Original-Research: q.beyond AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG

Company Name: q.beyond AG

ISIN: DE000A41YDG0

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 5.9

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q1 preview: Soft start but case remains intact; Chg.

QBY will release its Q1'26 figures next Monday. Given the still challenging

macroeconomic and geopolitical environment weighing on IT spending across

the German Mittelstand, we expect a soft quarter with both revenues and

EBITDA declining yoy. While this is unsurprising in the context of ongoing

demand headwinds and planned investment activity, we continue to view the FY

targets as achievable.

Revenue decline driven by Managed Services base effect. Q1 revenues are set

to decline 4.5% yoy to EUR 44.3m (eNuW), primarily driven by the absence of

around EUR 3m in one-time license revenues still booked in Q1/25 prior to the

billing model transition. Organically, the MS segment continues to face

headwinds from a cautious IT spending environment, with long-duration

contract closures remaining delayed and pricing adjustments still required

in parts of the portfolio. The Consulting segment should partially offset

this, with low single-digit yoy growth expected (eNuW: 2%), supported by

continued utilization improvements and a near- and off-shoring ratio now at

20% (vs 3% in FY23), a structural margin tailwind set to continue toward the

mid-term target of 30%.

EBITDA step-back reflects investment phase. We estimate Q1 EBITDA of EUR 1.7m

(Q1'25: EUR 2.3m), implying a margin of 3.8%. Gross profit will be burdened

by the weaker MS revenue development. Ongoing investments in agentic AI

capabilities running ahead of corresponding revenues are seen to be a

further temporary margin drag. Additionally, M&A-related legal and advisory

costs may have weighed on opex, as management is actively progressing on

inorganic growth opportunities. Mind you, we expect at least one acquisition

to be announced in FY26 (eNuW), with healthcare and energy as the key target

verticals.

Recovery path and investment case intact. Despite the expected Q1 softness,

we expect a meaningful improvement through the year, driven by progressive

data center capacity monetization, early agentic AI revenue contributions

and a continuing improvement in the delivery mix. Management's FY26 guidance

of EUR 182-190m in sales (eNuW: EUR 183m) and EUR 10-16m in EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 11.2m)

should remain unchanged, with the lower end representing a macro stress

scenario, in our view. With 72% recurring revenues, long contract durations

of 3-5 years, a net cash position of EUR 35m and an undemanding valuation of

5x FY26e EV/EBITDA, underpin the attractiveness of QBY.

The stock hence remains a BUY with a new PT of EUR 5.90 based on DCF. Stock is

removed from our NuWays Alpha List due to the continued short-term

headwinds.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=30210e54fc47ad482b42e192b28e5370

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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2322080 06.05.2026 CET/CEST

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