personal income, real-estate transactions and corporate income.

The damage on Wall Street is the latest consequence of a storm that began last year with the sharp decline in American housing prices and losses on loans and other assets tied to home values. Massive capital infusions have failed to stem write-offs and losses, and financial firms are running out of options to escape the damage.

Regulators and others were preparing for a hectic Monday. The New York Stock Exchange prepared contingency plans over the weekend to reassign the approximately 200 blue-chip stocks that Lehman's specialist unit trades, according to people familiar with the matter. If Lehman is forced into liquidation, the exchange will likely transfer the stocks to one or more of the remaining specialist firms, most likely using the same technology and staff that currently trade the stocks.

Dozens of Wall Street desks have trades with Lehman. As word spread that the Barclays deal was falling apart, worries that the company could be thrown into bankruptcy mounted, and traders labored to get out of those contracts.

At approximately 2:30 p.m., government officials hosted a call, and a trading session was opened to ease fears. One trader said it was agreed that other brokers would pick up contracts that trading desks have with Lehman. If Lehman does open on Monday, the deals struck on Sunday, often at a worse price, would be void. "It is utter chaos here," the trader said.

At many Wall Street firms, traders of credit-default swaps -- contracts that act as insurance against debt defaults -- were told to come to work immediately. Concerned investors were rushing to buy swaps tied to other brokerages and corporations, sending the cost of protection on investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and others sharply higher.

In a statement Sunday, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a trade group whose members include many large dealers, said a "netting trading session" took place between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. on Sunday. The idea was to allow firms to try to unwind their derivatives transactions with Lehman by finding other parties to step into Lehman's shoes.

"The purpose of this session is to reduce risk associated with a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy filing," it said. It added that trades conducted during this period "are contingent on a bankruptcy filing on or before 11:59 p.m. New York time" on Sunday. If no filing takes place, the trades will be canceled, ISDA said.

Some traders said it was difficult to find new counterparties for many of their outstanding trades with Lehman. The snags included different terms and maturity dates on derivatives contracts, and market prices changed rapidly Sunday afternoon. "People were screaming at each other over the phone, asking: How can this work?" one trader said.

William Gross, chief investment officer at bond-fund giant Pacific Investment Management Co., said very few Lehman trades were offset. "There's an immediate risk related to the unwind of these positions," he said.

Many Wall Street firms concluded that a liquidation of Lehman's assets likely would proceed in an orderly fashion, people familiar with the situation said. That means other firms could quickly buy real estate, securities and other investments, preventing the assets from flooding the market. Because of that, these people said, some participants in the New York Fed talks decided that liquidation was no worse an option than selling Lehman to a buyer such as Barclays.

"There will be an orderly wind down," said one banker involved in the matter. "This was the default option. It happens when you have no buyer."

The outside firms decided that instead of making guarantees for Barclays or some other purchaser of Lehman, they would prefer to pool their resources and buy the assets themselves, taking on the risks and carrying costs, along with the possibility of profiting down the road.

Those firms would likely then buy assets such as mortgage-backed securities, leveraged loans, private-equity positions and investments in real estate or hedge funds.

Roger Freeman, a nine-year Lehman employee who analyzes brokerage firms, spent the weekend gathering cellphone numbers and email addresses from colleagues who also are likely to lose their jobs. He plans to clean out his desk Monday morning. "We worked long hours here, we've made some of our best friends here. We're suddenly being ripped apart," he said. "It's just unbelievable."

--Jon Hilsenrath, Jeffrey McCracken and David Enrich contributed to this article.

online.wsj.com/article/...846233147.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news



Hier der steile Anstieg der Credit Default Swaps auf Lehman, AIG und Merrill Lynch:
Der USA Bären-Thread 186331
Antworten
CarpeDies:

Lehman insolvent

5
15.09.08 07:16
NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - Die schwer angeschlagene Investmentbank Lehman Brothers
Holdings steht vor dem Aus. Die US-Bank beantragte am Montagmorgen
Insolvenzschutz nach Kapitel 11. Die US-Regierung schloss dabei die zuvor in
anderen Fällen geleisteten Staatshilfen bis zuletzt aus.

Nach Angaben von Lehman fallen die Broker-Sparten nicht unter Chapter 11, zudem
arbeiten diese Sparten weiter. Die US-Bank prüft unterdessen weiter den Verkauf
der Broker-Sparten und des Investment Bankings.


Mit Lehman Brothers steht binnen sechs Monaten bereits die zweite der einst fünf
unabhängigen US-Investmentbanken vor dem Scheitern. Im März war der kleinere
Konkurrent Bear Stearns in einem Notverkauf an den Finanzkonzern JPMorgan
gegangen./tw/sk  
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

CDS auf AIG noch teurer als auf Lehman

6
15.09.08 07:22
Nach dem Chart im letzten Posting beträgt der Preis,  den Investoren zahlen müssen, um 10 Mio. Schulden der betroffenen Banken/Broker für einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren gegen Ausfall abzusichern

- bei Merrill Lynch knapp 0,5 Mio. (= knapp 5 % der Summe)

- bei Lehman gut 0,7 Mio (= gut 7 % der Summe)

- bei AIG rund 0,8 Mio. (= 8 % der Summe)

Da Lehman heute Bankrott beantragen wird (siehe Bloomberg) und Merrill Lynch sich nur noch durch einen Verkauf an Bank of America retten konnte, frage ich mich:

Wie steht es um die Solvenz des ehemals weltgrößten Versicherers?

AIG ist ein wirkliches Schwergewicht. Wenn die fallen, bleibt kein Auge trocken.
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Nur noch zwei große Broker in USA: GS und Morgan S

5
15.09.08 08:15
Mit der Übernahme von Merrill Lynch und bei einem Aus für Lehman Brothers würden damit binnen kurzer Zeit von einst fünf unabhängigen US-Investmentbanken nur noch die Branchenführer Goldman Sachs und Morgan Stanley übrig bleiben. Beide legen in dieser Woche mit Spannung erwartete Quartalszahlen vor.

www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/...hutz/413773.html
Antworten
Anti Lemming:

Fiasko für Shorts auf Merrill Lynch

7
15.09.08 08:24
Merrill Lynch wurde auf Drängen der US-Regierung für 29 Dollar pro Aktie von Bank of America übernommen (Link im letzten Posting). Merrill Lynch schloss am Freitag bei nur 17 Dollar. Das entspricht einem Kurssprung von 70 Prozent.

Um solchen Stolpersteinen aus dem Weg zu gehen, bevorzuge ich Shorts auf Banken- bzw. Finanz-Indizes:

XLF (als Short)
SKF (2 x Ultrashort - als Long)

Risikostreuung ist nicht nur für Longs, sondern auch für Shorts ein Muss.

Zurzeit bin ich flat, da ich am Freitag nicht vorhersagen konnte (bzw. keine "Wetten" eingehen wollte), was am WE alles über die Bühne geht. Auch diese Entscheidung bereue ich nicht.
(Verkleinert auf 77%) vergrößern
Der USA Bären-Thread 186339
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