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Meldung des Tages: Das ist kein Gold-Boom, das ist ein Systembruch – und er hat gerade erst begonnen
Bioalkohol als Benzinersatz - Goldgrube oder Hype?
Beiträge:
63
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Die müssen nicht unbedingt die großen Nutznießer sein, es sei denn, sie verlangen für ein spezielles Verfahren Lizenzgebühren.
Vielleicht sind das nur ganz normale Tankhersteller. Die Vergärung ist ja Low-Tech, Schnaps hatten schon die Wikinger.
Die Frage scheint mir daher ähnlich irrelevant wie:
- Wie heißt der Vermieter, der Microsoft die Bürogebäude vermietet...
- Welche Füllfederhalter-Marke verwenden Bestseller-Autoren?
(o.k., ich übertreibe jetzt ein bisschen...)
Vielleicht sind das nur ganz normale Tankhersteller. Die Vergärung ist ja Low-Tech, Schnaps hatten schon die Wikinger.
Die Frage scheint mir daher ähnlich irrelevant wie:
- Wie heißt der Vermieter, der Microsoft die Bürogebäude vermietet...
- Welche Füllfederhalter-Marke verwenden Bestseller-Autoren?
(o.k., ich übertreibe jetzt ein bisschen...)
dass beim kalifornischen "Gold Rush" die Verkäufer von Schaufeln mehr verdienten als der durchschnittliche Goldsucher.
Widerstand in Koalition gegen Steuern auf Biodiesel wächst
dpa-Meldung, 16.05.2006 (10:19)
Berlin - In der großen Koalition wächst der Widerstand gegen die von der Bundesregierung geplante Besteuerung von Biokraftstoffen. Der Staatssekretär im Bundesagrarministerium, Peter Paziorek (CDU) sagte der "Berliner Zeitung" (Dienstag): "Die geplanten Steuersätze sind noch immer zu hoch." Biokraftstoffe brauchten einen Preisvorteil, um auf dem Markt zu bestehen. Dieser Preisvorteil müsse auch über das Jahr 2009 hinaus gegeben sein.
Paziorek unterstützte damit indirekt einen parteiübergreifenden Antrag von zahlreichen Unions- und SPD-Politikern im Bundestag. Ziel des Antrags ist es, die von Bundesfinanzminister Peer Steinbrück (SPD) vorgesehene Besteuerung von Kraftstoffen wie Biodiesel, Bioethanol oder Pflanzenöle abzumildern. Die Regierung hatte ein Abrücken von ihren Plänen aber bereits abgelehnt.
Die Pläne sehen von August dieses Jahres an das Ende der Steuerbefreiung für reine Biokraftstoffe vor. Sie soll von Steuersätzen von 10 Cent je Liter für Biodiesel und 15 Cent für Pflanzenöl abgelöst werden. Von 2010 an soll der normale Steuersatz - beim Biodiesel derzeit 47 Cent - gelten.
dpa-Meldung, 16.05.2006 (10:19)
Berlin - In der großen Koalition wächst der Widerstand gegen die von der Bundesregierung geplante Besteuerung von Biokraftstoffen. Der Staatssekretär im Bundesagrarministerium, Peter Paziorek (CDU) sagte der "Berliner Zeitung" (Dienstag): "Die geplanten Steuersätze sind noch immer zu hoch." Biokraftstoffe brauchten einen Preisvorteil, um auf dem Markt zu bestehen. Dieser Preisvorteil müsse auch über das Jahr 2009 hinaus gegeben sein.
Paziorek unterstützte damit indirekt einen parteiübergreifenden Antrag von zahlreichen Unions- und SPD-Politikern im Bundestag. Ziel des Antrags ist es, die von Bundesfinanzminister Peer Steinbrück (SPD) vorgesehene Besteuerung von Kraftstoffen wie Biodiesel, Bioethanol oder Pflanzenöle abzumildern. Die Regierung hatte ein Abrücken von ihren Plänen aber bereits abgelehnt.
Die Pläne sehen von August dieses Jahres an das Ende der Steuerbefreiung für reine Biokraftstoffe vor. Sie soll von Steuersätzen von 10 Cent je Liter für Biodiesel und 15 Cent für Pflanzenöl abgelöst werden. Von 2010 an soll der normale Steuersatz - beim Biodiesel derzeit 47 Cent - gelten.
Den letzten Absatz hätte man wohl doch intensiver lesen sollen! Das könnte unter Umständen noch ein wenig mehr ROT in einen Teil meines Depots bringen ...
Das würde die Kurse von Pathific Ethanol (PEIX) und Verasun (VSE) einbrechen lassen.
Pacific Ethanol, VeraSun Expansions May Cause Glut, Hurt Profit
20. Juni 2006
New York [Bloomberg] Mark Oberle, chief financial officer of ethanol maker Corn Plus LLP, is sitting out his industry's biggest building boom in a quarter century, and Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates may wish he'd done the same. Within two years, planned expansion by ethanol producers will push U.S. supplies past demand, according to Standard & Poor's. "The danger of a glut is very real,'' said J. Stephan Dolezalek, a partner at San Bruno, California-based VantagePoint Venture Partners, a venture capital firm with stakes in three Midwest distilleries.
Overproduction may make investments such as Gates's $84 million stake in Pacific Ethanol Inc., which hasn't produced fuel yet, go sour. The same may be true for shares of VeraSun Energy Corp., which this week raised $419.8 million, more than expected, in its initial public offering.
Pacific Ethanol, VeraSun Expansions May Cause Glut, Hurt Profit
20. Juni 2006
New York [Bloomberg] Mark Oberle, chief financial officer of ethanol maker Corn Plus LLP, is sitting out his industry's biggest building boom in a quarter century, and Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates may wish he'd done the same. Within two years, planned expansion by ethanol producers will push U.S. supplies past demand, according to Standard & Poor's. "The danger of a glut is very real,'' said J. Stephan Dolezalek, a partner at San Bruno, California-based VantagePoint Venture Partners, a venture capital firm with stakes in three Midwest distilleries.
Overproduction may make investments such as Gates's $84 million stake in Pacific Ethanol Inc., which hasn't produced fuel yet, go sour. The same may be true for shares of VeraSun Energy Corp., which this week raised $419.8 million, more than expected, in its initial public offering.
auf der anderen seite weiss ich nicht, wo die kritische masse liegt,
damit sich ethanol ohne subventionen lohnt
in den emerging markets wie brasilien scheint es sich ja zu lohnen, die haben 60% alle neuwagen mit reinen ethanol verbrennern ausgestattet
die lösung, die wir alle suchen, ist eine für afrika oder andere großen an wüstengebiete angrenzenden staaten
die haben ja auch keine rohstoffe zur ethanolherstellung
daher denke ich, es müsste was geben, was aus salzwasser wasserstoff macht
damit sich ethanol ohne subventionen lohnt
in den emerging markets wie brasilien scheint es sich ja zu lohnen, die haben 60% alle neuwagen mit reinen ethanol verbrennern ausgestattet
die lösung, die wir alle suchen, ist eine für afrika oder andere großen an wüstengebiete angrenzenden staaten
die haben ja auch keine rohstoffe zur ethanolherstellung
daher denke ich, es müsste was geben, was aus salzwasser wasserstoff macht
entsteht ja dem obigen Text zufolge aufgrund von Überkapazitäten im Ethanol-Sektor: Da der Sektor boomt, bauen Pacific Ethanol, Verasun und Archer Daniels - in Überschätzung der Perspektiven - mehr Anlagen, als benötigt werden. So entsteht ein Überangebot an Ethanol, das auf den Ethanol-Preis drückt. Dies könnte dann sogar Druck auf den Ölpreis ausüben, sofern die Ethanol-Wirtschaft dann bereits mit nennenswertem Anteil an der Kraftstoffversorgung Fuß gefasst hat. Warum sollte jemand teures Öl kaufen, wenn er mit billigem Ethanol genauso gut fährt?
Das heißt also: Nicht billiges Öl drückt auf das Ethanol (was prinzipiell allerdings auch möglich wäre), sondern billiges Ethanol drückt auf das Öl.
Für Umweltschützer und Ökopaxen erfüllte sich damit ein lang gehegter Wunschtraum. Fast alle Kriege der letzten Jahrzehnte wurden wegen Öl geführt, auch der letzte Irakkrieg.
Das heißt also: Nicht billiges Öl drückt auf das Ethanol (was prinzipiell allerdings auch möglich wäre), sondern billiges Ethanol drückt auf das Öl.
Für Umweltschützer und Ökopaxen erfüllte sich damit ein lang gehegter Wunschtraum. Fast alle Kriege der letzten Jahrzehnte wurden wegen Öl geführt, auch der letzte Irakkrieg.
aber machen sich die ethanolhersteller denn dann nicht den eigenen markt kaputt
wenn das stimmt , was du sagst, hiesse dass , es würde ein preiskampf zwischen ethanol und öl geben
oder ist das die strategie der amis, die wissen, dass sie den nahen osten nie befrieden können und auch nicht wollen, dass sie irgendwann davon abhängig werden und, ist dass der grund, warum bill gates in paci. eth investiert ist, weil er weiss was abhängigkeit heisst, abhängig von einem system, dass er selbst geschaffen hat und nun will er ein anderes system unterstützen, dass ethanolsystem ??
heisst ethanol befreiung von den saudis, heisst das das
dann müsste man ja wie verrückt in ethanol investieren wie bill gates
oder ist das auch alles getürke ??
wenn das stimmt , was du sagst, hiesse dass , es würde ein preiskampf zwischen ethanol und öl geben
oder ist das die strategie der amis, die wissen, dass sie den nahen osten nie befrieden können und auch nicht wollen, dass sie irgendwann davon abhängig werden und, ist dass der grund, warum bill gates in paci. eth investiert ist, weil er weiss was abhängigkeit heisst, abhängig von einem system, dass er selbst geschaffen hat und nun will er ein anderes system unterstützen, dass ethanolsystem ??
heisst ethanol befreiung von den saudis, heisst das das
dann müsste man ja wie verrückt in ethanol investieren wie bill gates
oder ist das auch alles getürke ??
Der Autor, J. J. Cramer, ist zwar oft ein Kontraindikator. Er ist jedoch meistens bullisch. Wenn er bärisch ist wie bei Ethanol (und dazu noch antizyklisch, weil er empfiehlt, in die Stärke hinein zu verkaufen), könnte er diesmal Recht behalten.
Cramers vergleicht Ethanol mit dem Hype bei den Dot.coms, Energie- und Solaraktien. Ich hatte im Eingangsposting ja schon den Vergleich zum Linux-Hype (LNUX) Ende 1999 gezogen.
Investing
Ethanol: Live Fast, Die Young, Take Profits
By Jim Cramer
6/15/2006 2:27 PM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/comment/investing/10292016.html
Editor's note: This column is an update of a portion of the "Mad Money" episode that aired June 14. Click here to read the full Mad Money Recap for that episode.
It's time to take a bow and clear out of the ethanol stocks -- all of them, and as soon as is reasonable. Use limit orders, sell incrementally -- don't just dump everything at once immediately -- but be aware the ethanol fad is done.
Wednesday VeraSun Energy (VSE:NYSE) came public. The stock was up huge from where they priced it. You've gotta sell, and then sell it again. Look, they even had corn outside the New York Stock Exchange -- that's no good.
On Mad Money, we want you to raise less corn and more hell, like Mary Lease, or maybe just raise less corn and more money.
VeraSun is just the first sign you need to sell. Soon Aventine, another ethanol company, will come public, and then Hawkeye. The first company to take itself public in a speculative bubble goes up big -- that's VeraSun. Then the next, be it Hawkeye or Aventine, which are both smaller, more speculative and in the case of Hawkeye, worse plays, goes up a little. Then the third one out on a speculative run turns out to be a dog -- kind of like Vonage (VG:NYSE), only not quite as bad. At that point, all of a sudden the market will finally be overwhelmed with sellers of ethanol stocks, and just like anything else, when supply outstrips demand, prices go down.
All these ethanol stocks are up today; now is the time to take profits. Sell into the strength, because it won't last much longer.
Ethanol is in the last stage of a speculative fad's life cycle. I know this because we see it all the time in these hot sectors.
We saw it with the dot-coms in 1999, with the power merchants in 2000, with the oil service names last year and into this year and with solar power. Now ethanol is following the same pattern.
The cycle is familiar. You start with the highest-quality stocks in the sector. Here it was Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE), which I recommended last August, and you could've made a lot of money in it. Then we took up The Andersons (ANDE:Nasdaq) , the grain elevator guys, and that made you a lot of money, too. Then we took up MGP Ingredients (MGPI:Nasdaq), up big today, but Tuesday night their COO came on the show and told us we'd gotten ahead of ourselves.
The CEO says that and the stock is up? You got lucky that we're at the end of this ethanol speculation cycle. See, now everyone else is starting to pile in; that's the time for you to get out.
And now the investment bankers are in on the game. That's how supply gets created; they bring these ethanol companies public, and too many names will eventually spoil the sector because there will just be too much supply. I was out with an ethanol executive the other night who said he was taking more meetings with I-bankers than with customers. That's a bad sign. These ethanol companies are like high-school kids being recruited for big-league ball. It's ridiculous.
So don't believe the hype. VeraSun, up huge today, means sell. If you'd bought the dot-com hype at the height of the speculative bubble, you'd have been crushed. Or just look at solar power since March; the same thing happened there that's happening with ethanol now. The market got overwhelmed with supply, too many solar companies, and the speculative bubble ended. The stocks came down.
You can either go crazy for ethanol now, or gracefully take your profits and wait for the next speculative bubble. I recommend the second course. See, ethanol was never, and probably will never, be all that serious an alternative to gasoline.
[Da bin ich mir nicht so sicher, siehe Brasilien - A.L.]
Right now it accounts for maybe 3% of fuel use in America. You need to use tons of natural gas to make it,
[meint er zum Heizen der Tanks??? Ethanol wird durch Vergären von MAIS gewonnen! - A.L.]
...and that means any increase in natural gas prices will just crush these ethanol guys. And finally, since it corrodes pipelines, you need to transport it by train or truck or barge, not pipeline.
The only place they ever really implemented ethanol as fuel was in Brazil, but that was all about making money for the sugar-cane industry. There were maybe five families of rancheros who I think practically owned the Brazilian government, the way our government is of, by and for the corporations, and they wanted to make more money off sugar cane, so they made Brazilian autos run on ethanol, which can be made from sugar.
Our corporate oligarchy operates a little bit differently in America. We're more fickle [wankelmütig], so the ethanol stocks are going down. I've got nothing against VeraSun; it's a great company with great growth, but that's just not the point.
All these stocks -- ADM, The Andersons, even Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) -- they're not bad companies. But they're about to stop being hot for good, and the selloff we've had in these last three weeks does not represent a buying opportunity.
Bottom line: When you've got corn out in front of the NYSE, you know that ethanol's become too celebrated and too speculated on to make you more money. It's time to get out of Dodge with ethanol. Sell into strength today, so you won't have to sell into weakness in maybe a week, or a month, but not much longer than that.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider MGP Ingredients to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Cramers vergleicht Ethanol mit dem Hype bei den Dot.coms, Energie- und Solaraktien. Ich hatte im Eingangsposting ja schon den Vergleich zum Linux-Hype (LNUX) Ende 1999 gezogen.
Investing
Ethanol: Live Fast, Die Young, Take Profits
By Jim Cramer
6/15/2006 2:27 PM EDT
URL: www.thestreet.com/comment/investing/10292016.html
Editor's note: This column is an update of a portion of the "Mad Money" episode that aired June 14. Click here to read the full Mad Money Recap for that episode.
It's time to take a bow and clear out of the ethanol stocks -- all of them, and as soon as is reasonable. Use limit orders, sell incrementally -- don't just dump everything at once immediately -- but be aware the ethanol fad is done.
Wednesday VeraSun Energy (VSE:NYSE) came public. The stock was up huge from where they priced it. You've gotta sell, and then sell it again. Look, they even had corn outside the New York Stock Exchange -- that's no good.
On Mad Money, we want you to raise less corn and more hell, like Mary Lease, or maybe just raise less corn and more money.
VeraSun is just the first sign you need to sell. Soon Aventine, another ethanol company, will come public, and then Hawkeye. The first company to take itself public in a speculative bubble goes up big -- that's VeraSun. Then the next, be it Hawkeye or Aventine, which are both smaller, more speculative and in the case of Hawkeye, worse plays, goes up a little. Then the third one out on a speculative run turns out to be a dog -- kind of like Vonage (VG:NYSE), only not quite as bad. At that point, all of a sudden the market will finally be overwhelmed with sellers of ethanol stocks, and just like anything else, when supply outstrips demand, prices go down.
All these ethanol stocks are up today; now is the time to take profits. Sell into the strength, because it won't last much longer.
Ethanol is in the last stage of a speculative fad's life cycle. I know this because we see it all the time in these hot sectors.
We saw it with the dot-coms in 1999, with the power merchants in 2000, with the oil service names last year and into this year and with solar power. Now ethanol is following the same pattern.
The cycle is familiar. You start with the highest-quality stocks in the sector. Here it was Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE), which I recommended last August, and you could've made a lot of money in it. Then we took up The Andersons (ANDE:Nasdaq) , the grain elevator guys, and that made you a lot of money, too. Then we took up MGP Ingredients (MGPI:Nasdaq), up big today, but Tuesday night their COO came on the show and told us we'd gotten ahead of ourselves.
The CEO says that and the stock is up? You got lucky that we're at the end of this ethanol speculation cycle. See, now everyone else is starting to pile in; that's the time for you to get out.
And now the investment bankers are in on the game. That's how supply gets created; they bring these ethanol companies public, and too many names will eventually spoil the sector because there will just be too much supply. I was out with an ethanol executive the other night who said he was taking more meetings with I-bankers than with customers. That's a bad sign. These ethanol companies are like high-school kids being recruited for big-league ball. It's ridiculous.
So don't believe the hype. VeraSun, up huge today, means sell. If you'd bought the dot-com hype at the height of the speculative bubble, you'd have been crushed. Or just look at solar power since March; the same thing happened there that's happening with ethanol now. The market got overwhelmed with supply, too many solar companies, and the speculative bubble ended. The stocks came down.
You can either go crazy for ethanol now, or gracefully take your profits and wait for the next speculative bubble. I recommend the second course. See, ethanol was never, and probably will never, be all that serious an alternative to gasoline.
[Da bin ich mir nicht so sicher, siehe Brasilien - A.L.]
Right now it accounts for maybe 3% of fuel use in America. You need to use tons of natural gas to make it,
[meint er zum Heizen der Tanks??? Ethanol wird durch Vergären von MAIS gewonnen! - A.L.]
...and that means any increase in natural gas prices will just crush these ethanol guys. And finally, since it corrodes pipelines, you need to transport it by train or truck or barge, not pipeline.
The only place they ever really implemented ethanol as fuel was in Brazil, but that was all about making money for the sugar-cane industry. There were maybe five families of rancheros who I think practically owned the Brazilian government, the way our government is of, by and for the corporations, and they wanted to make more money off sugar cane, so they made Brazilian autos run on ethanol, which can be made from sugar.
Our corporate oligarchy operates a little bit differently in America. We're more fickle [wankelmütig], so the ethanol stocks are going down. I've got nothing against VeraSun; it's a great company with great growth, but that's just not the point.
All these stocks -- ADM, The Andersons, even Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) -- they're not bad companies. But they're about to stop being hot for good, and the selloff we've had in these last three weeks does not represent a buying opportunity.
Bottom line: When you've got corn out in front of the NYSE, you know that ethanol's become too celebrated and too speculated on to make you more money. It's time to get out of Dodge with ethanol. Sell into strength today, so you won't have to sell into weakness in maybe a week, or a month, but not much longer than that.
Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider MGP Ingredients to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Die geplante Besteuerung von Biodiesel bringt Biopetrol und EOP Biodiesel unter Druck. Biopetrol verliert bis zu 40 %
www.handelsblatt.com/Boerse/Boerse-Inside/.../sfn/buildhbi/cn/
GoArt!200007,200029,1097095/SH/0/depot/0/kurssturz:-biopetrol-aktie-bricht-um-42-
prozent-ein.html
www.handelsblatt.com/Boerse/Boerse-Inside/.../sfn/buildhbi/cn/
GoArt!200007,200029,1097095/SH/0/depot/0/kurssturz:-biopetrol-aktie-bricht-um-42-
prozent-ein.html
das die Biodiesel-Steuer Biopetrol schaden würde, hatte ich schon am 14. Juni geahnt:
http://www.ariva.de/board/231113?pnr=2614276#jump2614276
http://www.ariva.de/board/231113?pnr=2614276#jump2614276
Offenbar auf diesen Artikel hin stieg Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) heute um 8 Prozent. Die Aktie ist angeblich am stärksten unterbewertet im Sektor.
Technical Analysis
Ethanol Plays Regain Energy
By Richard Suttmeier
TheStreet.com
6/21/2006 4:04 PM EDT
The media and investors have paid considerable attention lately to the prospects for making money by investing in stocks involved in the production of ethanol. My models shows that four of these stocks in particular could grow into winners.
Interest in ethanol investments resurfaced last week with the initial public offering of VeraSun Energy (VSE:NYSE) , which began trading on June 14. VeraSun was priced at $23 and traded as high as $30.75 on its first day, but faded to a low of $24.50 last Thursday. While my models do not have enough data or information to evaluate IPOs, it appears that this one-week range is tradeable.
Tuesday, the American Stock Exchange listed Xethanol (XNL:Amex) , another play on ethanol. As with VeraSun, I can't evaluate this new ethanol play until it has a trading history, but it is worth making note of, despite its small market capitalization. Xethanol operates two ethanol production facilities in Iowa.
At the May 16 meeting of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events, Delos Smith, president and chief economist at Delos Smith & Associates, was particularly concerned about energy. In his view, the problem with energy is that global demand for crude oil has reached 85 million barrels a day and supplies are tight. With 235 million cars on the road, U.S. refineries are running at full capacity, and 40% of the output in the U.S. comes from two cities that could be hard hit during the hurricane season. Delos sees a big future in ethanol to solve our energy needs. Delos said that instead of paying farmers not to grow corn through subsidies, we should encourage it and build the facilities to convert it to ethanol, citing Brazil's successful use of sugar-based ethanol to reduce oil use.
My models show that Nymex crude oil peaked at $75.35 back on April 21 and has been trading sideways to down since then. Ethanol stocks have declined with crude oil, as the hype around oil's peak (and need for an oil replacement) has subsided. The weekly chart profile for crude oil is negative, with support this week at $66.43 and the five-week MMA at $70.34. My monthly and semiannual supports are $64.52 and $64.58, with quarterly resistance at $75.94. With crude oil likely to stay in an elevated trading range, I expect ethanol stocks should regain their energy.
My models indicate that investors will want to focus their research efforts on these four stocks:
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) rates a hold with ValuEngine and is 14.4% overvalued with fair value at $34.44. After reaching a high of $46.71 on May 11, ADM declined to $37.45 on June 13, testing my monthly value level of $37.94. If ADM can close above its 50-day simple moving average of $40.12, it has the possibility of rising to my weekly risky level at $43.89.
Given its buy rating from ValuEngine and the fact that it's trading below fair value, The Andersons (ANDE:Nasdaq) looks like an attractive addition to an alternative-energy portfolio, with shares above Tuesday's low of $70.01. The stock is currently 9.8% undervalued, with fair value at $81.08. The Andersons traded down to $70.01 on Tuesday after reaching a high of $125.40 on May 4. But given its volatile performance, a break to a new low could indicate risk to the 200-day simple moving average of $58.67, which is the next buy level.
MGP Ingredients (MGPI:Nasdaq) traded down to $20.01 on June 15 after a high of $36.08 on May 11. If it breaks to a new low for the move, it's likely to see downside is to its 200-day simple moving average of $16, which would make this ethanol play undervalued. Currently, MGP is 14.9% overvalued, with fair value at $18. My models show possible upside to my monthly risky level of $22.78. According to ValuEngine, the stock rates a hold.
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) is the most undervalued of my four picks, at 25.5% undervalued, with fair value at $28.14. At this level of discount, adding shares of Pacific Ethanol looks smart, particularly in anticipation of the stock rebounding to my monthly pivot of $25.43. The downside is to its 200-day simple moving average of $17.37, which is the next level that looks buyable. The stock is rated a hold according to ValuEngine and has traded down to $20.05 from a May 11 high of $44.50.
Another way to get exposure to this facet of alternative energy is to buy energy giants that are entering the sector. These companies have deep pockets and will join to compete for a major share in the development, production and delivery of alternative energy. For example, BP (BP:NYSE ADR) and DuPont (DD:NYSE) just announced a partnership to develop biofuels.
Perhaps the best way to play ethanol is to buy a farm in Iowa!
Technical Analysis
Ethanol Plays Regain Energy
By Richard Suttmeier
TheStreet.com
6/21/2006 4:04 PM EDT
The media and investors have paid considerable attention lately to the prospects for making money by investing in stocks involved in the production of ethanol. My models shows that four of these stocks in particular could grow into winners.
Interest in ethanol investments resurfaced last week with the initial public offering of VeraSun Energy (VSE:NYSE) , which began trading on June 14. VeraSun was priced at $23 and traded as high as $30.75 on its first day, but faded to a low of $24.50 last Thursday. While my models do not have enough data or information to evaluate IPOs, it appears that this one-week range is tradeable.
Tuesday, the American Stock Exchange listed Xethanol (XNL:Amex) , another play on ethanol. As with VeraSun, I can't evaluate this new ethanol play until it has a trading history, but it is worth making note of, despite its small market capitalization. Xethanol operates two ethanol production facilities in Iowa.
At the May 16 meeting of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events, Delos Smith, president and chief economist at Delos Smith & Associates, was particularly concerned about energy. In his view, the problem with energy is that global demand for crude oil has reached 85 million barrels a day and supplies are tight. With 235 million cars on the road, U.S. refineries are running at full capacity, and 40% of the output in the U.S. comes from two cities that could be hard hit during the hurricane season. Delos sees a big future in ethanol to solve our energy needs. Delos said that instead of paying farmers not to grow corn through subsidies, we should encourage it and build the facilities to convert it to ethanol, citing Brazil's successful use of sugar-based ethanol to reduce oil use.
My models show that Nymex crude oil peaked at $75.35 back on April 21 and has been trading sideways to down since then. Ethanol stocks have declined with crude oil, as the hype around oil's peak (and need for an oil replacement) has subsided. The weekly chart profile for crude oil is negative, with support this week at $66.43 and the five-week MMA at $70.34. My monthly and semiannual supports are $64.52 and $64.58, with quarterly resistance at $75.94. With crude oil likely to stay in an elevated trading range, I expect ethanol stocks should regain their energy.
My models indicate that investors will want to focus their research efforts on these four stocks:
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) rates a hold with ValuEngine and is 14.4% overvalued with fair value at $34.44. After reaching a high of $46.71 on May 11, ADM declined to $37.45 on June 13, testing my monthly value level of $37.94. If ADM can close above its 50-day simple moving average of $40.12, it has the possibility of rising to my weekly risky level at $43.89.
Given its buy rating from ValuEngine and the fact that it's trading below fair value, The Andersons (ANDE:Nasdaq) looks like an attractive addition to an alternative-energy portfolio, with shares above Tuesday's low of $70.01. The stock is currently 9.8% undervalued, with fair value at $81.08. The Andersons traded down to $70.01 on Tuesday after reaching a high of $125.40 on May 4. But given its volatile performance, a break to a new low could indicate risk to the 200-day simple moving average of $58.67, which is the next buy level.
MGP Ingredients (MGPI:Nasdaq) traded down to $20.01 on June 15 after a high of $36.08 on May 11. If it breaks to a new low for the move, it's likely to see downside is to its 200-day simple moving average of $16, which would make this ethanol play undervalued. Currently, MGP is 14.9% overvalued, with fair value at $18. My models show possible upside to my monthly risky level of $22.78. According to ValuEngine, the stock rates a hold.
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX:Nasdaq) is the most undervalued of my four picks, at 25.5% undervalued, with fair value at $28.14. At this level of discount, adding shares of Pacific Ethanol looks smart, particularly in anticipation of the stock rebounding to my monthly pivot of $25.43. The downside is to its 200-day simple moving average of $17.37, which is the next level that looks buyable. The stock is rated a hold according to ValuEngine and has traded down to $20.05 from a May 11 high of $44.50.
Another way to get exposure to this facet of alternative energy is to buy energy giants that are entering the sector. These companies have deep pockets and will join to compete for a major share in the development, production and delivery of alternative energy. For example, BP (BP:NYSE ADR) and DuPont (DD:NYSE) just announced a partnership to develop biofuels.
Perhaps the best way to play ethanol is to buy a farm in Iowa!
Die heute neu emittierte Ethanol-Aktie Aventine Renewable (AVR, NYSE) floppt. Emissionpreis war 43 Dollar. Zur Eröffnung stand sie bei nur 41,75. Verasun (VSE), eine vor zwei Wochen emittierte Ethnanol-Aktie, war am ersten Tag noch 30 % gestiegen. Demnächst kommt mit Hawkeye noch eine dritte. So wie der Markt jetzt abgegrast wird bzw. schon ist, dürfte die ebenfalls nicht laufen.
So ähnlich muss es Anfang des letzten Jahrhunderts gewesen sein, als in USA 30 private Eisenbahn-AGs miteinander konkurrierten.
Oder bei den 200 Dot.coms Ende der 1990-er. Wer kennt noch WEBVAN (Friede ihrer Asche...) ;-))
IPO REPORT
Aventine Renewable IPO loses steam
By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:31 AM ET Jun 29, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc. lost steam in the open market, even after the ethanol maker priced at the top of its increased range and added shares to the deal.
Aventine Renewable (AVR) opened at $41.75, below its $43 price. The stock changed hands at $41.70 on volume of 3 million shares in recent action.
Investors tapped the brakes on Aventine after the company priced at the upper end of its $40 to $43 range, which had been increased from $37 to $41 a share as institutional buyers lined up for the stock.
The company raised $389.5 million by offering 9.06 million shares with lead underwriter Banc of America.
The size of the IPO was increased by a million shares from its earlier level of about 8 million shares.
Aventine marks the second of three ethanol makers on deck this summer after Verasun Energy (VSE) priced at $23 a share on June 14. Shares of Verasun closed at $27.18 on Wednesday.
Hawkeye Holdings is still to come.
Although Aventine is a newcomer to the stock market, it features some familiar names as shareholders.
Metalmark, a private-equity firm established by former principals at Morgan Stanley Capital Partners (MS), owns a big stake in the company. CEO Ronald H. Miller, 57, has been with the company since 1981, serving in a number of positions before moving up to his current title in 2003.
In the three months ended March 31, Aventine said that net income doubled to $12.2 million on revenue of $314 million, compared with net income of $6.6 million on revenue of $197 million in the year-ago period.
Interest in ethanol has been high, given that it's seen as an alternative to crude oil.
Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) is the largest ethanol producer in the U.S. with annual production of 1 billion gallons.
While tough market conditions are forcing some IPOs into discounting or pulling their deals entirely, the right offerings are catching strong interest.
Aventine marks the second IPO of the week with lofty pricing after J. Crew (JCG) rallied nearly 30% in its first day Wednesday. J. Crew fell 4 cents to $25.51 on Thursday...
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.
So ähnlich muss es Anfang des letzten Jahrhunderts gewesen sein, als in USA 30 private Eisenbahn-AGs miteinander konkurrierten.
Oder bei den 200 Dot.coms Ende der 1990-er. Wer kennt noch WEBVAN (Friede ihrer Asche...) ;-))
IPO REPORT
Aventine Renewable IPO loses steam
By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:31 AM ET Jun 29, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc. lost steam in the open market, even after the ethanol maker priced at the top of its increased range and added shares to the deal.
Aventine Renewable (AVR) opened at $41.75, below its $43 price. The stock changed hands at $41.70 on volume of 3 million shares in recent action.
Investors tapped the brakes on Aventine after the company priced at the upper end of its $40 to $43 range, which had been increased from $37 to $41 a share as institutional buyers lined up for the stock.
The company raised $389.5 million by offering 9.06 million shares with lead underwriter Banc of America.
The size of the IPO was increased by a million shares from its earlier level of about 8 million shares.
Aventine marks the second of three ethanol makers on deck this summer after Verasun Energy (VSE) priced at $23 a share on June 14. Shares of Verasun closed at $27.18 on Wednesday.
Hawkeye Holdings is still to come.
Although Aventine is a newcomer to the stock market, it features some familiar names as shareholders.
Metalmark, a private-equity firm established by former principals at Morgan Stanley Capital Partners (MS), owns a big stake in the company. CEO Ronald H. Miller, 57, has been with the company since 1981, serving in a number of positions before moving up to his current title in 2003.
In the three months ended March 31, Aventine said that net income doubled to $12.2 million on revenue of $314 million, compared with net income of $6.6 million on revenue of $197 million in the year-ago period.
Interest in ethanol has been high, given that it's seen as an alternative to crude oil.
Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) is the largest ethanol producer in the U.S. with annual production of 1 billion gallons.
While tough market conditions are forcing some IPOs into discounting or pulling their deals entirely, the right offerings are catching strong interest.
Aventine marks the second IPO of the week with lofty pricing after J. Crew (JCG) rallied nearly 30% in its first day Wednesday. J. Crew fell 4 cents to $25.51 on Thursday...
Steve Gelsi is a reporter for MarketWatch in New York.
Pacific Ethanol verliert 1,3 % auf 20,17 USD.
Beides ist eine Reaktion auf die heute in die Hose gegangene Erstemission der Ethanol-Aktie AVR (P. 40): Der Ausgabepreis betrug 43 Dollar. Zurzeit steht AVR bei 38,50.
Beides ist eine Reaktion auf die heute in die Hose gegangene Erstemission der Ethanol-Aktie AVR (P. 40): Der Ausgabepreis betrug 43 Dollar. Zurzeit steht AVR bei 38,50.
Der Intraday-Chart der heutigen Ethanol-Neuemission Aventine (AVR, Details in P. 40) spricht Bände: Wer für 43 Dollar gezeichnet hat, liegt bereits 8,8 % im Minus.
J. J. Cramer (TheStreet.com) hatte dies in P. 36 (22. Juni) korrekt vorhergesagt.
J. J. Cramer (TheStreet.com) hatte dies in P. 36 (22. Juni) korrekt vorhergesagt.
(Verkleinert auf 96%) 
Energy
Aventine's Nonrenewable Trade
By Frank Curzio
6/29/2006
Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR:NYSE), the fourth-largest domestic producer and leading distributor of ethanol, made its debut today on the NYSE, and while the stock has some short-term trading potential, investors should be wary of the long-term picture.
The deal was led by Banc of America (BAC:NYSE), Friedman Billings Ramsey (FBR:NYSE) and Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE), and raised $389.5 million through the sale of 9.06 million shares at $43 per share, which was at the top of the expected range of $40 to $43, which had been raised from $37 to $40. On Thursday, shares were recently trading at $38.93, down $4.07, or 9.47%.
Short term, Aventine could perform well, as its initial public offering comes at a time when the ethanol phenomenon is running at full speed. Headlines in nearly every financial news publication cite the growing need for ethanol-based fuels to offset the high price of crude oil.
Robert Miller, president and CEO of Aventine, appeared on CNBC this morning and explained why he believes ethanol is the fuel of the future and how his company is at the forefront of the new revolution.
In fact, it was quite interesting that The Wall Street Journal had a few positive mentions of ethanol today, including a plea from the CEOs of the Big Three U.S. automakers urging Congress to speed up efforts to spread the use and availability of ethanol-based fuels.
However, there are some risks that should be noted before purchasing shares of Aventine for the longer term.
First, Aventine actually buys ethanol from one of its chief competitors, Vera Sun Energy (VSE:NYSE) , another top ethanol producer, which saw its share price surge 30% on its first day of trading back on June 15. Of the 529 million gallons of ethanol that were marketed and distributed by Aventine in 2005, 230 million gallons were bought from VeraSun.
This is staggering, and raises a bright red flag. VeraSun has announced it will terminate its marketing alliance with Aventine on March 31, 2007. Aventine believes that its deals with new alliance partners and an increase in the volume of purchase and resale activity can make up for the loss of VeraSun.
Second, according to the company's S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, insiders sold 1.4 million shares on the offering. Insider selling is not uncommon during an IPO, but the number of Aventine shares being sold could be viewed as shady.
I believe the ethanol phenomenon will continue to dominate the headlines in the short term. However, based on the risks outlined, I would use caution in purchasing shares of Aventine for the long term. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) is a more conservative play on ethanol, and a much better company. It is the No. 1 ethanol producer (its biofuels division includes ethanol), yet ethanol only accounts for 19% of the company's operating profits.
Aventine's Nonrenewable Trade
By Frank Curzio
6/29/2006
Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR:NYSE), the fourth-largest domestic producer and leading distributor of ethanol, made its debut today on the NYSE, and while the stock has some short-term trading potential, investors should be wary of the long-term picture.
The deal was led by Banc of America (BAC:NYSE), Friedman Billings Ramsey (FBR:NYSE) and Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE), and raised $389.5 million through the sale of 9.06 million shares at $43 per share, which was at the top of the expected range of $40 to $43, which had been raised from $37 to $40. On Thursday, shares were recently trading at $38.93, down $4.07, or 9.47%.
Short term, Aventine could perform well, as its initial public offering comes at a time when the ethanol phenomenon is running at full speed. Headlines in nearly every financial news publication cite the growing need for ethanol-based fuels to offset the high price of crude oil.
Robert Miller, president and CEO of Aventine, appeared on CNBC this morning and explained why he believes ethanol is the fuel of the future and how his company is at the forefront of the new revolution.
In fact, it was quite interesting that The Wall Street Journal had a few positive mentions of ethanol today, including a plea from the CEOs of the Big Three U.S. automakers urging Congress to speed up efforts to spread the use and availability of ethanol-based fuels.
However, there are some risks that should be noted before purchasing shares of Aventine for the longer term.
First, Aventine actually buys ethanol from one of its chief competitors, Vera Sun Energy (VSE:NYSE) , another top ethanol producer, which saw its share price surge 30% on its first day of trading back on June 15. Of the 529 million gallons of ethanol that were marketed and distributed by Aventine in 2005, 230 million gallons were bought from VeraSun.
This is staggering, and raises a bright red flag. VeraSun has announced it will terminate its marketing alliance with Aventine on March 31, 2007. Aventine believes that its deals with new alliance partners and an increase in the volume of purchase and resale activity can make up for the loss of VeraSun.
Second, according to the company's S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, insiders sold 1.4 million shares on the offering. Insider selling is not uncommon during an IPO, but the number of Aventine shares being sold could be viewed as shady.
I believe the ethanol phenomenon will continue to dominate the headlines in the short term. However, based on the risks outlined, I would use caution in purchasing shares of Aventine for the long term. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM:NYSE) is a more conservative play on ethanol, and a much better company. It is the No. 1 ethanol producer (its biofuels division includes ethanol), yet ethanol only accounts for 19% of the company's operating profits.
Hallo,
hier wurde über Südzucker was geschrieben.
Ich habe nicht verstanden: stellt Südzucker Ethanol her oder verkauft nur Rohstoff für die Herstellung.
hier wurde über Südzucker was geschrieben.
Ich habe nicht verstanden: stellt Südzucker Ethanol her oder verkauft nur Rohstoff für die Herstellung.
stellt Ethanol selber her und ist der größte deutsche Ethanolproduzent sowie der zweitgrößte in Europa. Der größte europäische Hersteller ist die spanischen Firma Abengoa, die wiederum weltweit die Nr. 2 ist nach dem Branchenprimus Archer Daniels Midland (USA).
Danke für die ausführliche Antwort.
Du scheinst dich auf dem Gebiet Ethanol auszukennen, wie sieht es deiner Meinung nach in Richtung China, Indien aus.
Gibt es da interessante Unternehmen?
Denn ich glaube Asiens Hunger nach Energie wird in Zukunft mehr wachsen als der der Europa oder USA.
Du scheinst dich auf dem Gebiet Ethanol auszukennen, wie sieht es deiner Meinung nach in Richtung China, Indien aus.
Gibt es da interessante Unternehmen?
Denn ich glaube Asiens Hunger nach Energie wird in Zukunft mehr wachsen als der der Europa oder USA.
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/.../AR2006063001480.html
kennt Ihr den Artikel schon ?
Erwartet keine Wunderdinge in Ländern in denen der Vebrauch explodiert, dort wird es andere Lösungen geben...
Viel Glück.
kennt Ihr den Artikel schon ?
Erwartet keine Wunderdinge in Ländern in denen der Vebrauch explodiert, dort wird es andere Lösungen geben...
Viel Glück.
Der Artikel verkennt, dass Ethanol bereits als Benzin-Beimischung die Ölabhängigkeit verringert, 100 prozentiger Ersatz ist daher gar nicht nötig. Außerdem ist Mais, der in USA für die Ethanol-Gewinnung verwendete Rohstoff, nicht der ergibste. Zuckerrohr bringt pro Hektar Anbaufläche höhere Erträge. Weiterhin arbeiten Wissenschaftler an Verfahren, die Ethanol-Ausbeute aus den Saaten zu erhöhen (andere Hefen usw.). Da steckt also auch biotechnologisch was drin.
Schließlich lässt sich Ethanol wie Öl auf Schiffen transportieren, die Pflanzen können daher sonstwo (Brachland, Sibirien etc.) angebaut werden.
Schließlich lässt sich Ethanol wie Öl auf Schiffen transportieren, die Pflanzen können daher sonstwo (Brachland, Sibirien etc.) angebaut werden.
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