China - die Wiege des Bösen (für Aktien?)

Ex-Kommunisten haben die süße Versuchung der Marktwirtschaft entdeckt und saugen den Nektar, bis ihnen die (Aktien-)Blase platzt. Dass ist ähnlich wie Schweden, die sich auf einer Ostseefähre steuerfrei bis zur Bewegungsunfähigkeit besaufen. Morgen geht es dann wieder weiter mit Reiskochen.

Was wir in Asien sehen, ist mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht das Ende, sonder der Beginn einer Entwicklung. China tritt mit seiner Bevölkerung von mehr als einer Milliarde Menschen an. Derzeit ist nur ein kleiner Teil von ihnen wettbewerbsfähig. Aber auch die anderen, die noch nicht Teil des Weltmarkts geworden sind, besitzen keine minderwertige DNA und keinen geringeren Intelligenzquotienten als wir. Das Wissen verbreitet sich rasend schnell. Auch diese Menschen werden sich integrieren. China kann sich noch hundertmal die Nase stoßen und wird auch in 25 Jahren nicht den Pro – Kopf – Reichtum der USA erreicht haben.
Aber als Volkswirtschaft wird das chinesische Sozialprodukt das amerikanische in nicht allzu ferner Zeit übersteigen. Das ist es, was zählt in der Geopolitik. Schreibt man die Entwicklung fort, wird China bald die beherrschende Volkswirtschaft der Welt sein.
China ist schon heute ein 800 Pfund schwerer Gorilla, der mitten im Wohnzimmer steht.
( Paul A. Samuelson, Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger )

Der schwierige Faktor ist die Frage nach dem was kommt jetzt...


""China kann sich noch hundertmal die Nase stoßen und wird auch in 25 Jahren nicht den Pro – Kopf – Reichtum der USA erreicht haben.""

weiss man nicht so recht . Was @dahinterschauer in 100 fragt, ahben andera cuh schon oft gefragt und keine Antwort bekommen: wo sind zumindest richtge Zahlen??? der Rest kommt dann schon...irgendwie..vielleicht  ;-)


Paul A. Samuelson
(Gary, Indiana, in 1915)

Phi Beta Kappa Society

cepa.newschool.edu/het/profiles/samuelson.htm

SSE heute 8,84 % im Minus!

was habe ich am vierten gesagt ;)

haettet ihr wohl besser gehoert lah ;0


ist nur ne korrektur ... keine panik
fundamental ist alles ok , ist eben alles total ueberkauft in jedem markt .

mfg
viel glueck  

Im Eingangsposting hatte ich die Befürchtung geäußert, der heißgelaufene chinesische Aktienmarkt könnte ähnliche abschmieren wie der saudiarabische letztes Jahr (minus 50 %). Nun gab es heute mit minus 9 % die erste geballte Ladung. Nach den desolaten Vorgaben heute in USA (DOW intraday bis minus 502 Punkte!) dürfte die Talfahrt in China morgen weitergehen.

In Saudiarabien lassen sich viele der abgezockten Investoren bei Psychologen gegen Depressionen behandeln (siehe Artikel am Ende des Eingangspostings). Solche Tristesse droht auch in China: Da haben ja einige Leute ernsthaft ihre Kreditkarten überzogen, um "schnell noch" Aktien zu kaufen.

Wie kann man ein Land wie China mit Saudi-Arabien vergleichen?

so wie Tote bei aller Unterschiedlichkeit einander ähnlich werden

im Doomsday - Bären - Thread eingestellten Artikel, welcher dann unrühmlicherweise gelöscht wurde.

Irrational Exuberance in China

Na ja, haben wir ja jetzt auch live erfahren.

Die Korrektur nach dem gestrigen 8,8-%-Minus-Schlachtfest erfolgte bei niedrigem Volumen.

Barry Ritholtz Blog

The Indian Market Broke Before China

in Investing | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment

As a follow up to the 10 Myths column, ...

[siehe auch hier: http://www.ariva.de/board/283343?pnr=3132816#jump3132816 ]

...an astute reader sends us the chart below of the Bombay Stock Market.

Note that Indian Markets have been softening since early February, giving up over 1,000 points from their Feb peak. They finally broke trend days before the debacle hit in China.

You can draw the lines in many different ways, but they all lead to a major break the primary trend: 

We can draw quite a few conclusions about this -- including something trendy about the interconnectedness of global markets.

But this is further fuel to my argument against "all of this was started by China." Something was clearly occuring in the Emerging Markets prior to the plunge in China. 

The government plans to set up an agency to manage its reserves that will seek higher returns and invest in companies in a similar way to Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte., Finance Minister Jin Renqing said on March 9. Three days later, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China will support efforts by domestic organizations to invest abroad, adding it'll be a slow process.

``China's overseas investment experience is fairly short,'' Wen said today. ``China's outbound investment is tiny as compared to developed countries.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1 basis point to 4.53 percent at 13:24 a.m. in Singapore, according to broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The dollar dropped to $1.3295 from $1.3238 in New York yesterday, paring some of its decline after Wen's comments.

``There's no reason to fear that they don't like Treasuries anymore and are moving straight away into euros or something else,'' Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist at Unicredit in Munich, said before the press conference. ``If they did that they'd shoot themselves in the foot.''

Difficult Task

Investing the $200 billion in new reserves China created every year isn't going to be easy, Donald Straszheim, vice chairman of Roth Capital Partners in Newport Beach, California, wrote in a report last month. He estimates Chinese organizations invested $9 billion overseas in each of the last three years.

Lou Jiwei, a former vice finance minister promoted to China's cabinet on March 6, will manage the agency. Lou holds a master's degree in econometrics from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He served for three years as deputy governor of southern China's Guizhou province, one of the country's most impoverished provinces.

``His specialty has been Chinese fiscal and monetary policy, and he has no western education or western working experience - financial sector or otherwise,'' Straszheim wrote.

The central bank-controlled State Administration of Foreign Exchange has invested about 70 percent of the reserves in dollar assets, according to estimates by Standard Chartered Plc. The central bank had a 26 billion yuan ($3.4 billion) loss from exchange rate movements in 2006, according to estimates by Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered. in Shanghai. The yuan rose 3.3 percent against the dollar last year.

Estimated Profits

The higher interest rates the central bank gets from U.S. debt than its cost of funding will make up for the decline in the dollar, said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp., the nation's biggest investment bank. The U.S. pays 4.5 percent on its three-year bills, higher than the 3.15 percent China's central bank offers buyers of its similar-maturity notes.

The People's Bank of China received 343 billion yuan from interest payments on its reserve investments last year, according to estimates by Green. It paid 47 billion yuan to lenders for the reserves they hold at the central bank and 43 billion yuan to buyers of its bills. Including the loss from currency fluctuations, the central bank had a profit of 227 billion yuan in 2006, Green estimates.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christina Soon in Beijing at csksoon@bloomberg.net .  

yahoo.reuters.com/news/...T_0_CHINA-INTEREST-RATE-UPDATE-1.XML

The Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index gained 156 percent in the past 12 months after China ended a one-year ban on domestic stock sales in May to draw more of the nation's savings into equities. The government must pay attention to ``bubbles'' in the stock market before they get too large, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Chinese legislature, wrote in a commentary published Feb. 6 in the Chinese-language Financial News.

Publicly traded companies must use share-sale proceeds as outlined in their prospectuses unless their stockholders approve changes, the securities regulator said today.

Financial institutions such as China Life Insurance Co. and Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., the nation's two largest insurers, will still be able to invest in equities as allowed under their business scope.

Ping An made 4.3 billion yuan -- more than a third of its total investment income in the first nine months last year -- from equities and mutual funds, according to its domestic share sale document. The Shenzhen-based insurer raised $5 billion in a share sale in China this year.

China's securities regulator Shang Fulin is reinforcing the policies of central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan as the government tries to cool an economy that expanded 10.7 percent last year. The nation's stocks tumbled the most in 10 years on Feb. 27 after the State Council task force was announced.

To contact the reporter for this story: Josephine Lau in Beijing at jlau22@bloomberg.net  

Chinese Banks

ICBC, China's biggest listed lender, lost 1.4 percent to 5.47 yuan. Bank of China Ltd., the country's second-biggest, slid 1.2 percent to 5.62 yuan. China Merchants Bank Co., the third- biggest, dropped 2.1 percent to 17.18 yuan.

The reserve requirement ratio, the amount banks must hold rather than lend, will rise by 0.5 percentage point to 10.5 percent from April 16, the People's Bank of China said yesterday. The increase, the sixth in less than a year, will remove 170 billion yuan ($22 billion) from the financial system for lending.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan wants to cut excess investment as he tries to cool an economy that grew 10.7 percent last year, compared with a government target of 8 percent. Zhou last month raised interest rates to an eight-year high to reduce the risk of loans fueling inflation and asset bubbles.

`Buying Spree'

The CSI 300 Index, previously known as the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, rose 0.5 percent, set to close at a record for a fifth day. The measure has gained 6.4 percent in the past five days, the third consecutive weekly advance.

Brokerages gained on speculation the climb will spur trading and boost brokerage revenue. Citic Securities Co., China's biggest publicly traded brokerage, advanced 2 percent to 51 yuan. Hong Yuan Securities Co., the country's first publicly traded brokerage, jumped 6.8 percent to 27.02 yuan.

The daily trading value for Shanghai's yuan-denominated A shares averaged 88.1 billion yuan this year, compared with 23.7 billion yuan in 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Citic Securities on March 15 said profit rose almost sixfold last year.

``Brokerages' first-quarter earnings are likely to be surprisingly strong,'' said Zhang Ling, who manages the equivalent of $1.09 billion at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Beijing. ``That has prompted a buying spree.''  

 
Shanghai A Share Index 3,712.22 37.86
Shanghai B Share Index 188.22 0.22
Shenzhen A Share Index 993.26 21.86
Shenzhen B Share Index 546.53 3.27
Taiwan Weighted Index 8,075.20 9.25
Singapore Straits Times Index 3,377.28 43.34
Nikkei 225 Index 17,540.42 129.65
Seoul Composite Index 1,525.61 12.19
Thailand SET Index 691.93 3.17
KLSE Composite Index 1,308.98 2.76
Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index 1,930.62 0.42



1454 [Dow Jones] HSBC (0005.HK [News / Quote]) +0.2% at HK$139.60 vs HSI's 0.3% fall despite Credit Suisse's downgrade to Neutral. Morgan Stanley remains HSBC faithful; notes bank made more than US$10 billion PBT in emerging markets in 2006, from Asian and Latin America, 'it made more than triple what Standard Chartered (2888.HK [News / Quote]) made in its entirety'. These EM businesses grew profits at 20% last year, made ROE of close to 30%. MS of view market is too focused on U.S. sub-prime problem while ignoring its EM businesses 'where HSBC is well positioned and where credit issues are limited'. Keeps Overweight call with HK$160 target. Top cap's volume light at HK$883 million.(RLI) Contact us in Hong Kong. 852 2802 7002; MarketTalk@dowjones.com

und dürfte mittelfristig unter "mitgefangen, mitgehangen" rangieren

Foreign reserves jump 37% to US$1.2 trillion
2007-4-12


CHINA'S foreign reserves, the world's largest, have risen past US$1.2 trillion, the central bank said today.

The figure as of the end of March represented a 37.4 percent increase over the same time last year, the People's Bank of China said on its Website.

China's reserves have risen rapidly amid a boom in exports and foreign investment.  

Die Antwort ist: Nein. Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt war 2006 mit rund 2,6 Billionen Dollar zwar noch immer niedriger als das BIP der Bundesrepublik. Doch seit dem Jahr 2000 ist Chinas Wirtschaftsleistung jährlich um rund 10 Prozent gewachsen - das Wachstum war zehnmal so stark wie in Deutschland (durchschnittlich 0,9 Prozent pro Jahr).

Mit einer solchen Dynamik ist China Herz und Motor der gesamten asiatischen Wirtschaftsregion, die es bereits auf 22 Prozent der weltweiten Wirtschaftsleistung bringt und damit auf Augenhöhe mit Euroland spielt. China ist Taktgeber für Asiens wirtschaftliche Dynamik: Überhitzt der Motor, erlahmt die gesamte Region.

Der Boomregion Asien kommt noch aus einem anderen Grund eine besondere Bedeutung zu.

Einem stabilen Wachstum in Asien kommt auch deshalb eine besondere Bedeutung zu, weil es die erwartete Abkühlung der US-Wirtschaft mit ausgleichen soll. "Die Erwartung lautet, dass die Wachstumsdynamik der Schwellenländer eine Abschwächung der Konjunktur in den USA abfedert", sagt Nicolas Schlotthauer, Fondsmanager bei der DWS. "Sollte China als Schrittmacher für die Schwellenländer ausfallen, dürfte diese Rechnung nicht mehr aufgehen."

Immer mehr Handelswege führen nach China. Für Hongkong und Südkorea zum Beispiel war China im Jahr 2005 das wichtigste Exportziel. Für die Industrienation Japan sowie die aufstrebende Volkswirtschaft Indien steht China als Exportland an zweiter, für Thailand, Indonesien und Vietnam an dritter Stelle.

Für die Mehrzahl der asiatischen Staaten, hat das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) errechnet, gehört die Volksrepublik China zu den drei wichtigsten Abnehmern ihrer Produkte.

"Mit seinem wachsenden Bedarf an 'harten' und 'weichen' Rohstoffen ist China nicht nur für die asiatischen Nachbarn, sondern auch für Schwellenländer in Südamerika und Afrika ein wichtiger Handelspartner", ergänzt Schlotthauer. Eine harte Landung der Volkswirtschaft würde außerdem auf die allgemeine Stimmung am Markt drücken: Verliert der Impulsgeber China rapide an Dynamik, dürften Investoren in den Schwellenländern weltweit künftig zurückhaltender sein.

Der Experte der DWS ist dennoch zuversichtlich, dass China trotz seiner Schwindel erregenden Wachstumsraten genug Mittel hat, um eine drohende Überhitzung der boomenden Volkswirtschaft zu vermeiden.

"Die chinesische Volkswirtschaft ist noch deutlich stärker reguliert", sagt Schlotthauer. "Regierung und Zentralbank verfügen daher über zahlreiche Hebel, um die Inflation in den Griff zu bekommen

Westliche Industrienationen versuchen vor allem durch Erhöhung der Zinsen, eine zu starke Preissteigerung zu vermeiden. Auch in China hat die Zentralbank weitere Zinserhöhungen angedeutet, doch dies ist nicht das einzige Mittel.

"In China dürften die Zinsen moderat ansteigen, doch an massiven Erhöhungen hat die Notenbank kein Interesse, da dies den Binnenkonsum treffen würde", sagt Schlotthauer. Ein langfristiges Ziel der Zentralbank sei statt dessen, die Sparquote nach unten zu bringen und auf diese Weise den inländischen Konsum zu stützen.

Ein Preisanstieg lässt sich auch dadurch bremsen, indem man Höchstpreise etwa für Nahrungsmittel oder für Benzin staatlich festsetzt. In China dürften etwa 25 Prozent der Preise des für die Inflation maßgeblichen Warenkorbes durch den Staat kontrolliert sein - bei seinen aktuellen Überschüssen kann es sich China leisten, einzelne Produkte zu subventionieren und damit dafür zu sorgen, dass Preisschwankungen an den Märkten nicht voll auf die eigene Bevölkerung durchschlagen.

Drittens können Regierung und Zentralbank stärker als hierzulande die Kreditvergabe der Banken steuern: Die Zentralbank hat in den vergangenen Monaten die "Mindestreservebestimmungen" bereits dreimal verschärft und damit durchgesetzt, dass ein wachsender Anteil der Liquidität der einzelnen Kreditinstitute unverzinst bei der Zentralbank einlagern muss.

Auf diese Weise wird dem Wirtschaftskreislauf Geld entzogen und die Kreditvergabe erschwert. Dies ist auch ein Mittel, um Aktien- oder Immobilienspekulationen auf Pump zu erschweren: Die jüngste Rally am Aktienmarkt zieht eine steigende Zahl Spekulanten an.

"China kann dem Wirtschaftskreislauf auf verschiedenen Wegen Liquidität entziehen, ohne gleich die Zinsen massiv nach oben zu setzen", sagt Schlotthauer. Die Inflationsrate, die im März auf 3,3 Prozent gestiegen war, dürfte sich nach Schätzung der DWS zum Jahresende wieder bei 2,5 Prozent einpendeln. "Bei einem Wachstum von 10 bis 11 Prozent könnte China auch mit einer Inflationsrate von 3 Prozent leben", sagt Schlotthauer. Er geht nicht davon aus, dass die jüngsten Inflationsdaten China kurzfristig aus der Bahn werfen werden.

Dennoch: Die Wachsamkeit der Investoren, wenn an den Börsen in Shanghai und Shenzen rote Lämpchen leuchten, ist berechtigt. Zu stark sind die Handelsbeziehungen nicht nur der asiatischen Tigerstaaten, sondern auch der Schwellenländer weltweit zu China. Zu groß ist der Einfluss, den die Boomregion auf die weltweite wirtschaftliche Balance nimmt. Die reale Wirtschaftsleistung Asiens hat sich seit 1980 verdreifacht, ex Japan sogar versechsfacht.

Noch ist der Wachwechsel von der Wall Street zu den asiatischen Börsen nicht vollzogen. Doch Asien ist auf dem Weg dorthin.

 

http://www.manager-magazin.de/geld/geldanlage/0,2828,478511,00.html

 

Andy Xie warns of China crash

Mon Apr 30, 2007 8:09AM EDT By Wee Sui Lee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley former star economist Andy Xie warned of an imminent stock market crash in China -- but still hopes to raise money to invest in the country.

 

Xie, who attracted a wide following while he was at Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research because of his often contrarian views on China's economy and stock markets, also warned that the global boom in equities would be over by 2008 and that this would coincide with a worldwide recession.

 

The recession would start from the United States and spiral down into Asia where exporters would be hit, Xie, 46, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"I think it's going to be bust very soon," Xie said, adding that a combination of excess liquidity, rising inflation and rich valuations would result in a global crash soon.

 

"People will be surprised. When the end comes, it's going to be pretty bad," Xie added.

 

Despite his ultra-bearish view on the markets, Xie told Reuters that he plans to set up an "investment club" that would be open only to people he knows. The club would invest in unlisted firms, would have total funds of $200 to $300 million and would be focused solely on China.

"I'm going to be flexible -- mainly looking at early-stage companies that appeal to domestic demand," Xie said.

 

"I'm looking for backers who know me, so there's a trust element involved and that would make decisions much easier," he added. "I want to be backed by business people who can provide value-add. When they see somebody, or a story, they have an instinct that that's going to work." 

Unlike other private equity funds, Xie said his club would also help provide management consultancy for the companies in which it invests.

 

CHINESE BUBBLE

 

Xie -- who worked at Morgan Stanley for nine years and spent five years as an economist with the World Bank -- resigned from the U.S. investment bank after an email with disparaging comments about Singapore's economic policy was leaked to the public.

 

His email was written shortly after the IMF/World Bank meetings in Singapore in September.

Xie declined to elaborate on his departure, but said he was already considering resigning from the bank before then.

 

He added that he would not join another firm again and does not rule out heading his own fund in future. He sees himself traveling around China, dispensing economic advice.

 

Earlier this month, Xie warned investors of an imminent meltdown in the red-hot China stock market in an article in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP). His comments were published a day before a global sell-off on April 19, which was caused by fears of a rate hike in China.

Xie -- who has a doctorate in economics and a master's degree in civil engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology -- said China was not doing enough to limit the country's frothy stock market. The benchmark Shanghai stock index (.SSEC: Quote, Profile, Research is up about 44 percent since the start of the year and set a new life high on Monday.

 

China's central bank announced on Sunday that it would lift reserve requirements by a further 0.5 percentage point, the fourth reserve hike this year, but Xie said this would not stem the "humungous" excess liquidity in the market.

 

Xie said the Chinese government understood the importance of limiting the bubble in the market, but was reluctant to implement more forceful measures, fearing a political backlash.

"College students are putting their tuition money into the market...stroke-stricken retirees get wheeled into branches of securities firms to trade," Xie said in his SCMP article.

"People are not paying attention to anything else," Xie told Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSSIN15117620070430?pageNumber=1

Im Rückblick war der Februar-Crash ein Null-Event. Der Shanghai Composite steht schon wieder fast 1000 Punkte (25 %) höher!

Was natürlich keinesfalls heißt, dass der "richtige" Absturz nicht trotzdem bald kommt.

China's CSI 300 Index has surged 81 percent this year, after more than doubling in 2006, as investors seek higher returns than the 2.79 percent one-year savings rate at banks. The surge has prompted officials including People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan to warn of a stock market bubble.

Daily turnover jumped almost sevenfold from 2006 to 131.6 billion yuan in the first three months, as investors opened 8.7 million new accounts to trade shares, the People's Bank of China said in its first-quarter monetary policy report on Thursday.

The market boom and improving social security protection will boost spending in an economy that expanded 11.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the report.

The government has granted a total US$13.4 billion in QDII quotas to 15 commercial banks.

At the end of November, Chinese banks sold less than three percent of their QDII quotas. US 10-year government bonds are yielding 4.62 percent a year, while the yuan has appreciated 4.3 percent against the dollar in the past twelve months.

Expanding QDII may reduce pressure on the call for the yuan to appreciate.

South Korea's Kospi index climbed to its fourth consecutive record after Woori Investment & Securities Co. raised its recommendation on shares of Kookmin Bank.

U.S. stocks rose on May 11, enabling the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 Index to jump the most this month.

Beneficiaries

China Mobile, the world's largest mobile-phone operator by users, gained 3.5 percent to HK$73.40. China Life Insurance Co., the nation's biggest insurer, jumped 4.3 percent to HK$25.65.

Commercial banks can invest as much as 50 percent of funds in the qualified domestic institutional investors program, or QDII, in overseas stock markets, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said on May 11. Investors need at least 300,000 yuan ($39,000) to buy such financial products, the regulator said.

China shares are Asia's best performers this year, after an 82 percent jump in the CSI 300 Index. The market is also the most expensive in the region, with the benchmark valued at about 42 times earnings.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks the so-called H shares of 41 mainland companies, has added 4.5 percent. It's valued at about 20 times earnings.

``The move will create arbitrage opportunities by allowing mainland investors to buy cheaper H shares,'' said Thue Isen, who helps manage $1 billion in Asian equities at Bankinvest Group in Singapore.

`Tapering' Inflation

Toyota, the world's largest automaker by market value, added 2.9 percent to 7,360 yen. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world's largest contract-electronics manufacturer, gained 1.3 percent to NT$241.50.

U.S. producer prices excluding food and fuel costs were unchanged for a second month in April, government reports showed on May 11. Federal Reserve policy makers on May 9 left their benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent and said rising prices remain the main risk.

``The numbers suggest inflation might be tapering and raises the possibility the Fed may cut rates, which would lower borrowing costs,'' said James Chua, who helps manage about $200 million at Phillip Capital Management in Singapore.

Nissan Motor Corp., Japan's third-largest automaker by sales, surged 4.4 percent to 1,290 yen. Nissan also advanced after Nomura Securities Co. raised its rating to ``buy'' from ``neutral.''

Metals, Banks

BHP, the world's largest mining company, climbed 1.7 percent to A$31.51. Rio Tinto Group, the third biggest, rose 1.6 percent to A$93.50. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's biggest nickel producer, jumped 2.2 percent to 3,000 yen.

A measure of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, including copper and zinc, rose 0.7 percent on May 11.

``The resources shares are always among the favorites, and those companies that can justify their share prices because of earnings,'' said Jamie Spiteri, head dealer at Shaw Stockbroking Ltd. in Sydney.

Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan's third-largest bank by assets, added 0.9 percent to 1.11 million yen. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., the nation's biggest, advanced 1.5 percent to 1.36 million yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the No. 2, rose 1.4 percent to 782,000 yen.

Sumitomo Mitsui may raise its annual dividend by 3,000 yen a share to 10,000 yen, the Nikkei reported. The newspaper said other banks including Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho may also increase their payouts. All three are scheduled to report earnings next week.

Earnings

Kookmin, South Korea's biggest bank, gained 1.8 percent to 83,700 won. Woori Investment lifted its recommendation on Kookmin to ``buy'' from ``hold,'' in a report today, citing cheap valuations.

Woori's 12-month share-price estimate was raised by 7.8 percent to 95,500 won. The price is low enough for investors to try a ``buy and hold'' approach, wrote Daniel Baek, an analyst.

Shinhan Financial Group Ltd., South Korea's second-largest lender, advanced 1.7 percent to 54,300 won.

Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world's second-largest supplier of chip-making equipment, jumped 5 percent to 8,660 yen. Net income will probably rise 14 percent to 104 billion yen ($865 million) in the year ending March 2008, and sales may gain 5.6 percent to 900 billion yen, the company said May 11, on demand for memory chips used in computers and handsets. The forecasts beat average estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.

`Insatiable Demand'

Singapore Airlines Ltd., the world's largest carrier by market-value, added 3.2 percent to S$19.10. Fourth-quarter profit more than doubled from a year earlier to S$671.3 million ($443 million) as fleet expansion and Asia's economic growth boosted passenger numbers. Earnings beat the S$549 million median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

The airline said it plans to pay a dividend of 85 cents a share and cancel one stock for every 15 held.

``There's an almost insatiable demand for growth and investors have been shifting towards those stocks,'' said Leslie Phang, who manages about $1 billion at Commonwealth Private Bank in Singapore.

Eisai Co., Japan's fourth-largest drugmaker, jumped 11 percent to 6,130 yen, set for its biggest gain in six years. A U.S. court said May 11 after markets closed in Japan that the patent on stomach ulcer drug Aciphex, Eisai's second-best selling product, was enforceable and infringed by Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.  

China's stock market surge is ``not entirely speculative'' as domestically listed companies' earnings rose 34 percent in 2006, Marshall Gittler, chief Asian strategist at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management, said yesterday in a research note. About 60 percent of the companies reported profit increases in the first three months of this year, he wrote.

``One good thing we cannot deny is that earnings growth in the A-share market is very strong,'' Vincent Chan, Beijing-based head of China region research at Credit Suisse Group, said in an interview yesterday. First-quarter earnings for A-share listed companies rose 95 percent from a year earlier, he said.

China's share rally is also driven by low bank deposit rates, which after accounting for inflation, makes it ``natural for people to put money in the stock market,'' said CLSA's Wood. This could prompt the government to threaten to tax stock market gains, he said.

Deposit Rates

Inflation in China held above the benchmark deposit rate for a third month in April. Consumer prices gained 3 percent in April from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said May 14. That's higher than the maximum deposit rate of 2.79 percent that banks are allowed to offer.

Investors opened 4.1 million new securities investment accounts in China in March, according to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Ltd. This brings the total of brokerage accounts in the country to 87.3 million, or 18 percent more than a year earlier.

Share transactions have surged six-fold to 385 million in March, from 77 million a year earlier.

``There's still room for more money to move out of bank deposits and into the equity market,'' said Erwin Sanft, head of China and Hong Kong research at BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Ltd. in Hong Kong, in an interview yesterday.

``The A share market can still double from here, whether it happens this year, or whether it happens next year.''  

Das ist zumindest insofern beruhigend, als sie ihre Reserven (Gesamtwert 1,2 Billionen Dollar, davon ca. 2/3 in Dollar) zumindest nicht in andere Währungen umschichten, was einen Dollar-Kollaps hätte auslösen können.

Ob es weise ist, jetzt noch in P/E zu investieren, sei dahingestellt. 3 Mrd. sind andererseits auch nur ein (bislang) kleiner Betrag.

Nichtsdestotrotz ist das für US-Aktien-Bären eine schlechte Nachricht.


FTD
Chinesen platzieren Milliarden bei Blackstone

China wird drei Mrd. $ beim Finanzinvestor Blackstone anlegen. Das Reich der Mitte verspricht sich davon ein effizienteres Investment als bei US-Staatsanleihen.

Das Geld werde von einer neuen Staatsagentur kommen, die einen Teil der gigantischen Devisenreserven Chinas von 1,2 Billionen $ effizienter investieren solle, berichtete die Financial Times am Samstag. Bisher wird das Geld vor allem in US-Staatsanleihen angelegt.

Mit dem Blackstone-Deal geht China just in dem Moment ins Geschäft mit Finanzinvestoren, da aus der Politik Forderungen nach strengeren Regeln für die bislang nur wenig regulierte Branche zunehmen. Die Finanzinvestoren wie Blackstone, die viele Milliarden an fremdem Geld verwalten, kaufen immer mehr und immer größere Unternehmen. Erst diese Woche machte der Blackstone-Konkurrent Cerberus Schlagzeilen mit der Übernahme von Chrysler. Kritiker werfen den Finanzinvestoren vor, viele Unternehmen nach dem Kauf nur "auszuschlachten", ohne an deren Zukunft zu denken.

China traf am Freitag auch Maßnahmen für eine schnellere Aufwertung seiner Währung und hob die Zinsen an, damit sich die rasant wachsende Wirtschaft etwas abkühlt. Das Land steht unter massivem amerikanischen Druck, den Yuan aufzuwerten, um die chinesischen Exporte in die USA zu drosseln.