BEA Systems (BEAS-$50 13/16-Cap $22B–Strong Buy)
Q4:FY01 Earnings Preview FY01E $0.24, FY02E $0.37
· BEAS will report Q4:FY01 results on Thursday 2/22 at 5 PM EST, dial in (877) 282-0743.
Replay number is (888) 266-2086, passcode 4983461.
· We believe BEAS will exceed our estimates of $252 million and $0.09, which represent YoY
growth of 69% and 80%, respectively. Our license revenue estimate is $148 million, which
represents 16% sequential and 58% YoY growth. Street EPS consensus is $0.09.
· The Street will be focused on i) Q4:FY01 sequential license revenue growth vs. 23% in
Q3:FY01 and 22% in Q2:FY01, ii) key WebLogic metrics (overall revenue contribution,
download statistics, and ASPs), iii) large deals/ELAs closed in quarter, iv) new WebLogic
Commerce and Personalization Server customer adds, v) DSO at or below low/mid 80 day
target range, vi) OM expansion (goal is 20% near-term and 30% in 3-5 years), vii) SI partner
adds and trained consultant metrics, and viii) magnitude of estimate revisions in light of IT
spending environment in H1:01.
· Catalysts for the stock include rumored deal with NTT DoCoMo, large/ELA WebLogic
transactions, highly visible competitive wins, meaningful growth in sales of newer BEAS
products (including Commerce & Personalization Server, WebLogic Collaborate), and
increased indirect and influenced revenue from SI partners.
· Reiterate STRONG BUY with price target of $85, which implies 67% upside from current
levels. Given the Company’s excellent fundamentals and solid market leadership position,
we consider BEAS a core infrastructure software holding over the short and medium term.
Recent ~20% pullback over the past two weeks represents an excellent buying opportunity.
levels and reiterate STRONG BUY.
Was ist mit dem Deal mit NTT DOCOMO?