The New Year has begun with fresh predictions for 2022 from Ming-Chi Kuo and Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.
Gou Mingchi (Ming-Chi Kuo)
1 X Crystal-Ball - 2022 predictions Kuo and Gurman
In an official press release from Ming-Chi Kuo, officially Gou Mingchi (as noted in the graphic above), focused on Apple's AirPods. Here are the main points in the press release:
4Q21 AirPods shipment was better than expected at 27mn units (107% QoQ, 20% YoY), so we revised the AirPods shipment to 90mn in 2022 (25% YoY), which is significantly better than the market expectation of 65–75mn units.
Our latest survey indicates that AirPods have regained momentum. 4Q21 AirPods shipments grew 107% QoQ and 20% YoY to approximately 27mn units.
AirPods shipments were around 72mn units in 2021, which is about an 18% YoY decline but significantly better than the market consensus of 55–65mn units.
We believe that AirPods shipments without the component shortage will reach approximately 90mn units in 2022 (20% YoY), significantly better than the market consensus of 65–75mn units.
Q1-22 AirPods will beat the seasonality, with solid demand driving shipment almost the same amount as in Q4-21 (about 25mn units; -7% QoQ, 32% YoY). Better-than-expected AirPods shipments for two consecutive quarters proves Apple's product strategy is correct.
AirPods have shipped better than expected for two consecutive quarters, with Apple launching AirPods 3 and reducing the price of AirPods 2 in 4Q21 as the key to success.
We believe that AirPods are replicating the success of the iPhone. Although the TWS market was more competitive than ever in 2021, Apple's brand and ecosystem still have a substantial competitive advantage, as evidenced by the fact that AirPods have regained momentum by simply adjusting the product strategy without providing revolutionary innovations.
We are positive about AirPods Pro 2 demand and the future trend of integrating health management features, and we see Luxshare-ICT and Goertek as the biggest winners. We also suggest investors pay attention to the suppliers whose stock prices corrected more in 4Q21/2H21 due to weak AirPods shipments, including GigaDevice, SZS, SpeedTech, ZDT, Varta, and Amkor.
We expect Apple to launch AirPods Pro 2 in 4Q22 with new selling points, including a new form factor design, support for Apple Lossless (ALAC) format, and a charging case that can emit a sound for users to track. We are optimistic about the demand for AirPods Pro 2 and estimate shipments will reach 18–20mn units in 2022.
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