similar to Tuesday's action with continued mixed indicators and
an overall confusing looking tape. This is no big deal as this
tends to happen during certain holiday periods when we are near
the beginning of the month. Factor in the very recent interest
not be surprised by this action.The key is to not make a big deal
out of the confusion and just let it pass on by. An important
aspect of really going PRO in the S&P500 futures trading is to BE
ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THIS ACTION FOR WHAT IT IS and just let it be.
"have to figure out the market and make a trade". Not necessary.
There will be plenty of very clear days for catching the TCF
Trade Setups like we have seen the past 4 sessions since starting
this service at 21st Century Futures.
Right now I want to urge CAUTION for this week as volume is going
to start drying up today. Tomorrow is a short day and we will be
putting out an ABREVIATED MORNING CALL.
The next 3 months are historically a weak period for trading. As
we speak large portfolio managers are starting to pack to visit
their summer vacation homes and very little new buying will take
place. It's mostly about maintaining their large portfolios on a
steady course while they are vacationing.In spite of this we do
have an upward target goal of 1002.00 on the S&P500 and there is
even a shot it could get filled today or tomorrow. We do have
some trading ideas for you for today but be very cautious that
the exact TCF setups are occurring and don't be too anxious to
trade if all the components are not falling into place.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good possibility
that if our Headline Call is going to pan out that we will get
another BreakOut Buy cooking today. As per the rules of the set
up at the time of the B/O we would need to see the Dow flat
(being up +50 or less) with the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq
composite index) moving ahead being up +12-15 or more. If along
with this setup we get the TRIN under .80 and the VIX lower
ideally -.50 or more then we could break out AGAIN with a bullish
move.
If the BreakOut is the first Hour One pivot hit after the first
hour has transpired and the above bullish B/O scenario IS NOT
OCCURING then we can look to sell the B/O. Again, watch out
specifically for today only for confusing or mixed High Five
indicators that are not supporting the trade. The riggers like
to play tricks with the markets especially during these holiday
periods keeping the market very unappealing while they smoke em'
up higher.
If we do get a lower opening and move lower then let's look to
Buy the B/D of the first hour low if that is the first Hour One
pivot hit. Just be sure we are not in the middle of a Bear Ugly
situation with the markets down hard on some bad news and the
High Five giving us Bear Ugly readings. We would want to short
that B/D action if that was occurring but it is not expected
today.
Value Area: 961.00 - 973.50
We are closing substantially above the Value Area on Tuesday
which strengthens the bullish scenario at least for today. Watch
to see that the prices will find support at the top of the VA on
any pullbacks early today. Compare this number with the B/D and
if we see trade occuring in this zone it could be a buy area if
the correlation is good after the first hour is complete.
Buy Pivot Target: 967.00 - 968.00
No trade at this pivot today. This is near the center of the
Value Area and should provide additional support if the top of
the VA does not entirely hold up the selling.
Sell Pivot Target: 988.75 - 987.75
No trade at this pivot today. Because our Headline Call is
looking for a "sneak up type rally" we could see prices push
above this number in a slow, grinding fashion which can be really
frustrating if you are trying to short it. Let's leave this pivot
alone for today and observe the reaction to the +4.25 stop/pivot
at 993.00.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 983.90
We are now on CROSSOVER ALERT with the Pit Bull. What this
means is that we need to be very vigilant in observing if we are
going to blow through the 10 Day MA to the upside or hit a brick
wall when we approach it. If we are getting a strong CROSSOVER
then often prices will leap across it to the upside and leave
this pivot in the dust. So for today we are going to be watching
carefully the reaction to this 984.00 price area for sure.
Zurück
Werbung
