Underestimated decade of growth ahead, chg., PT up

Following the update and recent news, we now expect a 20% sales CAGR through 2030e, with elevated growth rates likely to persist into the late 2030s (eNuW). In addition, EBIT margins are set to rise to >9% by 2028e, thanks to an improving mix towards defence, which is carrying structurally higher margins.

The above is based on noticeable space budget (EU/ESA/national) increases and OHB’s strong position on the key growth categories: observation, navigation and transportation. Moreover, a clear edge is OHB’s positioning as the only fully German space OEM.

The catalysts are lined up. Next to first big ticket orders expected for H2 ‘26 related to the € 35bn budget promised by Germany’s defence minister, OHB’s investment into Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA, 55.1% ownership, at equity) could reach a milestone – its first test launch, scheduled this summer. RFA is industrialized from the outset, utilising the existing setup of automotive suppliers rather than undergoing complete and costly in-house manufacturing. It is also the only European company employing staged combustion engines, the high-end standard for high-performance launch systems. This creates a clear technological edge in European launch capabilities. A successful launch should act as an additional value catalyst. A potential SpaceX IPO later this year is seen as another positive trigger, resetting how markets value space assets. Meanwhile, yesterday, US-based Blue Origin announced yet another significant project containing 5,408 optically interconnected satellites for enterprise and government communication, underscoring that the global race for space dominance is accelerating.

Despite the recent share price rally at OHB, valuations have not run hot, thanks to rising mid-term earnings projections. In fact, at the current market cap OHB would already trade at a discount to its own historic EV/EBIT by 2028e, albeit with an excellent sales and margin momentum, a record backlog coverage and book-to-bill >2x, all projected for 2028e (eNuW).

BUY, new PT € 202 (old: € 142), based on DCF.