China's oil demand unlikely to decline

Wenn die oben stehende Erklärung korrekt ist, im Bezug auf "initial phase of a strategic oil stockpile, which could start to be filled within the next year." dann stehen den westlichen Volkswirtschaften große Problem bevor.  

Eine weitere Energie bezogene Nachricht:

Energy Dept. Predicts Rise In Winter Bills
Heating Oil Marked For Significant Climb

hxxp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13529-2004Oct6.html

The Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, said the average costs of heating oil, natural gas, propane and electricity are expected to rise across the country from October through March.
..................
The most significant cost increase for households is expected in heating oil, which is predicted to rise 28 percent in the Northeast. The cost of natural gas is expected to increase by 15 percent in the Midwest. The report predicts the household cost of fuels in the regions where they are most commonly used.

Eine weitere Nachricht im Bezug auf die reale Preisinflation:

Copper, Aluminum Rise to 9-Year Highs as Inventories Slump
hxxp://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aT5ZNYK9AWzs&refer=home

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and aluminum futures rose to nine-year highs in London as growth in worldwide demand, led by China, forced users to drain inventories of metals needed in construction and manufacturing.

Die Feds kam in dieser Woche mit voller Kraft hervor und behauptete, das die Inflation - und Inflationserwartungen keine Bedrohung darstellen würden.

Diese Art von Falschaussagen macht diese Angelegenheit nur noch schlimmer, weil die Dauer und die Intensität von dem Ölschock von den Märkten (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, DAX, Euro Stoxx, Nikkei) unterschätzt werden. Und weil das Vertrauen in das Management von den USA und damit von dem US-$ unter den internationalen Investoren weiter verloren geht.

Die Vermögensdeflation (Immobilien, Aktien von dem breiten Aktienmarkt) ist die größte Angst.

Ivan causes oil pipeline leaks in Gulf
hxxp://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/10/07/...ipeline_leaks_in_gulf/

"Hurricane Ivan punched holes in the network of oil and natural gas pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, causing oil and gas to leak out at numerous points along the thousands of miles of pipelines. In the wake of the hurricane, oil production in the Gulf is more than 3 million barrels per week below average, putting U.S. crude inventories at historically tight levels and contributing to the record price of oil. "We all know there was certainly a lot of damage caused by Ivan to the pipeline system," said Caryl Fagot, a spokeswoman for the Minerals Management Service. "I do not have a good count as to how many leaks there have been." The Minerals Management Service has asked companies to inspect oil rigs and pipelines in the path of Ivan for damage. That work, much of it done underwater, may take months to finish."

Dieses ist ein weiterer Beitrag der zu höheren Ölpreisen führen wird in den kommenden Wochen/Monaten. Ich wette das wir in den nächsten Wochen einen Preis für das Crude von  $60+++ sehen werden. Das Gold wird auch auf neue Höhen steigen. $480 halte ich in den kommenden Wochen für wahrscheinlich! Am Jahresende werden wir einen Goldpreis von $500+++ sehen und einen Silberpreis von $12+++.

Marc Faber on Oil
hxxp://www.quamnet.com/fcgi-bin/...l?par2=5&par3=2&par4=05&par5=10&par6=2004

"First of all, if we look at oil prices in real terms - that is oil prices adjusted for inflation - the real prices is right now still about 50% lower than it was at its January 1980 peak (see figure 2). In fact, oil is now not much higher than it was in the early 1970s, when the last big oil bull market got underway."...

[Secondly] "But, what is important to understand is that whereas the 1970 oil price increases were coming from a supply shock..." "... today's oil price increase is structural in nature."

Per Capita Oil Consumption Figures

"...if we look at what happened to per capita oil consumption during phases of industrialization in the US between 1900 and 1970, we see that per capita consumption rose from one barrel per year to around 28 barrels. In the case of Japan's industrialization between 1950 and 1970 and South-Korea's between 1965 and 1990, per capita oil consumption rose from one barrel to 17 barrels (see figure 3)."

"...In the case of China, oil demand per capita is still only 1.7 barrels per year, and for India it has only reached 0.7 barrels. By comparison Mexico consumes annually about 7 barrels of oil per capita and the entire Latin American continent around 4.5 barrels."...

ECB's Board Member Otmar Issing on oil-prices.
hxxp://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2004/html/sp041003.en.html

"Another downside risk to the growth projections relates to oil prices. In particular, the oil price increase observed over the last year and particularly the fact that oil prices have remained at a higher than expected level for quite some time could imply risks to growth. However, when assessing its impact, it should be taken into account that the recent rise in oil prices has been significantly smaller than in previous episodes when oil price increases had a major impact on the world economy. This is not only true when looking at developments in oil prices in USD terms, but particularly when expressed in euro terms, as the past appreciation of the euro had a dampening effect. In addition, in real terms, oil prices are significantly below the peaks they have reached in the past. Moreover, when compared with the 1970s and 1980s, the oil intensity of production in the euro area and elsewhere has fallen significantly. In 2001, the oil intensity of the euro area, measured as oil consumption in relation to real GDP, decreased by almost 49%, compared with its peak in 1973. Finally, while previous oil price increases have mainly been driven by supply factors, the recent increase is also partly due to higher demand for oil, on the back of the strong global expansion. All these factors put the downside risks to economic activity coming from oil prices, which I do not neglect, into perspective. Nevertheless, persistently high and even further increasing oil prices would be a reason for concern."