zur Futurekurve. Dadurch, daß Contango komplett abgebaut wurde, könnte es zu einem beschleunigten Lagerabbau kommen. Zudem wird es schwieriger für die Shaleproduzenten zukünftige Preise zu hedgen, wenn es auch längerfristig in Backwardation umschlägt (die Monate nach Oktober sind jetzt schon etwas billiger - 12/2018 nur um 20 cent teurer).
'If all shale drillers have to go by is a futures price that is actually lower than today’s price, then the incentive to hedge is much diminished. That could translate into spending cuts, more modest drilling programs, and ultimately, lower oil production in 2018. Without the certainty of locking in production with hedging, it would be much riskier for these drillers to move ahead aggressively. To sum up, a shift into backwardation could slow the growth of shale to some extent. '
Und dann gibt es noch einen Aussage zu längerfristigen trades:
'The one other wrinkle in this argument is the unpredictability and changing nature the futures curve. Shale can start and stop supply so quickly, that the longer-dated futures are much less reliable than they used to be. “Supply was always considered fix…but the reality is supply now can move faster than demand,” Goldman Sachs’ head of commodities research, Jeff Currie, told Bloomberg. “Velocity of supply changes the way these markets trade. When you look at oil…commodities are not anticipatory assets. They can’t price the future, they gotta price today.” Currie argued that the OPEC cuts last November changed the futures curve for the next year, but as the market priced in the expected change, it led to a supply response almost immediately from U.S. shale. In other words, “you can’t be trading oil three to six months out, because the supply can respond…you can’t be trading long-dated oil anymore,” Currie said.'
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/...o-Higher-Oil-Prices.html
Irgendwie kann ich mir aber nicht vorstellen, daß die Goldmänner jetzt keine längerfristigen futures mehr traden.
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