mittlwerweil schon bei 119,20...und die ersten Interventionssgerüchte kommen auch schon auf...ich hoffe ich verpasse den Einstieg nicht...
Reuters
Japan Ready to Intervene as Dollar Weakens Vs Yen
Monday November 11, 2:13 am ET
By Mariko Hayashibara
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese monetary authorities are expected to step into the currency market soon to try to lift the dollar against the yen so as to help protect Japanese exports, dealers and analysts say.
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They worry that a stronger yen could choke off growth in what have been the main factor leading Japan's economic recovery.
The dollar fell as low as 119.51 yen on Monday afternoon, a fresh two-month low, leaving the market nervous about when Japanese monetary authorities may intervene.
Dealers said the outlook for the dollar was increasingly bearish due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprising half-point rate cut last Wednesday, tensions surrounding Iraq and volatility in the U.S. equity market.
"The authorities seem to be seeking the best time now to intervene, as they do not want to do it in vain," said Tomoko Fujii, an economist at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney.
Although the dollar's recent fall is due chiefly to factors outside Japan, amid what Fujii called moves led by speculators, she said there were no factors to buy the Japanese currency in the longer term, with the stock market's Nikkei average showing persistent weakness.
Officials at Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) are growing tense about the yen's current level.
Its forex chief, Haruhiko Kuroda, said on Monday the yen's recent sharp rise against the dollar had been totally inappropriate, and the ministry would take necessary action on exchange rates.
Senior MOF official Zembei Mizoguchi, asked about the yen's rise against the dollar, told reporters: "Recent movements will likely be short-term."
The dollar's level against the yen is already well below Japanese exporters' expectations.
Big manufacturers used an average rate of 120.82 yen to the dollar for October-March, the second half of the business year, for their sales and profit forecasts, according to the Bank of Japan's latest "tankan" quarterly survey of corporate sentiment, issued in early October.
HOW SOON?
Toru Umemoto, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley Japan, expects the authorities to step into the market at any time.
"Taking into account the comparison of Japan-U.S. stock prices and foreign exchange levels, intervention would be well-justified at current levels of the dollar against the yen," Umemoto said.
But others said Japanese authorities may hold their fire until U.S. financial market participants return from a public holiday on Monday.
In the April-June quarter Japan spent 4.0162 trillion yen ($33.14 billion) on intervention in the currency market, the MOF said last week, the largest amount for any quarter since it started disclosing such data in 1991.
The authorities last intervened on June 28, when the dollar slipped below 119 yen.
They have kept out of the market since then, even when the dollar fell to 115.50 yen in mid-July.
"At that time, U.S. accounting scandals swirled in the market and Japan was unable to control the problem (of the yen's rise)," said Nikko Salomon's Fujii.
Analysts said the authorities may be more tense now as Japan could face further deflationary pressure amid efforts to clean up non-performing loans in the financial sector, officially estimated at 52 trillion yen ($433.7 billion).
A member of the Bank of Japan's Policy board, Teizo Taya, said on Thursday he could accept a weaker yen if deflationary pressures increased, as a rising yen would likely exacerbate such pressures.
Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, for his part, told parliament last Thursday that the government should not interfere with currency markets, and exchange rates should be determined by markets.
Whatever the intention of his words, others see the dollar continuing to fall regardless of whether Japan intervenes and buys dollars for yen.
"As long as the dollar is falling on its own bearish factors, talking down the yen or actual intervention won't work," said Kaneo Ogino, head of forex trading at HSBC in Tokyo.
Some market participants were looking at Japanese machinery orders data for September to see whether the authorities can justify intervention.
But Japan's core private-sector machinery orders, a key early gauge of capital spending, rose 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September from a month earlier.
This was much better than a median forecast for a rise of 5.2 percent in a Reuters poll of economists conducted last week and comes after a 13.6 percent fall in August.
($1=119.90 yen)
mfg
füxlein
