Banken & Finanzen in unserer Weltzone

PacWest debt rating downgraded to junk at Fitch. The move was part of Fitch's review of the debt on 14 small- and mid-sized regional lenders. Western Alliance Bancorp  got cut to BBB- from BBB+, and Trustmark Corp. (NASDAQ:TRMK) was lowered to BBB from BBB+.
seekingalpha.com/news/...t-rating-downgraded-to-junk-at-fitch

Bank Failures in Brief – Summary 2001 through 2023: There were 564 bank failures from 2001 through 2023
www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/

This recession will be milder than in 2008, but it will likely be longer because the required correction in CRE prices will be spread out over a longer period.
matttopley.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image-105.png

READOUT: Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen's Meeting with Bank Policy Institute
home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1492
Janet Yellen told bank CEOs more mergers may be necessary, sources say: During Thursday’s meeting with the CEOs of large banks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told executives that more bank mergers may be necessary as the industry continues to navigate through a crisis
edition.cnn.com/2023/05/19/investing/...nk-mergers/index.html

The "Peak Liquidity" Party Ends: Now Comes The $1.5 Trillion Liquidity Drain. There is a very simple reason why stocks melted up in recent weeks, and a very simple reason why they are set to stumble in the second half.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...omes-15-trillion-liquidity-drain

What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy? It may not be pretty
edition.cnn.com/2023/05/19/economy/...lobal-impact/index.html

CCPs mull collateral options amid debt ceiling deadlock Isda AGM: Raising haircuts and minimum maturities are among measures on the table to avoid a cliff-edge
https://www.risk.net/derivatives/7956722/...mid-debt-ceiling-deadlock
White House: "Real differences" between parties in budget talks. The White House has acknowledged “real differences” with Republicans in the budget and debt ceiling talks and warned that negotiations will be “difficult,” according to a White House official. Why it matters: While Team Biden wants to signal that a bipartisan compromise remains possible, they are preparing for a difficult road ahead.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/19/white-house-budget-talks
"They're Just Unreasonable": Debt Ceiling Talks Collapse As Republicans "Abruptly" Walk Out Of Negotiations
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/...se-republicans-abruptly-walk-out
Die zähen Verhandlungen über eine Anhebung der Schuldenobergrenze in den USA sind nach ermutigenden Signalen abrupt unterbrochen worden. Die republikanischen Unterhändler verließen die Gespräche nur etwa eine Stunde nach Beginn am Freitag, wie US-Medien berichteten.
https://www.ariva.de/news/...-us-schuldengrenze-unterbrochen-10691287

DEUTSCHER LEITINDEX

URTEIL IN DUBAI

US-Bankeinlagen und -kredite in der letzten Woche gesunken, Fed-Daten zeigen
Die Einlagen bei allen US-Geschäftsbanken sind in der vergangenen Woche gesunken, und auch die von den Banken gewährten Kredite sind insgesamt zurückgegangen, wie aus den am Freitag veröffentlichten Daten der Federal Reserve hervorgeht.
de.marketscreener.com/kurs/wahrung/...-Daten-zeigen-43905266/

Goldman Finds "Most Accurate" Reading Of Current CRE Conditions, Predicts 25% Drop In Office Building Prices  
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...t-data-predict-depth-cre-turmoil

Moody's Analytics chief Mark Zandi warned: "Lots more price declines are coming."
US CRE Prices Slide For First Time Since 2011 As 'More Downside Coming'.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...t-time-2011-more-downside-coming

How Regional Banking Consolidation Threatens Commercial Real Estate
commercialobserver.com/2023/05/...ens-commercial-real-estate/

Einlagen bei US-Banken gehen dritte Woche in Folge zurück: Die Bankenkrise läuft weiter! Daten der Federal Reserve von heute Nacht zeigen weitere Abflüsse von Einlagen bei US-Banken.
finanzmarktwelt.de/einlagen-bei-us-banken-rueckgang-271195/

Fitch Ratings completed its review of the 14 banks in its small and mid-sized regional bank peer group (Mid-Tiers). The review resulted in three downgrades and 11 affirmations. The downgrades were largely limited to a subset of banks that experienced either deposit outflows notably in excess of peers or low tangible capital levels. Fitch also revised the Rating Outlooks downward for four banks, amid a more challenging environment for regional banks and expectations of weakening economic growth.www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/...tx%5Bidio%5D=132899243

At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1: Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high. The change was most pronounced at US regional lenders, with Category IV banks – those with assets of between $100 billion and $250 billion – increasing HTM holdings to 20%
www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956739/...ecurities-ticks-up-in-q1

Jumbo Clobbered in 1Q23. Jumbo Lending Drops in First Quarter. Banks reduced their appetite for jumbos in the first quarter.
www.insidemortgagefinance.com/articles/...ps-in-first-quarter
www.insidemortgagefinance.com/articles/...va-relatively-solid

Hedge Funds’ Ultra-Bearish Oil Bets Signal US Recession Angst
   Non-commercial positions are near most bearish since 2011
   Aggressive positioning risks over-correction and volatility
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-signal-us-recession-angst
Commodity markets are pricing in a sharp recession: We look at why markets are pricing an imminent recession, the link to inflation & an ongoing banking crisis, & the impact on energy markets.
timera-energy.com/pricing-in-a-sharp-recession/

Bear (Market) Necessities: The Case for Core Fixed Income - From Sailing Through Goldilocks to Navigating Bears. Banking sector stress in March 2023 demonstrated that negative risk sentiment can shift rapidly under tighter financial conditions and in an era of social media and digital transactions.
www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/advisors/...Fixed-Income.html

Wave of Commercial Real Estate Default
www.linkedin.com/pulse/...am-ling-%E6%9E%97%E5%8D%93%E9%8B%92

Goldman Sachs: How job openings in the US cooled: There are growing signs that overheated job markets in the U.S. and other developed economies are cooling, according to Goldman Sachs Research...Based on their forecasts for continued economic expansion — but at a pace that’s below potential — our economists expect these trends to continue: Job openings are predicted to fall further and the Beveridge curve may shift inwards in most developed economies.
www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/...the-us-cooled.html

Consumer Debt Continued to Increase in Q1 2023
www.abi.org/newsroom/chart-of-the-day/...-increase-in-q1-2023
Total Consumer Debt Balance by Age, 1Q 2003-2023
www.abi.org/newsroom/chart-of-the-day/...-by-age-1q-2003-2023

Corporate bankruptcies climb year-to-date
seekingalpha.com/news/...e-tracking-toward-more-normal-levels
Big firms are filing for bankruptcy left and right — and it's just the beginning
www.businessinsider.com/...ncrease-debt-interest-rates-2023-5
Factbox: U.S. corporate bankruptcies at highest level since 2010
www.reuters.com/markets/us/...st-level-since-2010-2023-05-09/
ABI Bankruptcy Statistics - Commercial chapter 11 filings increased 32 percent
www.abi.org/newsroom/bankruptcy-statistics

DB recession probability model  is back to nearly 100% after the recent events.
www.isabelnet.com/...f-u-s-recession-over-the-next-12-months/

In the event of a recession Goldman Sachs predcits that S&P 500 earnings could fall by 10% in 2023.
www.isabelnet.com/...ine-in-ltm-sp-500-eps-during-recessions/