Yes there is softness on IPhone sales, yes there might be VCSEL inventory built at APPLE, but I still have this belief that Lumentum and AMS are loosing VCSEL shares to Finisar. Apple funded Finisar $390m as a PREPAYMENT of its VCSEL last December. I believe APPLE has qualified Finisar and is dropping other suppliers. IIVI knew this and moved forward with merging with Finisar last week.
At the 9/6/2018 FINISAR Q1 F2019 CC, Finisar said:
seekingalpha.com/article/...nings-call-transcript?part=single
"Capital expenditures were approximately 112.7 million in the first quarter, of which...approximately 97 million related to the uplift of building in Sherman, Texas and the delivery of capital equipments for that site...In the second quarter, for our Sherman, Texas facility, we expect approximately 35 million in capital expenditures for the uplift of the building and additional equipment"
"... We expect revenues for our second fiscal quarter of 2019 to continue to grow and be in the range of 315 million to 335 million. This is primarily due to an increase in the demand for VCSEL arrays for 3D sensing applications in connection with the expected timing of new product introductions...
In our new VCSEL laser fab in Sherman, Texas, we have completed the uplift of the building and installed a significant amount of the capital equipment for our first phase of capacity. We have begun the internal qualification for process of all the equipment and still expect to be qualified and in production using our 6-inch wafers by the end of this calendar year..."
"As we start ramping Sherman, that capacity gate comes off, but I think the market here at the -- in the very near-term is still dominated by one customer. So I think that our ability to show revenue growth is going to be in terms of increasing market share at that customer. I think we are winning and making progress in other segments of the market, but the reality is that the volumes pale in comparison to leading customer in this area. So we continue to make progress, but I think that our revenue growth, as we look out, is going to be dominated by a single customer.
"I think we're going to try, to the extent that we can, to linearly load. I think that we're going to try to plan our capacity in anticipation of the ramp that as you correctly called out is in the second half of the year. So we're going to be doing some things I think to better plan our capacity and make sure it's a little bit less lumpy. But no doubt, the demand is relatively seasonal and shipments themselves will be weighted to the middle and second half of the year."
My take is that there is a good possibility Lumentum and AMS warnings are partly due to market share loss to Finisar. Finisar Sherman plant progress might be ahead of schedule. Finisar reports FQ2 2019 on 12/6 so we will find out soon.
As for Aixtron, there could be a short term pause due to timing, but growth on VCSEL MOCVD remains robust because of the underpinning of fundamental strength. They are all Aixtron customers, and new applications are coming up that need Aixtron's machines.
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