Driving diversification

The first raffle is structured with 250,000 tickets at € 9.90, implying c. € 2.5m billings and c. € 1.1m revenue potential (eNuW, see p.2 for details), which remains modest in isolation. The attraction lies in ZEAL’s ability to scale the format over time. In our medium-term base case, we assume 300,000 tickets and c. € 1.3m revenue per draw at full sell-through. This would translate into c. € 11.5m revenue at 10 annual draws and 90% sell-through, equivalent to c. 5% of 2026e group sales. We therefore see Traumautoverlosung as an incremental growth driver (partly reflected in estimates).

A recent whitepaper on the UK prize draw market offers a useful external read-across for this strategy (source: Rokker, iGB):

• Younger demographics. The format is more lifestyle- and aspiration-driven than the classic lottery product and appears well suited to reach younger customer groups (incl. Gen Z and millennials).

• Appealing customer acquisition costs. Low ticket prices and emotionally strong prizes should support conversion, although transferability to ZEAL seems still limited at this stage, in our view.

Q1 26 preview: ZEAL is due to report Q1 on 6 May (see p.2 for details). We expect a financially unexciting quarter, driven by the absence of peak jackpots in Lotto and EJ. Still, sales look set to improve 8% yoy to € 55.3m (broadly stable qoq), thanks to a growing monthly active user base. EBITDA is expected to decline 15% yoy to € 15.1m (broadly stable qoq), reflecting a demanding comp, as Q1 25 still benefited from active customer cohorts acquired in Q4 24, an unusually strong jackpot quarter. Overall, we would not overinterpret Q1, as the quarter says little about ZEAL’s full earnings power. It does, however, show that the business remains sequentially stable even in an unfavourable jackpot environment, while still funding new growth initiatives such as Traumautoverlosung.

BUY, PT € 80, based on DCF. - continued -