WEEK AHEAD
Waiting for the FOMC
Friday, Mar. 9, 2001 11:30 PDT
By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., America-iNvest.com
The mid-month economic data releases roll in this week, but the reports are unlikely
to introduce any new information. We know the manufacturing sector is weak. We
know that consumer spending growth is sluggish. Housing starts will tell us about
last month's weather. The markets may respond to surprises in these data, but the
focus will be on next week's Fed policy meeting.
What to look for this week:
MONDAY
No significant economic data releases.
TUESDAY
Retail Sales (February) — Unit sales of motor vehicles rose again last month,
improving on January's rebound (late 4Q weakness may have been weather-related).
Chain-store sales were relatively lackluster in February, helped somewhat by steep
discounting of winter merchandise. Higher energy costs have also limited consumer
purchasing power. Discount stores fared better, suggesting that consumers are still
price sensitive.
WEDNESDAY
Business Inventories (January) — Factory inventories rose 0.7% in January,
suggesting that the manufacturing correction had yet to run its course in early 2001,
though activity may have bottomed out in February.
THURSDAY
Jobless Claims (week ending March 9) — Claims were up moderately in the two
previous weeks, but it remains unclear whether this is a seasonal adjustment quirk
or a trend toward weaker labor market conditions. The labor market was
exceptionally tight at this time last year.
Import / Export Prices (February) — Petroleum prices retreated in December and
January. However, higher prices for natural gas boosted the ex-petroleum index.
Ex-gas and oil, there have been few signs of inflationary pressure from import prices.
Current Account (4Q00) — The trade deficit in goods and services (which accounts
for the vast majority of the current account deficit) widened further in the fourth
quarter and amounts to nearly 5% of GDP. The deficit should decline somewhat as
the U.S. economy slows, but improvement may be slow going for a while.
Philadelphia Fed Index (March) — The Philly Fed survey reflected widespread
weakness in manufacturing last month, but 6-month expectations turned slightly
positive. The March report should show less of a decline.
FRIDAY
Producer Prices (February) — The PPI spurted higher in January, boosted by
increases in cigarettes, passenger cars, and natural gas — none of which signaled
an increase in the underlying inflation rate. Such increases tend to unwind, leading
to more muted increases in the overall index. Excluding food and energy, the price
indexes for intermediate goods and crude materials have been rather mild,
suggesting no inflation "in the pipeline."
Housing Starts (February) — Mild weather and hefty seasonal adjustment boosted
start and permit data in January. February weather was more of a mixed bag, which
should lead to a drop in activity, though the levels ought to have remained relatively
strong by historical standards. Lower mortgage rates are helping the housing sector
to remain in good shape.
Industrial Production (February) — January saw a weather-related bounce, but
not enough to offset overall weakness in manufacturing output. "Old economy"
production has declined and technology output growth has been cut in half (relative
to the first half of last year). Weakness appears to have continued into February, but
some improvement may be likely in March.
Early Outlook For Next Week
The Fed Policy Meeting (Tuesday) will be the focus. The markets are expecting
another half-point cut in short-term interest rates and Fed officials have not worked to
offset that expectation. What matters is the policy statement. Consumer Prices
(Wednesday) should appear more favorable than they did in January.
Coming Events and Data Releases
April 2 -- NAPM Manufacturing (March)
April 6 -- Employment Report (March)
April 12 -- Producer Prices (March)
April 13 -- Good Friday Holiday (markets closed)
May 15 -- FOMC Meeting
June 26/27 -- FOMC Meeting
Gruß Dampf
Waiting for the FOMC
Friday, Mar. 9, 2001 11:30 PDT
By Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., America-iNvest.com
The mid-month economic data releases roll in this week, but the reports are unlikely
to introduce any new information. We know the manufacturing sector is weak. We
know that consumer spending growth is sluggish. Housing starts will tell us about
last month's weather. The markets may respond to surprises in these data, but the
focus will be on next week's Fed policy meeting.
What to look for this week:
MONDAY
No significant economic data releases.
TUESDAY
Retail Sales (February) — Unit sales of motor vehicles rose again last month,
improving on January's rebound (late 4Q weakness may have been weather-related).
Chain-store sales were relatively lackluster in February, helped somewhat by steep
discounting of winter merchandise. Higher energy costs have also limited consumer
purchasing power. Discount stores fared better, suggesting that consumers are still
price sensitive.
WEDNESDAY
Business Inventories (January) — Factory inventories rose 0.7% in January,
suggesting that the manufacturing correction had yet to run its course in early 2001,
though activity may have bottomed out in February.
THURSDAY
Jobless Claims (week ending March 9) — Claims were up moderately in the two
previous weeks, but it remains unclear whether this is a seasonal adjustment quirk
or a trend toward weaker labor market conditions. The labor market was
exceptionally tight at this time last year.
Import / Export Prices (February) — Petroleum prices retreated in December and
January. However, higher prices for natural gas boosted the ex-petroleum index.
Ex-gas and oil, there have been few signs of inflationary pressure from import prices.
Current Account (4Q00) — The trade deficit in goods and services (which accounts
for the vast majority of the current account deficit) widened further in the fourth
quarter and amounts to nearly 5% of GDP. The deficit should decline somewhat as
the U.S. economy slows, but improvement may be slow going for a while.
Philadelphia Fed Index (March) — The Philly Fed survey reflected widespread
weakness in manufacturing last month, but 6-month expectations turned slightly
positive. The March report should show less of a decline.
FRIDAY
Producer Prices (February) — The PPI spurted higher in January, boosted by
increases in cigarettes, passenger cars, and natural gas — none of which signaled
an increase in the underlying inflation rate. Such increases tend to unwind, leading
to more muted increases in the overall index. Excluding food and energy, the price
indexes for intermediate goods and crude materials have been rather mild,
suggesting no inflation "in the pipeline."
Housing Starts (February) — Mild weather and hefty seasonal adjustment boosted
start and permit data in January. February weather was more of a mixed bag, which
should lead to a drop in activity, though the levels ought to have remained relatively
strong by historical standards. Lower mortgage rates are helping the housing sector
to remain in good shape.
Industrial Production (February) — January saw a weather-related bounce, but
not enough to offset overall weakness in manufacturing output. "Old economy"
production has declined and technology output growth has been cut in half (relative
to the first half of last year). Weakness appears to have continued into February, but
some improvement may be likely in March.
Early Outlook For Next Week
The Fed Policy Meeting (Tuesday) will be the focus. The markets are expecting
another half-point cut in short-term interest rates and Fed officials have not worked to
offset that expectation. What matters is the policy statement. Consumer Prices
(Wednesday) should appear more favorable than they did in January.
Coming Events and Data Releases
April 2 -- NAPM Manufacturing (March)
April 6 -- Employment Report (March)
April 12 -- Producer Prices (March)
April 13 -- Good Friday Holiday (markets closed)
May 15 -- FOMC Meeting
June 26/27 -- FOMC Meeting
Gruß Dampf
