THE Rudd Government may soon be facing the first big challenge to its vaunted China expertise - a counter-bid from China's steel mills for Rio Tinto.
In a sign that mining giant BHP Billiton (bhp.ASX:Quote,News) has failed to reassure its Chinese steel customers that its proposed $160 billion takeover of Rio (rio.ASX:Quote,News) is not a threat, Xu Lejiang, president of the country's biggest steel maker, Baosteel, reportedly said a counter bid was being actively considered.
But amid conflicting signals out of China, the prospect of the Chinese steel industry launching a full counter-bid appears remote, given the scale of the bid, the complexity of the business and likely national-interest concerns in Canberra.
"My own view is that the talk of potential Chinese interest is part of a guerilla campaign against the bid and isn't likely to amount to a serious proposition," HSBC chief economist and former Keating adviser John Edwards said.
BHP in sight
Rumours of a Chinese bid have previously been denied by China Development Bank, then by China Investment Corp, the new sovereign wealth fund with $US200 billion at its disposal.
More realistically, the Chinese might be seeking to scare off BHP. More worryingly for both BHP and Rio, which has aggressively rebuffed BHP's bid, the Chinese may also consider a blocking stake in Rio. Such a poison pill could ward off BHP and be a weight on Rio's share price.
Speaking to China's 21st Century Business Herald, Baosteel's Mr Xu said: "We are still studying the plan and are discussing how to launch a bid. If you ask how strong the possibility is, it'squite strong. But of course, there are other possible responses as well."
Mr Xu said he anticipated having to pay well over the BHP offer price. "I'm afraid $US200 billion won't be enough," he said.
When asked about Xu's comments, the China Iron & Steel Association Vice Secretary General Qi Xiangdong said the industry body is "closely watching" BHP's bid for Rio.
Joint bid considered
An executive at Chinese steel maker Shougang, Chen Hanyu, was also quoted by Bloomberg as saying a bid was being discussed. "A few of the biggest steel makers in China and the central Government may team up for the bid," he said.
But another Shougang executive later denied the report, saying Mr Chen had been misquoted and was not authorised to talk to the media.
"Shougang isn't involved in and will not be involved in any joint bid for Rio Tinto," Mr Chen's boss, Tan Yixin, told Reuters.
The Chinese Government and steel industry are worried that a combined BHP-Rio would have too much bargaining power on iron ore prices, which have risen 140 per cent in the past five years.
Combined, BHP and Rio would control 38 per cent of the world's seaborne trade in iron ore, in line with leading producer, Brazil's CVRD.
The Chinese Government, ultimate owner of almost every significant company in the sector, has co-ordinated another meeting to discuss options through its National Development and Reform Commission.
China has immense foreign reserves - about $US1.4 trillion - but the amount required to trump BHP's bid for Rio would make a significant dent in them.
The market capitalisation of the biggest mill, Baosteel, is only about $US40 billion ($45.7 billion).
The Chinese Government has been cautious about provoking international controversy about such bids, after a political storm in the US forced China's chief oil company to abandon a $US18.5 billion bid for US oil major Unocal two years ago.
In 2001, the Howard government used its "national interest" powers to block a bid by Shell for Woodside.
Mr Edwards said he believed Canberra would be unlikely to reject a Chinese-backed bid for Rio simply on principle. But he said strict conditions, including guranteed transparency on iron ore pricing, could prove too onerous for a bid led by the Chinese steel industry.
Separately, Rio's message that BHP's informal three-for-one offer is too cheap and not worth considering has resonated with analysts, who have upgraded their valuations.
Austock resources analyst Tim Gerrard has substantially upgraded his valuation on Rio and suggested BHP would have to raise its offer to 3.9 shares-for-one to get Rio to the negotiating table.
And beyond that, BHP may have to pay an additional $20 a share to get Rio to agree a deal, equivalent to an overall bid price of around $188 a share.
That is about double where Rio shares were trading just two months ago, and compares with its close yesterday at $143.10 a share, a 10 per cent premium to the implied value of BHP's offer.
Rio shares were down 2.6 per cent on the back of lower metal prices overnight, with speculation of China intervening to block BHP.
BHP was helped by higher oil prices to be relatively unscathed, losing 10c to $43.10.
"The BHP proposal has acted as the catalyst for the true value of Rio's assets to be recognised," Mr Gerrard said.
While BHP shares were trading at a 15.8 per cent premium to his revised net present valuation, the market wasn't yet factoring in any premium to Rio shares, based on his new valuation on Rio of $144.60 a share.
That is an increase of 45 per cent on his previous valuation. He increased his valuation on BHP by 23 per cent to $37.10 a share.
But the BHP camp has previously dismissed suggestions that the market has been undervaluing Rio, arguing that it is a highly traded and well analysed stock.
Last week, Rio boss Tom Albanese set out an aggressive growth plan for the company, with plans to ramp up iron ore output. He also revealed that growth projects were bigger than previously thought.
Rio also increased the anticipated savings from the takeover of Canada's Alcan by 50 per cent to $US940 million.