Teil 1 des Beitrages in The Nation vom 30.1.20001 nachdem Soros seinen Besuch in Bangkok gestern gecancelt hat wegen des lauten Protestes.Es gab sogar Leute,die ihn verklagen wollten,weil er dem Land erheblichen Schaden zugefügt habe im Jahr 1997 und hierauf Gefängnis steht nach thailändischem Recht.Es musste mit gewalttätigen Ausschreitungen gerechnet werden.Leider auf englisch.
Soros' part in the economic crisis
Thanong Khanthong investigates George Soros' involvement in the 1997 baht crisis.
In August 1997, a month after the baht collapsed, leading to the Asian crisis, a Thai diplomat attached to the United Nations bumped into George Soros at a party in New York. They talked about the ailing Thai economy - and the sick baht.
Soros told the diplomat that it should have been apparent to any student of the Thai economy for six or seven months that the Thai authorities would inevitably have to devalue the baht.
By pegging the baht to the dollar, Thai authorities encouraged banks and big corporates to borrow US dollars unhedged. The dollar was converted into baht for domestic lending, leading to a credit boom and an economic bubble. With an economic slowdown in Japan and a rising US dollar, trade and capital accounts in Thailand had deteriorated. The baht became unstable, eventually leading to the economic bubble bursting.
Soros admitted to speculating on the baht in forward markets, losing money in the first round but taking profits later. Soros would not reveal the size of his speculation or the profit he made.
But a former Bank of Thailand official overheard talk in the financial markets that the Quantum Fund used some US$700 million (Bt29.7 billion) from its total war chest of $12 billion against the baht. Soros' top aides were Stan Druckenmiller and Rodney Jones.
But the central bank's real enemy No 1 during the attacks was Julian Robertson and his Tiger Fund, which bet $3 billion against the baht.
His colleagues were Bruce Kovner and Lee Cooperman. Other operations and dealers speculating in the market included Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, and BZW. Bandid Nijatha, the then director of the Bank of Thailand's Banking Department, also identified Morgan Stanley as getting involved.
During the conversation with the Thai diplomat, Soros expressed his sympathy for the state of Thailand's economy and the hardship being faced by its people. For this reason, he said he had refrained from making any public statements over his speculation.
"But I would not have been able to speculate [against the baht] if the Thai economy or its financial system were not in such bad shape," he said.
Soros argued that hedge funds did not start the crisis, although they played a role in the turmoil.
"If a trend is unsustainable, it is surely better if it is reversed sooner rather than later," he said in his latest book, Open Society: Reforming Global Capitalism.
"For instance, by selling the Thai baht short in January 1997, the Quantum Fund managed by my investment company sent a market signal that the baht may be overvalued. Had the authorities responded to the depletion of their reserves, the adjustment would have occurred sooner and been less painful. But the authorities allowed their reserves to run down; the break, when it came, was catastrophic."
The Thai authorities fiercely defended the baht for fears that a devaluation would destroy the balance sheets of the country's banks and corporates. Thailand's external debt at that time stood at $100 billion. Every Bt1 devaluation would add Bt100 billion to that debt.
The central bank fought the currency war until they had spent all the country's foreign exchange reserves - more than $30 billion in six months. The battle climaxed in mid-May 1997 when on the 14th speculators alone bet $10 billion against the baht, trying to destroy the currency peg system and devalue it.
The following day Thai authorities played hardball by cutting off the links between offshore and onshore baht markets. Speculators got burnt because they could not get hold onto the baht to ease their positions. Baht interest rates in the offshore market shot up 3,000 per cent in one day.
But Soros' fund would not be affected significantly since it had sold the baht short in the forward market, with a maturity of six months and one year.
Shortly after the creation of a two-tier currency system, Druckenmiller came out to admit that his fund's baht speculation backfired.
"They [central bank officials] kicked our butts and they've taken a lot of profit we might have had," he told the International Herald Tribune then. "They did a masterful job of squeezing us out."
Druckenmiller, who must have profited handsomely from his foray into the Asia turmoil, became one of America's major philanthropists in 1997, donating $36 million to Bowdon College in Maine, his alma mater.
But the name of Soros, who gave Russia $530 million and participated in other philanthropist projects during that time, would not visit Thailand until June 23, 1997. The Nation broke the story about his speculative activities on its front page.
"The Bank of Thailand would like to turn the tables on him - and hurt him with the creation of the two-tier currency system," it reported.
But inside the central bank's headquarters, the officials were very nervous, knowing that they were inching closer to the abyss after they had spent all the foreign exchange reserves defending the baht. But their poker faces held firm.
Tomorrow: A secret attempt to arrange a ceasefire with Soros.
Teil 2 vom 31.1.2001
Party politics prevented truce in baht war with Soros
Thanong Khanthong describes an attempt to negotiate a ceasefire with George Soros at the height of the battle over the baht in 1997. Second of a two-part series.
In late May 1997, Rerngchai Marakanond, then the governor of the Bank of Thailand, and his deputy, Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, paid a visit to Amnuay Viravan, then finance minister, to brief him on the latest situation concerning financial institutions and foreign-exchange reserves.
Amnuay told them he had met Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his finance minister Anwar Ibrahim. The Malaysian leaders told Amnuay about their experience in dealing with financier George Soros, who had attacked the ringgit.
With the strong support of the prime minister, Anwar was able to reach a deal with Soros, who sold dollars back to the Malaysia in return for getting ringgit to settle his positions.
Anwar advised Amnuay that it would be better to seek a private-sector representative to negotiate with Soros and other hedge fund managers, so that there would be no obligations until a final deal was cut.
At the time, the Thai central bank had locked horns with hedge fund managers after the Thai authorities played hardball by closing down the foreign-exchange swap markets.
The move was aimed at preventing hedge fund managers or speculators from having baht to unwind their positions. If the hedge funds had sold the baht short, they would need to borrow the baht to deliver to their counterparts.
Rerngchai went back to consider the ceasefire. He talked it over with Amnuay again and agreed to approach Olarn Chaipravat, then the president of Siam Commercial Bank, to ask him to become the emissary.
The strategy was that Olarn would head the negotiating team, which could offer Soros the baht at Bt27 to the dollar so that the international financier could unwind his position and agree, on gentlemen's terms, not to turn around and attack the baht again. Soros' cost in attacking the baht was slightly higher than Bt26.
Soros was also making contacts for a ceasefire deal through JP Morgan.
He was losing money on his short-term positions, which were not covered, but subsequently would make money on his medium-term positions. In general he was not in big trouble, unlike other speculators who had attacked the baht in the spot market and were trapped in the guillotine of the two-tier currency system. (The two-tier system made it impossible for speculators to attack the baht from offshore.)
Soros' position was largely medium-term, which would be matured in six months. That was the big chunk of the attack. Rerngchai realised that come August, the Bank of Thailand would not have the dollars on hand to deliver to the speculators, as obligated by the currency swaps.
But Soros also realised that the carry-over, or interest, cost of his baht positions would not be worthwhile due to the abnormally high interest rates on the baht.
Rerngchai reached a broad agreement with his aides that the Bank of Thailand would settle only half of its US$14.8 billion in offshore swap positions, which confronted the speculators face to face.
Paiboon Kittisrikangwarn, then the central bank's chief trader, received several phone calls from speculators through local banks asking for a truce. But his reaction was stern. He would not meet the speculators, but he agreed to cut a deal at an exchange rate of Bt23 to the dollar or the forward rate of 9 per cent.
"Take it or leave it," he said.
The speculators wanted Bt26, meaning that the deal would have left them with a loss of Bt3 for every dollar. The speculators were fuming with rage.
It was evident that strong political backup was necessary if this mission was to be successful. When Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, then prime minister, was informed about this plan to talk it out with Soros, Chavalit agreed.
His tone was conciliatory. "It's alright. Let's do it. I am ready to help," he said.
But the political situation at that time was highly precarious. Engaging in this kind of clandestine operation required a stable administration; otherwise, the slightest jab by the opposition could bring down the government. In the meantime, rumours of ceasefire negotiations with Soros quickly became widespread.
Euromoney wrote in its September 1997 issue: "Undeterred by the freeze, those who needed baht offshore to cover short positions became more inventive. One particular exposed speculator - local gossip-mongers reckon it was George Soros - went cap in hand to the central bank to ask for baht and offered to play the bank's game in return by easing off hammering the currency. The Bank of Thailand declined the offer."
In the end, negotiations with Soros would never take place because the finance minister lacked the political back up. Amnuay was about to fall victim to coalition politics, engineered by the Chat Pattana, which wanted to take over economic management from the New Aspiration Party.
In early June Arminio Fraga, a former deputy governor of the central bank of Brazil, who worked for Soros, contacted the Bank of Thailand to cut a deal. Fraga, who would be appointed his country's central bank governor a year later to save the Brazilian real, was then the managing director of Soros Fund Management.
Fraga, who frequently visited Bangkok to investigate the business climate, came over to talk about the possibility of ending the baht war.
But after Amnuay's resignation in late June, he sensed victory. When one of the central bank officials tried to call him to reach a settlement, he said: "I think we can wait a little bit more".
With that sentence ringing in his ear, Rerngchai realised that the Bank of Thailand was about to lose the currency war.
The first part appeared on B1 of yesterday's edition.
LAST MODIFIED: Tuesday, 30-Jan-01 11:16:28 EST
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