Cost work done, growth is next, chg.

Recently, NAGA published its audited FY25 financial statements, confirming group revenues of € 62.4m (FY24: € 63.2m), broadly in line with the preliminary figures. FX-adj. revenue growth stood at 3.5% yoy, pointing to a more resilient underlying development than the reported top-line suggests. EBITDA came in at € 3.7m (FY24: € 9.0m) 12% above the preliminary figure.

The audited FY25 figures highlight progress in cost and marketing efficiency. Most relevant is the improvement in customer acquisition, with marketing spend up 15.6% yoy, new funded accounts up 37.5% and CAC down 16.5%. This links directly to the Q1 26 pattern, where a 9.7pp yoy EBITDA margin improvement was accompanied by healthier client KPIs, including higher trading volumes, stronger activity, rising net deposits and lower withdrawals. In our view, these data points suggest that the leaner setup is increasingly translating into better operating quality.

FY26 guidance remains at € 68-75m revenues and € 10-15m EBITDA. At the lower end, this implies c. 16% yoy revenue growth for the remaining nine months, requiring a visible acceleration from the Q1 run-rate. The implied EBITDA increase for the remaining nine months is c. 189% yoy, which looks demanding but is flattered by a low prior-year base. A weaker EUR could provide some tailwind to reported revenue growth over the coming quarters. Despite an encouraging Q1 exit rate, we remain conservatively below guidance with our FY26 estimates of € 64.4m revenues and € 9.0m EBITDA, pending further visibility on the sales improvement.

Separately, NAGA received a MiCA authorization from the CySEC, allowing it to provide regulated crypto-asset services across the EU under the bloc’s harmonized crypto framework. This strengthens the regulatory foundation of its crypto offering and supports the integration of digital assets into NAGA ONE, the group’s SuperApp for payments, investing and trading. Near term, the market backdrop remains less supportive, with crypto prices under pressure and volatility low by historical standards (source: Deribit), limiting trading activity and monetization. We therefore see MiCA mainly as a strategic milestone rather than an immediate earnings driver. In a more normalized crypto market, the license should help NAGA scale its crypto services in Europe.

In sum, NAGA is visibly operating with a more efficient structure, improved profitability and better client KPIs. High management ownership of c. 43% provides shareholder alignment, while ongoing product improvements, including NAGA ONE, AI-supported processes and the regulated crypto layer under MiCA, should strengthen the platform proposition. Improved revenue growth could be the next catalyst, in our view. With the cost base now more efficient, even moderate sales acceleration should translate more visibly into earnings, provided cost discipline is maintained. This leaves NAGA with a more scalable setup and a clearer path towards stronger profitability.

BUY with a PT of € 7.30 (old: € 9.50), based on an overhauled DCF, reflecting more conservative mid-term growth assumptions following analyst change.